Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Deere Results: Finishes at the John Deere Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Country Club, The Summit Club & East Lake Golf Club
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (132), PROX (108), BOB 125150 (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 30/43/27/10
Deere Results: 21/MC/4 (9 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 10/43
Insights: Gotterup deserves to be near the top of the betting board this week. The ball striking has been excellent, gaining on approach in four straight starts while the putter has stayed hot, and he ranks inside the top tier of this field in nearly every key stat for TPC Deere Run. He’s also flashed plenty of upside here, finishing fourth on debut while posting nine of his 10 career rounds in the 60s. Add in a recent run of consistent finishes and it’s easy to understand why he’s the favorite. The concern is simply the price. Around-the-green play has been a liability for much of the spring, and while that’s less important at Deere Run than at most venues, it leaves little margin for error if the irons cool off. He’s also only third in my custom model despite leading the market, suggesting the odds are more a product of a weak field than true separation. Gotterup has the game to win, but at +1600 I’d rather target placement bets, matchups, or One-and-Done than pay a premium on the outright. -C
Ben Griffin
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/17/MC/3
Deere Results: MC/5 (5 of 6 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 10
Insights: On the heels of 4 Top 20s in his last 5 events and playing in a weak field, I understand why Ben Griffin is shorter than 20/1 to win this event. However, I have a hard time actually making the click. Over his last 24 rounds, Griffin is 70th or worse in THIS field in Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR% and BOB%, so how are we to trust him to win a birdie fest at this price? Plus, he’s 128th or worse in THIS field in the 3 proximity buckets on which I focused this week. Not to mention, his putting has been pretty abysmal over the last 3 events outside of his flukishly good Round 1 last week. In short, there’s absolutely no value here with Griffin. In fact, he just might be my fade of the week? -S
Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (128), PUTT (122), BOB 125150 (139), P5 (106)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 20 0+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 54/16/MC/MC
Deere Results: 21/2/17 (9 last 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 63 3 times)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Young Thor is one of the more intriguing boom-or-bust plays on the board. His history at TPC Deere Run is impossible to ignore—17th in his John Deere Debut, runner-up behind Davis Thompson last year, and 21st in his other appearance. He’s carded a 63 in all three starts here, including the low round of the day in both the second round of 2023 and the final round of 2025, proving he has the firepower to go extremely low on this course. The concern is that his current form doesn’t quite match the upside. Outside of a couple of driving spikes earlier this season, his tee-to-green game has settled closer to field average, and the recent results haven’t inspired much confidence. The talent is undeniable and this feels like the type of weaker field where he could break through, but it still feels like we’re betting more on potential than current form. He’s a player I fully expect to win on Tour, but at this number I’m willing to wait until the overall game starts trending in the right direction. -C
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Additional Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Keegan Bradley, Eric Cole, Rickie Fowler, Doug Ghim, Tom Kim, Keith Mitchell and Jackson Suber!
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (108), BOB 125150 (121), BOB 175200 (113), BA (126), P4 (114)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 125150, BA
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/32/19/35
Deere Results: 22/61 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 7/7/9/11/12/21/23/26/32
Insights: Another player that is priced because of name recognition rather than current form. Sure, he’s chugging along with 7 Top 35s in his last 9 events, but he hasn’t finished any higher than 12th in that stretch — highlighting a pretty low floor. His short game is completely unreliable (almost 5 SG: PUTT lost in the last 2 starts combined), and because of that, he hasn’t been carding birdies — which you’re going to need plenty of this week by the way. In a weak field, I need to see better field ranks than 67th in Driving Accuracy, 77th in Bogey Avoidance and 97th in BOB% over his last 24 rounds. His iron game in my key proximity buckets isn’t any better, either. I need much more from someone shorter than 30/1. -S
Eric Cole
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: APP, APP 125150, APP 175200, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 38/MC/8/2
Deere Results: 60/7/42/MC (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Cole is an interesting case study this week if you’re a Driving Accuracy truther like me. I hit Davis Thompson here in 2024 and cashed a T3 each-way on Kevin Roy last year utilizing the “Accuracy is King” strategy, so why would I divert? Having said that, Cole is 101st in this field in SG: OTT and 106th in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds, but those are literally the only blemishes among my key stats from Monday’s newsletter. He’s top-40 everywhere else and top-25 in all but 1 other metric (GIR%, 39th). Staying true to my methodology, I cannot bet Cole this week, but I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to after his solo 2nd at Colonial and solo 8th at Memorial. Just know, he’s played at this course 4 times since COVID and his T7 in 2024 was by far his best finish. All 3 other appearances here were T42, T60 and MC. Not for me. If I HAD to choose a market in which to use Cole, I would go with DFS. Hat tip, if you will. -S
Rickie Fowler
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (78), APP 200+ (84), ARD (104), ARD/SCR AVG (79), BOB 175200 (84)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Stats
