Saturday Round 3s are known as Moving Day in the golf community, but Moving would be an understatement for all the action that occurred today at Quail Hollow. It all started at 8AM EST when the horn blew as Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele were headed to the first tee to start their 3rd Rounds. Inclement/Dangerous weather distrubed the preceedings causing the tournament to shift tee times and pairings to split tees starting at 11AM on both the 1st and 10th tees. On course reporter asked Scottie Scheffler what he thought of his new pairing on Saturday, who was suppose to only play with Max Homa and he said something to the effect of, “Who is it?”. The other player happened to be Si Woo Kim, but showed just how much the players were reacting to the situation at hand over expecting the usual Saturday routines.
Once play began, the leaderboard got tight very quickly after overnight leader Jhonthan Vegas started bogey-bogey and soon it looked like a jumbled up race similar to that of the Preakness Stakes, but just as Journalism emerged from the pack at the favorite for the win, Scottie Scheffler played brillantly all day, highlighted by playing the final 5 holes in 5 under par including the Green Mile in 2 under in route to the low round of the day 6 under 65. Scottie heads into Sunday not only jail free but 3 shots clear of 2nd place held by Alex Noren who is playing in only his 2nd start of 2025 after an injury riddled 2024.
Danger zone for the rest of the field when Scottie is #1 in TG, OTT and APP. Add in Top 15% in Putting for the day and easy to see why he had the round of the day and now with over a 75% chance (-575 odds via Seminole HardRock) to hoist his first Wanamaker.
Trends for the Last 15 PGA Championships
Winners starting position on Sunday:
15/15 Top 7
14/15 Top 4
11/15 Top 2
9/15 Leader
Winners Shots Back into Sunday
14/15 4 or less
13/15 2 or less
Based on above, hard to argue Scottie’s -575 price tag by oddmakers; however, I will say it is GOLF and we have 18 holes left in a major that Scottie hasn’t claimed yet. DataGolf projects the winning score to be -11/-12 so I give the players at -5 or better with a punchers chance to pull the upset on Sunday. Now let’s see who is trending through 54 holes that might give Scottie a sweat on the back 9.
Alex Noren
Positive: 7 birdies on Saturday in which he called it his best scoring round. Can feed off the crowd and will relish the underdog role on Sunday with everything to gain and nothing to lose for a player with 10 European Wins that could be create some magic.
Outlook: Regression to be expected after the brillant Saturday round. Off the Tee, Around and On the Greens have been a rollercoaster this week. Only 2nd start in 2025 after injury in 2024 but looking for his 3rd Top 10 in a major and 1st Top 5.
Davis Riley
Positive: Top 30 arcross the SG board this week. Played last 11 holes in 5 under.
Outlook: Bottom 25% in field rank based on current season stats including: TG, OTT, APP, SCR, BA, P3, P4. Dream week or on borrowed time? Seeking first Top 10 in a major, best finish T13.
JT Poston (JTP)
Positive: North Carolina born JTP’s Approach and Putter have been warm all week. Incredible performance for a player with bottom 25% in field rank for Driving Distance and Approaches from 200+ this season.
Outlook: Game was trending leading in 23-18-11. Add in some local crowd mojo, Postman should top his best finish in major without much stress (Top 30 at 2024 Masters). He is a name I could see throwing his name into the ring on the back 9. Current odds: +2500.
Jhonattan Vegas
Positive: Lot of stress comes with sleeping on the lead after 18 and 36 holes. Hat tip to Vegas for battling back after the slow start. Unfortunately a water ball on 15 and bogey on 18 can’t help the momentum into Sunday.
Outlook: Putter has cooled down after a Top 5 performace on Thursday. Season stats say a drop in Approach and Around the Green are in store for Sunday, but hopefully he can hang on for his first Top 20 in a major this week.
Jon Rahm
Positive: For a while it looked like Rahm would be in the final pairing on Sunday but the inability to get up and down on 17 led to bogey and derailed his momentum after 3 straight birdies on 14-16. The only yellow flag from a SG perspective would be his Around the Green where he improved on Saturday but still sits 65th out of 74 players who made the cut.
Outlook: Rahmbo has put himself in good positions all year especially on LIV but has yet to close out a win in 2025 (currently 12 starts without a win). The back 9 Saturday shows he is close like he has been all year. IF he can get off to a quick start on Sunday, I like his chances versus trying to stage a big comeback on the back 9. Unfortunately, only played the front 9 in 2 under par this week.
Si Woo Kim
Positive: Led for a brief amount of time on Saturday but only 3 birds to go with 3 bogeys led to a 71 and a 6 shot difference to player partner Scheffler.
Outlook: Didn’t capitalize on his Top 20 APP and another Top 15 Putting performance. I worry his aggression will be impacted Off the Tee on Sunday and ranking 62 out of 74 OTT will lead to more chasing from SWK. Looking for first Top 10 in a major and first Top 15 finish since 2022 Open Championship.
Mattieu Pavon
Positive: Tough day for the Frenchman even with a Top 10 peformance Off the Tee on Saturday. Bottom of the field in APP, ARD and PUTT led to a 72 and 6 off Scottie’s lead.
Outlook: Rollercoaster stats this week to go with his 4 over on the Green Mile this week will lead to some sweaty palms for any bets made on Pavon for Sunday.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Positive: After calling his own game rubbish leading into the week, he was abe to manage his game around Quail on Saturday behind Top 25 in OTT and APP while he struggled ARD and PUTT.
Outlook: Only 1 under for the front 9 this week, tough to see Fitzy getting out of the blocks quick enough to be on Scottie’s radar. If he can get to the back 9 within a shot, he has shown the ability to close out major under pressure just ask Will Zalatoris at the Country Club.
Tony Finau
Positive: Solid SG on Saturday for Tony but a cold putter let him down while carding a 69. Game is starting to show signs on a potential win in the coming weeks but he will need the putter to cross the line eventually. With APP ranks of 4,12 and 21 the first 3 rounds, he should continue to get ample opportunites on Sunday.
Outlook: 3 under on the front 9 this week and he has yet to break 69 this week, tough to see a 65 in the cards for Big Tone BUT if the putter cooperates it isn’t totally out of the equation.
Bryson DeChambeau
Positive: For 15 holes, Bryson looked like the guy to beat or at least be right there step for step with Scottie for the title on Sunday. However, his poor approach play bit him hard on 16 and 17 leading to playing the final 3 in 3 over and finishing the day with a 2 under 69.
Outlook: Similar to Augusta, Bryson’s Approach numbers are a concern. 83rd R1, 74th R2, 52 out of 74 on Saturday losing a 1/2 stroke to the field. 3 under on the front 9 this week, I think he will need to match that on Sunday to have a shot on the back 9. He will get plenty of support from the crowd and a pairing with Tony Finau should help the vibes and I give a very good shot that one of those two will have a shot on the back 9 Sunday.
Keegan Bradley
Positive: Early finish on Saturday, Top 3 Tee to Green and playing the final 5 holes in 3 under gives Keegan a punchers chance on Sunday.
Outlook: EVEN on the front 9 this week won’t be enough to challenge Scottie. Putting continues to improve each round so a regression is to be expected and he although his scores are similar his SG stats show more of a rollercoaster of uncertainty.
Champ’s Projected Finish
Scottie -13
Rahm -10
Poston -10
Bryson - 9
Finau -8
Noren -6
SWK -5
Riley -5
Fitz -5
Keegan -4
Vegas -3
Pavon -3