Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Open Results: Finishes at The Open Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club & Royal Troon Golf Club
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (59), PUTT (84), BOB 175200 (78)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, APP 150175, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/4/22/2
Open Results: 4/50/41/21/26/2/MC/44/MC/44
Comp Results: 41/50/MC
Insights: Fitzy’s incredible year continues, as he comes into this event — played in his homeland — in as good of form as anyone. His current run features three Top-4 finishes in his last four events, as well as two other Top-25 finishes in six of his last eight events, and that’s on top of wins at RBC Heritage, Valspar and Zurich (if you count the Zurich). Furthermore, he’s been absolutely striping the ball, gaining significantly on Approach in every event since the API in early March. Not to mention, he’s been pretty much equally as good around the greens. In fact, last week’s Scottish Open was the first event he lost strokes ARG since Pebbly Beach in mid-February, and he still finished T3. On the greens, Fitz seems to love putting on these fescue surfaces, which is a good thing considering this is probably the only area that makes you nervous backing him. All things considered, the price is extremely fair given how hot this guy’s game is. -S
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (78), APP 175200 (85), PROX (117)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/32/12/7
Open Results: 7/MC/6/3/46/MC/2/4/5/1/MC/60/25/3/47/42
Comp Results: 1/5/6/60/MC
Insights: Rory looks primed for another run at the Claret Jug. After using the Scottish Open as preparation, he closed with a brilliant 64 and finished T7 despite a poor Saturday where he lost nearly three strokes on approach. Outside of that round, the game looked exactly where it needs to be, and the extra prep—including a practice round at Royal Birkdale with Sir Nick Faldo weeks before the championship—only adds confidence. His Open résumé speaks for itself with eight top-10 finishes, including seven since his 2014 victory, and few players consistently peak for majors like Rory. The limited schedule continues to suit him, and while he doesn’t always grade perfectly in my model due to fewer starts, he’s firmly back near the top this week. I said a few weeks ago that if I had to pick the next major winner between Rory and Scottie, it was Rory without hesitation, and nothing has changed. Royal Birkdale is one of his favorite Open venues, the links form is undeniable, and after finishing 15-under over three rounds in Scotland, this feels like the ideal setup to contend for a second Claret Jug. At +800, he’s my clear favorite entering the week. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +750
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (82), PROX (103), BOB 175200 (101)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/2/4/12
Open Results: 1/7/23/21/8
Comp Results: 7/23
Insights: Well, it happened. Scottie Scheffler missed the cut in a professional golf tournament for the first time since the Fed-Ex St. Jude in August of 2022. Nearly four years he went without missing a cut; what a remarkable run for the World #1. The cut highlights some weird dynamics around Scottie’s profile his year. It’s not that he’s playing poorly — it’s somewhat impossible to argue that for someone that’s finished T4 or better in six of his last nine events — but last year’s Open champion hasn’t had that clutch factor about him this year, specifically on Sundays, and he hasn’t really been passing the eye test either. It seems that there’s one area or one round holding him back every time he’s in serious contention. That said, although not as elite across the board as he was earlier this year and late last year, his metrics are still where you want them to be. He’s sitting Top 15 in this field in a majority of key stats this week, and his ball-striking is still very controlled, concise and dependable. Hitting fairways is going to be key for Scottie’s success this week. He’s 11th in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds, so there shouldn’t be an issue there, but if one creeps up, he ranks just 83rd in Rough Proximity in that time. All things considered, the price is so, so, so appealing for the World #1, especially in comparison to the numbers we’re used to seeing on him. He’s eventually going to break through and snatch is first win since January, and this event is probably as good a time as any to buy low without having to solo-barrel it if you didn’t want to (though you probably shouldn’t bet more than one other guy if you have Scottie on the card). -S
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Additional Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Robert MacIntyre, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele and J.J. Spaun!
