Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Colonial Country Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Harbour Town Golf Links, Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) & TPC Southwind
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (116), SCR (76), BOB 150175 (88)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, BOB 150175, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 4/8/4/21
Colonial Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/4/9/10/17/40/54/MC
Insights: Sweeedddd enters Colonial as the rightful statistical favorite in this field, but the betting conversation becomes far more complicated at sub-10/1 on a course debut. That’s where comp courses matter, and fortunately for Ludvig backers, the profile checks plenty of boxes. Wins and high-end finishes at similar positional ball-striking layouts continue to support the fit, while the current form remains elite: 3 straight Top 10s, 2 Top 5s in his last 3 starts, 9 straight made cuts, and 5 Top 5s in just 11 starts this season. The ball-striking has been exactly what you’d expect from one of the premier talents in the world. He’s gained OTT in 4 straight and the approach play has been elite in 6 of his last 7 starts, including major spikes at THE PLAYERS and the PGA Championship. Statistically, he ranks 1st in this field Tee-to-Green, 1st in Approach, 1st in Birdie or Better, 2nd in Ball Striking, and Top 10 across every major scoring category. If there’s a weakness, it’s the same one that continues to follow him late on Sundays — the putter. He’s lost strokes on the greens in 3 of his last 4 starts and the confidence just doesn’t look fully there right now. The blade putter conversation will only continue to grow louder if this cold stretch continues. Around-the-green play can also get shaky at times, which matters at a course like Colonial where creativity and recovery are constantly tested. The talent and profile absolutely justify him being the favorite this week. The question is whether you want to pay this number on a debutant still searching for that killer closing stretch again. For me, this feels like one of the clearest “hat tip but no bet” situations on the board despite all the respect in the world for the current form and statistical dominance. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (82), APP 125150 (88), APP 175200 (125), BOB 125150 (88), BOB 175200 (100), LR2 (88)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BA, P3, P4, P5, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/49/25/3
Colonial Results: 16/58 (4 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 4/6/6/6/7/8/9/10/12/13/17/19/22/23/25/26/27/30/30/65/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russ feels like one of the most logical fits on the entire board this week at Colonial — which is exactly why the number feels just a touch too short. When you think of Colonial Country Club, you think precision, patience, bogey avoidance, and positional golf over raw power. That immediately brings Russ into the conversation. In fact, he graded out 1st in my custom model this week using the free Golf Betting System model builder (see model and link below), weighting variables like bogey avoidance, par-4 scoring, par-70 performance, Texas form, Bentgrass putting, driving accuracy, GIR, and SG: Tee-to-Green. The overall statistical fit is undeniable. In this field he ranks 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Early Round Scoring, and sits 6th overall across my key metrics. The concern? The current form isn’t nearly as sharp as the profile suggests. Outside of the T3 at Augusta, Henley has quietly cooled off a bit with the irons and putter both trending more negative than positive over his last five starts. The around-the-green game has been the one constant all season, but the approach play hasn’t had the same elite consistency we’re used to seeing from him. Colonial history is limited but quietly encouraging. He gained on approach and on the greens in both prior appearances here, including a T16 in 2023, though he lost strokes OTT and around the green both times. That’s notable because the current OTT form is actually stronger entering this week than it was in those prior starts. At the end of the day, this feels like one of those “perfect on paper” Colonial fits where the market fully knows it too. If this number drifted into the 20-25/1 range, I’d be far more aggressive. At current odds, it’s another respect-filled hat tip more than a full-send betting card addition for me. -C
Justin Thomas
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BA, P4, LR2
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4, LR2; Top 25: TD, ARD, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/13/23/77
Colonial Results: MC/40/10 (5 of 10 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 1/1/5/8/11/12/13/25/26/28/30/35/58/71/75/77/MC
Insights: JT feels like one of the most fascinating names on the board this week because the statistical profile screams “fade,” while the recent eye test and course setup scream “dangerous.” Colonial may end up being exactly the type of track that allows Justin to fully lean into what’s quietly become his strongest lane lately — shorter, positional Par 70s where he can club down, control the golf ball, and let elite creativity take over. The momentum angle is real as well. That Sunday 65 at the PGA Championship completely changed the tone around JT after what looked like another frustrating major week. If not for the Saturday 72, we may very well have been talking about a third PGA Championship victory. More importantly, the Cam Young putter switch finally appears to be stabilizing the weakest part of his game. After losing strokes putting in 4 of his first 6 starts this season, JT has now gained over a stroke on the greens in back-to-back starts. The numbers underneath remain ugly though. In this field, he ranks outside the Top 100 in five key statistical categories and sits 87th overall across the season-long stat profile. That’s exactly why I presented the fade case last week and why the outright price still feels uncomfortable. But this setup is very different than Aronimink. Colonial allows JT to throttle back, shape shots, rely on creativity, and lean into the same skillset that won him Harbour Town and Southwind. Add in the fact he ranks No. 1 in this field in Hanse course performances over the last five years and owns the most Bentgrass wins in the field, and suddenly the upside case becomes much easier to visualize. For me, JT has officially moved out of the fade category and firmly into the “very intriguing” pile this week. If I were choosing between the top names discussed so far, I’d lean JT over both Henley and Ludvig at current prices — though the number still makes it more of a calculated gamble than an auto-click outright. -C
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Additional Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Rickie Fowler, Ryo Hisatsune, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Robert MacIntyre, Hideki Matsuyama and Alex Smalley!
