Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club Only (Memorial Tournament specifically)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook, Concession, East Lake, TPC Twin Cities
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 10 T2G, OTT, D, APP, APP 200+, GIR, PROX, SCR, BOB, BA, P4, P5; Inside top 65 across the board in season-long key stats this week
Rank: #1 in field in APP, T2G, TD, RPROX (rough proximity), SCR, BA, P4; Top 3 in OTT, APP 150200, APP 200+, P5 BOB, GIR, PROX; Top 50% across the board; INSANE
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/1/1/8
Muirfield Village Results: 1/3/3/22
Comp Results: 1/2/5/5/6/22/29
Insights: What is there to say that hasn’t been said about Scottie? He’s at the top of his game right now and solidly the best player in the world. In what some considered a down year for him, Scottie has reeled off 6 straight top 8 finishes since his T20 at the Players in mid-March. He lapped the field twice at the CJ Cup, he won the PGA Championship at Quail — a course he had significantly less experience at than most — despite arguably not having his best stuff, and he clearly was off at Colonial — yet finished T4 while losing strokes to the field in the short game. Despite the struggles on and around the greens, Scottie gained just over 10 strokes T2G at Colonial, his 3rd straight event gaining that many strokes to the field. Now, he heads to a course that he has absolutely dominated at since 2021, finishing top 3 in each of his last 3 starts and coming off a win here last year in which he gained almost 13 strokes T2G. On average, Scottie has gained close to 4 strokes total per round at Muirfield since 2021. Fire up Scottie in OAD and DFS, and a single-barrel outright bet shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities, either.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR, Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5
Rank: Top 75%, Top 10 in field: TG, OTT, APP, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 50/17/MC/54
Muirfield Village Results: 2/2/48/WD/MC (5 last 17 in 60s, Low 66)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/6/6/21/26/68
Insights: Poor OTT and APP play for Collin’s standards in his last 2 starts but I didn’t peg Quail Hollow or first time track for the Truist to be up his alley so I bit of a pass for me there. Now we get a totally different ballgame here at Muirfield where Collin beat Justin Thomas in a playoff at the Workday back in 2020. If you want to write off his 2nd place here in 2021 (Rahm covid test when leading by 6 after R3) and the Workday I get it but his 2nd place here last year in a duel that went down to the wire against Scottie cannot be overlooked. Collin’s approach numbers here at off the page elite and just needs putter to cooperate (gained on these greens in 4 of 6 starts) and he will be on first page yet again looking for his first win of 2025 and first since 2023 ZOZO. Winner and 2nd places at comp courses are just the cherry to the hopeful winner’s milkshake this week for Collin.
Justin Thomas
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 10 T2G, APP, BOB, P4; 100th or worse OTT, SCR
Rank: Top 10 in APP, T2G, ARD, PUTT, APP 100150, RPROX, BOB, P4, P5 BOB; Top 50% across the board except OT, ACC, DFEF, GD (Good Drive %), SCR
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/2/1/36
Muirfield Village Results: 33, MC, 42, 18, MC, 8, 4, MC, MC, 37
Comp Results: 2/2/2/3/3/4/5/6/7/10/10/13/14/15/18/64/MC/MC
Insights: Ball-striking a Quail wasn’t good, as it was the first time JT lost strokes with his irons since July 2024 at the Scottish Open. Surprisingly, JT’s short game has been very good of late. Since losing more than 5 strokes on the greens at the API, JT has rattled off 6 straight positive performances on the greens, including a 5+ strokes gained performance in his win at Harbour Town and 6.5+ strokes in his 2nd place finish at Valspar. OTT struggles are most concerning here, as he’s lost more than a stroke in that department 5 times this season — which matches the number of times he’s gained at least 1 stroke OTT. In short, roller coaster at best OTT. Wide fairways at Muirfield, but highly penal if missed, and being 50th or worse in field this year in OTT, ACC and DFEF (distance from edge of fairway) doesn’t instill much confidence in JT being able to avoid the rough at Jack’s place enough to contend. Despite what feels like an elite comp course profile, JT’s results at MV are equally as concerning as his OTT game right now. At the betting price, it’s a hat-tip from me.
