2025 The Memorial Tournament - Player Deep Dives

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club Only (Memorial Tournament specifically)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook, Concession, East Lake, TPC Twin Cities

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Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 10 T2G, OTT, D, APP, APP 200+, GIR, PROX, SCR, BOB, BA, P4, P5; Inside top 65 across the board in season-long key stats this week
Rank: #1 in field in APP, T2G, TD, RPROX (rough proximity), SCR, BA, P4; Top 3 in OTT, APP 150200, APP 200+, P5 BOB, GIR, PROX; Top 50% across the board; INSANE
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/1/1/8
Muirfield Village Results: 1/3/3/22
Comp Results: 1/2/5/5/6/22/29
Insights: What is there to say that hasn’t been said about Scottie? He’s at the top of his game right now and solidly the best player in the world. In what some considered a down year for him, Scottie has reeled off 6 straight top 8 finishes since his T20 at the Players in mid-March. He lapped the field twice at the CJ Cup, he won the PGA Championship at Quail — a course he had significantly less experience at than most — despite arguably not having his best stuff, and he clearly was off at Colonial — yet finished T4 while losing strokes to the field in the short game. Despite the struggles on and around the greens, Scottie gained just over 10 strokes T2G at Colonial, his 3rd straight event gaining that many strokes to the field. Now, he heads to a course that he has absolutely dominated at since 2021, finishing top 3 in each of his last 3 starts and coming off a win here last year in which he gained almost 13 strokes T2G. On average, Scottie has gained close to 4 strokes total per round at Muirfield since 2021. Fire up Scottie in OAD and DFS, and a single-barrel outright bet shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities, either.

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR, Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5
Rank: Top 75%, Top 10 in field: TG, OTT, APP, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 50/17/MC/54
Muirfield Village Results: 2/2/48/WD/MC (5 last 17 in 60s, Low 66)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/6/6/21/26/68
Insights: Poor OTT and APP play for Collin’s standards in his last 2 starts but I didn’t peg Quail Hollow or first time track for the Truist to be up his alley so I bit of a pass for me there. Now we get a totally different ballgame here at Muirfield where Collin beat Justin Thomas in a playoff at the Workday back in 2020. If you want to write off his 2nd place here in 2021 (Rahm covid test when leading by 6 after R3) and the Workday I get it but his 2nd place here last year in a duel that went down to the wire against Scottie cannot be overlooked. Collin’s approach numbers here at off the page elite and just needs putter to cooperate (gained on these greens in 4 of 6 starts) and he will be on first page yet again looking for his first win of 2025 and first since 2023 ZOZO. Winner and 2nd places at comp courses are just the cherry to the hopeful winner’s milkshake this week for Collin.

Justin Thomas
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 10 T2G, APP, BOB, P4; 100th or worse OTT, SCR
Rank: Top 10 in APP, T2G, ARD, PUTT, APP 100150, RPROX, BOB, P4, P5 BOB; Top 50% across the board except OT, ACC, DFEF, GD (Good Drive %), SCR
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/2/1/36
Muirfield Village Results: 33, MC, 42, 18, MC, 8, 4, MC, MC, 37
Comp Results: 2/2/2/3/3/4/5/6/7/10/10/13/14/15/18/64/MC/MC
Insights: Ball-striking a Quail wasn’t good, as it was the first time JT lost strokes with his irons since July 2024 at the Scottish Open. Surprisingly, JT’s short game has been very good of late. Since losing more than 5 strokes on the greens at the API, JT has rattled off 6 straight positive performances on the greens, including a 5+ strokes gained performance in his win at Harbour Town and 6.5+ strokes in his 2nd place finish at Valspar. OTT struggles are most concerning here, as he’s lost more than a stroke in that department 5 times this season — which matches the number of times he’s gained at least 1 stroke OTT. In short, roller coaster at best OTT. Wide fairways at Muirfield, but highly penal if missed, and being 50th or worse in field this year in OTT, ACC and DFEF (distance from edge of fairway) doesn’t instill much confidence in JT being able to avoid the rough at Jack’s place enough to contend. Despite what feels like an elite comp course profile, JT’s results at MV are equally as concerning as his OTT game right now. At the betting price, it’s a hat-tip from me.

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