Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BMW Results: Finishes at BMW Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Valhalla Golf Club, Detroit Golf Club & Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
Sam Burns
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (91), ARD (113), ARD/SCR AVG (85), BOB 175200 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: GIR, PROX, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/3/12/2
BMW Results: 4/2/15/19/8
Comp Results: 15/30/42/MC
Insights: Oh how it Burns! One of the easiest players to make a case for this week, but the +1600 number forces a tougher decision after another Sunday letdown. He now has four Top-4 finishes in his last six starts, has gained on Approach in four straight and continues to put himself in position even after nearly a month break. Last week was another perfect example: after a slow start, Burns fired a Saturday 62 to reach the final pairing with Scottie, only to struggle badly off the tee Sunday and post one of the worst rounds in the field. The profile remains excellent, with steady putting gains all year and elite Approach play carrying him through the recent stretch, but strokes gained clutch is far from tops of the board. The BMW history deserves plenty of respect, with back-to-back top-4 finishes in his last two appearances, including a runner-up in 2022, while Olympia Fields in 2023 gives him another strong comp. The concern isn’t whether Burns can contend — he clearly can — it’s whether he can finally finish the job when he gets there. I thought playing with Scottie on Sunday would of propelled him not one of the worst in the field. Now at +1600, I’m leaning towards hat tip week, but check out tomorrow’s newletter for my final decision.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (122), SCR (95), ARD/SCR AVG (79), P5 (76)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 66/40/7/32
BMW Results: 12/11/4/8/4/12/19/5/58/42/4/8/59/1/37
Comp Results: 1/4/12/12
Insights: Rory is a player I’m willing to watch rather than chase this week, even with the +1600 price looking far more appealing than it did last week. The BMW résumé is excellent, with a win in 2012 and best in the field among players with at least three starts over the last six seasons (see table below). The problem is the current version of Rory. He admitted last week that he felt lost with his swing and needed the tournament simply to shake off the rust, and the numbers backed that up with his first off-the-tee loss of the season. The approach game has also declined since June, the around-the-green play hasn’t bailed him out since Augusta, and the putter has been either spiking or sitting near the bottom of the field. There are a few things to cling to, including his win at the number one comp this week Valhalla and the fact that he knows how to handle this part of the country, but his 50th at Bellerive in 2018 offers little encouragement. The second consecutive start should help, and at nearly double the price from last week there is certainly more value if you believe he can flip the switch quickly. I’m just not seeing enough evidence that happens immediately. DFS and round match-ups if books want to get generous, but I’d rather wait another week before going full throttle.
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +280
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (78), APP 200+ (54), PROX (78), BOB 175200 (106)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/2/4/MC
BMW Results: 1/33/2/3/22/20
Comp Results: 2/8/20/MC
Insights: Scottie, Scottie, Scottie. Obviously the player everyone is trying to beat this week, and after what happened at St. Jude, it’s hard to argue with that. The 16-start winless drought is gone in spectacular fashion, with Scottie winning by eight while posting the best Approach and Putting performances of his career according to DataGolf. He also gained across all four key SG categories and now owns four straight starts gaining off the tee, three straight on Approach, around the greens and with the putter. The season-long profile remains ridiculous, ranking 1st in the field in Tee to Green, GIR, Ball Striking, Scrambling, Birdie or Better, Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 scoring, among others. The BMW résumé only adds to the case, with a win in 2022, runner-up in 2023 and another 3rd in 2024, while his comp results at Valhalla and other longer classical setups provide plenty of encouragement outside of the jail cell. The only question is whether we’re paying too much after an eight-shot victory, with the number now down to +280 after being available around +500 last week. We know Scheffler can win in bunches, and the model gap actually grew from roughly 800 points last week to 1,300 this week (see top 5 below), so there’s no statistical reason to get cute. I’ll happily acknowledge he’s the most likely winner, but at this price tough to be interested even when the profile is as close to bulletproof as it gets.
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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, and Hideki Matsuyama!
