Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Travelers Championship Results: Finishes at The Travelers Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sedgefield Country, East Lake Golf Club, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Harbour Town Golf Links, TPC Sawgrass
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50 exclude BOB 125150 (88)
Rank: Top 25% exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/1/4/1/1
Travelers Results: 1/4/13/47/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/2/5/6/8/11//20/22/55/MC
Insights: The reigning Travelers Champion, Scottie returns to Cromwell following a Top 10 finish at the US Open. Despite the T10, Scottie did not have his best stuff around Oakmont. He lost strokes OTT in each of the final 3 rounds of the tournament, and couldn’t hit crucial putts from 5-10 feet to put himself in the running. That said, he gained nearly 9 strokes T2G and was nearly 2.5 stokes better than the field on the greens. The +9 strokes T2G is his “worst” result since Harbour Town, where he gained about 5 strokes T2G. Not much to say here. Even with his B or C game, Scottie competed on the most difficult track we’ve seen in a few years, and should be well equipped for another Top 5 finish at TPC RH. He’s Top 10 in 13 of Sammy’s 16 model stats this week, Top 20 in 15 of 16. The biggest concern is price. If you want to bet him, you’re going to have to limit your exposure to other players. I can’t talk you off as he’s finished 8th or better in 8 straight events, and has back-to-back Top 4 finishes on this course — gaining nearly 10 strokes or more T2G on the field in each. Scottie is also [unsurprisingly] the best player in the field T2G on Pete Dye designs over the last 18 months. Fire up in One-and-Done contests if you still have him. At $13,300 on DK, you should be able to fit him into lineups with multiple viable options in the $6,000 range given that this is an elevated event with no cut, but he’s also pricey enough that he could finish Top 5 and not be in the optimal lineup — similar to how he was T7 at the US Open and not in the optimal.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175, PROX, BOB 150175, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175, PROX, BOB 150175, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 0/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/MC/47/7
Travelers Results: 7/11/12/17/19
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/1/2/4/6/7/8/8/9/10/12/14/16/19/33/33/35/41/58
Insights: Rory recovered from a putrid Canadian Open with a solid US Open. He didn’t look great early in the tournament, but he made the cut and eventually shot a 67 on Sunday to catapult up the leaderboard. Of note, he seemed to find something with his new TaylorMade driver, as he gained more than 6 strokes OTT. He was also extremely solid on the difficult Oakmont greens, gaining more than 2 strokes Putting. The issue continues to be his irons. For reference, he’s lost strokes on Approach in 4 straight events. That alone is enough to keep me off him this week, but I can’t deny, the price is certainly appealing for someone who has never finished outside the Top 17 on this course. That said, he didn’t play here last year, which was the first year this tournament became a Signature Event. Outside the Top 50 in this field in Driving Accuracy over the last 12 months on less-than-driver courses, in addition to being outside the Top 50 in Shots Gained: Approach over the last 16 rounds and outside the Top 65 in this field in key Approach buckets, Rory doesn’t exactly fit the mold of a player that I want to bet this week. If you still have him as an option in your One-and-Done contest, first I want to ask WHY? Second, you should probably save him for the Open at this point.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, PUTT, P3, P4
Rank: Top 75% exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/25/28/11
Travelers Results: 1/13/14/19/20/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/2/2/4/4/4/5/7/18/18/19/32/63/64/72/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Xander’s Top 12 finish at the US Open was a quiet one, but his game continues to trend in the right direction following his injury layoff earlier this season. He gained strokes to the field in all 4 major Shots Gained categories for the first time this season, which could signal a return to his elite 2024 form. However, he has yet to put himself firmly in contention this year, and for that reason, his price feels a bit light — especially given Scottie’s form and win equity at the top of the board. If you can find a 20/1 or better, I don’t mind adding Xander to your card, as he’s a previous winner at TPC River Highlands. However, that win is also the only time he finished Top 12 on this course in 6 starts. At the current odds of around 16/1 with a DK price just shy of $11,000, I much prefer to play X-man in DFS this week. If you still have him in One-and-Done, I would hold on to him as an option at the Open or the playoff events in August. If he had a couple more Top 10s this season, I may feel differently about betting him outright at these odds, but in my opinion, it doesn’t pay too handsomely to be early on Xander at this price. He’s a hat-tip type of guy this week, as he absolutely could win, but the odds just aren’t juicy enough at the moment to make me feel excited about it. From a betting perspective, I’d rather just invest in placements or First Round Leader until we see just a little bit more from him. If you’re looking for a tangible reason not to play X this week, he’s outside the top 50 in this field in Driving Accuracy on less-than-driver courses over the last 12 months, and his short-iron/wedge play hasn’t been that great of late (outside the top 60 in Approach from 50-150 yards last 24 rounds).
