Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:00AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Nicklaus Results: Results on Jack Nicklaus Design PGA Tour Tournaments
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Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (128), ARD (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, APP 150175, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/9/30/26
Nicklaus Results: 2/13/21/28/31/33/34/61/MC
Insights: Bridgeman checks nearly every box statistically outside of longer approach and around-the-green play. He’s gained on approach in 10 straight starts, off the tee in 6 of his last 7, with the putter in 6 straight, and around the green in 4 of 5. He also closed the playoffs with back-to-back Top 10s and currently sits 29th in the OWGR and 23rd in DataGolf. The problem is simply the price. At +1800, he’s already being treated like one of the clear favorites, and I expect him to be extremely popular in DFS as well. His runner-up at the 2025 Cognizant is encouraging on a Nicklaus design, but it remains his only Top 10 across the comps listed here. Hat Tip territory for me — if he wins, he wins, and we move on without the investment. One wrinkle worth monitoring: Bridgeman ranks 73rd of 81 in early Round 1 scoring but 2nd in late Round 2 scoring among players with data this week. If he opens slowly Thursday, a live number Thursday night or Friday morning could be much more interesting than +1800 pre-tournament.
Jackson Koivun
Odds: +1400
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 24/29/31/1
Nicklaus Results: 52
Insights: There’s no denying the ceiling. Koivun has gained off the tee and on approach in four straight starts, sits 65th in the OWGR and 29th in DataGolf, and has already won seven times in 2026 — six at Auburn and once on TOUR at the 3M Open. The ball-striking has remained consistently positive since that breakthrough, even if the approach numbers haven’t quite reached the level we saw during the win. The concern at +1400 is that we’re paying a premium while the short game remains less predictable. He’s gained around the green and putting in only 4 of his last 7 starts, with just one putting gain over his last three. His lone Nicklaus-design result came at the 2024 Memorial, where he went 72-76-78-80, but that version of Koivun is hardly comparable to the player we see today. A 4th at Silverado during last year’s fall swing is probably more relevant to this setup. At +1400, I need almost everything to line up. The tee-to-green profile says he absolutely belongs near the top of the board, but with limited course-design history and a sporadic putter, I’m more interested in respecting him than forcing the price. Compared with Bridgeman, Koivun has the higher outright ceiling for me, but he’s also asking you to pay even more for projection.
Davis Thompson
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (112), PUTT (128), BOB 150175 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BS, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/8/7/MC
Nicklaus Results: 2/21/27/27/39/47/49/51/56/60/63/MC/MC
Insights: Thompson’s profile is one of the more interesting ones on the board. He ranks Top 25% this week in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, total driving, approach, GIR, proximity, ball-striking and par-3/par-4 scoring. He also gained 3+ true strokes on approach in his last start, an extremely rare threshold, and approach has been elite in two of his last three with OTT also above average or better in two of three. The concern is the short game. Since May, Thompson has gained putting in only 3 of 9 starts and around the green in just 2 of 9, which has kept strong ball-striking weeks from turning into real contention. His Nicklaus-design history is also fairly ordinary outside of the 2023 American Express runner-up, where only one round came on the Nicklaus Tournament Course. Still, +2800 is much more appealing than the prices at the very top. If Biltmore gives us some John Deere / Sedgefield-style characteristics, the fit gets stronger, and when I simplify the model to tee-to-green, Bent/Poa putting, short courses and approach proximity, Thompson ranks 1st. I’m not fully across the line yet, but this is the first name of the three that feels like a legitimate outright decision rather than a respect-and-move-on profile.
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