Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Southwind Results: Finishes at TPC Southwind
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Albany Golf Course, Port Royal Golf Course & Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1100
Stats: n/a
Top 75% Rank: n/a
Top 25% Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 40/7/32/12
Southwind Results: 68/3/MC/12/47/4/7/29 (19 of 30 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 18
Insights: Rory McIlroy arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest course histories in the field, but his current form comes with a few questions. He’s gained off the tee in four straight starts and remains one of the best drivers in the field, while his approach play has been much more inconsistent, losing strokes in his last three starts. The putter has also been boom-or-bust, although his Bermuda putting numbers are among the better marks in the field. His recent form of 40-7-32-12 doesn’t jump off the page, but he ranks fifth in the field over his last four starts and still carries the highest ceiling of nearly anyone in this field. Course history is where the case becomes much more interesting. Rory has finished 3rd, 4th, 7th and 12th in eight Southwind starts, gaining off the tee in six and on approach in five. He also owns 19 rounds in the 60s here, including a 62, showing he has consistently been able to find the scoring gear this course demands. The concern is that this is his first start here since the renovation, and only two of his last five opening rounds have been in the 60s, so I don’t see a strong FRL angle. At +1100, the price leaves little room for the approach game to remain average, but the combination of elite driving, proven Southwind success and strong recent form makes Rory difficult to ignore. He’s more of a Top-10/Top-5 play for me than an outright at this number, but the ceiling is absolutely there if the irons finally click. -C
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (154), BOB 150175 (154), P3 (125)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, BOB 175200, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, AP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 2/18/MC/51
Southwind Results: 22/2/24/57/46/6/27/52 (23 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 4/8/10/12/MC
Insights: Xander Schauffele comes into TPC Southwind with his form finally giving bettors a reason to look past a somewhat uninspiring season-long statistical profile. He followed a missed cut with a runner-up at the Rocket Classic, entering the weekend just two shots back and the final round four behind before closing with a 65. More importantly, he’s gained above average or better off the tee and on approach in back-to-back starts, while the putter—his biggest issue all season—finally gained at Detroit. That was only his third positive putting week in his last 10, but it’s a meaningful sign for a player whose ceiling has historically been tied to getting the flat stick to cooperate. He’s also top 10 in this field in OTT, total driving, scrambling, birdie average and par-5 scoring, giving him plenty of ways to stay competitive. Southwind history gives Xander another reason to keep him on the card. He’s finished 2nd, 6th and 22nd here, with 23 of 32 career rounds in the 60s, and has gained putting in seven of eight appearances. His runner-up two years ago included the low weekend of the tournament with rounds of 67-63, while he also posted a low round of the day here last year. The biggest concern is proximity, where he ranks near the bottom of the field, especially on these small greens, along with mediocre par-3 scoring. At +1600, the price is still difficult to love given only three top-5 finishes this season, but his recent runner-up, strong Southwind history and signs of life with the putter make him a player worth keeping exposure to. I’m willing to put more weight on the recent form and proven ceiling than the season-long numbers here, with Top-10/Top-5 markets more appealing than forcing the outright at 16/1. -C
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (74), PROX (100), BOB 175200 (105)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/4/MC/2
Southwind Results: 3/4/41/MC/14/15/43/MC (20 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 65, 4 times)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/3/4/5/57
Insights: Scottie Scheffler enters TPC Southwind with arguably the strongest overall profile in the field, even at a price of just +500. He’s first in the field in Bermuda putting and owns the best overall average ranking across your key metrics, sitting more than four average spots ahead of the next-best player. The recent form is equally encouraging, with finishes of 2nd-4th-MC-2nd and a runner-up at the 3M Open where he pushed Koivun deep into Sunday. He’s gained off the tee in four straight, on approach in three of four and around the greens in all four, while his best putting performance of the season came last week. The only statistical concerns are approach proximity from 175-200 yards, overall proximity and BOB from 175-200, but even those have improved substantially throughout the season. He’s also finding the scoring gear again, with 10 of his last 12 rounds in the 60s and seven straight rounds of 68 or better. Course history and comp-course results only strengthen the case. Scheffler has finished 3rd and 4th in his last two Southwind appearances, sitting two shots back entering the weekend in 2024 and two behind heading into Sunday last year before missing the playoff by one. He has 20 of 28 rounds in the 60s here, including four 65s, and his last two appearances have been particularly strong because the putter finally cooperated alongside his already elite tee-to-green game. The comp profile is nearly impossible to ignore with two wins at Albany, two runner-ups, a 3rd at Port Royal and a 5th at the RSM. Your custom model also separates him from the field, giving him a 4,730 score compared with 3,960 for the next player. At +500, the obvious question isn’t whether the profile fits—it does—it’s whether the number is worth paying. I expect a heavy “Without Scottie” market this week for good reason, but if you’re betting the outright, the combination of current form, course history, Bermuda putting and the overwhelming model advantage makes him the clear favorite. -C
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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock Player Deep Dives for Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa!
