Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tour Champ Results: Finishes at the TOUR Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC River Highlands, TPC Potomac, Muirfield Village and TPC Twin Cities
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +170
Stats: Top 25!!! exclude TD (51), OTT/TD AVG (26), LR3 (28)
Rank: Top 5!!!!!! in field exclude ARD (7), PUTT (6)
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/3/1/8
Tour Champ Results: 1/6/2/22/5
Comp Results: 1/1/1/3/3/4/6/13/22/47/MC/MC
Insights: What is there left to say about Scottie? 13 straight top 10s with 5 wins sprinkled in along the way. Moreover, he’s gained over 8 strokes T2G in 9 of his last 10 events. If you liked him in full-field events at +300 or +350, then you should love him at +150 or better in a 30-man field. Even if you don’t bet him, you have to be conscious of him. Meaning - play your other guys in the w/o Scottie market or with an each way.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +725
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (85), PROX (147), APP AVG (80)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/7/2/6
Tour Champ Results: 9/4/1/14/8/1/7/1/16/2/10
Comp Results: 4/5/5/6/7/7/8/10/11/12/15/15/17/18/19/32/57/MC/MC
Insights: Rory’s irons didn’t quite cooperate last week at Caves Valley, but his putter continues to be scorching hot. In fact, he’s gained more than 2 strokes to the field on the greens in 5 straight events, which has led to 5 consecutive top 20 finishes. East Lake is a course he tends to crush at, as he’s won here 3 times in the last decade with 4 top 10s along the way. For what it’s worth, he’s gained at least 3.5 strokes to the field on the greens in 3 straight starts here, and he picked up at least 1.3 strokes off the tee in each of those events. He’s about the same price as he normally is in full-field events/signature events, so in a 30-man field, Rory feels like a buy this week if you can get past his driving accuracy woes - which rank worst in the field over his last 24 rounds.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (131), ARD (80), SCR (82), ARD/SCR AVG (81), BOB 172500 (76), BOB 200+ (81), LR2 (100)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, BS, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 23/2/23/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/14/27/30/30/37/47/47/52/66/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: After nearly quitting the sport all together, JJS had a tremendous season that deserves applause. This will be his debut at East Lake, so there’s no historical data to deep dive for him at this course. Unfortunately, I don’t think I can get there this week, as his driving accuracy and GIR over his last 24 rounds puts him in the bottom half of this field. His putter is a slight concern as well, as he’s lost strokes to the field in 3 of his last 4 events leading into this week and is a slight net-negative on Bermuda greens this season. Plus, his best comp course finish is 9th. Kudos to Spaun for a great season, but it’s a pass for us this week.
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Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1700
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (137), ARD/SCR AVG (111), P3 (101), LR2 (129), LR3 (118)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 7/9/23/8
Tour Champ Results: 16 (71-68-68-70, 2024)
Comp Results: 5/16/24/27/36/64
Insights: TBCH has been on Aberg the last few weeks, and his game continues to trend in the right direction. For the 2nd straight event, he gained strokes to the field in all of the major SG categories. He’s had some accuracy issues off the tee throughout the season, but he’s just below the middle of the pack this week. If he can stay in the fairway, he should be in the mix thanks to his strong GIR numbers that rank 4th in the field over his last 24 rounds.
Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P5
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P5, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/6/WD/25
Tour Champ Results: 26 (70-69-71-71, 2024)
Comp Results: 5/16/22/25/54/64/MC
Insights: Bhatia’s irons have been a strength of late, as he’s gained at least 1 stroke to the field on approach in 7 straight events. However, his driver and putter have failed to sync up in that span. If he can put a complete performance together, he certainly can contend, but that’s proven to be a big “if” this year, and his lone appearance at this track doesn’t exactly instill confidence in bettors. The price feels right though, so we wouldn’t blame you for a flier on Smoke this week.
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (151), PUTT (105), BOB 175200 (110), P5 (107), LR4 (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude AP 200+, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/44/MC/30
Tour Champ Results: 21/9/26/12/23/11
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/5/7/8/8/8/18/19/23/25/29/30/31/37/37/39/39/39/39/43/46/46/47
Insights: Captain America’s ball-striking at East Lake has left a lot to be desired. Mix that with his poor putting performances in his last 5 events and his Ryder Cup captaincy stress, and you’re left with a less-than-desirable profile. The price feels nice, but having failed to crack the top 15 in any event since his win at the Travelers, his upside in this event is questionable.
Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +12000
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 175200, BS, LR1
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BOB 200+, BA, P4, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/17/38/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 19/31/52/MC/MC
Insights: Kudos to the 25 year old for making it this far despite more missed cuts than top 10s. We haven’t seen too many ceiling performances from him of late, and this is his first appearance at East Lake, so he’s off our radar this week - especially with his inconsistent approach and putting performances over the last 3 months.
Sam Burns
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude TG (102), APP (116), AP 175200 (104), APP 200+ (149), PROX (116), APP AVG (114), LR1 (142)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/28/61/45
Tour Champ Results: 12/9/24/18
Comp Results: 7/12/12/13/15/16/17/17/24/32/43/50/55/61/81/MC/WD
Insights: Burns was squarely in the mix at the BMW last week, but failed to hit enough putts over the weekend to really threaten Scottie at the top. His putting is obviously a strength, especially on Bermuda greens, and pairing that with strong approach play over the last month makes him a viable option this week. He’s in the top half of the field in accuracy and GIR over his last 24 rounds, so fire away on Burns, especially if you have been tracking him lately. We recommend a top 10 placement bet if you are firing on the outright just so you come away with something with another good performance.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +2400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (105), SCR (109), BOB 200+ (103), P3 (118), P5 (124)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, P3, L5; Top 25: GIR, BS, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, AP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 30/9/MC/32
Tour Champ Results: 17/5/7/1/21/21/20
Comp Results: 1/1/3/4/4/5/7/11/12/12/13/13/15/15/24/30/32/35/MC/MC/MC
Insights: PC has just one top 10 performance over the last 3 months. In fact, he has the same number of missed cuts as top 15s over that span. Short game has been the main culprit, as he’s lost strokes ARG/PUTT in 4 straight events. He’s won here in the past with a couple of top 10s sprinkled in over the last 4 years, but he’s never gained strokes on the greens here. There are probably better options in this range, but we recognize that PC could be locked in this week in an effort to make one last push for the Ryder Cup team.
Corey Conners
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (130), ARD (127), ARD/SCR AVG (109), BOB 175200 (104), BOB 200+ (118), BOB AVG (103), P5 (107), LR1 (105), LR4 (109)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 39/50/10/47
Tour Champ Results: 26/26/22/26
Comp Results: 9/13/20/21/22/25/27/39/41/46/53/65/MC/MC/MC
Insights: CC has seemed broken ever since his WD from the US Open. Maybe we will come to hear that his wrist injury was worse than we thought? Hemorrhaging strokes around and on the greens despite solid putting performances earlier in the year. Approach game has been strong, but OTT has been rough in his last 2 events. He’s played here 4 times and has never finished inside the top 20. Going one step further, he’s lost nearly 19 strokes combined on the greens in those 4 appearances. If you’re looking for a reason to NOT bet CC, there it is.
Harris English
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 200+, PROX, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, LR1
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/48/2/22
Tour Champ Results: 18/12/22
Comp Results: 1/4/7/12/13/18/18/19/22/25/43/52/60/62/63/64/MDF/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Harris’s iron play was bad in both of the playoff events so far. He can save bad ball-striking with great putting performances, as he did at the BMW last weekend with 6.2 strokes gained on the greens, but East Lake is not a place he’s putted at particularly well. While he hasn’t played here since 2021, he struggled mightily OTT here, losing an eye-popping 12.5 strokes to the field combined in 3 appearances. That doesn’t bode well for him considering he’s in the bottom half of the field in driving accuracy over his last 24 rounds. He grades poorly in BOB and GIR in this field as well. Just all around red flags for English.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1500
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (118), GIR (103), APP 175200 (143), BOB 175200 (122), P3 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, BOB 175200, P3; Top 25: TG, APP, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P4, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/3/16/34
Tour Champ Results: 20/6/16/11
Comp Results: 2/13/15/16/20/46/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Maybe we should just make Tommy our de facto FOMO pick from now until he wins. I get the field is small, but 15/1? Why? Don’t get me wrong, he’s putting the lights out, and the ball-striking has been very good most weeks, but the clutch gene is non-existent. He doesn’t seem too confident in himself to actually win an event, either. FRL/ Top 5 placement bet, but I’m not touching anything below 30/1 on Tommy until he actually wins a tournament - even in a small field (Sammy).
