Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
RBC Canadian Open Results: Finishes at Canadian Opens Only
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC San Antonio, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Scottsdale, Vidanta Vallarta, St. George’s
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +450
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175, APP 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 47/7/12/1
RBC Canadian Open Results: 1/1/4/9
Comp Results: 2/3/13/25/32/46/MC
Insights: Rory might be the betting favorite at the RBC Canadian Open, but let’s be real…that number is riding off reputation, not reality. Yes, he’s dominated this event in the past, but that was on completely different tracks with actual course history to lean on. This week? Clean slate, brand new venue, and Rory’s iron game is in shambles — losing nearly two strokes on Approach in back-to-back solo starts, including at Quail Hollow, where he’s basically the unofficial mayor. Since winning the Masters, Rory’s been sleepwalking through his swing, and while he has the talent to flip a switch, recent Sundays have shown he just doesn’t have that cold-blooded closer gene like Scottie. He nearly coughed up Augusta multiple times. Betting Rory at a near-Scottie price with a major looming? That’s a sucker’s play.
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25%: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 16/MC/60/54
RBC Canadian Open Results: 25 (Debut as Professional)
Comp Results: 14/MC/MC
Insights: What a confusing and weird season for big Swede. He has as many WDs and MCs as Top 20s, and most facets of his game have let him down outside of his Driver. Sammy was on him last week outright and FRL and at Quail as a FRL, but maybe he was a bit too early on Aberg — who showed signs of life in the final round of the Memorial. He gained nearly 6 strokes T2G on Sunday at Muirfield, highlighted by a spike round on APP and ARD. However, the price this week is difficult to digest. Aberg was 25+ at Jack’s Place and his FRL price at Quail was 30+. At less than 20/1, I want to see more consistency in Aberg’s all-around game before paying a price like this.
Corey Conners
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 200+, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/19/11/49
RBC Canadian Open Results: 6/6/20/80/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/14/15/17/18/25/26/28/35/38/45/50/74
Insights: Big Maple returns to his homeland this week after being on both Champ and Sammy’s cards last week in different fashion. Unfortunately for TBCH crew and patrons, CC couldn’t get out of his own way at the Memorial. It felt like he had a bogey or a double for every birdie or good par save he made all week long, but especially on the weekend when he lost almost 5 strokes on APP in Rounds 3 and 4 combined. Every time he started to make a run, he ripped off a couple bogeys or worse and plummeted down the leaderboard. Another guy that we like and have been tracking for some time, it was surprising to see him struggle so much which his irons considering he had gained with them in 8 straight events. While his price isn’t the most exciting this week, CC is one of the names you could consider at this course, so long that you can get at least 20/1. Fire up in DFS/OAD, as you may get depressed ownership coming off a bad week, on top of the fact that he’s the priciest Canadian on the board despite not ever finishing better than T6 in this event. For what it’s worth, a loose course comp for TPC Toronto is TPC San Antonio, which is interesting for CC — as he’s won at that course twice. Specifically notable on that course are the elevated greens with surrounding bunkers below green-level, and while CC hasn’t been good ARD lately, he has gained around those elevated greens in his last 3 trips to TPC SA. Take that however you may, but of the top 3 names on the board, I like CC the most at his price.
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Sam Burns
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude TG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP, APP 200+, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/19/30/5
RBC Canadian Open Results: 4/10/MC
Comp Results: 2/3/5/6/22/23/49/76/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Similar to Aberg, Sam Burns is having a weird season while being let down by most of the clubs in his bag. Unlike Aberg, it’s the putter that’s helped Burns the most, not his Driver. In fact, Burns has gained strokes on the green in every event since the Genesis and every event this season minus WMPO and Pebble. That’s about where the good play ends for Sam, as he had lost strokes on Approach in every event since the WMPO before the Memorial — where he gained just over 1 stroke with his irons. While I can admit his game seems to be trending with 5 straight Top 30s despite an incomplete all-around game, I personally want to see more consistency with his irons and more gains with the Driver (mostly flirting with even in SG: OTT) before I bet Burns to win a tournament — especially at 30/1 or below. However, I wouldn’t blame anyone if they wanted to be early on Sammy in an event without his buddy Scottie.
Ricky Castillo
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 60 this season T2G, OTT, TD, GIR, PROX, SCR, P4; Outside Top 200 PUTT, SS, DFEF
Rank: Top 30 in field T2G, OTT, APP, TD, GD, P4, BA, SCR; Top 50 in field in APP 150200, APP 200+; Outside Top 100 PUTT, P3, SS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
Form: 59/37/5/38
RBC Canadian Open Results: Debut
Comp Results: 5/55
Insights: Checking in at 2nd in Sammy’s model this week and as Sammy’s OAD selection this week against Champ, Castillo looks like a good fit for this course on paper. He is quite strong T2G and in P4 scoring, and has a high floor because of that — making 10 of 14 cuts this season with 5 Top 40s. He also has been strong OTT, which is going to be necessary at TPC Toronto this week. Just to highlight how good Castillo has been, he is 6th in this field in T2G L36 rounds (consistent over a longer period of time) and 20th in APP last 16 rounds (hot Irons), in addition to Top 15 in Scrambling, GIR, and Par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds (my standard recent form sample size). While TPC Toronto should play harder than the Byron Nelson, Castillo’s Top 5 finish at the CJ Cup is intriguing given he should be able to have similar success as a ball-striker with wider fairways and greens to land on. Putting and Par 3 performance is worrisome, as well has his ability to save par from greenside bunkers, but as a 5th or 6th guy in a DFS lineup, he should perform admirably. Top 20 upside. If you want to sprinkle on the outright, I suggest betting with each-way or T5/T10 as well as FRL.