Sam Burns
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (102), APP 175200 (105), ARD (121), BOB 175200 (111)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: GIR, PROX, BS, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/12/2/20
Southwind Results: 28/5/52/20/2/MC (13 of 22 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/11/12/14/16/37
Insights: Sam Burns enters TPC Southwind as one of the strongest all-around profiles in the field at +2000. The recent form is hard to ignore, with three Top 5s in his last five starts, including two majors, while gaining off the tee and on approach in four straight events. He also ranks near the top of the field in putting, par-4 scoring, birdie-or-better and bogey avoidance, giving him plenty of ways to separate on a course where clutch scoring will matter. The main concern is around-the-green play, where he sits in the bottom 25% of the field, but the strength of the rest of the profile gives him plenty of room to overcome it. Southwind has also been a comfortable place for Burns, with two Top 5s in six appearances, including a runner-up in 2021, and he has gained on approach in every start here. He’s posted 13 of 22 rounds in the 60s, including a 63 in 2024, while seven of his last 10 weekend rounds here have been in the 60s. Albany provides another strong comp, and his history on similar Bermuda setups adds confidence in the putter showing up when it matters. The only hesitation is the slow starts he’s had at Southwind and the possibility of some rust after the Open. After the season Burns has put together, I’m willing to trust the game is ready and that the motivation is high for his first win since 2023. At +2000, this feels like another legitimate chance for Burns to turn a strong season into a Sunday tee time. -C
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (52), APP 175200 (65), PUTT (91), BOB 175200 (95)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/3/4/22
Southwind Results: 32/18/66/5/57/6/4 (18 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 4/12/13/30/MC
Insights: Matt Fitzpatrick enters TPC Southwind at +2000 with one of the strongest overall profiles in the field, but I suspect he’ll get overlooked after an unexpected missed cut at the Open. That result snapped a run of 12 straight starts gaining on approach, and the back-to-back losses around the greens are another oddity, but neither feels like a reason to abandon a player who has posted seven Top 5s this season, including five Top 2s and three wins. Fitzpatrick ranks inside the Top 5 in the field in tee-to-green, approach, GIR, ball striking, around-the-green play and par-4 scoring, while his putter has gained in five straight starts. The question is whether the recent putting and short-game gains translate to Southwind, where his historical numbers are stronger than his more recent results suggest. The course history is quietly better than it looks, with a 5th, 6th and 4th among his seven appearances, plus 18 of 28 rounds in the 60s. He’s shown plenty of upside here, including a 36-hole lead in 2019 and multiple low rounds, while Albany gives him at least one meaningful comp result with a Top 5. The biggest concern is that his Southwind success came earlier in his career, and only six of his last 12 rounds here have been in the 60s. Still, this is a player with the third-best recent results in the field and one of the deepest season-long statistical profiles. After an Open missed cut that should keep ownership down, I’m willing to look past the recent blip and take a chance that Fitzpatrick gets back to the version of himself we’ve seen for most of 2026. At +2000, he feels like a sneaky way to buy a proven winner at a number that may not stay this high. -C
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (111), PROX (115), BOB 175200 (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/13/14/11
Southwind Results: 3/22/3/46/35/4 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/20/37
Insights: Tommy checks a lot of the boxes at Southwind and arguably has the strongest course-history profile of the players at the top of this board. He owns three Top-4 finishes here, including a 3rd last year, and has gained across every key category in four of his last six starts. The consistency is the biggest appeal, with gains off the tee, on approach and around the greens in all four of his last four starts while the putter has cooperated in three of four. He doesn't have a standout strength statistically, but he rarely gives you a reason to take him off the board. His biggest issue is getting all four rounds to click at once, and that's been the difference between contention and another near miss. At Southwind, though, he's repeatedly put himself in position to win, including leading after 36 and 54 holes last year before falling one shot short of the playoff. At +2000, the price isn't screaming value, but the combination of elite course history, current consistency and another strong start-to-finish profile makes Tommy one of the more appealing outright options in this range and highly encourage a placement or each-way as we know Tommy’s tendencies. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (104), ARD (106), BOB 175200 (91)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: APP 150175, PROX, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 20/9/12/65
Southwind Results: 17/30/6/MC/MC/7/MC/27 (15 of 26 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/6/10/13/19/22/30/65/MC/MC
Insights: Russell Henley brings a strong all-around profile to TPC Southwind, with no major statistical weaknesses and top-25 marks in approach from 150-175 yards, proximity, scrambling, putting, bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring. The recent form is a little less convincing than the season-long numbers, however. He’s gained on approach in four straight starts and off the tee in three of his last four, but the approach spike that helped fuel his win at Colonial has faded, while he’s lost strokes around the greens in five of his last six. The putter has carried him over the last three weeks with multiple spike performances, making his recent results look better than the underlying ball-striking suggests. Southwind does offer plenty to like. Henley has gained off the tee in seven of eight appearances and on approach in six, including four straight, while his short-game and putting history here has been more volatile. He’s shown the ability to contend, finishing seventh in 2023 and sitting just four shots outside the playoff, but he’s only once put four rounds in the 60s together here. The early-round scoring profile is particularly appealing, and his 6-for-8 record of opening rounds in the 60s makes him an interesting First Round Leader or early-round exposure candidate. At +3500, I’m more interested in Henley as a dark-horse Top 10/Top 20 or FRL play than an outright, especially with his current form relying heavily on the putter. -C
