2026 Open Championship - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Open Results: Finishes at The Open Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club & Royal Troon Golf Club
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (59), PUTT (84), BOB 175200 (78)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, APP 150175, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/4/22/2
Open Results: 4/50/41/21/26/2/MC/44/MC/44
Comp Results: 41/50/MC
Insights: Fitzy’s incredible year continues, as he comes into this event — played in his homeland — in as good of form as anyone. His current run features three Top-4 finishes in his last four events, as well as two other Top-25 finishes in six of his last eight events, and that’s on top of wins at RBC Heritage, Valspar and Zurich (if you count the Zurich). Furthermore, he’s been absolutely striping the ball, gaining significantly on Approach in every event since the API in early March. Not to mention, he’s been pretty much equally as good around the greens. In fact, last week’s Scottish Open was the first event he lost strokes ARG since Pebbly Beach in mid-February, and he still finished T3. On the greens, Fitz seems to love putting on these fescue surfaces, which is a good thing considering this is probably the only area that makes you nervous backing him. All things considered, the price is extremely fair given how hot this guy’s game is. -S
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (78), APP 175200 (85), PROX (117)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/32/12/7
Open Results: 7/MC/6/3/46/MC/2/4/5/1/MC/60/25/3/47/42
Comp Results: 1/5/6/60/MC
Insights: Rory looks primed for another run at the Claret Jug. After using the Scottish Open as preparation, he closed with a brilliant 64 and finished T7 despite a poor Saturday where he lost nearly three strokes on approach. Outside of that round, the game looked exactly where it needs to be, and the extra prep—including a practice round at Royal Birkdale with Sir Nick Faldo weeks before the championship—only adds confidence. His Open résumé speaks for itself with eight top-10 finishes, including seven since his 2014 victory, and few players consistently peak for majors like Rory. The limited schedule continues to suit him, and while he doesn’t always grade perfectly in my model due to fewer starts, he’s firmly back near the top this week. I said a few weeks ago that if I had to pick the next major winner between Rory and Scottie, it was Rory without hesitation, and nothing has changed. Royal Birkdale is one of his favorite Open venues, the links form is undeniable, and after finishing 15-under over three rounds in Scotland, this feels like the ideal setup to contend for a second Claret Jug. At +800, he’s my clear favorite entering the week. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +750
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (82), PROX (103), BOB 175200 (101)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/2/4/12
Open Results: 1/7/23/21/8
Comp Results: 7/23
Insights: Well, it happened. Scottie Scheffler missed the cut in a professional golf tournament for the first time since the Fed-Ex St. Jude in August of 2022. Nearly four years he went without missing a cut; what a remarkable run for the World #1. The cut highlights some weird dynamics around Scottie’s profile his year. It’s not that he’s playing poorly — it’s somewhat impossible to argue that for someone that’s finished T4 or better in six of his last nine events — but last year’s Open champion hasn’t had that clutch factor about him this year, specifically on Sundays, and he hasn’t really been passing the eye test either. It seems that there’s one area or one round holding him back every time he’s in serious contention. That said, although not as elite across the board as he was earlier this year and late last year, his metrics are still where you want them to be. He’s sitting Top 15 in this field in a majority of key stats this week, and his ball-striking is still very controlled, concise and dependable. Hitting fairways is going to be key for Scottie’s success this week. He’s 11th in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds, so there shouldn’t be an issue there, but if one creeps up, he ranks just 83rd in Rough Proximity in that time. All things considered, the price is so, so, so appealing for the World #1, especially in comparison to the numbers we’re used to seeing on him. He’s eventually going to break through and snatch is first win since January, and this event is probably as good a time as any to buy low without having to solo-barrel it if you didn’t want to (though you probably shouldn’t bet more than one other guy if you have Scottie on the card). -S
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