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Daniel Berger
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 25 T2G, OTT, TD, APP, APP 200+, PROX, BS, SCR, BA, P4; Outside top 100 APP 175200, PUTT, P3
Rank: Top 10 in field in APP, OTT, T2G, ACC, TD, APP 200+, SCR, BA, P4; 40th or worse PUTT, RPROX, P3, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: MC/33/11/3
Muirfield Village Results: 5 (2022)/MC/67/MC
Comp Results: 11/11/12/15/15/15/15/35/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: A TBCH favorite, Berger has been on many of our betting cards this season, including last week when he MC at Colonial. His profile is so interesting right now in that he is ball-striking at an elite level, but his short-game is hemorrhaging strokes. In fact, Berger has lost more than 1 stroke on the greens in each of the last 4 events, including almost 2.5 strokes lost at Quail and almost 4.5 strokes lost at Colonial. In the last 2 events, he only has 2 positive rounds putting, and it was really more like 1 considering he gained only 0.017 strokes on the greens in Round 3 at Quail. Berger has the talent to flash anywhere, but he hasn’t played Muirfield since 2022, and with the short game issues right now, I’m going to have to pass while keeping an eye on his putting. If he shows positive momentum with the flat stick, he might be worth a live bet at some point.
Eric Cole
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 25 BOB175200, P3; Outside top 50 in everything else other than APP 175200, APP 200+, SCR; Outside top 100 OTT, TD, GIR, BS, P5
Rank: Top 35 in field in APP, ARD, PUTT, APP 150200, SCR, P3; 50th or worse OTT, T2G, ACC, TD, GIR, RPROX, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/41/34/5
Muirfield Village Results: 45/24
Comp Results: 12/30/33/MC
Insights: A brutal start to the season has started to level out, as Cole has gained strokes on APP in 8 straight solo events, while gaining on the greens in 6 of those. The worry is OTT, where he’s lost strokes in 7 of those 8 events. The wide landing zones at Muirfield haven’t helped him in the past either considering he’s lost nearly 3 strokes OTT in 2 starts at the Memorial. Despite the OTT struggles, Cole has 4 Top 20 finishes in his last 8 solo evens, including a top 5 at the CJ Cup. This field is obviously much stronger than the CJ Cup, so I think his ceiling is around a Top 20 in this field and at this course. He could be a solid 4th option in your DFS lineups as well.
Corey Conners
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD, P3, Top 25: TG, OTT, GIR, PROX, P4, ER2
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, OTT, OTT AVG, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, BA, P4, LR1, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4 , ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/11/49/8
Muirfield Village Results: 13/20/22/53/65/MC (4 of last 14 in 60s, Low 68)
Comp Results: 8/16/21/22/26/26/26
Insights: Great run of form in his last 8 starts (3-6-8-18-8-49-11-19) including 2 Top 20 in majors and 3 Top 11 in Signature Events. How he contends on the weekend will be determined around and on the greens at Muirfield. Looking at his historical play around Jack’s Place, we have OTT 6/6, APP 3/6, ARD 3/6, PUTT 3/6. Still looking for his first Top 10 here, but I have a sneaky suspicion he gets it this week. Rightful top Canadian in field at +135.
Harris English
Odds: +6600
Stats: Top 50 TD, BS, PUTT, BA; Outside Top 100 APP 175-200, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, BOB, P3, P5
Rank: Top 25 PUTT, ACC, SCR, BA, GIR; Bottom 50% ARD, DD, APP 100200, APP 200, RPROX, BOB
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 53/2/11/66
Muirfield Village Results: MC/52/MC/13/18/62
Comp Results: 7/10/12/18/18/22/27/38/54/66/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Harris has had some bright spots this season, including a win at Torrey and a back-door T2 finish at the PGA Champ. However, outside those 2 events, he has failed to put his entire game together for 4 rounds. There are some inconsistencies with his irons and his short game this year, which likely won’t go away this week at Muirfield — where Harris has lost strokes on APP in 3 straight appearances (over 10 strokes total). If he had better recent course history, I would consider a T20 bet on English, but I’m going to pass this week knowing he has struggled to hit these small greens in the past.
