2025 RBC Canadian Open - Player Deep Dives

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
RBC Canadian Open Results: Finishes at Canadian Opens Only
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC San Antonio, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Scottsdale, Vidanta Vallarta, St. George’s

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Rory McIlroy
Odds: +450
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BOB 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175, APP 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 47/7/12/1
RBC Canadian Open Results: 1/1/4/9
Comp Results: 2/3/13/25/32/46/MC
Insights: Rory might be the betting favorite at the RBC Canadian Open, but let’s be real…that number is riding off reputation, not reality. Yes, he’s dominated this event in the past, but that was on completely different tracks with actual course history to lean on. This week? Clean slate, brand new venue, and Rory’s iron game is in shambles — losing nearly two strokes on Approach in back-to-back solo starts, including at Quail Hollow, where he’s basically the unofficial mayor. Since winning the Masters, Rory’s been sleepwalking through his swing, and while he has the talent to flip a switch, recent Sundays have shown he just doesn’t have that cold-blooded closer gene like Scottie. He nearly coughed up Augusta multiple times. Betting Rory at a near-Scottie price with a major looming? That’s a sucker’s play.

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25%: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 16/MC/60/54
RBC Canadian Open Results: 25 (Debut as Professional)
Comp Results: 14/MC/MC
Insights: What a confusing and weird season for big Swede. He has as many WDs and MCs as Top 20s, and most facets of his game have let him down outside of his Driver. Sammy was on him last week outright and FRL and at Quail as a FRL, but maybe he was a bit too early on Aberg — who showed signs of life in the final round of the Memorial. He gained nearly 6 strokes T2G on Sunday at Muirfield, highlighted by a spike round on APP and ARD. However, the price this week is difficult to digest. Aberg was 25+ at Jack’s Place and his FRL price at Quail was 30+. At less than 20/1, I want to see more consistency in Aberg’s all-around game before paying a price like this.

Corey Conners
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 200+, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/19/11/49
RBC Canadian Open Results: 6/6/20/80/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/14/15/17/18/25/26/28/35/38/45/50/74
Insights: Big Maple returns to his homeland this week after being on both Champ and Sammy’s cards last week in different fashion. Unfortunately for TBCH crew and patrons, CC couldn’t get out of his own way at the Memorial. It felt like he had a bogey or a double for every birdie or good par save he made all week long, but especially on the weekend when he lost almost 5 strokes on APP in Rounds 3 and 4 combined. Every time he started to make a run, he ripped off a couple bogeys or worse and plummeted down the leaderboard. Another guy that we like and have been tracking for some time, it was surprising to see him struggle so much which his irons considering he had gained with them in 8 straight events. While his price isn’t the most exciting this week, CC is one of the names you could consider at this course, so long that you can get at least 20/1. Fire up in DFS/OAD, as you may get depressed ownership coming off a bad week, on top of the fact that he’s the priciest Canadian on the board despite not ever finishing better than T6 in this event. For what it’s worth, a loose course comp for TPC Toronto is TPC San Antonio, which is interesting for CC — as he’s won at that course twice. Specifically notable on that course are the elevated greens with surrounding bunkers below green-level, and while CC hasn’t been good ARD lately, he has gained around those elevated greens in his last 3 trips to TPC SA. Take that however you may, but of the top 3 names on the board, I like CC the most at his price.

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