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (122), SCR (110), BOB 150175 (111)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/55/17/39
Open Results: 23/MC
Comp Results: MC
Insights: In addition to SG: Approach, my most impactful stats this week are Driving Accuracy and Around-the-Green play. Aberg is loaded with talent, but he’s struggled both in accuracy and around the greens of late. A field rank of 32nd in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds doesn’t seem awful, but paired with a mark of 92nd in Distance from the Edge of Fairway, it is. Then you add in the fact that he’s 89th in SG: ARG and 97th in Scrambling in that stretch, and all of a sudden you’ve found your reasons not to bet the Swede. That said, the price is remarkably good compared to what we’re used to seeing, so it’s up to you to turn a blind eye to the numbers and just play the “value.” -S
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/.4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/5/1/11
Open Results: 4/MC/33/76
Comp Results: 33/MC
Insights: Hotels arrives in excellent form continuing the surge that began after the PGA Championship. The putter has been red-hot, the short game has remained reliable, and while the driver can still get a little loose, he’s proven he can contend on links courses with last year’s fourth-place finish after rallying from an opening 76. That performance, along with a second U.S. Open title and Byron Nelson victory this season, has plenty of bettors believing another major could be on the horizon. I’m just not quite as sold at +3000. Last year’s T4 remains his only top-30 finish in four Open starts, and the approach play has been more roller coaster than elite despite the recent results. The overall form deserves respect, but the price feels a touch short for me given the profile. This is a clear hat tip rather than an outright target. I’d much rather look toward 3-balls, or matchup markets and let others chase another Wyndham payday. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (98), PROX (97), APP 175200 (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 13/14/11/11
Open Results: 16/MC/10/4/33/2/12/27/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 10/MC/MC/MC
Insights: When it comes to overall game and course fit, Tommy stands out this week. That said, the price doesn’t. Compare his price to that of Matt Fitzpatrick, who is essentially right next to Fleetwood on the odds board. Fitzy has two solo wins this year, as well as three Top 5s in his last four events; Tommy has three Top 5s in the last four months. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to degrade Tommy, as I really like him this week. I just can’t get over the price, especially with how inconsistent his iron play has been recently. He’s most likely going to be in the fairway, which is his most appealing attribute this week, just ahead of a strong around-the-green game — which is a close second — but I can’t wrap my head around sub-20. Fire him up in DFS, OAD and placement markets, but I’m still trying to figure out what I want to do with him in the outright market. -S
Alex Fitzpatrick
Odds: +7500
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/7/23/20
Open Results: 17 (74-70-65-73, 2023)
Comp Results: 17
Insights: Alex is making the most of his Zurich win with his brother, finishing Top 10 four times in eight events since then. Unfortunately, he just missed his first cut since then after shooting 71-70 at the Scottish Open last week, but there’s still a lot to like about his profile. Fitz V2 has gained on Approach in all but one event since the Zurich, and he comes into this event ranking 5th in the field in SG: Approach. Furthermore, he’s fairly accurate with his driver, but the short game is concerning. He’s either losing ARG or on the greens or both, making it hard to trust him winning a major. That said, he makes a lot of sense in made cut markets, Top 20 markets, and DFS — though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a chalky option in the 7k range. His Top-20 marks in Bogey%, SG: Par 4, and SG: Total: Links should provide a solid floor for his price. -S
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (111), PROX (114)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 11/1/30/43
Open Results: 3 (72-65-68-67, 2025)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Gotterup is a statistical anomaly, and I have a hard time predicting him because of it. In each of his three wins this year, he lost strokes somewhere — whether it be on Approach or on the greens. Then he went out to Scotland last week and gained in every major SG category, just to finish T11. You have fun figuring that out. Like I’ve mentioned, Accuracy and ARG play are essential this week, and by the numbers, those are Gotterup’s weakest attributes. He’s 100th in SG: ARG over his last 24 rounds, 97th in Accuracy, 105th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway, and 118th in ARG Proximity. Plus, he’s 104th in Rough Proximity, so when he’s missing fairways, he’s not getting it very close to the pin. Given these factors alone, I can’t bet Gotterup, which just means he will have a 5 stroke lead on Sunday. -S