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 175200, PROX, AP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 38/MC/MC/MC
Deere Results: 18/MC (3 of 6 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 3/7/8/12/16/19/23/26
Insights: I’ve been pretty bearish on my half of golfers this week, and that’s not going to stop here with Slick Rick. In fact, I’m going to keep it pretty short here. Rickie ranks top-50 in this field in just ONE of my key metrics, which is pretty sad considering the strength of the field from top to bottom. His last 5 events: T38, MC, MC, MC, T60. Sure the run of Top 10s in spring were fun, but those seem to be long gone. I don’t see the need to bet Rickie here, even if the price is somewhat appealing when you simply consider name recognition and field strength. Look for a Top 10 bet if you want to try to play to his ceiling. -S
Doug Ghim
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (91), APP 175200 (89), PUTT (104), BOB 25150 (80), BOB 175200 (133)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PUTT, BOB 125150, BB 150175, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 15/28/31/19
Deere Results: 31/34/26/MC/18/WD (12 of 19 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2025)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Dougie continues to quietly put together one of the more consistent stretches in this field, finishing 15th, 28th, 31st, and 19th in his last four starts. The driver has been excellent, gaining off the tee in six of his last seven events, while his around-the-green play has quietly turned into a strength with gains in four straight. The irons haven’t been quite as sharp as we’ve come to expect, but they’ve still flashed enough upside, and his history at TPC Deere Run includes plenty of strong ball-striking weeks, highlighted by last year’s first-round-leading 62. As always, the putter is the deciding factor. Ghim has consistently gained on approach at Deere Run only to give strokes back on the greens, and despite a positive putting week in Canada, he’s still lost strokes putting in six of his last eight starts. At +5000, the outright feels a bit ambitious, but another top-10 or top-20 finish feels within reach. I’ll also have interest in his First-Round Leader and 3-ball markets given his ability to get off to fast starts here including first round leader last year at this event. -C
Tom Kim
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (103), APP 200+ (109), BOB 150175 (108), BOB 200+ (144)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 125150, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/15/54/54
Deere Results: MC (72-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 20/23/49
Insights: Tom Kim feels like one of the more interesting plays near the top of the board. His game has been trending in the right direction for a while, culminating with a third-place finish at the U.S. Open after a solid run that also included a sixth at Myrtle Beach, 15th in Canada, and consistently elite approach play. The irons have gained in four straight starts, the short game remains a strength, and the putter has quietly turned a corner over the past few months. On paper, a shorter, wedge-heavy birdie fest like TPC Deere Run feels much more suited to his skill set than the venues he’s been playing. The one area to monitor is the driver. Tom has lost strokes off the tee in three of his last four starts, and although the fairways here are forgiving, he’ll still need to keep the ball in play to maximize his elite iron game. His missed cut here last year doesn’t concern me much given he still fired a Friday 66 and arrived in far worse form than he does now. With three PGA Tour wins already at just 24 years old, this feels like a great spot, but will warn you I won’t be the only one saying it. You’ve been warned. -C
Keith Mitchell
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 125150 (126), PROX (106), ARD (98), ARD/SCR AVG (86), PUTT (99), BOB 125150 (146)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/4/29/MC
Deere Results: 44/18/42/MC/7 (15 of 18 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3
Insights: Keith checks just about every box this week. He’s first in my model, continues to gain both off the tee and on approach, and is coming off another impressive performance where he fired a Saturday 63 and posted four rounds in the 60s. His history at TPC Deere Run is quietly solid as well, with 15 of 18 career rounds in the 60s, a low of 63, and a seventh-place finish on debut. In a field without many elite players, this feels like one of the better opportunities he’ll have all season. The question, as it often is with Mitchell, isn’t whether he’ll put himself in contention—it’s whether he can finish the job. Around-the-green play has cooled off recently, and we’ve seen him struggle to close when the pressure mounts. Still, this feels like a spot where he can finally turn that corner. I’ll likely have exposure in the outright market despite the shorter number, and he’s also one of my favorite First-Round Leader targets given how often he comes out firing. If there’s a week for “Killa Keith” to break through again, this might be it. -C
Jackson Suber
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (109), PUTT (116)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Stats
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 30/MC/4/67
Deere Results: MC (69-69, 2025)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: I’m fairly bullish on Jackson Suber this week. His MC at this event last year isn’t ideal, nor are the back-to-back events with lost strokes on Approach coming into this start, but we’ve seen a couple ceiling performances from him over the last month and a half — a pair of 4th-place finishes in Canada and at Craig Ranch. It’s worth mentioning, both of those events require a lot of birdies to finish Top 5, so that’s a plus for Suber here. As it pertains to my key stats, he was 2nd in my early-week model, checking in Top-30 in this field in a vast majority of metrics, including driving Accuracy, Bogey Avoidance and SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. On top of that, he’s Top-11 in SG: Approach, GIR%, BOB%, P5 BOB, App 100-150 and APP 200+. At 50/1, even down to 40/1, I’m very interested in Suber this week. -S