Rickie Fowler
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude GIR (51), APP 150175 (80), ARD (112), ARD/SCR AVG (61), BOB 175200 (72), P5 (72)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude GIR, APP 150175, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 60/2/9/8
Colonial Results: 16/37/6/57/MC/MC/14/MC/54/5/16/38 (23 of 42 Rounds in 60s; Low 63)
Comp Results: 6/8/8/13/15/15/18/58/64/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Rickie feels very live this week at Colonial and this type of weaker full-field event has historically been where he builds momentum before eventually breaking through with a win. Prior to the missed cut at the PGA Championship, Rickie rattled off finishes of 2nd, 9th, and 8th while gaining across the board statistically. OTT and APP have both gained in 4 straight starts and the putter has quietly turned positive again as well. Colonial is also a comfortable fit. This will already be his 13th appearance here with finishes of 5th, 6th, 14th, and 16th over the years. Even after the Hanse renovation, Rickie looked sharp last season ranking 4th in putting while firing rounds of 64 and 67 before fading Sunday. That fade may scare some bettors off, but I see more positives than negatives overall. The course fit makes sense too. Colonial rewards creativity, positional golf, and patience more than raw power — similar to places like TPC Sawgrass where Rickie has historically thrived. In this field, he ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 2nd in Early Round Scoring. At +2500, you’re still paying for the name a bit, but unlike others near the top of the board, both the form and fit actually justify the number. -C
Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (116), SCR (106), ARD/SCR AVG (90), PUTT (91), BOB 150175 (82), BOB 175200 (137)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 175200; Top 25 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BA, P3, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/35/45/65
Colonial Results: 6/MC (4 of 6 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 17/18/60/MC
Insights: Ryo burned no one last week outside of the outright dream never truly materializing. Four rounds in the 60s, a Saturday 65, and another cash on 3-ball markets showed the profile remains dangerous in the right setups. The biggest takeaway was the continued OTT and APP stability, gaining in both categories all four rounds while once again waiting for the putter to fully cooperate. That now makes back-to-back strong ball-striking weeks for Hisatsune heading into a course where he already owns a T6 finish. Last year he opened 66-67 and sat just four back entering the weekend before cooling off slightly. Interestingly, he gained on the greens all four rounds there while losing OTT each day, which is almost the opposite of what we’re seeing now. The appeal this week is simple: if the current driver and approach form pairs with a spike putting week like we saw during his February run (2-10-8), another Top 10 is absolutely in play. Add in the Texas connection after the Valero T8 and the fact he ranks Top 10 in my custom model (see Henley), and I’m more than willing to stay on the Ryo train another week — especially in placement and short-term markets. -C
Sungjae Im
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175, LR2
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, APP AVG, LR2; Top 25: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 9/MC/5/65
Colonial Results: 9/MC/15/MC/10/MC (6 of 18 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 6/7/11/12/12/13/17/21/35/37/40/42/46/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Sungjae feels like one of the toughest players in the field to properly price this week because the upside and frustration seem to arrive in the same tournament lately. The pattern has become familiar: quick starts, leaderboard presence, then a slow fade over the weekend as one part of the game falls apart. We saw it again both last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and Truist where Sungjae either led or sat right near the top before the approach play disappeared late. That’s really the key this week. The putter has quietly carried him lately with gains in 3 of his last 4 starts, helping offset approach play that has only gained once over that same stretch. The spikes are absolutely there though — like the Friday 61 at TPC Bunny Ranch where he gained nearly 3 strokes on approach and nearly 2 putting. The problem is the volatility that follows. Colonial does make sense stylistically. Plotter tracks that reward control and patience fit Sungjae far more than bomber setups, and his history here quietly supports that with Top 15 finishes in four of five completed starts including a T9 in 2024 and T10 previously. The concern is he’s rarely sustained all four rounds here either, with only one sub-70 Thursday in six starts and far better weekend scoring than early-round scoring overall. At 40/1 in this field, I honestly don’t hate it but recommend daily fantasy markets over a betting slip. The ceiling is there, the course fit is reasonable, and the hot stretches are clearly capable of winning-level golf. But betting Sungjae right now feels more like accepting the rollercoaster than confidently predicting the destination. -C
Tom Kim
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (109), PUTT (125), LR1 (147)
Rank: Top 75 exclude LR1; Top 25 exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 54/6/MC/MC
Colonial Results: 44/24 (4 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 68, 3 times)
Comp Results: 13/18/24/50/MC
