Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats or *Last Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Farmers Results: Finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: PGA West Stadium Course, Olympia Fields, Caves Valley Golf Club & Memorial Park Golf Course
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1400
*Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, PUTT, P3, P4, ER1
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Baycurrent)
FORM: 1/28/22/7
Farmers Results: 9/13/34/2/MC/25/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 3/3/8/25/28/49/MC/MC
Insights: Xander’s season debut comes this weekend at the Farmers, where he’s had quite a bit of success since the pandemic — 4 straight T35 performances with a T2 in 2021 and a T9 in 2024. That T9 was particularly impressive considering he lost almost 3 strokes on the greens that weekend. He didn’t play here last year, and many are seemingly weary of the price this week — probably because they haven’t seen him play competitive golf since his Win at Baycurrent in October — leaning to Aberg at a similar number instead. However, I’m all in on X-man this week. Frankly, I was surprised to see his number open around 15/1. Champ and I were talking Sunday night, and we both felt he’d be more around 10 or maybe even around 9/1. Being able to snag a 17/1 on him on Monday felt like good value for his upside, especially at a course he’s played so well. He always gains OTT here, he’s gained at least 3.5 strokes to the field on APP in 3 of his last 4 starts here, his ARG play has been a net-positive in 4 straight starts here, and his poor putting performance in 2024 was the first time he had lost strokes on the greens here since 2018. In 4 of his last 6 starts at the Farmers, he gained at least 2 strokes on the greens. Three times, he surpassed +3 strokes with the flat stick. Assuming he’s back to full health, getting Xander anywhere near 15/1 in a field without Scottie or Rory is just too good for me to pass up. -S
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (92), PUTT (106), BOB 175200 (123), P5 (128)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 175200, P5; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 13/30/2/30
Farmers Results: 56/MC/51/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/5/9/9/12/13/15/26/30/52
Insights: PC quietly checks every box in the Farmers build: long tracks, West Coast comfort, Poa putting, GIR, scrambling, and elite tee-to-green—good enough to sit No. 1 in the mixed model. The AmEx Thursday 63 and 9 of his last 12 rounds are sub-70 show the class in form. The concerns are both physical and mental—Torrey hasn’t been kind and the win drought dates back to the 2022 BMW—but that likely keeps ownership in check. From the clubhouse view, that makes him a sharp look in matchups and DFS where leverage matters, and the trend of needing a Top 10 here in the history bank is only part I am questioning about betting him this week. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (62), APP AVG (52)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP, APP 200+, SCR, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 3/3 (No SG for Baycurrent)
FORM: 1/19/40/10
Farmers Results: 25/50
Comp Results: 18/33/57/MC/MC
Insights: Is he him? The résumé is starting to scream yes. Only Rory and Scottie have longer active win streaks, and Gotterup just keeps stacking proof—wins in three straight seasons and carrying last year’s heater straight into 2026 with a Sony win including rounds of 63 & 64. He survived brutal conditions here last year for a Top 25, and now shows up in better form and a friendlier setup. Unless you’re betting on a letdown, stepping in front of this freight train feels risky. I’ll happily ride him in matchups; DFS ownership will be heavy, but that’s the price of backing a guy who’s very clearly trending into that tier.
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Ryan Gerard
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (76), APP 200+ (79)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude DD, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 1/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for AfrAsia Bank)
FORM: 2/2/2/MC
Farmers Results: 15 (69-74-74-70, 2025)
Comp Results: 2/9/44/51
Insights: Mr. 2-2-2 is cookin’, no doubt. Even while losing on approach last week, he still posted a T2 on the strength of a red-hot putter, gaining on the greens in two straight starts and here last year as well. Hard to see him falling off a cliff given his comfort in the wind, but this track can bite, and his only sub-70 came on the easier North Course. I’d be surprised if he’s in the runner-up or Top-5 mix again, but I trust a Top-20 far more than a missed cut. Get the legs right, catch a breather, and don’t be shocked if the next trophy comes back east at PGA National. -C
Nicolai Hojgaard
Odds: +5000
*Stats: Top 125 exclude PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, ER2
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/52/11/3
Farmers Results: 2 (67-66-73-70, 2024)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: If you only sift through PGA Tour and Majors data, then Nicolai’s last 4 events were a T14 at Baycurrent, MC at Sanderson, T55 at Wyndham, and T14 at The Open. Solid, but not great. However, if you expand your search to include Euro events, then you will see his 4 results from November to this past weekend — T3 at Abu Dhabi, T11 at Jumeirah, T52 at Dubai Invitational, and T4 last week at the Dubai Desert Classic. All this to say, A) he’s actually been playing, and B) he’s playing well. He doesn’t have much experience at Torrey, with just one start here in 2024, buuuutttttt, he came in 2nd — gaining over 3!!! strokes OTT and more than 1.5 strokes on the greens. That putting success on west-coast Poa stretched past only the Farmers, as he was a net-positive at both Pebble and Riviera in the ensuing weeks that year — both courses with similar agronomy as Torrey. All the tools are there for him to succeed this week, sitting in the top 20 in the field in T2G, OTT, APP, Carry Distance, P5 BOB, P3 scoring and APP 200+ over his last 24 rounds of PGA Tour golf. Now mix in his recent success on the Euro tour that I talked about, and you can see why. I’ve already locked him in for a T20 placement bet, while still considering a sprinkle on an outright. -S