Tyrrell Hatton
Odds: +3500
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/7/1/MC
Open Results: 16/MC/20/11/MC/6/51/MC/5/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 5/20/MC/MC
Insights: Madhatter feels like one of the stronger major contenders flying a bit under the radar. His 2026 major record of 3rd-MC-7th is impressive, and links golf has always suited his eye with three Dunhill Links victories, a runner-up at the Scottish Open, and Open finishes of 5th, 6th, 11th, 16th, and 20th. Last week the approach play cooled off for the first time in a month, but the putter remained scorching hot with a third straight event gaining over 1.2 strokes on the greens. If the irons bounce back, he has all the tools to contend. The missed cut at Birkdale in 2017 doesn’t concern me much given he was in the middle of a stretch of six missed cuts in seven starts before turning his form around immediately afterward. While he was one of the most popular picks heading into the Scottish Open, I expect sentiment to cool slightly after a quiet T17. I thought this week would give Hatton his best shot at a major in 2026 and while others my be off the train this week, I am happy to pull up a seat at +3500 for a run at the Jug. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (108), APP 200+ (149), BOB 200+ (133)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: APP 150175, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/65/22/1
Open Results: 10/5/MC/62/MC/MC/37/MC/20/MC/73
Comp Results: 5/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russell Henley continues to prove he’s built for Open Championship golf. His accurate, plotter-style game fits Royal Birkdale beautifully, and he’s backed that up with finishes of 5th and 10th in the last two Opens, gaining strokes in every major category in both starts. Add in a victory at Colonial earlier this season and it’s easy to see why many believe another major run is coming. While the model dings him for longer approach shots, his precision, scrambling, and putting remain elite weapons on a links setup. The only real question is the preparation after skipping the Scottish Open and not playing since the Travelers. Historically, that hasn’t been an issue, as Henley has often played well after a week off, and American players have enjoyed plenty of success in this championship. At +5000, he feels slightly overlooked despite arriving with one of the stronger Open résumés in the field. Birkdale should suit his methodical style, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him notch a third straight Open top 10. -C
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (77), APP 200+ (93), PUTT (77), P5 (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude P5
Top 25% Rank: TD, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/1/MC/3
Open Results: 63/MC/13/4/12
Comp Results: 13/MC
Insights: BDV feels like one of the toughest players to handicap this week. His Travelers victory over Scottie reminded everyone of his ceiling, and he followed it with a closing 64 at the Scottish Open to build more momentum heading into Royal Birkdale. The tee-to-green game remains elite, ranking among the best in the field, while the only thing holding him back last week was the putter, where he lost strokes despite leading the field with Rory on Sunday. His Open résumé is encouraging too, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at St Andrews where he entered the final round tied for the lead. The short game will always be the question mark, particularly around Birkdale’s bunkers and tightly mown runoffs, but even that part of his game has quietly improved with gains around the greens in six of his last eight starts. Last year’s missed cut at Troon will turn some bettors away, but I view it more as an outlier than a trend. At +3500, Hovland has all the tools to contend for his first major, and after backing him last week, I’m more than willing to roll the dice again. -C
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (56), SCR (66), ARD/SCR AVG (52), PUTT (99)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 9/44/MC/10
Open Results: MC/43/MC/15/MC/67/MC
Comp Results: 43/MC
Insights: SWK has quietly put together one of the steadiest seasons on Tour without finding the winner’s circle. He arrives at Royal Birkdale off a top-10 at the Scottish Open where he closed with back-to-back 66s while gaining strokes in every key category, and his statistical profile is tailor-made for this setup. Birkdale rewards precision, strategy and elite iron play far more than raw power, and few players check those boxes better than Si Woo. With five top-5s, nine top-10s and eleven top-20 finishes this season, it’s hard to ignore just how consistently he’s been putting himself in contention. The hesitation comes once the tournament reaches the closing stretch. His collapse at the Byron Nelson still lingers, and his Open Championship record hasn’t matched his talent, with just one top-15 finish and losses around the greens in each of his last three Opens. The putter also remains the swing factor, despite another solid ball-striking week in Scotland. At +5000, I can’t quite get to an outright ticket, but I love the profile for First Round Leader, 3-Balls and Matchups. -C