Tony Finau
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, ER1
Rank: Top 75% exclude P5, ER1, Top 25%: OTT, TD, OTT AVG, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/15/39/MC
Muirfield Village Results: 8/8/8/11/13/32/40/MC (5 last 18 in 60s, Low 66)
Comp Results: 1/3/5/7/7/7/9/11/12/14/15/17/20
Insights: Big Tone has been on my radar for a while now and his results are making others take note as well after back to back Top 20 finishes at Truist and the PGA Champ in his last start. Off the Tee continues to be consistent and the elite gain with his irons at Quail should give bettors some intrigue that his first win since 2023 Mexico Open is right around the corner. Obviously has a liking to Jack’s Place with his 3 Top 10 finishes and looking into those stats those weeks, it was all about his OTT, APP and PUTT numbers. The last is what lights me up about Tony’s chances this week. Give me that App spike with a better than average putting week (gained on Muirfield’s greens in 6 of his 8 starts here) and Tony will have a chance on the back 9 on Sunday. Mark it down.
Ryan Gerard
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 50 T2G, TD, APP, APP 200+, SCR, P3, P4; Outside Top 100 APP 175200, PROX, P5
Rank: Top 25 in field APP, T2G, PUTT, DFEF, APP 200+, SCR, BA, P3, P4; 40th or worse TD, APP 150200, PROX, RPROX, BOB, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 73/8/42/MC
Muirfield Village Results: Debut
Comp Results: 57/57/71
Insights: Gerard has 3 Top 10s in his last 7 events, and has played great golf in that stretch, nearly taking down the Valero and being in the mix for multiple FRL bets. However, Gerard is making his debut at Muirfield this week, and with very limited and underwhelming comp course results, I am pumping the brakes on RG this week. I’m also weary of his putter. Not only did he lose almost 7 strokes putting at Colonial, but he’s lost strokes on the greens in 4 of his last 5 events, which is concerning when you consider his roller-coaster ball-striking performances in the last 2 months. For reference, his irons haven’t been much help to him of late. In his last 4 events, he’s gained fewer than 0.3 strokes or lost strokes on APP in 3 of them. His only significant gain was at Quail, which, I guess, could be a good sign for him at Memorial. But again, I’m not going to bet on it.
Lucas Glover
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 125 exclude BO 200, P4, LR1, ER2.
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT, BOB 200, P4, P5, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 22/37/66/61
Muirfield Village Results: (1 last 16 in 60s, Low 67 R1 2018)
Comp Results: 4/7/8/8/10/11/13/18/18/20/24/25
Insights: 20th appearance playing The Memorial this week for the Glove. Hasnt missed a tournament since 2007; however, his best finish here was in his DEBUT back in 2005 with a T8. Irons on the consistent side of gaining; however, more like a rollercoaster on the greens and Off the Tee even at a plotters course like Colonial last week (lost 0.42 to field). Perhaps a matchup bet against a debutant could be in cards, but better options even with all the course history to go with the Glove this week.
Brian Harman
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 125 exclude LR1, ER2; Top 100 exclude: OTT, TD, OTT AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, P5
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB, ER2; Top 25%: GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 46/60/46/3
Muirfield Village Results: 18/27/33/33/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC (2 last 16 in 60s, Low 69)
Comp Results: 5/7/14/21/23/24/25/41
Insights: Harman been making his mark in his last 6 starts off the back of a warm putter. Even a shorter track at Colonial last week, he lost OTT. He is capable of a spike week with the irons which led to his victory this year at the Valero Texas Open. Hard for me to predict that he can repeat the feat this week when I look at his stats around Muirfield Village and see only 2 gains (2019 and 2022) in 9 starts at The Memorial. Big price for a major champion would will give you his money’s worth on Sundays when in the mix, I just don’t see him getting near the front page to start the sweat unfortunately.