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Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +6600
Stats: Top 100 exclude OTT, ARD, SCR, BA
Rank: Top 25 APP, PUTT, GIR, BOB, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/16/22/MC
Travelers Results: 5
Comp Results: 3/18/26/42/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Akshay has had a weird season. He started the year in pretty solid form, but then fell off the face of the Earth from the API to the PGA Championship. While he missed the cut last week at the US Open he wasn't THAT bad. He was no worse than 1 stroke lost to the field in any category, meaning he was about average and likely would have made the cut if a couple more putts went down in Round 1. For someone with winning upside, as well as a Top 5 finish at TPC RH last year in what was a Signature Event, Bhatia’s price seems to be very fair. I’d actually argue it’s of value given his Top 5 upside. Would I like to see better form all around leading into this event? Certainly. However, he’s 8th in the field in Driving Accuracy on less-than-driver courses over the last year, 3rd in birdies-or-better on short courses, Top 25 from 100-175 yards, and he’s solid on Pete Dye designs. The biggest concern with his game currently is his abundance of bogeys, but again, at this price, I’m willing to turn a blind eye and play on his upside — preferably with each-way exposure.
Ryan Fox
Odds: +10000
Stats: Top 100 exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA
Rank: Top 75% across
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/1/20/28
Travelers Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 20/27/MC/MC
Insights: A winner twice over in his last 5 events, Ryan Fox comes into the Travelers Championship in great form — although he’s never played on this course in a PGA event. His iron-play has been red hot, gaining at least 2.5 strokes to the field on Approach in 4 straight events (win at Myrtle did not have shots gained metrics). Moreover, he’s been absolutely lights-out from 175 yards and in over his last 24 rounds. However, Driving Accuracy, specifically at less-than-driver courses, is my biggest concern with Fox this week, as well as his poor Bogey Avoidance rates this season on short courses. Do you really see Fox winning 3 times in 6 starts, with the 3rd win being in a Signature Event? I sure don’t. I think your money would be spent better on other players in his price range both in the betting market and DFS streets.
Russell Henley
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude OTT, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 10/5/MC/46
Travelers Results: 6/11/19/19/32/48/MC
Comp Results: 2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/9/12/12/13/14/17/19/19/23/24/26/30/31/35/46
Insights: When I think of guys who should perform well on short, positional courses, the Russ Bus is one of the first few that come to mind. He’s 2nd in Sammy’s model this week, in a tier of his own behind Scottie and ranking Top 25 in all 16 key stat/categories, but with that comes increased ownership — as he’s the #1 most-tipped golfer this week per GolfTipsChecker on X. Looking at his recent form, Henley has lost strokes OTT in 4 of his last 5 events, and has lost strokes on the greens in 5 of his last 7. Furthermore, Russ has played this course 7 times since 2016 and finished in the Top 10 just once (in 2018) — including a 48th last year in the tournament’s only year as a Signature Event. He’s lost strokes both around-the-green and on the greens in 4 of his last 5 appearances in Cromwell, so it’s a firm PASS for me given the circumstances. If I were to eat a chalky Henley, I would rather his all-around game be in much better form.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/25/28/54
Travelers Results: 11/20/29/54
Comp Results: 1/3/4/5/9/12/13/15/20/21/59/62
Insights: Vik found himself in contention at Oakmont last week, finishing in sole possession of 3rd-place despite not being entirely accurate OTT and losing more than 1.5 strokes on the greens. That said, his Approach game continues to be the strength of his profile, as he’s gained strokes with his irons in 11 consecutive events since Pebble Beach. However, long irons seem to be his forte, as he ranks 50th or worse in this field from 50-150 yards. Considering the winner likely needs to card a -20 or better this week, his short game and wedge play is enough to keep me off, not to mention the fact that he’s 4th on the most-tipped chart. As far as course history goes, he’s lost strokes both around-the-green and on the greens in 3 of 4 appearances at TPC River Highlands and has never finished inside the Top 10. Expecting some mental and physical fatigue from sloshing around Oakmont late on Sunday, mixed with his popularity despite not having full control of his putter and driver when it matters most, I would rather fade Vik this week than bet on him. In fact, Vik is shaping up as Sammy’s FOTW (Fade of the Week) this week. Consider yourself warned.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100 exclude PROX, PUTT, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT, BOB 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 42/31/28/8
Travelers Results: 11/25/26/31/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/3/5/6/8/9/10/14/18/20/23/27/33/33/38/42/56/63
Insights: SWK got off to a great start at Oakmont last week, gaining more than 6.5 strokes to the field in Round 1 before getting stuck in neutral the rest of the way and even descending down the board to finish tied for 42nd. He hasn’t been badly lately, per se, but he also hasn’t been a threat to win a tournament this year either. There seems to always be an area of his game that lets him down week in and week out, and last week it was his putting — where he lost more than 4 strokes to the field. At Memorial, it was his irons that gave him issues. At Colonial, his all-around ball-striking was the enemy, and at Quail, his Driver. Despite strong comp course results, SWK has missed the cut at TPC RH more than he’s finished Top 25. For reference, in 8 appearances here, he had 4 MCs, 0 Top 10s and 1 Top 20. Another guy I really don’t have interest in this week.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100 exclude PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/20/50/17