Insights: Tom feels far more interesting this week than he did at the “bunny ranch” style setup last week. Colonial’s expected mid range winning score (-12 to -15) fits his profile much better, where precision iron play and patience matter more than needing to make birdies in bunches all four days. The approach game continues to trend elite as well, gaining over a stroke on the field in back-to-back starts and ranking 10th in APP and 3rd in APP AVG in this field. That’s the backbone of the case because the putter has been absolutely brutal lately, including his second-worst putting performance of 2026 last week. If the flat stick is even field average, the ceiling immediately changes. There are enough positives at Colonial to stay interested too. He gained on the greens here last year and now heads into his third appearance at the course, which often feels like the sweet spot for younger players figuring out Colonial’s nuances. Add in two career wins on Bentgrass and the strong Par 4/Bogey Avoidance profile, and I’m more than willing to go back to the well at this number. The risk is obvious — if the putter stays ice cold, he probably finishes T35 and frustrates everyone again. But if we get even a slight putting spike paired with the current iron play, his best Colonial finish and a Top 10 cash are very much on the table. -C
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/60/42/MC
Colonial Results: 6/MC (2 of 6 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 7/15/38/42/59/59/66
Insights: Bobby Mac is one of the stranger profiles near the top of the board this week because the strengths and weaknesses feel completely flipped from what you’d normally expect. The driver and putter have quietly been elite lately — 5th OTT, 5th PUTT, 4th in Birdie or Better, and 2nd in Birdie Average in this field — yet the approach game has been a major issue with gains in just 3 of 11 starts this season. That’s the sticking point for me at Colonial. These smaller greens put even more pressure on precise iron play, and I’m not convinced the current short-game and putting form alone can fully mask those approach concerns for four rounds. Last year’s T6 here came because he paired a hot putter with positive approach play, gaining over a stroke in both categories while firing the low round of the day Saturday with a 64. The current form doesn’t inspire much confidence either with back-to-back missed cuts in the first two majors of 2026 and only one approach gain in his last four starts. The talent level is obvious and the statistical upside remains intriguing, but until the irons show signs of life again, the odds still feel shorter than the profile deserves. Of the top names on the board, Bobby Mac carries some of the clearest red flags and fade vibes for me this week. -C
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (130), TD (117), OTT/TD AVG (124), APP 125150 (118), BS (106), BOB 150175 (102)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/71/53/12
Colonial Results: 36/10 (69-69-67-73-69-70-64-71)
Comp Results: 1/2/16/17/20/43/MC/MC
Insights: Dekiiii comes into the Charles Schwab Challenge at +2800 as one of the more uncomfortable high-end profiles in the field because the statistical split is doing two completely different things. The iron play and short game still look like Hideki—APP gains in 3 of 4, strong around-the-green consistency, and enough scoring metrics to suggest he can still grind a course—but the driver has completely lagged with four straight losses off the tee and five of his last six overall. That combination is what’s suppressing both ceiling and trust right now. The key question at Colonial is whether the club-down, positional setup can stabilize the tee-to-green floor enough for the elite approach game to take over. Historically, this course has been kind to him in spots (including a 10th in 2014 which he followed up with a WIN the next week at Memorial), and he’s shown flashes on bentgrass that keep him relevant here. But the current form trend is still uneven—approach and short game are holding, while OTT continues to drag the profile down. At +2800, this is less about a clean buy signal and more about timing. If the driver even partially stabilizes, the rest of the game is good enough to contend quickly on a course like this, especially given his bentgrass record and win equity when he’s even slightly sharp. But right now the profile still reads incomplete—too dependent on one phase carrying the load for four days. More monitor than aggressive bet, with live upside only if OTT shows early-week signs of life. -C
Alex Smalley
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 125150 (86), BOB 150175 (86), SCR (99), ARD/SCR AVG (77), BOB 175200 (80), P3 (90)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/17/7/2
Colonial Results: MC/WD/40/27 (3 of 11 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 5/44/62/65/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Smalley arrives rested and as one of the strongest underlying statistical profiles in the field, and the recent stretch is hard to ignore. Over the last month he’s paired elite ball-striking metrics with real results—multiple top-20s including a 2nd at the PGA Championship and a 7th in a Signature event—and in this field only a handful can match that sustained tee-to-green output. The combination of OTT stability (4/4 gains) and improving approach play gives him a very real contention ceiling. The concern is less about skill and more about conversion. Colonial has not been a clean fit historically (only 3 sub-70 rounds, zero top-25 in four starts, multiple SG losses in key areas), and while the current approach and putting gains are encouraging (3/4 APP, 4/4 PUTT), the finishing profile still hasn’t fully broken through on Sundays. Even with strong form, there’s still a lingering question about whether he can close when positioned to win rather than just contend. At +3000, this is a classic “form vs finish” decision. The baseline statistical profile says he absolutely belongs in this range given the consistency across all key tee-to-green categories, and the recent PGA performance confirms he can handle elite pressure to an extent. But until he proves he can close on a Sunday, especially at a course where he’s struggled to put all phases together, he remains more of a high-end placement play than a fully trusted outright anchor. -C