Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Season Stats Rank in this Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
API Results: Finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Old White, PGA West (Palmer) & TPC Boston
Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude ARD (84), SCR (94), ARD/SCR AVG (89), PUTT (141), P3 (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, P3; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 24/14/9/63
API Results: 22/MC/14/9/10/9/2/MC/13/27/MC
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Matty Fitz has been in solid form since the Amex, posting 3 straight top-25 results at the WMPO, Pebble Beach and Genesis. Stretching back further, Fitz has 15 Top 25s, 10 Top 10s and 5 Top 5s in his last 25 starts. That being said, his short game has been an issue lately, particularly on the greens. He lost over 4 strokes putting at Riv, on the heels of very slight losses at Pebble, over 1.5 strokes lost at WMPO and about 1 stroke lost at Amex. Fortunately for him, Bermuda grass is his best putting surface over the course of his career, and especially over the last year. In fact, he’s gained strokes on the greens in each of his 11 starts at Bay Hill. From 2019 through 2023, he had 5 straight top-15 finishes on this course, as high as 2nd in 2019. However, over the last 2 years, he missed the small cut in 2024 and finished T22 last year, which was probably fortunate because he lost over 6 strokes tee-to-green and made up for it with 8 gained strokes putting. Personally, I’d like to see more positive putting performances before betting on Fitz at this number in this kind of field, but I wouldn’t blame you for investing in him this week. His overall game is well-suited for this course. - S
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude OTT (36), APP 200+ (85), PUTT (77), P3 (38)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, APP 200+, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/14/33/3
API Results: 15/21/2/13/10/5/6/1/4/27/11
Comp Results: 1/1/5/12/29/37/47/65/MC
Insights: Rory’s form has been excellent since the Ryder Cup, as he posted 3 top-3 finishes in the DPWT before starting his 2026 PGA season with a T14 at Pebble and a T2 at Genesis in which he gained in every major Strokes Gained category. This week, he returns to a course at which he’s had great success, though a win has evaded him here since 2018 — when he gained over 10 strokes on the greens and almost 8 strokes tee-to-green in a dominant performance that was capped off with a 64 on Sunday to beat Bryson and J-Rose. I’m definitely swimming around the idea of betting Rory, but a couple of things concern me given the sub-10/1 price on the odds board. First, he lost over 4 strokes on Approach here in 2024 and over 6 strokes last year. Second, he has just 1 round in the 60s in his last 8 rounds here. Third, over his last 24 rounds, Rory is 66th in the field in Driving Accuracy and 63rd in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway. Would love something like 12/1 or 15/1, but alas, that’s not the world we currently live in. Rory should be in your DFS and OAD conversations, especially if you’re taking a wait-and-see approach on Scottie. -S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (123), PROX (114)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/4/3/1
API Results: 11/1/4/1/15
Comp Results: 4/7
Insights: Has Scottie lost his magic touch? Will he ever win again? Oh, the drama! This guy finishes outside the Top 10 basically once in the last year and the rumor mills start to swirl. Sure, he hasn’t won in a month and a half and his Approach numbers have been head-scratching of late — especially in the first rounds of his starts — but this is still Scottie Scheffler. It’s like Steph Curry going through a shooting slump; he still has the talent and the upside, but he’s also human despite what some of us may think. Scheffler has had tremendous success at this course —specifically OTT and ARG — winning twice (2022, 2024) in addition to a T5 and 2 T15s. Some say Rory is the Course Horse here, but I’d argue it’s Scottie. In 5 starts since 2020, his average finishing position is 6.4. No one else is under 10, even Rory. Honestly, Scottie’s 3 non-wins here were all excellent tee-to-green performances, it’s the putter that plagued him in those outings — which has been a non-factor this year. In fact, Scottie is absolutely excellent on the greens these days, as he’s dropped putting strokes to the field in just 2 PGA events/Majors since losing 5 strokes to the field in that department last year at Bay Hill. The time to buy Scottie is when everyone is jumping off. Now feels like that time, but the oddsmakers aren’t giving you any discounts. A creative way to bet a Scottie outright would be for him to win by multiple strokes, but the prices on that market are awful, too (+850 for a 4+ stroke win? cmon man, at least give us 10/1). Fire up in DFS, though I’d hold off in OAD. As far as betting, probably worth waiting to see how he plays in Round 1 before investing in an outright. If his poor R1 trend continues, you’ll get a much better price live. -S
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More Player Deep Dives below for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Nicolai Hojgaard, Shane Lowry, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young!