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude SCR (61), PUTT (109), P5 (59)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 42/6/9/44
Southwind Results: 14/50/16/42/65/MC (12 of 22 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 4/18/71/WD/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Si Woo Kim arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field and arguably the best opportunity yet for his season-long numbers to finally translate into a win. He ranks third in the field in Tee-to-Green and Approach, first and third in key approach buckets, second in Birdie-or-Better Percentage and Par-4 Scoring, and sits near the top of the field in Bogey Avoidance. The ball-striking has remained encouraging as well, gaining across the board in both starts overseas before the putter let him down at the Rocket Classic. The biggest question remains the flat stick, which has been the one consistent weakness throughout his Southwind history. Course history is encouraging enough to keep him firmly on the radar. Kim has four rounds in the 60s in each of his last two appearances here, including an opening 65 last year that had him inside the top 10 entering Sunday. He also posted six straight weekend rounds in the 60s across his last three starts at Southwind and owns a First Round Leader here after opening with a 62 in 2022. The concern is that he has gained on approach in only half of his six starts and lost strokes putting in four of them, leaving him without a top-10 finish at the venue. At +3000, the price is appealing for a player whose statistical profile is second only to Scottie in this field, but I’m more comfortable with Each-Way, Top-10s and Matchups than making him a core outright. If the putter cooperates, however, this is exactly the type of spot where Si Woo can finally turn the season-long numbers into a win. -C
Tom Kim
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (96), PUTT (90), BOB 150175 (87)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 5/20/MC/1
Southwind Results: 50/24/13 (8 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 2/10
Insights: Tom Kim arrives at TPC Southwind with the best recent form in the field and another strong opportunity to build on what has been an impressive stretch of golf. He ranks fifth in the field in Approach, third in Proximity and Scrambling, second in Bogey Avoidance and sixth in Par-4 Scoring, while continuing to produce massive approach spikes with nearly six straight events gaining more than a stroke per round. The putter finally cooperated last week as he gained 1.5 strokes on the greens, but a quiet Sunday 70 kept him from turning a 63 into another win. Off the tee remains closer to field average and he’s lost strokes around the green in three of his last five, but the current approach play gives him enough margin to overcome those weaknesses. Southwind has shown both the upside and frustration with Kim. He owns eight rounds in the 60s across three appearances, including a 64 in the second round in 2024 and a 64 in the opening round in 2023 that put him inside the top five heading into the weekend. The problem has been finishing, with only 50% of his weekend rounds breaking 70 and two putting losses in three starts, including a major loss during his last appearance. His only comp is Albany, but two top-10s there—including a runner-up in 2024—provide enough evidence that the setup can suit him. The renovated Southwind will provide a fresh look after skipping last year’s event, but if the approach game continues to fire and the putter stays even, Kim has the profile to make another serious run. At +4500, the price is appealing for a player sitting 26th in the FedEx Cup with a win potentially putting him firmly into East Lake. -C
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (109)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 18/3/17/29
Southwind Results: 22/22/13/5/26/20 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: 5/6/7
Insights: Collin Morikawa arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest all-around statistical profiles in the field and the fifth-best overall event average. He ranks second in the field in Approach, sixth in Tee-to-Green, fifth in GIR, third in Bogey-or-Better and first in Birdie-or-Better Average, while also ranking inside the top 10 in multiple scoring and birdie buckets. The recent form supports the numbers, with four straight events gaining off the tee and on approach and back-to-back approach spikes heading into the week. Even better, the putter has quietly been a strength, gaining in four straight and only losing strokes twice in his last 11 starts. The concern is around the greens, where he ranks poorly in this field, and that becomes more important on Southwind’s tiny surfaces if he fails to find enough fairways. Course history is one of the biggest reasons to like Morikawa this week. He’s making his seventh straight start at Southwind and has never finished worse than 26th, with 17 of 24 career rounds in the 60s and five of six Sunday rounds under par. He also owns five approach gains and five off-the-tee gains across his six starts here, while gaining around the green in four, giving him a much more complete course profile than the season numbers might suggest. Last year’s T3 after opening 66-65 was particularly encouraging, with the only thing preventing a deeper run being a frozen putter over the weekend. At +2500, Morikawa feels like another strong outright option for a player sitting sixth in the FedEx Cup standings and already owning six other top-five finishes this season. With the course comfort, elite approach play and recent putting form all lining up, I’m comfortable staying on Morikawa as he looks for his second win of 2026 and a potential run at his first FedEx Cup title. -C