2025 Week 8 CFB - Stat Worksheet, Projected Spreads, Early Picks

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Week 8 is here, as we are now past the halfway point of the college football season. Wild, isn’t it? March Madness will be here before you know it!

Anyway, here’s my top 25 power ratings (not rankings) heading into the loaded Week 8 card, headlined by 5 ranked matchups

Ohio State clearly in a tier of its own. A repeat is starting to become a more and more realistic vision. Indiana jumps to 2nd nationally (yes you heard that right) after it’s outright win in Eugene over the Ducks — who are still going to be favored against pretty much every opponent they line up against on a neutral (which is the point of power ratings). Note Penn State currently 18th, but those power ratings don’t fully account for the injury to Drew Allar, the firing of James Franklin and the overall lame-duck feel of this team. In other words, although my numbers indicate PSU should be a slight favorite over Vanderbilt on a neutral, no way I’m actually valuing them that way in the betting market once situational aspects are applied.

Here is the Week 8 matchup card, complete with power ratings and team rankings in each of the stats I consider “key” week-to-week.

Glossary:

Pwr: Power Rating
HF: Value used for Home Field
TO Mgn: Turnover Margin (FBS vs FBS)
Pen: Penalties per game (FBS v FBS)
Sec PP: Seconds per play (FBS vs FBS)
3D Conv: 3rd Down Conversion % (FBS vs FBS)
YPP: Yards per play (FBS vs FBS)
O PPA: Offensive Predicted Points Added from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
D PPA: Defensive Predicted Points Added from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
PPOpp: Points per scoring opportunity from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
Std Down PPA: PPA on Standard Downs from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
Pass Down PPA: PPA on Passing Downs from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
Rush PPA: PPA per rush from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
Pass PPA: PPA per pass from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)
Havoc: Total Havoc Generated from Week 3 til now (excludes garbage time)

We’ve gotten to the point of the season where I start trimming the fat and evaluating more of a recent sample size than just the full season. I believe it gives you a more accurate representation of how a team is playing going into their current matchup, while weeding out some of the buy-games and other cupcakes. From here on out, I will evaluate the most recent 5 weeks for all of the advanced metrics.

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