Tom Kim
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 150175 (103), BOB 200+ (144)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/46/3/15
Open Results: MC/MC/2/47
Comp Results: 2/MC
Insights: Tom Kim heads to Royal Birkdale with as much momentum as anyone in the field after snapping his winless drought in emphatic fashion at the Scottish Open. The victory was powered by his best ball-striking performance of the season, leading the field Tee-to-Green while ranking second in Strokes Gained: Approach and closing with a Sunday 64 to win by two. It was encouraging to see both the driver (+0.85 SG: OTT) and irons (+2.02 SG: APP) spike together, as that’s been the missing ingredient throughout much of 2026. Add in his runner-up finish at Royal Liverpool in 2023, another Open venue that shares similarities with Birkdale, and it’s easy to see why many will have him near the top of their betting card this week. The question isn’t talent—it’s whether he can back up last week’s emotional victory. Since 2021, his starts following a top-three finish have been inconsistent, and history suggests sustaining that peak form isn’t automatic. While I loved the First Round Leader ticket last week and was thrilled to see him cash the outright for many in the betting community, I’m a bit more cautious this time around. His elite approach play and improving all-around game make him a legitimate contender, but the combination of elevated expectations, increased popularity and the difficulty of going back-to-back keeps me away from an outright. If I’m investing again, it’ll likely be another First Round Leader look rather than the full 72-hole ride. -C
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: OTT, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/10/39/15
Open Results: 7/50/71/34/8/6
Comp Results: 50/71
Insights: Bobby Mac was very much in the mix last week in his homeland before putting himself out of contention on Sunday. With that T3 finish, he now has back-to-back Top 10s coming into the Open, as well as three Top 15s in his last four. He gained bigly on Approach in each of those three, and he’s gained strokes with his short game in each of the last four. The biggest issue I have is that he can miss fairways big time, as proven by his field rank of 94th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway. Another issue is his Scrambling, where he ranks 118th in this field over his last 24 rounds. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bobby contend again this week, as his irons seem to have come back to him over the last month, but it’s still hard to ignore the horrible run he had with them from January through May. I would need a much better price to back him in this event. -S
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (125), ARD/SCR AVG (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/17/29/55
Open Results: MC/16/MC/MC/1
Comp Results: 16/MC
Insights: Collin feels like one of the stronger fits for Royal Birkdale this week. His game is peaking at the right time, coming off a Travelers Championship where he posted his best off-the-tee performance of the season, second-best approach week and a Sunday 61 that nearly earned a spot in the playoff with Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler. Add in four straight tournaments gaining with the putter and it’s easy to see why his 2021 Open Championship win no longer feels like a distant memory. When Morikawa’s irons and putter are clicking together, few players are more dangerous. His Open Championship results since lifting the Claret Jug have been boom-or-bust, but this setup leans far more toward the boom side. Birkdale is a perfect fit for his precision-first style, and outside of some lingering questions around the short game, there are very few weaknesses entering the week. At +3000, not the type of number many will flock too, but has a sneaky feel he is primed to make another serious run at a second Claret Jug. -C
Jon Rahm
Odds: +2200
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 36/MC/2/16
Open Results: 34/7/2/34/3/11/MC/44/59
Comp Results: 2/7/59
Insights: Rahmbo feels like one of the more intriguing value plays for Royal Birkdale this week. The recent major résumé has created some hesitation, but zooming out shows a player who still owns an elite Open Championship profile with a runner-up at Hoylake, third at Royal St George’s, seventh at Troon, and eight made cuts in nine appearances. His game remains built for links golf — elite off the tee, creative around the greens, and comfortable when conditions demand patience and imagination. The biggest question mark is the approach play, losing strokes in three of his last four starts, but his recent struggles feel more like inconsistency than a complete loss of form. Since his 2023 Masters win, Rahm’s major results have been volatile, but he still has six Top 10s in his last 13 majors, including two runner-ups. At +2200, the market is clearly weighing the recent concerns, but the ceiling remains that of a player who should be viewed closer to the top of the board. Royal Birkdale may not be a pure power test, but Rahm’s all-around skill set gives him a legitimate chance to chase another major championship. -C