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (107), APP 200+ (124), PROX (142), APP AVG (92), PUTT (90), LR1 (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, PROX, PUTT; Top 25: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/54/10/3
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 10/31/35/59/61/MC/MC
Insights: Gotterup is bottom of the field in key stats like APP, PROX, PUTT, but there’s also a number of stats in which he is top 8 like OTT, GIR, SCR, BA, P4, P5. He feels like the epitome of a boom-or-bust. Upside can’t be ignored. But we’d be lying if we said we were excited about going back to Gotterup after betting him at the BMW. Maybe the magic has run out for CG. He’s been horribly inaccurate OTT in his las 24 rounds.
Ben Griffin
Odds: +3700
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (100), APP 200+ (118), PROX (148), APP AVG (87), BOB 175200 (91)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, BOB 175200; Top 25: BOB 200+, BA, P5, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/9/11/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/14/20/67/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Great season, but is no better than a middle-of-the-pack player in this field per his season-long key stats, ranking anywhere from 10th to 19th in a vast majority of his metrics. Solid floor here with top 10 potential given solid all-around game. Worry is his accuracy OTT. He ranks 22nd in the field in that metric last 24 rounds, which does not help overcome his lack of distance. 2nd at the Memorial was arguably more impressive than win at Colonial, but his accuracy was elite there - which has not been the case of late.
Harry Hall
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (112), GIR (111), APP 175200 (157), APP 200+ (152), PROX (129), APP AVG (130), BS (120)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, APP, GIR, AP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 6/22/15/28
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/24/56/MC
Insights: Pound-for-pound, H-squared may be just as good, if not better on the greens than Sam Burns. The issue is, he can’t hit fairways or greens consistently lately - though he was positive both OTT and APP las week at Caves. Prior to that, he lost strokes in the ball-striking department in 4 straight. Debut at East Lake gives me slight pause, but this is one of the more intriguing long(er) shots in the field just because the putter has been so good. If he is able to break out of his iron slump, then that should lead to more birdie putts than par putts and a live 55/1 dog. If outright risk isn’t for you, Top 10 placement is certainly on the table.
Brian Harman
Odds: +7500
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, APP 200+, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, LR1
Rank: Bottom 25!!! exclude APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/22/10/50
Tour Champ Results: 23/21/24
Comp Results: 2/3/5/6/7/8/8/8/9/9/18/24/27/33/33/35/41/42/51/71/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: 0 Stats in top 25 of field rank this week. Pure fade. We feel he will be lucky to break top 20 this week.
Russell Henley
Odds: +1900
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (105), TD (161), OTT/TD AVG (133), BOB 200+ (155), LR1 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+, BOB AVG; Top 25: TG, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 15/17/10/2
Tour Champ Results: 4/14/3/12
Comp Results: 2/5/6/6/7/11/16/19/19/27/29/32/33/41/46/48/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: 5th in field rank, and for good reason. Henley has been a model of consistency lately with 6 straight top 20s since his MC at the PGA Champ. He’s gained with the irons and ARG in every one of those events. It’s the driver and the putter than can get lost at times. However, Bermuda is his best putting surface this season, and he’s quite literally 1st in the field in driving accuracy over his last 24 rounds. Maybe his lack of distance hurts slightly, again, he’s been so good everywhere else. I would MUCH rather have a 19/1 ticket on Russ than a 15/1 ticket on Tommy, just saying.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2400
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (131), SCR (133), ARD/SCR AVG (132), PUTT (107), BA (128), LR2 (145)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4, LR2; Top 25: APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 7/32/63/11
Tour Champ Results: 12/1/15/5/20
Comp Results: 1/3/11/13/15/20/25/29/47/48/51/54/WD
Insights: ARD/SCR will be needed around East Lake, and BA and P4 is a concern if he is going to contend on Sunday and earn his 2nd win here in 3 years. APP and BOB been there all year. Winning potential? Yes, definitely, just like he showed at the US Open. But again, he gained strokes ARG at Oakmont just like he did when he won here in 2023. In fact, Oakmont was the last time he actually gained strokes ARG (was even at Caves last week but massively negative in 4 events prior). He’s middle of the pack in field rank in Bermuda putting and putting inside 10 feet, in addition to 24th in Par 3 >200 yards. Have to try to find reasons not to bet a player of Vik’s caliber or else you’re going to be sucked in every week. There’s enough here to be hesitant to buy anything lower than 30, even in a small field.