Luke Clanton
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 25 this season (16 rds) OTT; Outside Top 100 PUTT, ARD, TD, GIR, SCR
Rank: Top 25 in field in T2G, OTT; Outside Top 60 in ARD, PUTT, TD; Outside Top 100 ACC, SCR
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
COLLEGIATE FORM: 22/1/14/1
PGA FORM: 42/18/MC/15
RBC Canadian Open Results: Debut
Comp Results: MC (WMPO)
Insights: Clanton is pulling an Aberg in that this will be his first event as a PGA Tour professional following a storied college career. Oddsmakers seem to think he has a reasonable shot to win this event, as he currently is listed ahead of PGA Tour veterans like Keith Mitchell, Nick Taylor, Kurt Kitayama, Wyndham Clark and Justin Rose, but I’m not biting at that price. In his few PGA events this season, he hasn’t been able to put it together throughout the bag for 4 full rounds, especially in his short game. He certainly has the distance, but can he keep it in the fairway and out of the rough this week? I’m not so sure considering he’s 99th or worse in the field in driving accuracy and distance from the edge of the fairway. Aside from accuracy, his biggest weakness is ARD, and I believe TPC Toronto will offer some difficult challenges for him in those areas. Keep an eye on Clanton at places like TPC Deere Run or in the fall swing.
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 150175, APP 200+, BOB 150175
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 28/13/15/12
RBC Canadian Open Results: MC (2022)
Comp Results: 15/24/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Gotterup has had a tough season, missing the cut in 8 of the 16 PGA Tournaments he’s played. However, he’s found his form of late, collecting 5 of his 7 Top 30 performances in his last 6 events. None of those events had the best fields, but he gained T2G and OTT in all of them (aside from Corales where there is no shot link data), and even gained ARD in 4 of them. However, the lone course he lost strokes ARD was at TPC SA, which seems to have similar ARD architecture as TPC Toronto. Furthermore, his APP game has been suspect. He’s 70th in this field in SG: APP last 16 rounds and has gained strokes with the irons in just a couple of those most recent events. I don’t mind Gotterup as a make cut parlay piece or a DFS roster piece with Top 20 upside, but I don’t see him competing for the win in this event given his struggles with his irons and putter.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Odds: +10000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD/SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 150175
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 41/56/2/MC
RBC Canadian Open Results: 35/MC
Comp Results: 8/28/33/36/52/56/75
Insights: Since his Top 10 finish at Vidanta - a comp course for his week - Nicolai has finished in the Top 20 just once in 7 solo events. In fact, he missed the cut 4 times since his 8th-place finish in Mexico, which is 1 more than the amount of made cuts he has since then. While he made the cut in his 2 most recent events, he was an afterthought at best, finishing 56th at the CJ Cup and 41st at the PGA Championship. His ARD game has been a consistent loser this season, and his irons haven’t been much better since gaining more than 3 strokes on APP at the Cognizant — where he finished 18th. APP and PUTT gains at Quail are good signs, but OTT and ARG held him back. Top 5 in the field in GIR and Top 45 in APP 150-200, 200+ last 24 rounds highlight his upside with the irons when he’s on, and his Total Driving is at least serviceable for how we project this course to play. However, the total package is hard to buy into given his current run of form outside the Top 40.
Sungjae Im
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 150175, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 150175, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 0/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/MC/23/33
RBC Canadian Open Results: 7 (2019)
Comp Results: 6/7/17/20/33/34/56/66
Insights: Is Sungjae Him broken? I mean, at least his irons are. He’s lost strokes on APP in every event this season sans the Masters, Cognizant, Farmers and the Sentry. He’s played 16 events this year. That right there is enough to keep me off at these odds, especially considering there is no sign that he’s going to right the ship in that department anytime soon — as he lost over 6 strokes on APP at the Memorial. OTT, ARD are positives in his game, and the Putting is at least serviceable, but how can you trust him for 4 rounds with such bad APP numbers? For reference, he’s 128th in the field in SG: APP last 16 rounds, as well as 103 in GIR, 123rd APP 150-200 and 106th in P3 over his last 24 rounds. On the flip side, he’s 2nd in ARD, 8th in P4 and 17th in Total Driving last 24 rounds. Make of that what you will, but it’s a pass for me until I see some progression from his irons.