Travelers Results: 13/36/MC/MC
Comp Results: 2/6/6/7/9/10/13/21/26/26/31/31/41/45/54/64
Insights: Collin, Collin, Collin. What are we going to do with you? It always seems to be something holding this guy back, and last week, it was the putter (again). He was downright dreadful on the greens last week, losing almost 9 strokes to the field with the flat stick. That said, he gained nearly 9 strokes with his irons and almost 4.5 strokes OTT. He also gained around-the-green, pushing his Shots Gained: T2G number over 16 strokes at Oakmont. Yet, he only finished 23rd. He hasn’t had much success at this course given the way he’s priced in the betting and DFS markets, but, like Russ, he’s one of those guys that comes to mind when thinking of guys that should succeed as short, positional courses like this one. Third in Sammy’s model this week, Collin is Top 25 in 11 of 16 key stats, including 1st in Driving Accuracy at less-than-driver courses over the last 12 months and 1st in Approach from 100-150 yards over his last 24 rounds. His short game has held him back from being able to consistently card birdies, though, which is trouble at this course. I can’t dip my toe in at sub-20/1 given the short game struggles, but I don’t mind running Collin out in DFS in tandem with someone like Xander — especially if you want to get different and not use Scottie. If his iron play stays hot and he is able to be a 0 on the putting greens, he may have a shot to win this one. I just won’t pay to find out.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 150175
Rank: Top 75% across
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/MC/6/37
Travelers Results: 30/47/47/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 2/3/6/16/28/38/42/64/69/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JJ finally got over the hump, taking home his first win since the 2022 Valero Open and first win at a Major. Some would argue it was only a matter of time after his T2 at the Cognizant and the 2nd-place finish to Rory after a Monday playoff at the Players. Though, it looked like he was going to eject on Sunday when he started the final round with 5 bogeys in his first 6 holes. When the going got tough, he hit his best shots, finishing with 4 birdies in his last 7 holes, including the insane putt on 18 — which he didn’t need in order to win the tournament, but was cool nonetheless. In all, his short game carried him at Oakmont, as he gained almost 10.5 strokes on the greens and 2.5 strokes around-the-greens. That said, TPC RH hasn’t been the best venue for him, as he’s missed the cut here in 3 of his last 4 appearances and has never finished better than T30 in 6 starts here. After such a massive and emotional win, I won’t have any exposure to JJS this week, but he’s priced pretty fairly if you want to ride the wave and throw him into your DFS lineups.
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, BOB 125150, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, BOB 125150, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 23/7/36/MC
Travelers Results: 1/42/54/63/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/2/4/7/9/11/12/13/17/18/19/20/27/27/39/41/48/54/59/68/72
Insights: Jordy continues to churn out solid results, but has yet to put himself in legitimate contention to win a golf tournament in what feels like forever. His game seems to be trending though, gaining strokes OTT in 8 of his last 10 and all but 3 tournaments this year. His iron game hasn’t been the best, but we’ve seen spike performances at the US Open, CJ Cup and Valspar, showing his upside in that department when he is on. Furthermore, his putter has let him down lately, losing strokes in 3 of his last events. All things considered, I don’t have much confidence in him getting to -20 given his lack of all-around performances of late. Not to mention a very poor course history outside of his win here in 2017. For reference, Spieth has not finished better than 42nd here in 5 appearances since that win. He’s lost strokes OTT in every appearance, lost strokes on Approach in 4 of 6, and lost strokes around-the-green in his last 3. It’s a pass for me, especially considering he’s 40th or worse in Driving Accuracy and SG: OTT on less-than-driver courses, as well as birdies-or-better on short courses over the last 6 months. For what it’s worth, he hasn’t been the best on Pete Dye designs over the last 18 months, either.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50 exclude ARD (124), ARD/SCR AVG (107)
Rank: Top 25% exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/3/MC/1
Travelers Results: 10/23/38/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 3/5/7/9/13/14/14/15/16/27/33/39/59/65/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Like Collin and Russ, Sepp is yet another guy that comes to mind when thinking of those who should perform well on these short, positional courses. I thought we might see depressed ownership this week after his horrible Round 1 performance at Oakmont, but the golf community seems to be a bit sharper than it was a few years ago. Sepp rebounded from that +8 opening round with a semi-solid +3 in Round 2, but the damage was done, as he missed the cut by 4 strokes. That said, he’s gained strokes to the field on Approach in 9 of his last 10 solo events and all but 2 events this season. In fact, he’s 4th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds, which pairs nicely with Top 5 marks in Driving Accuracy on less-than-driver courses over the last year and birdies-or-better on short courses this season. The issue is the short game and his wedge play, as he’s outside the top 40 in this field in SG: Putting in easy conditions, SG: Around-the-Green when it’s difficult to very difficult to gain in that area like it is here at TPC RH, and on Approach from 50-100 yards. To add to that, he is one of the 7 most tipped golfers this week. If you can turn a blind eye to his short game, wedge play, and ownership, then fire him up on all accounts. The price is solid, but as someone that was on him last week, recency bias mixed with the other factors is going to keep me off — especially when considering he has just 1 Top 10 finish in 6 appearances here.
