Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Doral Results: Finishes at Trump National Doral
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Harding Park, The Los Angeles Country Club & Quail Hollow Club
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (89), SCR (79), PUTT (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/7/5/7
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/14/16/50/MC
Insights: The biggest question with Collin right now is his health. That said, the form hasn’t really fallen off aside from the WD after 1 hole at the Players, as he’s finished T7 and T4 since then despite not looking quite right. On a course that demands so much distance, Collin may not be the best fit, but what he lacks in power, he makes up for in elite approach play — gaining strokes to the field with his irons in every measured event this season. The putter had even been on a roll up until Heritage, where he hemorrhaged strokes on the greens. All things considered, the price seems very appealing for a player as in-form as Collin, especially as a guy that has won in Florida, but the injury concerns mixed with the questionable course fit probably will keep me off again this week. EDIT: the longer the week goes, the more interested I am becoming in Collin as a contrarian bet/DFS play. -S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (65), APP 175200 (60), APP 200+ (141), PROX (145), APP AVG (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25 exclude DD, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/2/22/24
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/3/4
Insights: Scottie hasn’t won a golf tournament since January 25th — just over 3 months ago. The old Scottie would have 5 wins by now. What gives? In all seriousness, there were a couple questionable weeks for Scottie, specifically his approach play, but all is well in the world now with back-to-back 2nd place finishes in Augusta and Hilton Head — 2 very different styles of golf courses. On a course demanding not only distance, but precision with long irons and a great around-the-green game, Scottie usually would set up perfectly at a course like Doral. That said, he’s 66th in the field in Approach from 200+ over his last 24 rounds. Even with the T2 finishes in his last 2 starts, he’s 69th in the field in Approach from 200+ over his last 8 rounds, so the long irons have been a struggle — which is going to come into play on the Par 3s specifically this week. I’m not sure what to make of the long iron issue, but let’s get one thing clear: Scottie is still Scottie. He’s #1 in the field in SG: T2G this week, as well as 2nd in Bogey Avoidance on these types of long tracks. Not to mention, he’s the best in the field in SG: ARG. With wins at a few comps like API, Players and Quail, I’m not going to talk you off any Scottie exposure this week, but I’m also approaching it with some caution given his long irons issues. - S
Cameron Young
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (68), BOB 200+ (69)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/3/1/3
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 32/34/47/59
Insights: Cameron Young lands at Doral in a spot that makes a ton of sense on paper — and just enough hesitation underneath to keep things interesting. The form is strong (25/3/1/3), and the profile is exactly what you want here: gaining OTT, APP, and T2G in 4/4, with the putter positive in 3/4. This is a driver-heavy, long, Bermuda setup where his length and ball-striking should shine. Add in elite Florida results (win at Sawgrass, 3rd at Bay Hill, 2nd at Innisbrook, 4th at PGA National), and the fit checks out. The concern is where things can go sideways. Comp results haven’t matched expectations, and when he’s struggled, it’s been approach consistency and around-the-green play — both areas Doral can expose. The good news: those have trended up lately, with improved putting and his best ARD showing of the season at Heritage in his last start. There’s also context. The Masters letdown was expected after a final pairing with Rory McIlroy — this feels more like a reset than a warning sign. At +1200, you’re paying for the ceiling. No discount, and likely popular. Great fit fit, high ceiling, slight discomfort at the price — your call if you ride now or wait for Quail. -C
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Akshay Bhatia, Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, Min Woo Lee and Justin Rose!
Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (100), DD (97), OTT/DD AVG (99), SCR (88), ARD/SCR AVG (81)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 0/3, PUTT 3/3 (No SG for Indian Open)
FORM: 16/MC/MC/13
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 42/43/MC/MC
Insights: Smokeshow comes in with a mixed profile that leans more fade than buy this week. The recent form (16/MC/MC/13) is volatile, and while the win at Bay Hill checks the Florida box, it was heavily putter-driven (gained +2.7 strokes on the greens). He’s gained putting in every measured start this season, but around-the-green has slipped, losing in his last three, and approach has cooled since playing in the Indian Open — both areas that Doral tends to expose. Off the tee has been inconsistent, and with water in play plus a premium on distance, that’s not ideal. Comp history doesn’t offer much confidence either, with no top-40s and losses OTT and APP in most starts. At +4000, you’re banking on another putting spike to carry him, and that’s a tough bet on this type of track. If the short game doesn’t clean up and irons don’t rebound, this feels like a clear stay away. -C
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (97)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 25/24/6/56
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Chris Gotterup arrives in as a bit of an unknown at Doral, but the underlying profile makes him interesting at +2500. He’s gained OTT, APP, and PUTT in 4/4, with distance and total driving sitting as clear strengths — a great starting point for a long, demanding setup like this. The concern is around the edges: around-the-green has been inconsistent (gained in just half of last 6) and Florida results haven’t popped (best finish 18th at Bay Hill). That said, approach has quietly gained in every start this season, and the putter has flipped from a liability to a strength with five straight gains. If the driver shows up like expected and the irons stay steady, he has the tools to get back on the front page. Question is whether the short game holds up under pressure — if it does, +2500 starts to look light for the multiple time winner this year. -C
Russell Henley