Russell Henley
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 25 GIR, PROX, ARD, BOB, BA, P3, P4; Outside Top 100 OTT, TD, SCR, P5
Rank: Top 25% APP, T2G, ARD, PUTT, ACC, APP 100150, BOB, BA, P3, P4, GIR, PROX; Bottom 50% OTT, DD, RPROX
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/46/8/MC
Muirfield Village Results: 27/16/MC/29/33/MC/MC/^
Comp Results: 3/4/9/12/14/42/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Brutal scenes OTT for Russ-Bus of late. Has lost at least a stroke to the field in 3 straight events and was basically even in his MC at the Masters. Mix in 4 events of last 5 in which he lost strokes on the greens, and you can see why he has more MCs since T10s since his win at the API. Will continue to give him a gentleman’s pass for now due to that win, but absolutely not a profile I want to bet on, including in DFS, or use in OAD. Just a complete pass for me, which is an easy-made decision given his best finish at Muirfield is a T6 back in 2013 — his first appearance of 8 total to this day. That was his lone T10 at the course, and he has more MC’s than T20s.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 25 T2G, ARD, BOB, P4, P5; Top 80 Across board except PUTT, P3
Rank: Top 25 in field in APP, OTT, 2G, ARD, ACC, TD, APP 150+, RPROX, SCR, BOB, BA, P4, P5 BOB; Outside Top 50 PUT, PROX, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 28/8/17/15
Muirfield Village Results: 15/4/13/9/18/41/29/WD/74
Comp Results: 10/20/46/59/MC/WD/MC
Insights: SWK’s game is definitely trending, gaining strokes T2G in all solo events since the beginning of February except the Valero. Despite 3 cuts in 4 events from late March to late April, SWK has 4 straight Top 30 finishes coming into this event, as well as 2 Top 10s this season. While he hasn’t truly competed to win a tournament this season, he returns to Muirfield this week, where he’s had a ton of success. In fact, SWK has gained BS, ARD and T2G in 4 straight appearances at the Memorial, all of which led to a Top 15 finish. Odds depending, SWK is a great placement bet in the Top 10 and Top 20 markets (including ties). Considering he has not finished inside the Top 5 since August, it’s difficult to trust him to win this event, but at close to 50/1, I wouldn’t mind an outright bet with each way places on SWK (you can find those at Bet365 or BetRivers depending on what state you live in).
Shane Lowry
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 10 T2G, APP, PROX, P3; Top 25 APP 175-200, ARD, SCR, BA, P4; Outside Top 100 APP 200+, P5
Rank: Top 25% APP, T2G, ARD, ACC, GD, APP 100200, PROX, RPROX, SCR, BA, P3, P4; Bottom 50% PUTT, DD, TD, 200+, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/2/12/18
Muirfield Village Results: 49/16/32/6/MC/52/15/MC
Comp Results: 8/9/12/48/49
Insights: Despite a Top 10 profile on the PGA TOUR this year, the Shane Train has not hoisted a PGA TOUR/Major trophy without the help of Rory since the 2019 Open at Portrush. He’s been close a couple times this year with 2nd place finishes at Pebble and the Truist, but a precious solo PGA TOUR win continues to elude him. Shane’s biggest issue this season is the putter. He has more events in which he lost more than a stroke putting than he does events with at least a half stroke gained. However, of the 4 major shots-gained categories this week, putting is by far the easiest here at Muirfield. Ball-striking is by far the hardest, and Lowry has excelled as a ball-striker this season, there’s no doubt about that. He’s top 3 on Tour in Approach this season, and he’s a very accurate driver of the ball. When he does miss, he’s able to clean up, as shown by a top 25 mark in good drive %, a top 15 mark in proximity from the rough and a top 10 scrambling grade. He’s been competitive enough this season to have been able to taste a victory, which I like. I also think the weather may favor Lowry here, as it’s not expected to be hot or humid. I originally didn’t like the price on him given how long it’s been since he’s won a solo event on Tour, but his profile coming into this event is very strong. I’ll take a shot on Suga-Shane this week (with each way), even if this course hasn’t been the nicest to him.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD AVG, PUTT
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, Top 25%: TG, OTT, OTT AVG, GIR, BS
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 6/47/34/32
Muirfield Village Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 17/33/61/MC
Insights: Set to defend his Canadian Open title next week, Bobby Mac faces a track he has yet to play on the PGA Tour; however, I expect him to have card many rounds around Jack’s Place before he calls it a career. Last week’s Top 10 was on the back of hot irons and a putter that finally warmed up and was his largest gain on the year at 1.29 (2nd best was 1.14 at WMPO). I had high hopes for Mac at the Masters then I let him ride off and outside of last week, happy to have stayed off the train. No course history here and 0 Top 10s on comps doesn’t give me much hope this week especially with defending probably in the back on his mind for next week and obligations, etc. I would consider rostering him in DFS, maybe a First Round Leader bet or R1 match-up, hoping he carries on his great play from last week into Ohio.
