2026 3M Open - Player Deep Dives
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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
3M Results: Finishes at the 3M Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort (Cooperhead Course), TPC River Highlands and Muirfield Village Golf Club
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +2300
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (96), ARD/SCR AVG (84), PUTT (102), BOB 200+ (100), P5 (142)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude P5
Top 25% Rank: All exclude PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB , BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 40/44/25/53
3M Results: 1/6 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 60)
Comp Results: 22/25/31/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Kurt Kitayama returns to TPC Twin Cities with arguably the best course history in the field. Last year’s victory was fueled by a Saturday 60 and a clutch bunker save on the 72nd hole to secure the title, while he also finished sixth here in 2022. Across those two appearances, he’s gained consistently off the tee and on approach, proving this layout perfectly complements his aggressive style. Even with an underwhelming run of results since the PGA Championship, the underlying ball striking has remained solid, gaining off the tee in each of his last four starts and on approach in three of them. The biggest hurdle this week is the price. After cashing a 30/1 ticket on Kitayama last year, asking bettors to jump in again at +2300 is a much tougher sell. “Defending champion” route I don’t expect to be over popular this week, but I’m a bit more cautious despite loving the course fit. His putting has cooled and the recent finishes don’t quite justify the number, making this a respectful hat tip. That said if the irons heat up the way they have here before, don’t be surprised to see Kitayama back on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday and early Thursday. -C
Maverick McNealy
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (113), APP 175200 (143), PROX (118), APP AVG (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/55/32/10
3M Results: MC/3/49/16 (6 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 5/10/17/30/36/45/55/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Mav enters the 3M Open in some pretty shaky ball-striking form, having lost over 5 strokes on Approach in his last 2 starts combined. In fact, irons have been an issue for him for essentially the entire season at this point, losing strokes on Approach in nine of his last 13 events. As such, the ceiling really hasn’t been there for him in 2026. His best finishes are 10th at Memorial and Farmers, and his course history is a mixed bag. Having said that, if he somehow found his irons after his international journey back from a missed cut at the Open, his short game is plenty good enough to do the heavy lifting. Proximity will be key for Mav this week, but we haven’t seen much of his top form this year, so at this price, I have to be out. -S
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +275
Stats: Top 25!!! exclude APP 175200 (80), APP 200+ (38), PROX (103), APP AVG (47), BOB 175200 (101), BOB AVG (36)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/MC/2/4
3M Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/1/1/2/3/3/4/6/12/13/22/29/47/MC/MC
Insights: After spiking to 8/1 at the Open, Scottie returns to the range in which we have grown accustomed to seeing him, going off currently at shorter than 3/1 despite not having played this event — not that that matters for the World #1. I’m not entirely sure why he’s playing this event, but I fully expect him to finally get over the little hurdle he’s found and earn his first victory since the AmEx in January. It’s not like his form has been bad, as he’s finished T4 or better nine other times this season. Fatigue is a slight concern, but the skill gap in this tournament is fairly wide, and that’s depicted by the delta in the betting odds from Scottie to the second-favorite at longer than 25/1. Honestly, I wouldn’t argue with you if you made this a “without Scottie” market week. If you somehow have him left in OAD, wait for the playoff events to use him, but don’t be afraid to fire him up on your betting card and DFS lineups. -S
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Corey Conners
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, PUTT, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, BS
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/52/7/23
3M Results: 46 (70-64-70-70, 2019)
Comp Results: 7/8/9/13/14/16/20/21/22/25/27/39/53/65/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Corey Conners heads to the 3M Open with his ball striking trending at exactly the right time. He followed a seventh-place finish at the Travelers with 14th at The Open, gaining with his irons in both starts while producing one of his better approach weeks of the season at Royal Birkdale. TPC Twin Cities should suit his fairways-and-greens style, and although he’s only made one prior appearance here, he ranked first in Ball Striking and fifth Tee-to-Green in 2019 despite finishing just 46th after a cold week on the greens. The putter will always dictate Conners’ ceiling, but this tournament has rewarded elite ball strikers who simply find a serviceable week on the greens. That’s exactly the blueprint I’m betting on. His game feels very similar to what we saw at the Travelers, where consistent tee-to-green play kept him in contention throughout the week. Add in extra motivation with Presidents Cup qualification on the line, and I like his chances to contend. At +4500, Conners is one of my favorite placement bets this week along with a sprinkle on the Outright. -C
Lucas Glover
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 5/3/66/MC
3M Results: MC/MC/MC/7 (4 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 4/8/8/9/11/11/13/18/19/20/20/24/25/31/33/35/36/37/38/38/44/45/45/46/46/47/48
Insights: The Glove has been playing some good golf of late, finishing T3 at the Deere before a 5th at the ISCO. Sammy was on him at the Deere and was able to cash an each-way on him, while Champ was on him at ISCO — where he was in it until the very end. We’ve seen plenty of Glover in the last couple weeks to know it was the putting that ultimately let him down in both events, especially on the weekends. For reference, he lost just short of 5.5 strokes on the greens Saturday and Sunday at ISCO after losing more than two strokes on those days at the Deere. This price is appealing yet again in a weak field — though not as weak as the previous two in which he played — but I would only bet outrights if you’re including each-ways. Otherwise, if you’re interested in betting Glover this week, encompass his potential upside with a placement ladder from T30 to T10 or T5, depending on your risk tolerance. I wouldn’t blame you if you were pessimistic about his chances this week like I am, though. -S
