Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:30 AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BERM Results: Finishes at the Bermuda Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course), Colonial Country Club, & Waialae Country Club
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Ben James
Odds: +1100
Stats: n/a
Top 75% Rank: n/a
Top 25% Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/2/3/38
BERM Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: n/a
Insights: Ben James was one of the first names that came to mind as a potential winner if he showed up in Bermuda, and three straight Top 5s certainly haven't done anything to change that opinion. The underlying numbers have been every bit as impressive as the finishes. James has gained OTT in nine of his last 10 starts, with his three best performances of that stretch coming in his last three, while APP has gained in four straight with elite spikes in two of the last three. Even the putter, often the easiest place for a young player to lose strokes, has now gained in eight consecutive starts. ARG remains the least trustworthy part of the profile with gains in only half of his last eight, but we're searching pretty hard for problems at this point. He arrives ranked 33rd Data Golf and has gone 3rd-2nd-5th over his last three, so there's little mystery why the books hung +1100. The problem is Port Royal history has repeatedly told us we don't need to pay for favorites, and James will be making his course debut with no real comp history to lean on. If he had a couple strong trips around this place, I might be tempted to ignore the price—or even find a creative parlay to juice it—but 11/1 is asking too much outright. Still, this might be the clearest Hat Tip we write all year.
Ben Kohles
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude BOB 175200 (88), BOB 200+ (97)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 2/2, PUTT 2/2
FORM: 17/13/15/27
BERM Results: 61/57/39 (3 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/27/34/41/52/53/62/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Ben Kohles might be the truest test of model versus gut for me this week. Put him next to Ben James and there's an obvious difference in talent, performance and expectation, yet Kohles is sitting there at +3000 with one of the most complete statistical profiles in this field. He's Top 75 across every key metric and Top 25% in nearly everything outside Total Driving, ARG and a few of the birdie-distance buckets, while his last two measured starts produced gains across APP, ARG and putting. The results haven't been flashy, but finishes of 17-13-15-27 certainly aren't giving us a reason to run either. Port Royal is where the hesitation comes in. Three appearances have produced finishes of just 61-57-39 and only three rounds in the 60s, but buried inside those results are a 64 and 65—including the low round of the day with that Saturday 64 during his debut. Add a T5 at the RSM and there's enough evidence that this type of golf can suit him. Kohles is still chasing that first PGA TOUR win and we've seen enough close calls to know that backing him can get sweaty, although he did close the door on the Korn Ferry Tour just 14 starts ago. At 30/1, this feels a lot like some of our Doug Ghim decisions from weeks past: the numbers keep screaming bet while the price keeps screaming otherwise. I'm very close to making Kohles the first outright click of the week, but at minimum he's going into DFS, 3-balls and the FRL conversation. I think he gives us a sweat this week—the only question is how much we're willing to pay to join him.
Andrew Novak
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, BS, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA, P4
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, PROX, BS, PUTT, P4
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/7/MC/MC
BERM Results: 2/45/17/MC (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 7/11/12/26/35/40/54/73/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Novak has enough going for him that another run at Port Royal feels very much in play. The recent results have turned around with finishes of T7 and T17 following back-to-back missed cuts, and more importantly, the underlying game has come with them. He's gained OTT and APP in three of his last four, the putter has gained in back-to-back starts after five straight losses, and the short game has been remarkably consistent with gains in six of his last eight. The irons have been a little sporadic since a dip at the John Deere, but Novak just posted his fifth-best APP performance of 2026 at the Biltmore while gaining across the board outside of ARG. The comps certainly don't hurt either with a T7 at the RSM, T11 at Colonial and T12 at the Sony. Then there's Port Royal, where he's broken 70 in 10 of 14 rounds and nearly won this thing two years ago. Novak entered Sunday tied for the lead after a Saturday 62 before playing partner Rafael Campos beat him by three, and we've already seen this travel schedule work after he finished T16 in Japan the week before that runner-up. This time he arrives off a T17 at the Biltmore, so another Top 5 would hardly surprise me. My hesitation is simply the +2800 in a tournament that has consistently rewarded us for looking farther down the board. Novak checks enough boxes to deserve respect near the top, but won’t gather exposure from me this week.
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Zac Blair, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Rico Hoey,
Kevin Roy, Davis Thompson, and Kevin Yu!
