2026 Farmers Insurance Open - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models

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The Bettor Clubhouse

Jan 26, 2026

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Patio Preview

Torrey Pines Golf Course (North & South Course)
La Jolla, California

Brooks Koepka is officially BACK on the PGA Tour!
Two-course rotation this week
Playing typical Thurs-Sun schedule since no NFL to compete with this year
147 players, Top 65 & ties make cut
North Course
- Considered easier of the two courses (assuming no wind like R2 last year)
  - 2025 Round 1 Scoring Average: -1.8
  - 2025 Round 2 Scoring Average: +3.2
- One round will be played here (three at South)
- About 500 yards shorter than South
- No Shotlink at North Course
- Par 72; ~7,250 yards
- Greens: Bent mixed with Poa
  - Avg size: ~6,000 sq ft
- Narrow fairways around 25 yards on average
  - SG: OTT and Driving Accuracy most challenging on this course, as well as Par 3s
- If you like Showdown DFS contests, target this course in the first two rounds (again, assuming wind situation is not like it was R2 of 2025 tournament)
South Course
- Considered to be very difficult
- Golfers will play one of first two rounds here, and then both of weekend rounds
- Par 72; ~7,770 yards
  - Very long
- Greens: Poa Annua
  - Small average green size: ~5,000 sq ft
  - Bumpy and inconsistent greens that are challenging to putt on
  - Similar agronomy to that of Pebble Beach and Riviera
- Rees Jones renovations from William Bell original design
- 80+ bunkers but not much water at all (only 1 hole)
- Narrow fairways like North Course
- Plays above par every year since Covid
  - Five-year scoring average close to 72.5
    - PGA Tour Average ~70.5
- Birdie-or-Better rate 3% lower than Tour average
- Bogey Avoidance rate 4% higher than Tour Average
- Birdie-to-Bogey ratio just 0.94
  - PGA Tour Average 1.44
- Driver-heavy course: around 80% driver use last 5 years
  - 10%+ more than Tour Average
- Driving Accuracy about 9% below Tour average
- Predictably, Distance from Edge of Fairway is above Tour Average here due to narrow fairways
- Greens-in-Regulation rate is heavily affected by the wind here
  - Overall GIR% sub-60% last year when winds were up
    - Fairway GIR% 4% lower than Tour average
  - In 2024, overall GIR% almost 68% when winds were down
    - Fairway GIR% 5%+ over Tour Average and north of 80%
- Assuming tame winds, overall proximity about Tour average
- At least 70% of Approach shots from 150+ yards
- ARG shots will come from rough or sand about 70% of time
  - Rough is long and Scrambling ARG is considered difficult here
- Three-Putt Avoidance rate anywhere from 3.63% to 4.83% last 5 years
  - PGA Tour Average 2.83%
  - 3PA Rate from 25 feet+ anywhere from 11.13% to 14.5% last 5 years
    - PGA Tour Average 8.92%
- Average distance of birdie putts made anywhere from 9.3 feet to 11.6 feet last 5 years
  - PGA Tour Average around 9.5 feet
- Putting from 3-5 ft notoriously more challenging here than elsewhere due to green inconsistencies
  - Sub-85% five-year average vs 88.1% Tour Average
- Five-year Par-3 scoring average 3.11
  - 5Y P3 BOB% 11.3%
  - PGA Tour Averages 3.06, 13.2%
- Five-year Par-4 scoring average 4.13
  - 5Y P4 BOB% 13.6%
  - PGA Tour Averages 4.03, 17.1%
- Five-year Par-5 scoring average 4.72
  - 5Y P5 BOB% 38%
  - PGA Tour Averages 4.62, 45.9%

Recent Tournament History

2025: Harris English -8 (68-73-66-73); 1 Stroke Victory over Sam Stevens
2024: Matthieu Pavon -13 (69-65-72-69); 1 Stroke Victory over Nicolai Hojgaard
2023: Max Homa -13 (68-70-71-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Keegan Bradley
2022: Luke List -15 (67-68-72-66); Playoff Victory over Will Zalatoris
2021: Patrick Reed -14 (64-72-70-68); 5 Stroke Victory over 5 players
2020: Marc Leishman -15 (68-72-68-65); 1 Stroke Victory over Jon Rahm

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Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Total Driving
Greens-in-Regulation%

Tier 2

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua - west coast swing)
Bogey Avoidance %
Ball Speed
Carry Distance
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Overall Proximity
Par 5 BOB%
Par 3 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Total (Torrey Pines South)

Tier 3

Approach 150-200 Yards
Approach 200+ Yards
Three-Putt Avoidance % (Poa Annua - west coast swing)
Putting Inside 10 feet (Poa Annua - west coast swing - min 8 rds)
Scrambling from Rough %
Sand Saves

Champ’s Course Comps

Stadium Course
Olympia Fields
Caves Valley Golf Club
Memorial Park

Last 6 Farmers Insurance Open Trends

Odds
0-25: 2023, 2021
26-50: 2020
51-100: 2025, 2022
101+: 2024

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/6 (83%) trailed by 4 or more shots (1/6 led)
R2: 3/6 (50%) within 3 shots (0/6 led)
R3: 3/6 (50%) within 1 shot (2/6 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with a Top 20 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) made the cut in their previous start
5/6 (83%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with at least 2 Top 25 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with a Top 25 finish in their last 2 starts
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
0/6 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Farmers Insurance Open History
5/6 (83%) with at least 5 prior appearances
4/5 (80%) made the cut in their previous apperance
5/5 (100%) with a Top 10 finish within their last 6 appearances
2/5 (40%) with a Top 5 finish in their tournament history
1/6 (17%) won in their DEBUT

First Round Leader by Course Split
North Course: 100% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020)
South Course: 17% (2020)
*results can include instances where FRL from multiple courses, all get credited with a win.