Max Homa
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude TG (107), APP (120), GIR (104), PROX (140), P3 (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 28/39/2/20
3M Results: 39/3/MDF (9 of 11 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/6/6/22/37/51/54/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: A couple months ago, you would have looked at Homa’s statistical profile and seen a lot of red and negative numbers, but he’s found some form of late — posting four top-30 results in his last five events with plenty of green in his profile. That includes his solo 2nd at the Deere, where he gained significantly across every major Strokes Gained category. He was even solid at the Open despite a T28, as it was his -2.2 strokes lost around the greens that really held him back. At 50/1, there are worse bets you could make, especially considering he has a T3 finish here — even if it was back in 2020. Ideally, you could pair that with 5 or 8 places and still get somewhere in the 45/1 range, which I don’t mind if you’re not planning on betting Scottie solo. -S
Sungjae Im
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA
Top 25% Rank: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/MC/71/30
3M Results: MC/MC/2/15 (6 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 twice; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 3/4/4/8/10/16/21/29/29/30/32/41/57/58/61/63/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Open was the first event since mid-March that Sungjae Im gained strokes with his irons. Yes, he had lost strokes on Approach in 13 straight events prior, which is why he has missed more cuts than he has finished Top 10 in 2026. At 50/1, the price is very appealing, especially in this field, but I admit that’s due to name recognition alone. If I’m being honest with myself, I want to see more sustained ball-striking form before I invest in Sungjae for the first time this year, though I will say, a T14 finish with solid gains across the board last week is a good place to start. -S
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (125), TD (120), OTT/TD AVG (123), GIR (122) BS (131)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/14/65/43
3M Results: 30/WD/7 (5 of 9 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/8/13/13/14/16/22/23/30/38/43/45/62/MC/MC
Insights: Hideki Matsuyama quietly enters the 3M Open in solid form after back-to-back top-15 finishes at the Travelers and The Open. His game has been trending in the right direction with gains off the tee in consecutive starts, strong approach play in four of his last five events and one of his most consistent around-the-green stretches of the season. TPC Twin Cities has also treated him well, finishing seventh here on debut and producing a pair of opening 64s during his career, proving he can get off to fast starts on this layout. As always with Hideki, the putter will determine just how high he climbs. His ball-striking profile fits this course well, and if he can put together a third straight positive driving week while keeping the irons warm, he’ll have every chance to contend. The outright price isn’t a steal, but when Hideki is in form, few players are better equipped to stare down the strongest fields on Sunday. I’m comfortable backing him this week, with First Round Leader, Each-Way and the Outright all firmly in play. -C
Keith Mitchell
Odds: +3200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (112), ARD (97), SCR (79), ARD/SCR AVG (88), PUTT (99)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 200+, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/51/22/4
3M Results: MC/46/5/5/MC/66 (14 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 3 times)
Comp Results: 6/11/17/18/22/22/48/48/54/56/69/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Keith Mitchell returns to TPC Twin Cities looking for what may be one of his best remaining chances to finally break through in 2026. The underlying metrics continue to impress, gaining off the tee in all four recent starts while the approach game has remained consistently strong. His Open Championship ended with a missed cut, but after skipping the Scottish Open he should arrive refreshed at a course where he’s twice finished fifth and proven he can contend against quality fields. If there’s one thing Mitchell has shown over the years, it’s that this layout fits his eye. The profile is very “Keith Mitchell”—elite tee-to-green, enough birdie chances to win, and the putter ultimately deciding his fate. His approach play has improved over his last two visits, while the driver has been surprisingly quieter than expected at TPC Twin Cities. If the flat stick cooperates for four rounds, this is absolutely a tournament he can win. I’m circling both First Round Leader and the Outright this week, and if Mitchell is going to add another PGA Tour victory, this feels like one of his best opportunities to do it. -C
Gary Woodland
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P3, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P3, P5
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/71/7/36
3M Results: 20/37/MC/11 (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 3 times)
Comp Results: 1/4/5/6/8/14/16/20/21/22/23/24/29/33/36/36/38/42/45/47/49/52/57/58/63/71
Insights: Gary Woodland returns to one of his better venues looking to rebound after a disappointing finish to the links swing. His missed cut at The Open and 71st at the Scottish Open were his two worst results since a top-10 at the U.S. Open, but a return to the States and a course that clearly suits his eye could be exactly what he needs. Woodland has teed it up here four straight years, posting finishes of 11th, 20th and 37th, with 10 of his 14 career rounds in the 60s and multiple weekends spent inside the top 10. The biggest hurdle remains converting good ball striking into four complete rounds. He’s lost strokes putting here in three of four appearances, while the driver has generally been solid rather than dominant. The encouraging sign is his approach play has improved over his last two trips to TPC Twin Cities, and if he can recapture anything close to the form he showed at the U.S. Open, another top-10 is well within reach. At +5500, I’d lean each-way, Top 20s, Matchups and 3-Balls over an outright, but don’t be surprised if Woodland bounces back and spends another weekend hanging around the first page of the leaderboard. -C