Sungjae Im
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, P3
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG,TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 40/17/27/MC
Tour Champ Results: 7/24/2/20/11/19
Comp Results: 2/3/8/10/15/16/21/29/41/57/58/61/63/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Props to hIM for getting here with his poor approach all year. 166th in approach! 156 GIR, 163 PROX. He lost 10.8 strokes to the field with his irons last week at the BMW and finished 40th. He very well could have missed the FedEx top 30 had Michael Kim and Rickie Fowler just hit a couple more putts on Sunday. Hard pass. Hope he enjoys a nice, long offseason to reset.
Shane Lowry
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, P5, LR2, LR4
Rank: Top 75 exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2, LR3, LR4; Top 25: AP, APP 175200, PROX, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/59/40/45
Tour Champ Results: 9 (69-69-65-68, 2024)
Comp Results: 6/9/15/16/19/23/32/39/45/49/52/60/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Stats and game aren’t what they were in the middle of the season. Finished T9 here last year and showed an ability to go low with 65 on Saturday, but when looking deeper at what he actually did that weekend, that Saturday round was buoyed by an unreal putting performance - gaining nearly 4 strokes to the field on the greens. He’s a net-negative on Bermuda greens this season, and he’s lost strokes to the field in 6 of his last 7 events - most of them in a significant fashion. Being that he’s also lost strokes in the ball-striking department in 3 straight events, we’re not exactly sure why anyone would have any confidence in Lowry to finish in the top 5 much less win the tournament. At the same odds as Hall, I would much rather go with Harry than Shane.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +3700
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (95), APP 175200 (87), PROX (84), BOB 175200 (89), LR2 (91), LR3 (96), LR4 (86)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 175200, LR3; Top 25: P5, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/38/44/7
Tour Champ Results: 17 (69-71-71-64, 2024)
Comp Results: 16/17/20/MC
Insights: Very good overall raw stats but middle of the road in this field. If we had to guess, he likely will play similar this week to what he last week, but TD is going to be much more important this week and he’s 25th in the field in accuracy over his last 24 rounds. If he’s playing out of the rough so often, it’s going to come down to his flat stick, which is going to be a roller coaster for 72 holes. Hasn’t gone b2b top 10 in any 2 PGA events this year. Not sure I see it happening here after the way in which he gagged it away on Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (126), TD (108), OTT/TD AVG (117), BS (123), LR2 (122), LR3 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BS, PUTT, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 26/1719/16
Tour Champ Results: 9/11/26/15/9/4/26/5/12/22
Comp Results: 1/5/6/7/8/13/13/16/22/23/30/30/38/45/62/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Middle rounds have killed Deki’s momentum, but he has been known to spike in Rounds 1 and 4. T2G and APP numbers excite the gamblor, but he’s middle of road in BOB and P4. You’re going to have to tame expectations on the P5 because of his struggles OTT. Not enough positive course history for us to turn blind eye to OTT struggles.
Maverick McNealy
Odds: +3700
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (122), APP 200+ (118), PROX (125), ARD (116), SCR (125), ARD/SCR AVG (121), LR1 (105), LR2 (104)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, P3, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/28/MC/23
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 3/5/16/17/30/49/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Solid season and top 125 stats across the board. Plays his best on the weekend, top 50 this season LR3 and LR4. If he’s within reach after 36, could be a good live bet for outright or top 5, but pre-tourney - there’s not a ton that inspires betting on upside. Only a single Top 25% of field rank with BOB 175200, though 5 stats rank in Top 10 (TD, OTT/TD AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, LR3)
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (144), ARD (104), SCR (102), ARD/SCR AVG (103), PUTT (140), BOB 200+ (117), P5 (115), LR3 (136)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TD, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PIUTT, BOB 200+, R4, P5, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 33/22/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 2/6/21/26/6
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/13/20/36/42/48/WD/MC/MC/MC
Insights: TG, OTT, APP, BOB, LR1 all say bet but closer look at TD, PUTT and LR3 scoring make it a clearer picture to the Collin of late. Top 15 in LR1 if you’re looking for a reason to bet him in some way on a course on which he finished 2nd last year along with 4 top 2 finishes on comp courses. However, 144th TD is a wild stat for an elite OTT game and is a concern at East Lake with the penal rough always lurking. Bottom 25 on the weekend in this field checks box and P4 and P5 scoring doesnt lead much hope to a quick R1 either in futher thought.