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 5/MC/MC/13
BMW Results: 13/15/64/31
Comp Results: 8/15/17/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels feels like one of the more appealing names in this range, especially after finally putting the full game together again last week. The season-long profile isn’t as impressive as some of the favorites, but his current form deserves more weight, with a 5th at St. Jude and wins at the U.S. Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson, along with a 3rd at Memorial and 5th at the Travelers. More importantly, he gained across all five categories last week, including his third-best Approach performance of the season after back-to-back losses. That feels like a major positive heading into Bellerive, particularly for a player whose ceiling is already proven when the irons are cooperating. The course setup also makes sense, with a longer classical layout, larger green complexes and Bentgrass putting all playing into Clark’s strengths. There isn’t much course history to lean on, with no BMW start last year and no Bellerive appearance in 2018, while his comp résumé is only modest. But I’m not overly concerned about that given how well he has played on similar setups this season. At +3000, the number is enough to get my attention, and with Clark continuing to sit inside my top 10, I’m comfortable having exposure here in all markets.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (54), PUTT (72), BOB 175200 (104)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/MC/3/4
BMW Results: 17/28/2/48/6
Comp Results: 2/6/8/MC
Insights: Fitzy has one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field, but I’m having a hard time getting past the +2200 price in this particular setup. He ranks 2nd in the field by season-long profile and sits 2nd in Tee to Green and Approach, while also ranking inside the top 10 in Bogey or Better, Bogey Avoidance and Par 3, Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. The recent form is encouraging too, with a 12th-MC-3rd-4th stretch and gains across all four key SG categories last week. The approach bounced back after the loss at The Open, and the putter continues to show enough spikes to keep the ceiling intact. The bigger concern remains off the tee, where he remains more field average over above average and far from the player who ripped through the middle of the season with three wins in four starts. The Bellerive setup also doesn’t scream Fitzpatrick primarily due to the missed cut at the 2018 PGA. His BMW history is solid, particularly at Olympia Fields where he finished 2nd in 2023 and 6th in 2020, but I’m more interested in DFS and potentially placement markets than an outright at this number. He is a player I have interest in next week if we can see signs; however, at this time feels like another off-the-pace T12 he spun out last week.
Tommy Fleetwod
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (119), BOB 175200 (114)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/4/13/14
BMW Results: 4/5/25/11/8
Comp Results: 25/26/MC
Insights: Tommy’s BMW profile is strong enough to explain the short number, but I’m not convinced it’s strong enough to pay +1800. He sits inside the top five in the field in Tee to Green, Around the Green, Scrambling, Around+Scrambling Average, Bogey or Better, Bogey Avoidance, Par 3 and Par 5 scoring, while gaining in all four key SG categories in three of his last four starts. The BMW history is also excellent, with four straight starts gaining across the board and back-to-back top-5 finishes, including a runner-up last year. The current form is solid as well, but there are a few cracks. Approach cooled last week, the putter lost for the second time in three starts, and despite finishing 7th, he never really felt like he was in position to win after sitting 2nd following Thursday. He also needed an elite scrambling performance to keep the result afloat. There’s plenty to like here, especially with how well he’s consistently played this event, but at +1800 I’m struggling to find enough upside compared to the other names around him. The profile says contender, the price says bet, and I’m siding with the latter. On the short list for hat tip of the week without a doubt.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (90), GIR (93), APP 200+ (91), PUTT (76), BA (77)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, P5
Top 25% Rank: APP, APP 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/MC/13/1
BMW Results: 7/26/1/35/17/40
Comp Results: 1/3/12/13/40
Insights: BDV enters the final fifty with the profile to make another run, but there are enough inconsistencies to make this a tougher outright decision at +2500. He ranks inside the top 25 percent of the field in Approach, Approach 175-200 and Par 3 scoring, while gaining on Approach in four straight starts and posting his fourth-best approach performance of the season last week. The ceiling is clearly there, especially after winning the 2023 BMW at Olympia Fields, and his 3rd at the 2024 PGA at Valhalla adds another strong classical-course comp to the résumé. The problem is the volatility off the tee and with the putter, with four putting losses in his last seven starts and the driver costing him again Sunday at St. Jude. Bellerive is a new test, so there isn’t the same course-history safety net as some others in the field, but the BMW and Valhalla results suggest the setup can suit him. At +2500, the upside is obvious, but the current profile feels more like a player to target in matchups or a small first round leader sprinkle than someone I want to chase for all 72 holes.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (58), PUTT (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, APP 3/4