Max Homa
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (105), ARD (109)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP AVG, BS, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3 (No SG for Baycurrent)
FORM: 27/9/40/18
Farmers Results: WD/13/1/MC/18/9/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 5/21/27/35/48/48/59/63/MC/MC
Insights: Homa was #1 in my early-week model, and honestly, he’s the first guy I thought of when I looked at the odds, anyway. Maybe it’s because I’m biased after winning an outright on him here in 2023, but you can do a lot worse betting Max out on the west coast. Outside of his WD last year, he’s had lasting success putting at Torrey. In fact, he’s 3rd in SG: P on west-coast Poa in the last 5 years, including top-25 in 3-putt avoidance on these surfaces. That’s important because it finally seems like Homa’s irons are back. After struggling for most of last year, he’s gained at least 1.8 strokes total on APP in every measured event since the Rocket Classic at Detroit — a total of 8 events in a row with shot tracker. All we need is Homa’s driver to cooperate, which is a battle in and of itself sometimes, but he’s gained with the big stick in 5 of those 8 recent events. Back at a course he’s comfortable playing, with his game trending in the right direction, the stars could align for Homasexuals this week. I’ve already bet him with 8 places each-way, expecting the number to move down due to him being a popular click, but he must not be that popular yet, considering he’s actually risen from 40 to 50 on B365 since Monday morning. -S
HaoTong Li
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (116), PUTT (122), P3 (122)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/55/10/8
Farmers Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 8
Insights: HaoTong put up four straight sub-70s last week, capped by a 64-68 weekend, and over two strokes gained on approach only boosts the confidence heading into this week, especially with PGA West Stadium lining up well as a comp to Torrey South. He flashed early at Sony with a first-round 66 before easing to a T55, but the form trend is clearly upward. Internationals tend to travel well to Torrey, and we’ve seen debutants get it done here before. At this number, with four DP World Tour wins on the résumé, he’s a clean each-way look in solid form. -C
Maverick McNealy
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (110), BOB 200+ (165), BA (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 200+; Top 25: DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 24/MC/13/23
Farmers Results: 52/37/31/30/MC/15/29
Comp Results: 3/19/20/27/32/37/40/63/71/MC/MC
Insights: You won’t see it in the raw form, but he quietly fired a Sunday 64 in a final-round pairing with JT to finish runner-up to Sweed at last year’s Genesis. Two weeks earlier he was T52 while losing off the tee and on the greens, then flipped those stats as conditions changed. He closed 2025 strong and carried that into 2026 with a T24 at Sony, gaining in all four categories, with only a Saturday 74 keeping him from the mix. There’s no reason to think he can’t deliver a solid first 36 and put himself in position for a second PGA Tour win (2024 RSM Classic). This week vs. Pebble is the internal debate—check the Wednesday newsletter to see where he lands on bet slip or hat tip. –C
Patrick Rodgers
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (76), BOB 200+ (95), ER1 (81)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ER1; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 1/3 (No SG for Bermuda)
FORM: 44/3/7/MC
Farmers Results: 56/9/MC/62/MC/9/MC/MC/4/MC
Comp Results: 16/37/40/44/52/64/70/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: I would be surprised to see P-Rod win an event like this. Not that it’s too long for him, because it’s not, but maybe it’s a bit too challenging given the inconsistencies of his play. When he’s on, meaning when he’s gaining with his driver and putter, it’s usually good enough o put himself in the mix somewhere in the top 10. When he’s off, he misses the cut and leaves bettors asking themselves “WTF was I thinking?” That being said, there’s reason to think he is positioned for a good showing this weekend, as he’s been in great form of late — highlighted by 3 T10s in his last 5 PGA outings, including Sony Open. That’s good news for bettors considering he has flashed upside at this course before. He has 3 T10s at the Farmers in the last 9 years, and he was right in the mix last year when the Genesis was played at Torrey — gaining massively with his driver and putter. Having yet to win on Tour, I can’t trust him to win with the inconsistencies on Approach, but I think there’s enough here for a placement bet. -S
Will Zalatoris
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (141), BOB 175200 (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 18/15/MC/54
Farmers Results: 13/MC/2/7/MC
Comp Results: 6/12/18/34/36/74
Insights: Is Willy Z back? Like actually back? It seems so, based on what he’s said to the media about his health and how his recent performances back him up. The Nedbank Golf Challenge (EURO) in early December was the first competitive event he played in over 6 months, and he came out ball-striking the shit out of it — gaining over 6.5 strokes combined OTT and APP. He even showcased some soft hands with excellent ARG numbers. The issue was his putter, which has been commonplace for him, but he found something on the greens last week at the AmEx. Keeping his form steady from the Nedbank, with the improvement in putting, Willy Z gained in every strokes-gained metric last week, which is a good sign for his form going forward. With 3 top-15 finishes at the Farmers since 2021, mixed in with plenty of success elsewhere on the west coast, WZ has the pedigree to win at Torrey. At the very least, a top-20 placement bet should be on your card to give you some exposure to his upside. -S