Champ’s Clubhouse Thoughts on Round 1
Overall, the course and weather delivered exactly what you want—everything from eagles and birdies to gritty pars, with plenty of bogeys, doubles, and even a few blow-up holes mixed in. It’s the kind of setup that really separates the field. After watching the Rory McIlroy Amazon Documentary last night, I was curious how Rory McIlroy would come out, and he answered that right away. A stress-free clinic and just his third sub-70 opening round in 18 attempts—that’s been the weak spot, and why I stayed off the outright at shorter numbers. With the course expected to firm up and play tougher each day, that sets up perfectly for him. And honestly, what better full-circle moment Tiger Woods moment than someone going back-to-back for the first time since he did it? I was surprised to see slow starts from Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, but with conditions getting more demanding, I expect at least one—if not both—to bounce back and make a push to the weekend. Looking at the board, it’s hard to argue with DataGolf having over 50% of the win equity tied up in Rory, Scottie Scheffler, and Xander Schauffele. That feels about right and no breaking news there. I liked the start from Patrick Reed and I’m interested to see how he comes out tomorrow. Also keeping an eye on Hideki Matsuyama—if the approach game shows up like it has in his last couple starts (and really most of 2026), he can climb quickly.
Curious to see how many players can consistently gain across the bag as the week progresses. The leaders by the end of tomorrow will draw the tougher afternoon conditions over the weekend, so sustaining those strokes gained numbers in a more difficult setup will be key to identifying who’s still in the mix come Sunday. Sam Burns at the top and Nick Taylor are both surprises given their form this season. Let’s see if they can back it up tomorrow—I’ll likely be fading at least one of them in Round 2.
Ludvig Åberg got off to a great start with a steady par-birdie rhythm, but a poor drive on 8 really flipped the round and led to a disastrous closing stretch. He’s the kind of elite player who can burn bettors on a day like today, but I fully expect a bounce back in Round 2. Brooks Koepka is an interesting case—Top 10 Tee-to-Green and Top 5 in Approach after Day 1. That said, the same issues we’ve seen all season showed up again, with the driver and putter holding him back. Scottie Scheffler looked elite early, then settled into neutral—very similar to what we’ve seen from him throughout 2026—coasting home to a 70. The question is whether that was conditions-driven or just more of the same trend we’ve seen over the past few months. Lastly, he may be a debutant, but I really like what Jacob Bridgeman is showing. The overall game is there. I’m buying in for Round 2 and think a late weekend tee time is well within reach if he builds on this tomorrow.
These are the players I recommend monitoring closely—not just for Round 2, but as strong names to watch heading into the weekend. Four of them were already in my pre-tournament Top 10, led by my top-ranked player, Rory McIlroy. No outrights added yet, but check back tomorrow as the list narrows and the final 36 holes come into clearer focus.
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Clubhouse Members get my Round 2 Buys, Sells and Bets below!
Round 2 Buys (Players I expect to play above expectation in R2)
Shane Lowry 2 TG, 36 OTT, 2 APP, 42 ARD, 57 PUTT
Rory McIlroy 3 TG, 5 APP, 17 ARD, 13 PUTT
Scottie Scheffler 4 TG, 2 OTT, 20 APP, 24 ARD, 44 PUTT
Jacob Bridgeman 5 TG, 28 OTT, 7 APP, 22 ARD, 52 PUTT
Wyndham Clark 6 TG, 13 OTT, 27 APP, 17 ARD, 60 PUTT
Xander Schauffele 7 TG, 6 OTT, 13 APP, 52 ARD, 25 PUTT
Brooks Koepka 9 TG, 60 OTT, 4 APP, 30 ARD, 51 PUTT
Chris Gotterup 10 TG, 3 OTT, 49 APP, 23 ARD, 50 PUTT
Justin Rose 17 TG, 34 OTT, APP 22, 32 ARD, 27 PUTT
Jason Day 20 TG, 26 OTT, 34 APP, 25 ARD, 4 PUTT
Ludvig Aberg 22 TG, 39 OTT, 3 APP, 88 ARD, 75 PUTT
Patrick Reed 24 TG, 27 OTT, 39 APP, 29 ARD, 2 PUTT
Sepp Straka 25 TG, 25 OTT, 16 APP, 51 ARD, 47 PUTT
Round 2 Sells (Players I expect to play below expectation in R2)
Tyrrel Hatton 13 TG, 9 OTT, 62 APP, 5 ARD, 82 PUTT
Nicolai Hojgaard 47 TG, 18 OTT, 78 APP, 37 ARD, 66 PUTT
Alex Noren 68 TG, 69 OTT, 24 APP, 84 ARD, 54 PUTT
Nick Taylor 13 TG, 47 OTT, 11 APP, 34 ARD, 34 PUTT
Cam Smith 55 TG, 80 OTT, 63 APP, 9 ARD, 21 PUTT
Collin Morikawa 64 TG, 57 OTT, 51 APP, 65 ARD, 17 PUTT
Ryan Gerard 69 TG, 78 OTT, 44 APP, 56 ARD, 1 PUTT
Round 2 Bets
3Ball Match-ups
Si Woo Kim +140 > Harris English | Marco Penge - 1.5u
Parlay +287 - 1u
Scottie Scheffler -125 > Robert MacIntyre | Gary Woodland
Jacob Bridgeman +115 > Aaron Rai | Sergio Garcia
Parlay +2408 - 0.25u
Hideki Matsuyama +140 > Russell Henley | Collin Morikawa
Jacob Bridgeman +115 > Aaron Rai | Sergio Garcia
Keegan Bradley +170 > Ryan Gerard | Nick Taylor
Scottie Scheffler -125 > Robert MacIntyre | Gary Woodland