2025 Week 5 CFB Worksheet

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Howdy TBCH patrons!

It’s been a while. I’ve been deep in the cellar working on my CFB Worksheet since the end of the golf season.

Now that we have 4 data points in this young season, I felt the sheet was strong enough to share with our followers.

While I’m not going to share the full sheet every week, I am happy to share my “Matchup Card” — which will include key stat rankings, my power ratings, home field advantage value I use in my projections, and ultimately my projected spreads with recommended bets (these will be for paid subs only).

So without further adieu, here is my Week 5 college football card:

Glossary:

Pwr: Power Rating
HF: Value used for Home Field
TO Mgn: Turnover Margin (FBS vs FBS)
Pen: Penalties per game (FBS v FBS)
Plays pg: Plays per game (FBS vs FBS)
Sec PP: Seconds per play (FBS vs FBS)
YPP: Yards per play (FBS vs FBS)
O PPA: Offensive Predicted Points Added (excludes garbage time)
D PPA: Defensive Predicted Points Added (excludes garbage time)
PPOpp: Points per scoring opportunity (excludes garbage time)
Std Down PPA: PPA on Standard Downs (excludes garbage time)
Pass Down PPA: PPA on Passing Downs (excludes garbage time)
Rush PPA: PPA per rush (excludes garbage time)
Pass PPA: PPA per pass (excludes garbage time)
Havoc: Total Havoc Generated (excludes garbage time)

A projected spread with a - in front of it simply means the road team is favored.

The Monday line column (“Mon”) on the far right between “Open” and “Proj” are lines I pulled from bet365 as of earlier today. The Friday lines will be from bet365 as well, as I track my projections against early-week numbers in addition to late-week numbers once limits have been raised and the market has been influenced by sharp money.

I use my projected spreads to find perceived value in the betting market, and then I handicap each matchup for the situational aspects at play that aren’t necessarily weighted in the projections. Keep in mind, “power ratings” = neutral site favorability. These are not rankings like the AP Poll (which is a BS ranking system, by the way).

If you would like to see how I utilize my projections to bet, and the records of said bets, you’ll have to become a paid subscriber to see the rest of this post.

Becoming a paid member will provide you with my CFB projections for the rest of the season, as well as our PGA player deep dives, PGA final models, and subscriber best bets for the PGA fall swing and 2026 regular season. Monthly and annual options are available.