Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Cognizant Results: Finishes at PGA National Resort (The Champion)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Renaissance Club, Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) & Ridgewood Country Club
Ryan Gerard
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (132), ARD (121), ARD/SCR AVG (86), BOB 175200 (87)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/45/11/2
Cognizant Results: 25/4
Comp Results: 74/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard is one of the most complete statistical fits in the field at the Cognizant Classic and was my first click of the week — a name I had circled specifically for the Florida swing. He ranks Top 75% in this field across the board with Top 25% marks in tee-to-green, off the tee, approach, GIR, proximity, scrambling, and par-3/4/5 scoring, which is exactly the balanced profile this course rewards. He’s gained off the tee and on approach in three of his last four starts and the putter has cooperated as well, fueling a strong recent run of 28-45-11-2-2-2 over his last six starts. Course history only strengthens the case (25th and 4th here), and the comfort level clearly shows. At +1600, this isn’t a speculative dart — it’s a conviction play. The form, fit, and timing all line up for Gerard to make serious noise and potentially turn this vision into a Florida swing breakthrough. Pony up for this horse or risk the FOMO. -C
Nicolai Hojgaard
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (108), PROX (94), ARD (83), BOB 175200 (89)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/22/4/52
Cognizant Results: 18/MC
Comp Results: 4/6/39/MC
Insights: In a watered-down field this week, Nicolai is going to be a popular click in both the betting markets and DFS, and rightfully so. The Dane is playing great golf right now, finishing 22nd at Farmers and 3rd at WMPO on the heels of 3 Top 11 finishes in Europe from November through January. On top of that, Hoj played well at this event last year, finishing in a tie for 18th while gaining an average of more than 0.8 strokes to the field on Approach and Putting per round. The biggest concern for him this week is his current tendency to be wayward off the tee. He is 111th in the field in Driving Accuracy and 114th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway over his last 24 PGA rounds, but considering he is 1st in Tee-to-Green, 7th in Approach, 16th in Par 5 Birdie-or-Better% and 19h in Bogey Avoidance should give him a solid floor. Given his popularity and likely inclusion on the Golf Tips Checker weekly chart, I am hesitant to include Hoj on my betting card at reduced odds, but he is a fine selection for placements, One and Done, or DFS — so long as you pair him with some pivots in your lineup. Check Wednesday’s newsletter for this week’s DFS pivots. -S
Shane Lowry
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (120), OTT/TD AVG (85), BS (78), ARD (127), BOB 200+ (133)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 24/8/26/3
Cognizant Results: 11/4/5/2/36/21/49/53
Comp Results: 12/MC
Insights: Like Hoj, Lowry has played well through the fall and winter in Europe, finishing T12 or better in 4 of 5 events from mid-October through January. His 2026 PGA debut resulted in a T8 at Pebble, and he followed that up with a T24 at Genesis. Now, he returns to PGA national as the co-betting favorite, where he’s had a ton of recent success, finishing T11 in 2025, T4 in 2024, T5 in 2023, and 2nd in 2022 (we were on him this year when Sepp came storming back to steal the win and we still haven’t forgotten about it). In fact, Lowry has had great success in Florida relative to this field, as he sits 1st in SG: Total over his last 24 Florida rounds. He can be loose with his driver, and he’s been known as an iffy putter, but he currently ranks 3rd in he field in 3-Putt Avoidance on Bermuda greens, and he’s 21st in the field in scrambling on these surfaces as well. The betting price is too rich for my blood on someone who has not won a solo event in years, but I wouldn’t hate using Lowry in One and Done. -S
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka and Will Zalatoris!
Daniel Berger
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (134), ARD/SCR AVG (110), PUTT (120), BOB (108), P3 (119)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/75/16/56
Cognizant Results: 25/MC/4/4/36/29/MC/MC/2
Comp Results: 15/17/23/55/MC/MC
Insights: Noleblooded Strait’ Vibin will draw plenty of local support and bettors this week, and on paper the tee-to-green profile absolutely fits. He ranks Top 75% in this field across the board with strong marks in total driving, approach, GIR, and long-iron buckets, and he’s gained off the tee in four straight starts. The ball-striking foundation is there, and his course history check the box, so the comfort level is not a question. That said, there are clear red flags for a player sitting under 30/1. The short game has been a weakness — around-the-green play and putting both lag statistically — and his recent form (MC/75/16/56) doesn’t exactly scream win equity at this price. Berger can absolutely contend if the irons spike and he putts to field average, but with shaky form and a vulnerable short game, the number feels tight. Local favorite or not, he’ll need a cleaner all-around week to justify +2700 and I could see flirting more with the cut line or the first page. -C
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB175200, P4, P5
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, P4; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 1/3 (No SG for Alfred Dunhill start)
FORM: MC/56/15/4
Cognizant Results: 16/MC/2/MC/26/51/33
Comp Results: 8/8/41
Insights: Koepka’s return to the PGA Tour hasn’t gone exactly to plan, as he finished T56 at Farmers and missed the cut in Phoenix, but the Florida man has had some success on this course in the past when it played more difficult, finishing T16 in 2022 and T2 in 2019. His putting history isn’t the best here, which is a concern considering he is in horrible form with the flat stick coming into this event. That being said, the price on Brooks is interesting from just name brand alone. Because of his putting issues, he’s 118th in Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 measured rounds (PGA + Majors), as well as outside the top 105 in BOB% on both Par 4s and Par 5s. Moreover, he’s been wayward off the tee and his GIR% leaves a lot to be desired. The move is to either ignore Brooks entirely, or ignore the stats entirely and play the upside/vibes with Koepka returning to Florida as a PGA Tour member in a watered-down field. I have yet to decide where I stand on that either or. -S
Haotong Li