Patrick Reed
Odds: +5000
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 13/MC/45/MC
Open Results:MC/33/47/MC/10/28/MC/12/20/MC
Comp Results: 12/33/MC
Insights: Patrick Reed is always a fascinating Open Championship player because his creativity, wedge play, and short game are built for links golf. The 2026 résumé is strong with wins at the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters, plus Top 15 finishes in two majors this season, proving the ceiling is still there when everything clicks. The hesitation comes from the ball-striking. Reed showed flashes last week with four straight rounds in the 60s, but the underlying numbers are harder to trust with losses off the tee in five straight starts and an approach game that has cooled after a strong start to 2026. Around the greens will be his biggest weapon at Royal Birkdale, but relying on the short game alone is a tough ask against this field. The fit makes sense, the major pedigree is real, and he has the type of game that can surprise in Open conditions. The only issue is the résumé is thinner than expected — just one Open Top 10 and a missed cut at Birkdale in 2017. From a distance, Reed checks plenty of boxes, but once you dig deeper, the picture gets a bit murky to invest in. -C
Justin Rose
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (101), APP 200+ (120), PROX (121), SCR (119), BOB 175200 (124), BOB 200+ (111), P3 (109)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, APP 200+, PROX, SCR, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, P3
Top 25% Rank: TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, BS
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 25/11/MC/12
Open Results: 16/2/MC/46/20/2/54/22/6/23/MC/MC/44/MC/13/70/12/MC/22/30/MC/4
Comp Results: 2/22/23/30/MC/MC
Insights: Rosey has been flying under the radar, which is usually right where you want him to be, but the oddsmakers are onto it given the seemingly short price. Rose hasn’t really been in the mix much over the last few months, but his three best finishes in that span were the Masters, PGA Championship and the US Open. Do you sense a theme there? Rosey is as big of a big-game hunter as you can get. That said, his Open history is surprisingly mediocre considering he’s from England. Moreover, he wasn’t great in either of the last two events at Royal Birkdale, finishing T54 in 2017 and 70 in 2008 — just food for thought. Given the price, I’m probably out when it comes to outrights, but I like the idea of DFS and Top 10 markets. -S
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (154), BOB 150175 (138), P3 (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/51/11/29
Open Results: 7/1/17/15/26/41/2/20
Comp Results: 1/17
Insights: Like in most majors, Xander seemingly has a pretty high floor at the Open. However, his form is concerning. He finished 51st at the Travelers, losing more than 3.5 strokes on Approach and almost 3 strokes on the greens, and the issues were not fixed in Scotland. In fact, X-man missed the cut last week for the second time this season. Prior to teeing it up in February, Xander had not missed a cut since the Masters 2022, so things are definitely off right now. The odds reflect that, but not enough for my liking. I’m a fan of Xander, but I haven’t been a fan of betting Xander this year. He’s been more of a floor player than a ceiling player, which is not what you want when betting outright markets. Honestly, I’m probably avoiding all together, though not necessarily fading. -S
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (131), PUTT (128), BA (102)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, PUTT, P5
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 44/7/MC/12
Open Results: 23 (73-69-68-68, 2025)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Spaun’s profile is going to make him a popular option this week. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s seventh in the field in SG: Approach, 13th in Driving Accuracy, 13th in Distance from Edge of Fairway, 20th in Fairway Proximity and sixth in SG: Par 4. That alone should provide Spaun with a solid floor, but where I worry is the short game. His putter isn’t the most reliable, as proven but his field rank of 73rd in the last 24 rounds, and his around-the-green game hasn’t been the best either — nor has his Par 3 success. In fact, Spaun has lost strokes ARG in three straight events. Did you know he’s missed the cut in every major this year, too? I see the vision, and the price is very attractive, but given the expected popularity along with inconsistent short game, I will pass. -S