2017-2024 PGA Championship Trends after R1
50% of the winners inside Top 10
50% of the winners Outside the Top 30
*Justin Thomas during 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow - 44th
63% of the winners trailed by 3 or more shots
*Justin Thomas during 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow trailed by 6 shots
Last 13 Tournaments Played at Quail Hollow
77% of the winners trailed by 3 or more shots
I am expecting more of the same conditions (Soft Fairways and Firm Greens) that we saw in Round 1, which in turn will continue to pay dividends for those with strong Tee to Green numbers.
Round 2 Buys (Players we expect to play above expectation in R2)
Tyrrell Hatton - 2 TG, 25 OTT, 12 APP, 18 ARD, 94 PUTT
Robert MacIntyre - 4 TG, 36 OTT, 9 APP, 19 ARD, 88 PUTT
Keegan Bradley - 5 TG, 12 OTT, 21 APP, 31 ARD, 75 PUTT
Aaron Rai - 7 TG, 41 OTT, 26 APP, 13 ARD, 29 PUTT
Harris English - 19 TG, 33 OTT, 27 APP, 44 ARD, 141 PUTT
J.J. Spaun - 24 TG, 28 OTT, 6 APP, 124 ARD, 113 PUTT
Jhonttan Vegas - 3 TG, 26 OTT, 19 APP, 11, ARD, 4 PUTT
Daniel Berger - 18 TG, 22 OTT, 11 APP, 107 ARD, 125 PUTT
*stats above are the players 2025 PGA Championship Round 1 SG Ranks
Round 2 Sells (Players we expect to play below expectation in R2)
Jordan Spieth - 131 TG, 107 OTT, 139 APP, 79 ARD, 113 PUTT
Tom Hoge - 125 TG, 139 OTT, 138 APP, 25 ARD, 96 PUTT
Sam Burns - 117 TG, 134 OT, 141 APP, 21 ARD, 35 PUTT
Cam Smith - 148 TG, 149 OTT, 151 APP, 92 ARD, 82 PUTT
Joe Highsmith - 125 TG, 100 OTT, 101 APP, 127 ARD, 23 PUTT
Adam Hadwin - 101 TG, 46 OTT, 118 APP, 111 ARD, 60 PUTT
Phil Mickelson - 134 TG, 153 OTT, 111 APP, 53 ARD, 152 PUTT
Nick Dunlap - 137 TG, 150 OTT, 105 APP, 93 ARD, 134 PUTT
*stats above are the players 2025 PGA Championship Round 1 SG Ranks
Insights:
I am projecting the leader to be around -10 after Fridays 2nd Round. Best guess Vegas (9:01 AM R2) followed by Aaron Rai (7:55AM R2) and Tyrrell Hatton (7:38 AM R2). Keep in mind it would take a massive effort from a player sitting in -2 (Scottie Scheffler 1:47 PM R2) or further so I would hold on to your cash for now. After tomorrow’s round, I would circle names in the -6/-7 area that could go low over the weekend. Something to note: Justin Thomas during the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow was 6 back after R1 and 5 back after 36 holes.
R2 Bets
Champ
Harris English +150 > Thomas Detry / Michael Kim - 1.5u
Parlay +1865 (boosted 10% to +2051) - 0.50u
Keith Mitchell -170 > Adam Hadwin / Bob Sowards
Aaron Rai +120 > Joe Highsmith / Cameron Young
Daniel Berger +125 > Russell Henley / Sergio Garcia
Harris English +150 > Thomas Detry / Michael Kim
Sammy
J.J. Spaun +160 (boosted to +200) > Byeong Hun An / Niklas Norgaard - 1u
Daniel Berger +135 > Russell Henley / Sergio Garcia - 1.5u
Xander Schauffele Under 70.5 -125 - 2.5u
DFS Showdown Player Pool:
Hatton, Scott, Collin, Ludvig, Bryson, Berger, Harman, Spaun, Burmester, English, Hall, Fleetwood, Rahm, Conners, Schauffele, Greyersman, Novak, Bradley