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 150175, PUTT, BOB 175200
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/MC/5/MC
RBC Canadian Open Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/5/8/23/49/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Kitty was pretty good at the end of last season and through the fall swing, but that momentum cooled off. His best finishes are 5th and 22nd at CJ Cup and Charles Schwab, respectively, which are 2 of his last 3 events. He has 7 missed cuts since the start of the year, and that Top 5 is his only finish in the Top 20 of any event this season. Having said that, the irons woke up at TPC Craig Ranch and Quail Hollow, as did his ARD game — leading to 3 straight finishes with T2G gains. He’s even gained on the greens in 2 of his last 3 events, which may be a sign to buy in what looks like a weaker field on paper. The APP and PUTT categories were his biggest issues during his rough stretch. If he’s found something in either department, let alone both, he could fend for his 2nd Top 20 finish of the season. If he gains with irons and putter, he may even find himself on the first page of the leaderboard.
Shane Lowry
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 125 exclude P5
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 23/MC/2/12
RBC Canadian Open Results: 2/10/12/33/42/MC
Comp Results: 6/12/15/16/58/60/65/MC
Insights: Sugar Shane arrives at this week’s event coming off his ninth Top 25 finish of the season. He showed flashes of brilliance last week, but a tough final round 77 on Sunday dashed any hopes of cashing his each-way bet at +3600 with Sammy. His week was a true rollercoaster — elite performances on Thursday (+5 APP) and Saturday (+4 APP), yet struggle bus on Friday (-3 APP) and Sunday (-1 APP). The elite gains are what gives me hope this week. The other side of the coin is his putting and closing ability. Despite a Top 100 ranking on the greens this year, Shane has lost strokes with the putter in three of his last four rounds, and his Late Round 4 scoring average of 140th is putrid. Each-Way, OAD and FRL markets make a lot of sense if you like short term less buys on Shane over a sweaty Sunday outright.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP AVG, BS, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 20/6/47/34
RBC Canadian Open Results: Won (2024)
Comp Results: 6/6/8/35/MC/MC
Insights: The Return of the Mac is teeing up to defend his RBC Canadian Open crown, chasing back-to-back wins not seen since Furyk’s 06-07 run. While this year’s course isn’t Hamilton, his form isn’t far off last season’s, with solid driving, approach, and putting numbers fueling a steady climb. Still hunting his first Top 5 of 2025, Mac’s improving putter might just seal the deal for a historic Canadian encore.
Niklas Norgaard
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/5/33/MC
RBC Canadian Open Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 33/34/MC
Insights: I struggle to find anything to be confident given his recent form. He’s lost strokes on APP in more events than he’s gained since March, and his short game has arguably been worse. Top 5 at Myrtle being the only event he was relatively competitive at, it’s hard to envision success against this field with better players than Myrtle. From a statistical perspective, T2G, GIR and P3 scoring have been his strongest attributes of late, but again, not much here to write home about.
Henrik Norlander
Odds: +15000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, ARD, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 59/MC/45/4
RBC Canadian Open Results: 59/72/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 12/13/13/22/34/45/53/53/60/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Norlander has popped up for 4 Top 20s this season (solo events), but he’s also missed the cut in 7 events. Prior to losing about a stroke on APP at Colonial, Norlander gained with his irons in 8 straight solo events with shot-link data, along with solid putting performances at the CJ Cup, Valero, Valspar, and Players. He’s 10th in the field in APP last 16 rounds and he’s been very good specifically from 150-200 yards (6th in the field) over his last 24 rounds — showing recent form with irons as well as more sustained form in what we feel is an important proximity bucket this week. Furthermore, he’s 23rd in the field in Par 4 scoring last 24 rounds. I’m not so sure he’s going to compete for a win, but a FRL or Top 20 bet with juicy odds could be a couple ways to go about betting Norlander if you’re looking for exposure. Temper your expectations ARD and the with the big stick, though.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +6600
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175, PROX, BOB 175200, P3
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/28/5/39
RBC Canadian Open Results: 21/25
Comp Results: 6/10/13/21/39/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Smalley leads Champ’s model thanks to a blazing start to 2025, with five Top 20s in his first seven events—but his recent form is a mixed bag, including five missed cuts in nine starts and a shaky putter. 80/1 this week, he’s flying under the radar, making him a sneaky DFS and match-up play. Don’t be shocked if he cracks the first page of the leaderboard—but only if he finds that early-season magic again.
Alejandro Tosti
Odds: +15000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 175200
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: MC/54/67/MC
RBC Canadian Open Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 10/10/12/67/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Tosti typically pops up at driver-heavy courses, often finding himself in the mix on longer courses with weaker fields. You could argue TPC Toronto may end up falling in that category. His APP game hasn’t been the best of late, but he’s shown an ability to show up out of no where and gain bigly with the irons like he did at Memorial Park and Valero earlier this year — gaining more than 8 strokes on APP in those 2 events combined. Biggest concerns are his ability to keep it in or around the fairway and knock down putts, but the price is certainly enticing given 2 Top 5 finishes this season (Houston, Corales) and Top 12 at Valero. I just wish we had SG stats for his 2nd-place finish at Corales, but we do know he gained almost 11 strokes total to the field in that event. DFS darling and sneaky longshot.