Andrew Novak
Odds: +20000
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR4
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP, GIR, AP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 48/6/MC/63
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 24/30/46/51/54/MC/MC/MC
Insights: 2nd worst field rank stats in field. He’s okay OTT, ARG and P5, but in this field, that wont get you too far. Last in the field in Round 2 and Round 4 scoring is not for the bettor’s well-being unless you are fading. Made it to East Lake thanks for a mid run length of form and the help of team event
Justin Rose
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, SCR, BA, P4, LR2, LR3
Rank: Bottom 25!!! exclude TD, APP, ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P5, LR1, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 30/1/16/6
Tour Champ Results: 26/4/10/2/4/6/2/20/15/11
Comp Results: 1/2/2/3/4/6/8/9/9/13/13/14/19/36/44/68/71/75/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The biggest boom-or-bust guy in the field. Bottom 5 in field in 15 key stats including LR2 and LR3 but Rose blooms on Sundays 4th in field and cashes in if he can get a sniff of the top page of leaderboard. Has shown excellence around East Lake with 4 Top 5 and 2 2nds. Bettors can only dream.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +3700
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (133), OTT/TD AVG (85), ARD (106), ARD/SCR AVG (89), LR1 (136)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TD, ARD, LR1; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/52/7/45
Tour Champ Results: 27/14/7
Comp Results: 3/5/10/14/16/18/23/38/45/45/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Slow starter this year (R1), but rest of the rounds has ability to turn it on. Looking for first top 5 at East Lake in 4th attempt, and course should suit given his accuracy. But, it also may be a bit long for Sepp, who is not known for his distance OTT.
Nick Taylor
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (109), TD (152), OTT/TD AVG (131), APP 200+ (105), BOB (110), BOB 200+ (145), BOB AVG (112), LR1 (126)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 33/44/MC/22
Tour Champ Results: 25 (71-67-69-72, 2023)
Comp Results: 4/15/17/27/29/42/42/46/48/49/64/MDF/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Okay, not great scores here 2 years ago, but Muirfield Village comp is all you need to know. East Lake is a course that can fit BDN eye this week. That being said, his ball-striking performance since the Open has been a concern. Keep expectations in order, but BDN could be the sneakiest bet longer than 75/1 this week.
Justin Thomas
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (105), APP 200+ (128), BS (130), LR1 (152)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BS, SCR, LR1: Top 25: BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P4, LR2, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 33/28/34/22
Tour Champ Results: 14/5/4/2/3/7/2/6
Comp Results: 2/3/4/5/8/9/9/18/30/31/33/36/37/42/56/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Poor LR1 scoring is a concern but solid R2 and R4 shouldn’t be overlooked just because of his poor starts. He has 5 top 5s at East Lake, including a 2nd, and 4 top 5 on comps show the JT is capable of greatness this week. OT is getting better, and 6th p4 scoring along with 4th in BOB should interest bettors this week. We don’t mind it, but buyer beware.
Cameron Young
Odds: +3200
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, P3, LR1
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, LR1, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/5/1/MC
Tour Champ Results: 19 (67-67-70-69, 2022)
Comp Results: 2/9/25/50/52/60/60/MC/MC
Insights: Another player who shows up best this year on the weekend over weekday rounds. Has turned the corner lately, so season stats will bring down the profile for CY, but those watching will keep him in lineups again this week hoping the form continues for one more ride. He’s 2nd in the field LR4 scoring this season, and over his last 24 rounds, he’s 4th OTT, 2nd BOB, 5th BA, 4th APP 200225.