Zac Blair
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 1/2, PUTT 1/2
FORM: 24/21/53/MC
BERM Results: 9/MC/57 (4 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 3/6/7/29/30/32/33/48/50/55/57/57/62/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Zac Blair has been a little boom-or-bust lately, but that's not necessarily a bad profile to bring to a tournament where we've already learned perfect form isn't required. His last 10 starts include finishes of 24-21-53-MC-MC-4-MC-50-13-8, giving us three Top 15s and a Top 5 mixed among plenty of forgettable weeks. The tricky part is that much of his recent work has come on the Korn Ferry Tour where we don't have the same strokes-gained data, and he's gained on the field in just two of his last seven measured PGA TOUR starts. That leaves some concern that the model is remembering Blair's 2026 regular season more than his current game. Port Royal gives me more reason to stick around. Blair finished T9 here last year after entering the weekend T7 and closing with a 68, and even his missed cut in 2024 deserves a closer look after rebounding from an opening 76 with a Friday 65. The comps check another box with a Top 10 at the RSM last year and a pair of Top 6s at the Sony, even if those Hawaii results came nearly a decade ago. Blair isn't going to win us over with the driver, but the APP, scrambling, bogey avoidance and par-3 profile fit plenty of what we're looking for this week. At +4000 I'd certainly prefer a little more room, but the recent reps and proof that he can reach the first page at Port Royal have me intrigued again. Placements and DFS are firmly in play, and I'm not completely dismissing the outright until we see where the rest of the card lands.
Emiliano Grillo
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TD, APP
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 46/MC/MC/31
BERM Results: 34 (66-72-70-71, 2021)
Comp Results: 1/3/7/8/16/18/19/21/22/24/33/42/47/47/55/63/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Grillo hasn't given us much in the results column lately, but there are enough signs underneath the hood to make +6000 pretty interesting this week. The short game has been ugly, particularly ARG and putting over his last two starts, but the irons have flashed elite upside twice in his last four. That includes his best APP performance of 2026 last week in Utah, gaining more than two weighted strokes per round and over 8.5 strokes across four rounds, while we also saw one of his better OTT performances of the season at the Wyndham. That hasn't translated to finishes with a T46 and two missed cuts over his last three, but at 60/1 I'm much more willing to buy the underlying spikes than I would be near the top of this board. Grillo has only played Port Royal once, back in 2021, but he opened with a 66 to sit T7 and just three off the lead, then remained inside the Top 15 through Saturday before a Sunday 71 dropped him to T34. The comps make the case even more intriguing. One of his two PGA TOUR wins came at Colonial, while he also owns a Top 10 at Waialae and several other strong finishes across our comp courses. I'm not ready for a complete buy with only one Bermuda appearance and a short game that could become an adventure around these greens, but the combination of Total Driving, potentially elite APP and a proven comp-course ceiling is awfully intriguing at 60/1. Grillo looks like a great DFS pivot, and I'll be digging deeper into the 3-ball and matchup markets before deciding whether that 60 is worth a small dip of the toe.
Lee Hodges
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (145), SCR (118), ARD/SCR AVG (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 0/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 33/13/72/MC
BERM Results: 61/71 (0 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 70 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/5/6/10/12/29/35/35/53/54/57/MC/MC
Insights: Lee Hodges is a tough one because there are pieces of the profile that make plenty of sense for Port Royal, but his history here is about as ugly as it gets. Hodges has played eight competitive rounds in Bermuda without breaking 70, finishing T61 and T71 in his two appearances, and he's still searching for his first Top 60 at the course. That's difficult to ignore at +4500, especially with a short game that continues to be the obvious weakness—he hasn't gained ARG in any of his last three measured starts and enters outside the Top 100 in both ARG and scrambling. The ball striking gives us something to work with, though. OTT has gained in three straight and APP in two of three, while the season-long profile puts him inside the Top 25% in most of our key categories outside of APP itself, 200+, short game, putting and P4 scoring. The comps are considerably more encouraging than Port Royal, with two Top 5s at the RSM and two Top 10s at the Sony, including a T6 earlier this year. We've also seen how high the ceiling can get when the putter cooperates—his best putting performance of 2026 came at the John Deere and produced his only Top 5 of the season. That's the problem: Hodges feels boom-or-bust, and two trips to Bermuda have been firmly on the bust side. The comp history gives me enough to consider placements or use him as a lower-owned DFS pivot, but until he proves he can actually score around Port Royal, I'm not particularly interested in finding out with an outright ticket.
