Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:00 AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Baycurrent Results: Finishes at the Baycurrent Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Conway Farms Golf Club, Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) & Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
FOLLOW THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON SOCIAL MEDIA!
Bettor Clubhouse - @BettorClubhouse
Champ - @Champs311
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (103), TD (104), OTT/TD AVG (104), GIR (106), BS (112), BOB 200+ (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 21/28/7/7
Baycurrent Results: 20/46/51/40/1/28/2
Comp Results: 1/2/7/40/46/47/51
Insights: Hideki always gets a little more interesting when we head to Japan and there is certainly enough here to make the case. He ranks 7th in the field Tee-to-Green with Top 25% ranks in APP and all three 150+ approach buckets, while gaining APP in 3 of his last 4 starts. Around-the-green remains elite and the history in Japan is hard to ignore with a win and runner-up at Narashino. The concern is some of the stats missing are ones we identified as important this week. He ranks outside the Top 100 in OTT, Total Driving, GIR and Ball Striking, with 200+ BOB all the way down at 128th. The driver had shown some life with gains at both the FedEx and BMW before losing again at East Lake, while the putter has now lost in 4 of his last 5 with the Wyndham the lone positive. Last year at Yokohama he went 72-68-69-67 to finish T20, but never really threatened, sitting 5, 10 and 8 shots back through the first three rounds before climbing the board Sunday. I felt much better about where the game was heading before East Lake and maybe we can throw that one out, but +1600 puts him alongside Morikawa and Clark and I need more at that number. Plenty of respect for Hideki and I won't be looking to fade him, but right now this screams more Hat Tip than outright bet.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75! exclude APP 200+ (85), ARD (100), SCR (131), ARD/SCR AVG (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/4/52/18
Baycurrent Results: 14/54/1/45/7/50/22
Comp Results: 1/7/22/45/54/68
Insights: Collin may be my favorite of the names at the top of the board this week. He ranks 3rd in this field Tee-to-Green, 5th APP, 8th from 175-200, 4th BOB and 3rd P5, while sitting inside the Top 25% in nearly everything we are looking for at Yokohama. Another custom model (image below) has him 1st overall using course history, OTT, APP, Asia results, BOB and par scoring, while he also enters 2nd in the field in birdies per round and as the 2nd-best bentgrass putter. The game hasn't been perfect—he lost APP at East Lake for the first time in six starts, ARG has lost in four of six and the driver hasn't consistently been elite—but the results keep coming. Since winning Pebble Beach 12 starts ago, Morikawa has six Top 10s and four Top 5s, including a 3rd at Travelers where he just missed the playoff. He was only T35 entering Sunday here last year before a 63 vaulted him to T14, and we already know the upside in Japan after his six-shot win at Narashino in 2023, where he opened 64 and closed 63. That combination of current form, scoring ceiling and Japan history has my attention. If market lets this drift toward 20/1, I'll have a hard time staying away but even at 16/1 there is interest. My favorite at the top of the board right now and no surprise if he's the one holding the trophy Sunday.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1000
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (132), BOB 150175 (150), P3 (122)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/26/7/2
Baycurrent Results: 1/41/38/9/28/17/10
Comp Results: 4/5/9/10/12/12/20/28/38/41
Insights: X is the obvious benchmark this week, but +1000 makes him a difficult bet to get excited about. He ranks Top 5 in this field in Tee-to-Green, OTT, Total Driving, scoring and P5, has gained OTT and APP in four straight starts and remains the best bentgrass putter in the field. We already know the course fits after he went 71-63-67-64 to win here last year, and the layoff doesn't bother me much considering he arrived at Yokohama last year having not played since the BMW Championship and still got it done. The recent results are there too with seven Top 10s and three Top 5s since this win, including a runner-up and T7 in his last four starts. There is also plenty to like at our comps with multiple Top 5s at Innisbrook and two Top 10s at Narashino. The problem is what I want from a 10/1 favorite isn't quite as complete. He's Top 5 in plenty of categories that can get you into contention, but APP, BOB and P4 don't separate him from this field the same way, while ARG and putting have been inconsistent recently. He is a likely winner and absolutely could defend, but being first on the odds board requires a little more for me to actually bet it. Clear Hat Tip and someone I'll gladly look toward in DFS, but I'll search further down the board for my outright exposure. Great news for Xander and backors, my hat tips have crossed or nearly crossed the finish line in bunches this season.
WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU! MESSAGE THE BETTOR CLUBHOUSE WITH FEEDBACK, QUESTIONS, OR IDEAS FOR FUTURE NEWSLETTERS!
Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Michael Brennan, Wyndham Clark, Doug Ghim,
Johnny Keefer, Adam Scott, Jordan Smith, and Kevin Yu!
