2026 John Deere Classic - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Deere Results: Finishes at the John Deere Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Country Club, The Summit Club & East Lake Golf Club
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (132), PROX (108), BOB 125150 (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 30/43/27/10
Deere Results: 21/MC/4 (9 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 10/43
Insights: Gotterup deserves to be near the top of the betting board this week. The ball striking has been excellent, gaining on approach in four straight starts while the putter has stayed hot, and he ranks inside the top tier of this field in nearly every key stat for TPC Deere Run. He’s also flashed plenty of upside here, finishing fourth on debut while posting nine of his 10 career rounds in the 60s. Add in a recent run of consistent finishes and it’s easy to understand why he’s the favorite. The concern is simply the price. Around-the-green play has been a liability for much of the spring, and while that’s less important at Deere Run than at most venues, it leaves little margin for error if the irons cool off. He’s also only third in my custom model despite leading the market, suggesting the odds are more a product of a weak field than true separation. Gotterup has the game to win, but at +1600 I’d rather target placement bets, matchups, or One-and-Done than pay a premium on the outright. -C
Ben Griffin
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/17/MC/3
Deere Results: MC/5 (5 of 6 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 10
Insights: On the heels of 4 Top 20s in his last 5 events and playing in a weak field, I understand why Ben Griffin is shorter than 20/1 to win this event. However, I have a hard time actually making the click. Over his last 24 rounds, Griffin is 70th or worse in THIS field in Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR% and BOB%, so how are we to trust him to win a birdie fest at this price? Plus, he’s 128th or worse in THIS field in the 3 proximity buckets on which I focused this week. Not to mention, his putting has been pretty abysmal over the last 3 events outside of his flukishly good Round 1 last week. In short, there’s absolutely no value here with Griffin. In fact, he just might be my fade of the week? -S
Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (128), PUTT (122), BOB 125150 (139), P5 (106)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 20 0+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 54/16/MC/MC
Deere Results: 21/2/17 (9 last 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 63 3 times)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Young Thor is one of the more intriguing boom-or-bust plays on the board. His history at TPC Deere Run is impossible to ignore—17th in his John Deere Debut, runner-up behind Davis Thompson last year, and 21st in his other appearance. He’s carded a 63 in all three starts here, including the low round of the day in both the second round of 2023 and the final round of 2025, proving he has the firepower to go extremely low on this course. The concern is that his current form doesn’t quite match the upside. Outside of a couple of driving spikes earlier this season, his tee-to-green game has settled closer to field average, and the recent results haven’t inspired much confidence. The talent is undeniable and this feels like the type of weaker field where he could break through, but it still feels like we’re betting more on potential than current form. He’s a player I fully expect to win on Tour, but at this number I’m willing to wait until the overall game starts trending in the right direction. -C
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