Nicolai Hojgaard
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (88), BOB 175200 (86)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 6/3/22/4
API Results: MC/MC
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Nicolai has been on our radar all year, and he’s only improved his standing with his last 2 starts — a T3 at the WMPO and a T6 at the Cognizant. He gained stokes to the field in every major SG category in both of those events, and if it weren’t for a slightly below average ARG performance at Farmers, it would be a 3-start stretch gaining strokes across the board. Awesome stuff from the Dane, who also gained across the board in 2 his 4 DPWT events after the Baycurrent. Despite being a very strong field, N-Hoj is top-10 in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Par 3s, and Approach from 200+ over his last 24 rounds, which is remarkable given who is playing in this event. The price is great considering the form and the top-flight Approach metrics, especially from long-range. The question is, do you ignore his course history, which consists of missed cuts in his only 2 starts in 2022 and 2024? What if I told you he’s only made the cut in 2 of his 8 Florida PGA events — both being at the Cognizant? I’ll default to a DFS-only play on Hoj this week given the course history and Florida history overall, though the FOMO will be real. Check Wednesday’s newsletter for final betting card to confirm, but as of right now I will reluctantly put Nicolai in the hat-tip department this week. -S
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude ARD (59), PUTT (151), BOB 200+ (63), P5 (70)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 34/45/3/2
API Results: 19/30/39/26/WD/MC/MC/MC/49/63
Comp Results: 15/35/39/40/MC/MC
Insights: Another player the Bettor Clubhouse has actively been tacking and investing in all year, Si Woo Kim’s deep dive is relatively straightforward. Are you able to stomach what feels like the most missed birdie putts inside 10 feet on Tour? If you are, SWK is your guy. Sitting 1st in this field in Approach, 1st in Tee-to-Green, 1st in Approach from 200+ yards, 2nd in Proximity from the Fairway, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, and top-10 in almost every other key metric outside of Putting over his last 24 rounds, SWK definitely has the form and game to compete on this course — at least on paper. The reality is that he’s never been able to put it all together here. He’s played here 10 times, every year since 2016, and he’s never finished better than T19. -S
Jake Knapp
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (81), APP 175200 (82), P3 (81)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, SCR, SCR/ARD AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 6/8/8/5
API Results: 57 (77-70-81-72, 2024)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Knapp has been playing great golf since the start of the 2026 PGA season, finishing T11 or better in all 5 events from the Sony to the Genesis. He’s been great on the greens and very good in the ball-striking department over that stretch, but he hasn’t had the eye for Bermuda surfaces over the course of his career and is 62nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Florida over his last 24 rounds in the state. In his only start here, he finished T57 in 2024, losing over 11 strokes off-the-tee (woah) and over 2 strokes around and on the greens. It’s a no from me at the price given his inconsistencies in Florida, but I wouldn’t mind a Top 10 placement bet to try to capture some of his upside. -S
Shane Lowry
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (97), OTT/TD AVG (76), ARD (105), BOB 175200 (97), BOB 200+ (87)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 175200; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/24/8/26
API Results: 7/3/67/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Too soon, too soon. As far as I’m concerned, Lowry is cursed forever. How do you piss away a 3-stroke lead on the last 3 holes of your home course when you’re in such good form leading in? You know what? Shame on me for trusting him after he did this to us in 2022 when he blew his lead at the same course to Sepp. I’m not betting him here. In fact, I may never bet him again. I don’t care if he’s finished 7th and 3rd in his last 2 starts here, if he can’t beat Echevarria AT HIS HOME COURSE WITH A 3-STROKE LEAD, how is he going to beat the game’s best golfers on a harder course? No thanks. Fade of the week. (Yes, I’m better. No, I’m not sorry for it.) -S
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (137), ARD (112), P3 (130)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, P3; Top 25: OTT, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/19/41/MC
API Results: 40/25/39/24
Comp Results: 1/21/25/49/53
Insights: Slowly but surely, Xander is starting to return back to form. Look no further than his T7 at Genesis, in which he gained in every major Strokes Gained category. We all know Xander has the upside, and he started to piece it all together late last season after injury plagued him early. The price is fair, as he would probably be around 12-15 if he was in top form, but Bay Hill hasn’t fit his eye throughout his career. He’s played here 3 years in a row and finished no better than T25. Last year, he lost 5 strokes ARG despite a solid ball-striking performance. If he had a couple top-10 finished sprinkled into his course history, I’d probably be all over this number, but I’m going to pass and hopefully can still be early on a Xander win at a different course where he’s performed better historically — maybe like Innisbrook in a couple weeks? -S
Adam Scott
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (127), PUTT (82)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 4/30/24/40
API Results: 36/MC/31/26/MC/41/12/35/3/MC/MC/30/3/25/68
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/7/8/16/17/49/50/53/58/73/MC
Insights: Solid form for the Aussie, finishing T40 or better in 9 straight starts including PGA and DWPT — 3 of them T10 or better. The ball striking has been excellent, but the short game hasn’t, and it’s hard to see that changing this week considering Bermuda is his worst putting surface throughout his career and 2nd-worst only behind Bent over the last 12 months. For what it’s worth, his Round 4 average strokes gained over the last 12 months is negative as well. This price seems somewhat ridiculous for a 45 year old that hasn’t won since 2020 and has finished no better than T12 here in 7 starts over the last 10 years. Another fade of the week candidate in my opinion, especially considering he’s lost at least 1.5 strokes on APP in 5 of his last 6 appearances here. -S
Cameron Young
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (86), PUTT (89)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/55/41/22
API Results: MC/36/10/13
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Cam is an interesting handicap this week. Sitting 2nd in my early-week model, the number suggest his game fits this course well. The reality? Ehh, you tell me. He missed the cut here last year after finishing T36 in 2024, but he has a T10 in 2023 and a T13 in 2022. His performance here last year was really bad, as he lost almost 7 strokes T2G, though he was a slight positive on the greens. That’s no anomaly, as Young is great on Bermuda greens historically and is his best surface over the last year. Looking at his current form over his last 24 rounds, his field rank of 56th in Driving Accuracy is a concern, but considering he’s 13th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway, he isn’t missing fairways by much. Assuming he is able to find fairways consistently, he should be able to find some scoring opportunities being that he’s 8th in Fairway Proximity and 3rd in Bermuda Putting outside 10 feet. Long irons are solid but not elite, though his short game on Bermuda is close to, if not elite. This is a healthy price for Young all things considered. Definitely on my betting card radar. Fire in DFS. Would hold for a different course in OAD. -S
Don’t forget to check out our Puerto Rico Open deep dives for this week’s alternate event!