Michael Brennan
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (161), SCR (146), ARD/SCR AVG (154), BA (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/10/42/1
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Michael Brennan continues to make a pretty compelling case with the driver, ranking 3rd in this field OTT, 14th Total Driving and 1st from 200+, while sitting inside the Top 25% in Ball Striking, BOB and P5. He returned from the layoff with a T13 in Utah after finishing Top 10 at the BMW in his previous start, and the driver hasn't missed a beat with gains in four straight and routinely reaching elite levels. The putter has been just as impressive with four straight gains, including spikes at the Rocket and his Wyndham win, while APP has gained in three of four. The concern continues to be around the greens, where he has gained just four times in 26 starts and enters on six straight losses. That matters a little more this week after the top three at Yokohama last year finished 6th, 1st and 11th in scrambling for the week. Brennan makes his debut here and the only real comp-course history we have is a missed cut at Innisbrook, so +3000 feels a little short for me to invest outright despite the win just three starts ago. Plenty of upside and a profile that can absolutely contend, but the short game and Bogey Avoidance concerns have me leaning more toward placements and matchups than asking him to win on debut.
Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (86), TD (83), OTT/TD AVG (85), GIR (103), BS (92)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP AVG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 21/1/5/MC
Baycurrent Results: 48/16/25/46
Comp Results: 5/16/25/37/46/60/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels may have one of the more interesting cases at the top of the board this week. He ranks 10th in this field Tee-to-Green and sits inside the Top 25% in APP, ARG, putting and BOB, while another field-rank model has him 3rd overall. He also enters 3rd in birdies per round and as the 3rd-best bentgrass putter, which gives him plenty of the scoring upside we are looking for at Yokohama. The profile isn't perfect with OTT, Total Driving, GIR and Ball Striking all sitting outside the Top 75, but the current version of Clark looks much different than the one that finished T48 here last year. He has gained OTT in six of his last eight, flashed elite APP at both the FedEx and BMW and the short game hasn't been costing him. When the putter has spiked, he has won three times in his last 10 starts, and even when it has been closer to field average he has continued to find the front page of leaderboards. There is some Japan history too, including a T16 in 2023 that looks better after opening slowly and closing 66-68-67, along with a T5 at Innisbrook. I expect plenty of people to gravitate toward the win equity at +1600 and I understand why, but with some of the driving and ball-striking stats we want this week sitting closer to the middle of the field, I'm leaning Hat Tip rather than joining them. I'll keep an eye on Wednesday's tee sheet though, because the right match-up price could get me involved.
Doug Ghim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (66), APP 175200 (57), PUTT (78), BOB 175200 (89)
Top 75% Rank:
Top 25% Rank:
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/17/19/15
Baycurrent Results: 27/66
Comp Results: 27/27/40/57/66/67/MC
Insights: Dougggiee continues to make it difficult for me because the numbers keep screaming bet while the price keeps screaming otherwise. He's #1 in my model again this week, ranking 1st in the field Tee-to-Green, 5th OTT, 11th Total Driving, 3rd GIR, 4th Ball Striking, 8th BOB and 3rd P4, while entering 6th in birdies per round and 2nd in both Bogey Avoidance and P4 scoring. He also arrives with four straight Top 20s after finishing runner-up in Utah, where he entered Sunday one back in the final pairing and finished 5th TG, 1st OTT and 13th putting. The frustrating part was how he got there—APP went from +3.12 during the week to -2.72 on the weekend, while Saturday's +3.32 putting flipped to -1.35 Sunday. That's still the question with Ghim. He's made 11 of his last 13 cuts with eight Top 20s and three Top 10s, but last week tied his career-best finish and was only the third Top 5 of his career. The putter has quietly gained in six of eight and ARG in four straight, so maybe we're watching another player slowly turn the corner, but +2800 asks me to bet on a breakthrough that hasn't happened since his college days. He followed his 2024 Shriners runner-up with a T27 in Japan, and I don't expect him to disappear this week either. At 40/1 I'd probably be talking myself into it; under 30/1, I'll let someone else pay for the win equity.
