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TPC Deere Run
Silvis, Illinois
Par 71, ~7,350 yards
Short course
Architect: D.A. Weibring
Non-signature event
Top 65 and ties make cut
Greens: Bentgrass
Roughly 5,500 sq ft (small)
11.5 on Stimpmeter (average)
Rough: Long bluegrass with high penalty
Last 5 year scoring average: 69.42
Two-thirds of holes play at or under par
2025 scoring average: 69.44
Birdie-or-better percentage was 24.5% last year (3.2% over Tour average)
Birdie-to-bogey rate: 1.7 (Tour average 1.42)
Birdie festttttttt!
Drive usage has been > 70% each of last 4 years with last year being the highest at 75.7%
5-year accuracy average about 5-6% better than Tour average
GIR% 5-6% better than Tour average
GIR% from fairway was greater than 80% in 2024, almost 79% last year
Popular proximity buckets for approach shots:
50-125 yards: 24%+
125-150 yards: 21%+
200+ yards: 21%+
Putting is very easy here
4 Par 3s
158 - 226 yards
3 of hardest 6 holes on course
All 3 with 14%+ bogey rates
2025 average score: 3.03
11 Par 4s
361 - 503 yards
Hardest 3 holes on course
#9 503 yards = 25%+ bogey rate, sub-10% birdie rate
5 with 20%+ birdie rates
#14 361 yards = nearly 40% birdie rate
2025 average score: 3.97
3 Par 5s
All 550-600 yards
3 of 4 easiest holes on course
2025 average score: 4.53
Recent John Deere Classic Results
2025: Brian Campbell -18 (65-66-68-67); Playoff Victory over Emiliano Grillo
2024: Davis Thompson -28 (63-67-62-64); 4 Stroke Victory over 3 Players
2023: Sepp Straka -21 (73-63-65-62); 2 Stroke Victory over Smalley & Todd
2022: J.T. Poston -21 (62-65-67-69); 3 Stroke Victory over Bezuidenhout & Grillo
2021: Lucas Glover -19 (68-63-70-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Ryan Moore & Kevin Na
2019: Dylan Frittelli -21 (66-68-65-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Russell Henley
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Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
Become a Clubhouse Member to unlock Key Stats, Comp Courses, Tournament Trends and Full Models including our model weights where applicable
Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy%
Greens-in-Regulation%
Tier 2
Birdies-or-Better%
Shots Gained: Putting (Bent)
Bogey Avoidance
Three-putt Avoidance
Tier 3
Par 4 BOB%
Par 5 BOB%
Approach 100-150 yards
Approach 50-100 yards
Approach 200+ yards
Champ’s Course Comps
The Country Club
The Summit Club
East Lake Golf Club
Tournament Trends Since 2010
Odds
0-25: 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2010
26-50: 2024, 2021, 2017, 2013,
51-100: 2023, 2022, 2019
101+: 2025, 2018, 2014
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 10/15 (67%) within 4 shots (2/15 led)
R2: 10/15 (67%) within 3 shots (4/15 led)
R3: 14/15 (93%) within 4 shots (8/15 led)
Winner’s Lead-In Form
13/15 (87%) with at least 1 Top 20 finish in their last 4 starts
10/15 (67%) made the cut in their last 2 starts
8/15 (53%) with at least 1 Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
5/15 (33%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
Winner’s John Deere Classic History
10/15 (%) made at least 2 prior appearances
10/15 (%) made the cut in their last appearance
6/15 (%) Top 20 in a prior appearance
8/15 (%) multiple made cuts in prior appearances
1/15 (%) WON as a Debutant
6/15 (%) Top 10 in a prior appearance
4/15 (%) WIN or 2nd in a prior appearance
First Round Leader Splits
AM: 67% (2025, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2010)
PM: 56% (2024, 2021, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011)
*results can include instances where FRL from both splits, both get credited with a win.
Early Models
Champ’s Early Top 10
Doug Ghim
Tom Kim
Rickie Fowler
Jackson Suber
Adam Svensson
Adrien Dumont de Chassart
Kevin Yu
Seamus Power
Taylor Pendrith
Andrew Novak
Shots Gained: TPC Deere Run
World Cup Futures Add
Pretty rough result from Portugal - only favorite to not win their group. Of course, it means the 10/1 parlay falls one leg short.
Colombia to make Semi-Final at +450 on B365 (1.33u)
Their side of the bracket sets up for an Argentina vs. Colombia crash course in the quarterfinals, and Colombia is very familiar with Messi and company. Assuming we get that matchup, Colombia won’t be this long of a dog. Taking the perceived value now.