2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models

Deep analysis for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, including early models, course preview and key stats for your betting and DFS research

The Bettor Clubhouse

Mar 02, 2026

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Field List

Patio Preview

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, Florida

Signature Event
- 72 players
- Small cut: T50 + ties make the weekend
Par 72
7,400-7,500 yards
- Plays longer on some holes than listed yardage due to various hazards
- Plays difficult
Greens: Bermuda
- 7,500 sq ft
- FAST - 13.5 or 14 on Stimpmeter
- 3-Putt Avoidance% tends to range year to year
  - Would assume that has to do with green conditions and wind; were greens dry and fast or wet and slower in those years? Higher 3PA = dry and fast, but I have not dug to confirm those conditions
Architect: Dick Wilson
- Renovations: Arnold Palmer
- Water hazards in play on half the course
Top 5 on Tour in OTT difficulty and APP difficulty
- Good Drive % no better than 77% last 5 years here
  - PGA Tour average 81.5%
- Driving Accuracy no better than 59% last 5 years
  - PGA Tour average 60.5%
All 4 of the easiest holes are Par 5’s
- 30%+ birdie rate on each
- Need to score on these holes to have a chance to win
Par 3s all around 200+ yards
Bogey rate on first 2 holes around 24-25% each
- 20%+ bogey rate on each
Unlike PGA National, the rough is penal at Bay Hill
- Top 10-15 on Tour in rough penalty
- Playing out of the fairway is going to be an advantage
  - Narrow fairways, plenty of bunkers
  - GIR% from fairway was 74%+ last 2 years, which is closer to PGA Tour average (77%), but GIR% from rough was worse than 43% in those 2 years and almost 9% below Tour average
- 3”+ in length and thick
Shots Gained: Approach is King, as usual
- Long iron play will be required for success
  - Heavy percentage of approach shots from 150 and even 200+ yards
- Overall Greens-in-Regulation % no better than 59% over last 5 years
  - PGA Tour average 66%
Ample sand surrounding greens make for a difficult Around-the-Green set up in tandem with thick rough, but scrambling and ARG proximity numbers are right around Tour average
- Include in models but don’t overinflated
Birdie-or-better% right around 19.5% last 2 years
- PGA Tour average just over 21%
- BOB% from rough no better than 12% last 5 years
  - PGA Tour average around 15.5%
Bogey Avoidance % ranges from 19 to 24% last 5 years
- All over PGA Tour average of 16.3%
Birdie-to-Bogey ration just 0.90 vs 1.44 Tour average
Check weather throughout the week
- Wind will wreak havoc here with an abundance of water

Recent Tournament History

2025: Russell Henley -11 (72-68-67-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Collin Morikawa
2024: Scottie Scheffler -15 (70-67-70-66); 5 Stroke Victory over Wyndham Clark
2023: Kurt Kitayama -9 (67-68-72-72); 1 Stroke Victory over McIlroy & English
2022: Scottie Scheffler -5 (70-73-68-72); 1 Stroke over Hatton, Horschel & Hovland
2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11 (67-71-68-71); 1 Stroke Victory over Lee Westwood
2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4 (68-69-73-74); 1 Stroke Victory over Marc Leishman

FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Driving Accuracy

Tier 2

Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %
Strokes Gained: Par 3
Fairway Proximity
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Scrambling (Bermuda)
Around-the-Green Proximity (Bermuda)
3-Putt Avoidance (Bermuda)

Tier 3

Rough Proximity
Approach 150+ yards
Putting Outside 10 feet (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Total (Difficult-Very Difficult)

Champ’s Course Comps

TPC Old White
PGA West (Palmer)
TPC Boston

Last 6 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25: 2024, 2022, 2021
26-50: 2025
51-100: 2020
101+: 2023

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/6 (67%) trailed by 3 or more (0/6 led)
R2: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots (3/6 led)
R3: 6/6 (100%) within 2 shots (3/6 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with a Top 25 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
5/6 (83%) made the cut in their last start
5/6 (83%) with a Top 25 finish in their last start
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 25 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with at least 2 Top 10 finishes in their last 4 starts
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
1/6 (17%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Arnold Palmer Invitational History
5/6 (83%) with at least 1 prior appearances
5/6 (83%) with a Top 15 finish in a prior appearance
4/6 (67%) with a Top 5 finish in a prior appearance
3/6 (50%) with a Top 5 finish in the last appearance prior to their win
1/6 (17%) with a WIN in a prior appearance

First Round Leader by Group Number
1-18: 33% (2022, 2021)
19-36: 83% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020)
*results can include instances where FRL from both groups, both get credited with a win.