Johnny Keefer
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (151), SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (145), PUTT (125), BA (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/7/MC/60
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Johnny Keefer makes his Yokohama debut with a profile that fits this place better than his #20 overall model rank suggests. He ranks 12th OTT, 19th Total Driving, 4th GIR and 5th Ball Striking, while sitting inside the Top 25% in TG, APP and 200+, giving us plenty of what we identified as important this week. He also comes in with back-to-back Top 10s and nearly gained across the board in both Fall starts. Last week in Utah he finished 6th Tee-to-Green, 9th OTT, 18th APP and 16th ARG, while the putter was the only thing holding him back despite a Saturday spike of more than 3.5 strokes gained. The recent ball striking is encouraging, but I do want to see the driver continue after losing OTT in four of his previous five starts, while the season-long ARG and putting numbers remain a concern at a course where scrambling mattered last year. This is his Yokohama debut and a missed cut at this year's Valspar is our only comp result, so there isn't much course history to lean on either. Still, we're talking about last year's Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year with two wins who is already 62nd OWGR and starting to find his footing on TOUR. +4000 is enough of a drop from the names above him to get my attention. I'll be looking at Keefer in matchups, and I don't hate a small outright sprinkle, preferably paired with an each-way or placement bet.
Adam Scott
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (116), PUTT (101), BOB 200+ (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/11/16/12
Baycurrent Results: 27/41/33
Comp Results: 16/28/28/30/33/35/41/57/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Adam Scott might be the sneaky veteran who gets overlooked this week. The 46-year-old has five straight Top 20s, including two Top 10s and a runner-up at Wentworth, while gaining OTT and APP in each of his last four starts. The ball striking has been particularly impressive over this stretch, reaching above-average to elite levels during the FedExCup Playoffs before carrying over to Europe. That fits what we're looking for at Yokohama, with Scott sitting inside the Top 25% in TG, APP and every 150+ approach bucket, and another field-rank model has him 13th overall. Last year he opened 68 to sit T4 before falling off the pace, but a closing 67 got him back to T27 and at least gives us some positive experience around the course. There are reasons to hesitate at +2800. We usually get a better number on Scott, he doesn't own a Top 10 across our comp courses and the putter remains the obvious variable. Still, I have a sneaky feeling one of the older statesmen hangs around this week, and if Scott simply gets a cooperative putter, the current ball striking is good enough to make it him. This feels a little boom-or-bust, which I actually like in a no-cut event. I don't know if I can pull the trigger outright at 28/1, but I absolutely want some exposure and think he could be the missing piece in a lower-owned DFS lineup.
Jordan Smith
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (138), ARD/SCR AVG (113), PUTT (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/21/MC/55
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 3
Insights: Jordan Smith is one of the more interesting longshots on the board because the season-long ball-striking profile fits exactly what we've been looking for at Yokohama. He ranks 1st in this field in both Total Driving and Ball Striking, 7th GIR and 15th OTT, while sitting inside the Top 25% in TG as well. The concern is that some of those numbers haven't been nearly as sharp recently. OTT has cooled since the end of the FedExCup season and APP has drifted with it, while the season-long ARG and putting numbers both sit in the bottom quarter of this field. Last week showed the volatility perfectly. Smith opened with a 63 in Utah, helped by an albatross on 18, then followed it with an even-par Friday where he lost across the board. Saturday the ball striking remained off while the putter carried him, before finally gaining across the board Sunday. He makes his Yokohama debut, but his lone comp result certainly gets my attention—a 3rd at Innisbrook earlier this year, finishing just two shots back. That remains his last Top 10 some 18 starts later, which makes +6000 more intriguing than actionable for me outright. I like the course fit and think a Top 20 is firmly in play, but I'd rather use Smith for shorter-term exposure in matchups while mixing him into a couple DFS lineups.
Kevin Yu
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (125), SCR (115)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 32/24/4/31
Baycurrent Results: 20/16/59
Comp Results: 12/16/30/59/MC/MC
Insights: Kevin Yuuuuuuuu is starting to become one of those names we can't seem to get away from, and I'm not sure we should just yet. He ranks 1st in this field in birdies per round, 2nd BOB, 12th Ball Striking, 18th GIR and 23rd Total Driving, while gaining OTT in 13 of his last 14 starts and APP in nine of his last 10. The problem lately hasn't been finding low rounds, it's avoiding the one that takes him out of contention. He shot three rounds in the 60s last week in Utah, three of four in Asheville and all four at the Wyndham, including a 62 and multiple 64s during that stretch. We saw the same thing here last year when he opened 69-68 and was one shot outside the Top 10 before a Saturday 73 knocked him back, only to close with a 66 for T20. Clean up that one round and suddenly the ceiling gets pretty interesting. We cashed his U33.5 last week while the outright at 30/1 never really got there, but now we're getting +4500 despite the stronger field. He has gained OTT and APP in four straight, has seven made cuts in his last eight with three Top 20s, and already owns a Fall win from Sanderson in 2024. I'm willing to go back to the well at the bigger number with a small outright sprinkle, then look for another placement or matchup. And after Sunday's 64 in Utah, I'll be watching the FRL board too—if we get something around 50/1, Yu may find his way onto that card as well.