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (149), OTT/DD AVG (104), APP 175200 (131), APP 200+ (147)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, APP 175200, APP 200+; Top 25: SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/3/MC/13
Doral Results: 56/47/28
Comp Results: 10/14/34/37/43/71/72/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: If you follow this sport religiously, you know Henley is not a bomber by any means. Usually, Russ does his damage with pristine iron play and an excellent short game, but that hasn’t been the case this year. His results have been a mixed bag, largely because his iron play has been lacking. In fact, he’s lost strokes on approach in 5 of his last 7 events, most recently losing over 3 strokes on approach over the course of the entire weekend in Hilton Head — where he typically plays very well. If his irons aren’t clicking, how are we to trust him on a monstrous track that requires distance off the tee? Henley is 69th out of the 72 golfers in the field in Driving Distance over his last 24 rounds. Not to mention, he’s 65th in the field in Approach from 200+ in that same span. For what it’s worth, Henley played Doral 3 times back in 2013-2015 and had 0 rounds in the 60s. I’m a Henley fan, but even I admit there’s not a ton to like on paper heading into this week. At the price, I’m avoiding. -S
Jake Knapp
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (54), GIR (73), ARD (75), ARD/SCR AVG (58), P3 (84)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, APP AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 74/11/6/MC
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 58/MC
Insights: Sitting 7th in the field in Driving Distance over his last 24 rounds and 5th in Approach from 200+ in that same time, Knapp is exactly the type of player that comes to mind this week, especially with how good he’s been putting this year — though his performance on the greens in Hilton Head was forgettable to say the least. Per RickRunGood, he lost over 10.5 strokes putting over the course of the event, which was by far his worst putting performance of his PGA career. A putter of his caliber usually bounces back after such an anomalous performance, but Bermuda surfaces have been Knapp’s worst throughout is career (he’s more of a Poa guy). He’s also way more inconsistent on difficult tracks than you would expect from someone in this price range. With losses OTT and ARG in 3 of his last 4, in addition to the putting uncertainty given his performance in Hilton Head and history on Bermuda surfaces, I’m not quite as excited to run to the window to bet Knapp as I thought I’d be before diving into the profile. I’m going to see what the market does with him this week, but I’m leaning towards a DFS-only type exposure to Knappy Boi. -S
Min Woo Lee
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude GIR (86), APP 200+ (72), APP AVG (51), PUTT (52)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 60/MC/3/32
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5/MC
Insights: MWL was cruising ahead of the Houston Open, where he finished T3 in his title defense a year removed from his first PGA win. However, it’s been a disaster since. His missed cut at the Masters was ugly, losing strokes across the board, and his performance at Heritage wasn’t much better. He lost about 5 strokes on the greens across 4 rounds in Hilton Head, which isn’t what we’re used to seeing from him. The question is whether MWL can reclaim the form he had prior to Augusta, or if he’s found his way into a slump. I’m not quite sure I know where I stand on that exact debate right now, but I do know MWL is 2nd in this field in SG: OTT and 6th in Distance over his last 24 rounds, as well as a career positive putter on Bermuda surfaces. It’s the iron play and the around-the-green play that holds him back at times, but the price honestly feels pretty fair all things considered. Definitely on my radar this week when it comes to betting card, DFS, etc. -S
Justin Rose
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, SCR
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, APP 200+, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+; Top 25: APP, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/13/MC/MC
Doral Results: 17/55/24/8/1/42/20/15/MC/41
Comp Results: 3/3/5/9/17/28/44/47/52/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Justin Rose is one of the more interesting bounce-back candidates this week, and the case starts with elite approach play — gaining in 4/4 and ranking highly in GIR, ball striking, and key iron buckets. He’s also a past winner here (2012), proving he can handle Doral’s length and demands, and comes off a strong Masters showing where he held the lead deep into Sunday. The trend line is quietly positive too: OTT, ARG, and putting have all gained in back-to-back starts after some inconsistency earlier in the season. The hesitation is real though — off-the-tee can still get loose, and new irons in the bag add this week leads to uncertainty at a course that punishes misses. At +3000, you’re betting on the experience + iron play carrying him, and it’s viable, but this also feels like a spot where many may wait for Quail Hollow, where his history also pops. If the recent all-around gains hold, he can contend — but with equipment changes in play, this leans more “monitor” than “must bet” this week. -C
Adam Scott
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (108), PUTT (86), BOB 200+ (95), P4 (86)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 24/21/56/11
Doral Results: 1/4/25/3/13/6/50/66/9/61/MC
Comp Results: 3/5/8/16/17/19/22/24/29/29/52/61/76/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Adam Scott feels like the classic “course horse with just enough form” play this week. The approach game has been dialed all season (gained in 4/4), and historically at Doral he’s paired that with consistent OTT gains (10 of 11 starts), which is exactly the combo you want on a long, demanding track like the Blue Monster. He’s won here before and has multiple top finishes, and that comfort shows up in the ball-striking profile. The concern—as always—is the putter and, to a lesser extent, around-the-green. He’s only gained putting in 1 of his last 4, and while around-the-green has been serviceable, it’s not a strength. That said, he doesn’t need a spike—just field average—to contend given how strong the tee-to-green baseline is right now. In his win here, he gained big on approach and was positive everywhere else without needing a putting outlier, which is the exact blueprint this week. At +3500, you’re betting on elite ball-striking and course history carrying him, with the putter behaving just enough. Feels like a strong first round leader/placement look with a justified outright sprinkle and if those don’t tickle your fancy, try Top Aussie market. -C