Aaron Rai
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 25 T2G, APP, GIR, P4; Outside Top 100 APP175+, ARD, SCR, PUTT, P3
Rank: Top 25 in field APP, OTT, T2G, ACC, GIR, APP 150200, RPROX, BOB, P4, P5 BOB; 45th or worse PUTT, APP 200+, PROX, SCR, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/19/23/38
Muirfield Village Results: MC/26
Comp Results: 18/20/23/MC
Insights: Another guy that has seemingly been held back by his short-game, Aaron has gained ball-striking in all but 1 of his events over the last 3 months while losing more than 1 stroke on the greens in 4 of them and only gaining strokes in 3. In fact, he lost more than 5 strokes on the greens combined at Colonial and Quail, and now returns to a course where he lost almost 3.5 strokes on the greens in a MC in 2023. His price is fair I would say, but he’s only truly been in the mix at one event this year — the Mexico Open. I need to see more on hard courses in difficult fields in order to trust him to win at one of the toughest courses on Tour against someone like Scottie. Top 20 ceiling here mostly due to how accurate he is OTT, but likely will be left off my card. For what it’s worth, he had 3 Top 10s and 2 other Top 20s in the 6 events leading into his win at Sedgefield last year. His game is not near that level right now.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD; Top 25%: TG, TD, APP, GIR, PROX, BS, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 6/37/17/42
Muirfield Village Results: 30/MC/MC (0 Rounds in 60s in 8 rounds)
Comp Results: 9/27/37/66/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Zero rounds in the 60s isn’t a major red flag this week, but losing on the greens in each start here is bright yellow into red. Another Total Driving track this week, similar in that regard to Colonial (comparisons stop there), where he finished T6 and gained in all major strokes gained areas. Looking at JJ’s stat profile nothing jumps off the page at you about elite; however, gaining 1.5 strokes against the field in his last 3 starts is something to note especially when playing DFS. Has shown this season to pop in big name events (playoff loss to Rory at PLAYERS most notably but also has contended at Sony and Honda. I think Muirfield is a tough track, but also tells you the types of players that excel here. Spaun could suprise, but similar to last week with Griffin, I will be on sidelines even if he can crack the Top 20.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD; Top 10 in field: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP200, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 200, BA, P3, P4, P5, LR1, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/1/12/13
Muirfield Village Results: 5/16/45/61/MC (2 last 18 rounds in 60s, Low 68)
Comp Results: 7/14/18/27/29/46
Insights: Missed cut at PGA Champ is forgiven for Sepp after his 2nd win on the season at the Truist. Fully rested after not playing the Colonial and ready to contend on a track where he finished T5 last year even while struggling with a 76 on Sunday. Hasn’t lost on Approach in back to back starts this season and no reason to think it starts this week, with his only losses on APP at Muirfield were back in his 1st and 2nd times playing the course in 2020 and 2021. Since he has gained OTT, APP and PUTT in his last 3 trips around Jack’s Place. Personally, the odds feel disrespectful for a player that has won multiple times this year including a signature event. I do worry about his current state of around the green (losses in 4 last 5) if you want to nitpick, but I think those that won’t back Sepp this week are still non believers in his ability to win over if he can get up and down this week. People don’t want to play him for the MC or not liking him, gives you even more levarage to play one of the best performers on tour this season. Fire away!
Nick Taylor
Odds: +17500
Stats: Top 125 exclude LR1, Top 100 exclude OTT, OTT AVG, APP 200+, P5
Rank: Top 75% exclude OTT, Top 25% APP, GIR, APP AVG, SCR, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 0/4 , APP 3/4 , ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/17/12/49
Muirfield Village Results: 27/42/49/MC/MC (2 last 16 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 10/24/24/25/46
Insights: You know what you are going to get out of BDN for the most part. Average Off the Tee play and Around the Green with a sprinkle of hope that he can get both the Approach and Putter working on the same day and the same week. Based on current season of work, it has been a tough gauge to figure out where all the pieces will fit together. Adam Hadwin’s run here last year gives me thought that Canadians do like this course so I could see another Top 20 potential for Nick at a decent price given his odds, but I would lean Conners as top Canadian this week.