FORM: 2/42/6/9
BMW Results: 19/5/31/67/29/28/41/58/20
Comp Results: 14/31/42/57/58/84/MC/MC
Insights: SWK arrives with the statistical profile to make another run, but this feels like a much tougher spot to trust after last week’s runner-up. He’s 4th in the field by overall ranking and sits inside the top six in Tee to Green, Approach, Approach Average, Birdie or Better, Birdie Average, Bogey Avoidance, Par 3 and Par 4 scoring. The ball-striking also continues to trend the right way, with his best Off the Tee performance of the season and 4th-best Approach week of the year at St. Jude. The only real problem was the putter, which was essentially field average and kept him from putting more pressure on Scottie. Bellerive does offer some encouraging history, with his last two BMW Championship appearances producing his best finishes here, including a closing 67 last year and a 5th in 2024. But the broader profile is less convincing, with a best comp result of just 14th at the Rocket Classic and only 24th in this field when looking at longer-course performance (top 10 seen below). Once you layer in BMW history, classical-course results, bentgrass greens and the Rees Jones design, the profile starts looking more like a Top-20 candidate than someone I want to chase at +2800. After backing him last week, I’m more inclined to let the price do the talking this time. A small first round leader sprinkle could scratch the FOMO itch, and a live bet is certainly in play if the ball-striking carries over, but I’m likely watching from the sidelines rather than going back to the well at the same level.
Jake Knapp
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (83), ARD (123), ARD/SCR AVG (89), P3 (91)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, P3
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/MC/13/MC
BMW Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4/31/MC/MC
Insights: Knapptime makes his BMW Championship debut with plenty of momentum after another strong ball-striking week at TPC Southwind. He finished T7 last week while ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 12th in Approach, 6th in Ball Striking and 4th in Tee to Green, with the driver producing his 2nd-best performance of the season. The approach game continues to trend in the right direction as well, with gains in three of his last five starts, while last week’s positive Around-the-Green performance was only his second in nine starts. The putter was slightly negative, but that’s a category where he’s shown considerably more upside throughout the season. The bigger question is whether that momentum can translate to Bellerive without any course history to lean on. The Rocket Classic remains the strongest comp, while his ability to combine distance with strong approach play from both shorter wedges and 175+ yards fits a course featuring several very short and very long par 4s. Knapp also ranks inside the top 20 on Tour in driving distance, giving him the firepower to attack this layout. At +4000, there is plenty of upside for a player still searching for his first top-five since February, and with a potential for his first Tour Championship appearance—there’s plenty of motivation. I prefer Wyndham Clark slightly among the similar profiles, but intriguing Each-Way and placement odds give options if you’re willing to back the debut.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/7/5/3
BMW Results: 26/WD/WD/35/46/3/3/15/47/24/7/20
Comp Results: 3/5/13/13/21/35/35/WD/WD/MC/
Insights: Hideki comes into Bellerive riding one of the strongest stretches of form in the field, with finishes of 3rd, 5th, 7th and 7th over his last four starts and six straight top-15s overall. More importantly, the biggest question mark in his game all season—the driver—has finally started to cooperate. Matsuyama has gained Off the Tee in six straight events, including his best OTT performance of the season last week, while his approach play has remained elite with the 2nd-best approach performance last week and his best just three starts ago at the Rocket Classic. At St. Jude, he ranked 5th OTT, 5rd in Approach and 2nd in Tee to Green, showing the complete ball-striking profile is starting to come together. Bellerive also gives us some encouraging history. Matsuyama opened the 2018 PGA Championship with rounds of 68-69 before a poor Saturday set him back, only to bounce back with a 66 on Sunday. His success at difficult parkland layouts like Augusta and Muirfield Village, along with positive history at Olympia Fields and Detroit, gives me confidence that this is another setup where his current form can translate. The concerns are putting and the recent BMW Championship results, but he has been much more competitive lately on the greens and his back-to-back top-3 finishes at this event in 2019 and 2020 are enough to keep me interested. At +2500, Matsuyama is one of my favorite outright values in the field and a player I’m willing to take against Scottie.