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (102), PUTT (129), BOB (78), BOB 175200 (109), BOB AVG (84), P3 (134)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/11/8/55
Cognizant Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 21/55/MC/MC
Insights: Haotong jumped out to a solid start this season. His Sony Open performance was forgettable, as was his missed cut in Phoenix, but T8 and Amex and T11 at Farmers show he has upside to compete when his irons are on, which wasn’t the case at the WMPO. Over his last 24 PGA rounds, Li sits 4th in the field in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, and 18th in SG: APP, which pairs nicely with a Top 5 mark in Par 4 BOB% and Top 20 grades in Good Drive% and GIR%. The biggest issue I have is his putting performance on Bermuda. It’s his worst surface over the last 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months, which isn’t exactly ideal considering he’s never played a PGA event at this course before. That being said, putting is more random than the previously mentioned metrics in which he has excelled recently, so the price is certainly appetizing. At the very least, include Li in your DFS player pool and don’t hesitate to invest in a Top 20 around 2/1 odds. -S
Max McGreevy
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (106), SCR (119), PUTT (125), BOB (110)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/29/48/30
Cognizant Results: 4/MC/MC
Comp Results: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: McGreevy is one of those players whose underlying metrics pop more than the résumé. He grades out Top 75% in the field across the board with Top 25% marks in tee-to-green, approach, GIR, ball-striking, and key scoring buckets, and he’s gained off the tee and on approach in three of his last four while picking up strokes around the green in all four. On paper, that absolutely checks the boxes for this tough test this week. The concern is everything outside the model. Course history (4th, then two missed cuts) and brutal comp-course results suggest volatility (Mc…Greevy not McDreamy if you catch my drift), and the putter has lagged most weeks. At +3300, this is not a number we’re used to seeing next to his name, and in this field it still feels a touch short. Clubhouse recomendation is low dosage with DFS exposure and maybe a first-round leader dart to see if he can channel that low round of the day in the 3rd Round here last year. -C
Keith Mitchell
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude PUTT (132)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 52/41/11/44
Cognizant Results: 42/9/9/53/MC/1/MC
Comp Results: 12/36/50/53/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Killa Keith sets up as one of the more intriguing profiles this week. The 2019 champion at PGA National continues to stripe it off the tee, gaining OTT in three of his last four starts, and the irons showed real life at Torrey. Statistically, he grades out in the Top 75% of the field across the board with elite marks in total driving, GIR, and key approach buckets — exactly what you want at a demanding ball-striker’s course. The issue, as usual, is the putter and six inches between the…ears. He ranks outside the Top 100 in that category and has only gained on the greens once in his last four starts, though it’s worth noting he’s historically putted these surfaces well. The bigger concern is scoring consistency — just nine sub-70 rounds in 20 this season and no full four-round spike yet. +2700 is a tough buy into the outright. DFS exposure, matchups, and first-round leader markets make far more sense and less nauseating of a ride. -C
Alex Smalley
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (76), APP 175200 (98), ARD (91), SCR (96), ARD/SCR AVG (94), BOB 175200 (87), P3 (87)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/35/MC/44
Cognizant Results: 18/MC/55
Comp Results: 10/34/43/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Smalley profiles as a legitimate contender in this field, but also a bit of a volatility test at PGA National. The tee-to-green numbers are strong — gaining off the tee and on approach in three of his last four, plus positive putting in three of four — and he ranks Top 25% in this field in multiple ball-striking and scoring categories. His 18th-place finish here last year (including a Friday 64) proves he can go low on this course, and prior results in Bermuda, Japan, and Myrtle Beach show he can contend against similar-strength fields. The strokes gained: approach is the key. When they’re dialed, he spikes; when they’re slightly off, PGA National will expose you. Best exposure looks like placements, each-ways, and first-round leader markets where his spike-round potential carries more leverage than a full outright ticket. Curious to other chances I give him this week? See below. -C
90% confidence: Top 40. The all-around profile and current form suggest he should hang around the first few pages of the leaderboard.
50% confidence: Top 20. If the approach play trends toward his recent gains and he putts to his baseline, he’s firmly in the mix for a strong placement result.
10% confidence: Win or Top 3. In a weaker field, he absolutely has the upside to spike and follow the recent breakthrough narrative — but it requires four clean rounds, which hasn’t consistently shown up yet at this venue.
Will Zalatoris
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (119), APP 200+ 143), PUTT (89), BOB 175200 (163), BOB 200+ (79), BOB AVG (85)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, BOB 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, PROX, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/18/15/MC
Cognizant Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 11/MC/MC
Insights: Like Koepka, the idea of betting Zalatoris at this number in this field is appealing, but the context of the situation makes it a more challenging decision. This is his debut at this course, and while he showed well at the Amex (T18), his follow-up performance at the Farmers was less than ideal — missing the cut while losing strokes across the board after gaining across the board the week prior. The putter is a real weakness for Will right now, but his iron play has been solid all things considered, especially from 150-200 yards. Also, if he misses the fairway, it’s not by a ton, as he’s 15th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway over his last 24 rounds. That said, being outside the Top 70 in this field in Bogey Avoidance, GIR%, Par 5 BOB%, 3-Putt Avoidance (Bermuda) and Putting Inside 10 feet (Bermuda) tempers expectations a bit. Maybe a first round leader bet would be a good fit on WZ, as I’m not sure I trust him for 4 rounds just yet. For what it’s worth, he gained over a stroke to the field in the first round of Farmers and close to 2.5 strokes to the field in the first round at Amex. -S