Rico Hoey
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/39/25/15
BERM Results: 22/17 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 7/17/50/59/66/MC/MC
Insights: Ricooooo returns to Port Royal for the third straight year, and while finishes of T22 and T17 don't exactly jump off the page, a closer look gives us plenty to like. Both appearances started slowly, yet Hoey has still broken 70 in five of eight rounds here, including all four Friday and Saturday rounds, showing he has been able to figure this place out once settled in. The comp history adds to the case with a Top 10 at the RSM last year and T17 at Colonial this year, and most of the damage in those starts came on the greens while OTT and APP were generally above average. That's important because those are exactly the parts of his game trending right now. Hoey posted his second-best OTT performance of the season last week in Utah, his fourth-best APP performance two starts ago at the Biltmore and even flashed his fifth-best putting week of 2026 at the Wyndham three starts back. He's now made seven straight cuts with finishes of 10th, 39th, 25th and 15th over his last four. Do I trust the putter? Not a chance, and the short game could make for a few sweaty moments around these greens. But the combination of Total Driving, long-iron play and birdie-making upside fits what we're looking for, while +3000 feels much more playable than some of the other names around him. I'm willing to take a shot on Hoey this week, with another Top 20 firmly in play and enough upside to see him hanging around the Top 5 or 10 come Sunday.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (120), APP 175200 (134), APP AVG (81)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 13/32/24/19
BERM Results: 34/8/MC (5 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 13/45/46/46/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Roy feels like one of those players where the profile keeps pulling me in while the price and course history keep pushing me back. He enters Bermuda off four straight Top 32 finishes, including a solid 66-68 weekend at the Baycurrent, and the underlying game has been trending in the right direction. Before losing on APP in Utah, Roy had gained with the irons in four straight, while OTT has now been positive in nine consecutive starts. The putter remains the roller coaster it has been all year, although even there we’ve seen some improvement with gains in four of his last seven after losing in seven of the previous nine. Port Royal has produced a little bit of everything in three appearances. Roy finished 8th in 2023 behind an opening 64 and closing 65, but last year managed only one round in the 60s and followed a Friday 66 that put him inside the Top 20 with a Sunday 75 to fall back to T34. The comps don’t give us much more conviction, with no Top 10s and a T13 at the Sony earlier this year his best result. I like the Total Driving, birdie-making and long-iron profile for Port Royal, and this feels like a good time to be buying Roy’s game. I’m just not convinced +3000 is the way I want to do it. In a field where it’s tough to truly trust anyone—and at an event that has consistently rewarded going deeper down the board—I may be much more comfortable attacking Roy through placements or matchups while saving the outright bullets for bigger numbers.
Davis Thompson
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (127), ARD (108), PUTT (146)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 0/3
FORM: 54/62/MC/14
BERM Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 17/23/25/35/53/54/57/60/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: DT is going to be an easy name to talk yourself into at +4000 if you're willing to lean on the season-long numbers, but I'm having a hard time getting there. The profile still looks plenty good on paper with Top 25% ranks in TG, Total Driving, APP, GIR, Ball Striking and Par-4 scoring, but much of that work was done before his game started sliding at the end of the regular season. Thompson hasn't finished better than T54 in three Fall starts, never threatened last week at the Baycurrent and has gained OTT in just one of his last three while failing to gain with the putter in any of them. This will also be his Port Royal debut, so we're left looking toward the comps for some encouragement and there isn't much. A T17 at Colonial is his only Top 20, with a pair of Top 25s at the RSM, but there's an awful lot of red in the strokes-gained columns across those comp starts—something that has become nightmare fuel throughout 2026. Some will see Davis Thompson sitting there at 40/1 in this field and happily take the chance, and I understand it. At his best he's certainly better than plenty of the names around him on this board. But right now that feels more like betting the name and numbers he produced months ago than the golfer arriving in Bermuda. With no Port Royal history and very little current form to grab onto, I'll let somebody else find out whether this is the week the old Thompson returns.
Kevin Yu
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (126), SCR (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 59/32/24/4
BERM Results: MC/MC/30/3 (6 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 11/21/35/54/61/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Clubhouse loves YUUU, but the books aren't exactly giving us much room to show it this week. Yu comes in at just +2500 despite results heading the wrong direction over his last four starts, capped by a pretty pitiful showing at the Baycurrent last week with some of our bankroll along for the ride. I'm willing to mostly write that one off considering the underlying game had been plenty solid beforehand, with OTT and APP gains in each of his previous three starts, and the season-long profile still fits with Top 25% ranks in TG, Total Driving, GIR, Ball Striking and plenty of the birdie-making categories. Port Royal is where things get a little harder to swallow. Yu finished 3rd on debut in 2023 and broke 70 in five of his first seven rounds here, but he's since missed back-to-back cuts and has only broken 70 twice in his last seven trips around the course. The comps aren't screaming bet either, although an 11th at Sea Island in 2024 and Top 25 at the Sony at least give us something to work with, gaining OTT and putting in both despite losing on approach. Yu is a PGA TOUR winner and that win came during the Fall at Sanderson Farms, so winning this type of event certainly isn't foreign to him. Still, +2500 is a tough ask at a tournament where six of the last seven winners have come from 50/1 or deeper. Am I blinded by last week's disappointment or blinded by the odds? Maybe a little of both, but Tuesday feels like a Hat Tip. I'll gladly go back to the well in matchups or a full-tournament head-to-head, but at 25/1, someone else can take the outright ticket.