Nick Taylor
Odds: +10000
Stats: Top 100 exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, P5
Rank: Top 75% across
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/13/4/MC
Travelers Results: 42/64/MDF/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 8/10/16/22/25/26/41/48/49/49/50/58/73/74/76/79/81
Insights: BDN is another player that has poor course history here, but his stat profile is very interesting for someone that is listed at 100/1 and less than $7,000 on the DK streets. He’s gained strokes on Approach in 5 straight solo events, and he’s gained strokes on the greens in 6 of his last 7. As such, he is 10th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds, as well as Top 20 in birdies-or-better on short courses and SG: Around-the-Green in tough ARG conditions. That’s about where the praise ends, though. His less-than-driver accuracy hasn’t been the best, and his wedge play is a concern, not to mention his Pete Dye performances over the last year and a half (40th in the field SG: T2G on Pete Dye designs). At 100/1 though, you could probably do worse than a multi-time winner on Tour over the last 2 years.
Justin Thomas
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 150175
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/31/MC/2
Travelers Results: 3/5/9/30/36/56/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/3/3/4/5/5/6/7/8/11/11/12/14/24/25/33/33//35/35/56/60/75/75
Insights: JT is yet another guy I like on short, position courses given his win at Harbour Town, 2nd place finish at Philly Cricket, and recent success on this course (back-to-back Top 10 finishes). He was one of the first guys I thought of this week, but I’d be lying if I said his iron play, which was a strength earlier this season, isn’t concerning. He’s lost strokes on Approach in 3 straight events after gaining in every single event since the Genesis in July of last year, but I still find myself intrigued by his upside this week — especially at his price. His putter has actually been very strong this season, gaining on the greens in every event since the API, and last year he gained over 1.5 strokes on these greens in what was a Signature Event. He’s missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 events, both Majors, but I don’t think that’s going to scare me off JT at this number. While I haven’t locked in any bets just yet, JT is firmly on the short list this week, as he’s Top 20 in the field from 50-150 yards over his last 24 rounds. He’s not the most accurate OTT, but he won the Heritage at Harbour Town while losing strokes in that department. He’s 1st in the field in birdies-or-better on short courses, including 1st in Par 4 BOBs on very easy-average courses. Not to mention he’s Top 10 in the field in SG: Putting on easy greens and Bogey Avoidance on short courses. As someone that has performed very well on Pete Dye designs over the last year and a half, JT has the skillset to win this week, even if the recent Approach performances have been bad at best.
Cameron Young
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, BA, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude TG, APP, GIR, AP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/4/25/47
Travelers Results: 9/60
Comp Results: 3/19/22/51/51/54/54/61/62/MC
Insights: Cam Young is one of the most popular names on Tour right now, as he’s complied back-to-back Top 5 finishes at the Canadian Open and the US Open. He’s gained strokes OTT in 4 straight, and his putting performances have been positive dating back to the Masters. That recent success has been noticed within the community, as he’s one of the most tipped golfers this week, but again, it’s for good reason. He carded a Top 10 finish here last year, gaining in all 4 major categories, much like he did last week at the US Open. His game is certainly trending and he seems to be making a push for the US Ryder Cup team, but at increased ownership, I will likely hat-tip Cam this week. His accuracy is still a concern, as is his ability to score on these short, positional Pete Dye courses.