2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
API Results: Finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Old White, PGA West (Palmer) & TPC Boston
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude ARD (84), SCR (94), ARD/SCR AVG (89), PUTT (141), P3 (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, P3; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 24/14/9/63
API Results: 22/MC/14/9/10/9/2/MC/13/27/MC
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Matty Fitz has been in solid form since the Amex, posting 3 straight top-25 results at the WMPO, Pebble Beach and Genesis. Stretching back further, Fitz has 15 Top 25s, 10 Top 10s and 5 Top 5s in his last 25 starts. That being said, his short game has been an issue lately, particularly on the greens. He lost over 4 strokes putting at Riv, on the heels of very slight losses at Pebble, over 1.5 strokes lost at WMPO and about 1 stroke lost at Amex. Fortunately for him, Bermuda grass is his best putting surface over the course of his career, and especially over the last year. In fact, he’s gained strokes on the greens in each of his 11 starts at Bay Hill. From 2019 through 2023, he had 5 straight top-15 finishes on this course, as high as 2nd in 2019. However, over the last 2 years, he missed the small cut in 2024 and finished T22 last year, which was probably fortunate because he lost over 6 strokes tee-to-green and made up for it with 8 gained strokes putting. Personally, I’d like to see more positive putting performances before betting on Fitz at this number in this kind of field, but I wouldn’t blame you for investing in him this week. His overall game is well-suited for this course. - S
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude OTT (36), APP 200+ (85), PUTT (77), P3 (38)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 200+, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/14/33/3
API Results: 15/21/2/13/10/5/6/1/4/27/11
Comp Results: 1/1/5/12/29/37/47/65/MC
Insights: Rory’s form has been excellent since the Ryder Cup, as he posted 3 top-3 finishes in the DPWT before starting his 2026 PGA season with a T14 at Pebble and a T2 at Genesis in which he gained in every major Strokes Gained category. This week, he returns to a course at which he’s had great success, though a win has evaded him here since 2018 — when he gained over 10 strokes on the greens and almost 8 strokes tee-to-green in a dominant performance that was capped off with a 64 on Sunday to beat Bryson and J-Rose. I’m definitely swimming around the idea of betting Rory, but a couple of things concern me given the sub-10/1 price on the odds board. First, he lost over 4 strokes on Approach here in 2024 and over 6 strokes last year. Second, he has just 1 round in the 60s in his last 8 rounds here. Third, over his last 24 rounds, Rory is 66th in the field in Driving Accuracy and 63rd in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway. Would love something like 12/1 or 15/1, but alas, that’s not the world we currently live in. Rory should be in your DFS and OAD conversations, especially if you’re taking a wait-and-see approach on Scottie. -S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (123), PROX (114)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/4/3/1
API Results: 11/1/4/1/15
Comp Results: 4/7
Insights: Has Scottie lost his magic touch? Will he ever win again? Oh, the drama! This guy finishes outside the Top 10 basically once in the last year and the rumor mills start to swirl. Sure, he hasn’t won in a month and a half and his Approach numbers have been head-scratching of late — especially in the first rounds of his starts — but this is still Scottie Scheffler. It’s like Steph Curry going through a shooting slump; he still has the talent and the upside, but he’s also human despite what some of us may think. Scheffler has had tremendous success at this course —specifically OTT and ARG — winning twice (2022, 2024) in addition to a T5 and 2 T15s. Some say Rory is the Course Horse here, but I’d argue it’s Scottie. In 5 starts since 2020, his average finishing position is 6.4. No one else is under 10, even Rory. Honestly, Scottie’s 3 non-wins here were all excellent tee-to-green performances, it’s the putter that plagued him in those outings — which has been a non-factor this year. In fact, Scottie is absolutely excellent on the greens these days, as he’s dropped putting strokes to the field in just 2 PGA events/Majors since losing 5 strokes to the field in that department last year at Bay Hill. The time to buy Scottie is when everyone is jumping off. Now feels like that time, but the oddsmakers aren’t giving you any discounts. A creative way to bet a Scottie outright would be for him to win by multiple strokes, but the prices on that market are awful, too (+850 for a 4+ stroke win? cmon man, at least give us 10/1). Fire up in DFS, though I’d hold off in OAD. As far as betting, probably worth waiting to see how he plays in Round 1 before investing in an outright. If his poor R1 trend continues, you’ll get a much better price live. -S
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