Legend:
Odds - Offshore as of 5/11 7PM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Quail Results: Finishes at Quail Hollow Only
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Valhalla, Doral, Corales, Old White, Congaree, Chapultepec, Muirfield Village
PGA Champ Results: Finishes at PGA Championship Only
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +450 - Tied Favorite with Rory
Stats: 1st by 12 points, 16 over 3rd
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 5: TG, OTT, APP, PROX, BS, SCR, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, 4/4 APP (massive gains last 2), 1/4 ARD, 4/4 PUTT
FORM: 1/8/4/2
Quail Results: DEBUT (0-3-1 Presidents Cup)
Comp Results: 7/8/26/45
PGA Champ Results: 2/4/8/8
Insights: Debut at Quail, known for skipping this week in schedule. 0-3-1 Presidents Cup Record at Quail back in 2022. Great results with 4 Top 10s and a 2nd at PGA Championships. With Quail being a track that has been around forever, plenty of players have much more familiarity with the course, which is the one weakness I see for Scottie this week. Obviously in great form and the win in his last start could be a sign of things to come, but due to odds and perhaps not a strong liking to Quail, I won't be as exposed to Scottie as most this week. I like his chances more at the US Open at Oakmont over this week if I had to forecast his chances out.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +450 - Tied Favorite with Scottie
Stats: 2nd Behind Scottie, 4 points ahead of 3rd, 10 ahead of 4th.
Rank: Top 75% across exclude BOB 200+, Top 5: TG, OTT, DD, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, 4/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 2/4 PUTT
FORM: 7/1/3/25
Quail Results: 1/1/1/1/2/4 (13 last 24 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/3/4/5/5
PGA Champ Results: 1/1/3/3/7
Insights: 3 wins in 9 2025 starts. 4 time winner at Quail Hollow. Top Comp course for me this is week: Valhalla (2014 PGA Winner). Twice a PGA Champ winner. Looking for back to back majors to start 2025 and when people liked him to win a major this year, most said this would be he best chance and you can easily see why.
Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +1200
Rank: Top 12 OTT, T2G, BOB, BA, DD, ACC, GIR, SCR; Outside top 70 APP, outside top 45 P
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, P 4/4
Form: 1/2/5/5
Quail Results: 9/4/33/MC
Comp Results: 5/15/2/7/1/MC/18/MC/2/MC
PGA Champ Results: 2/4/38/4/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Bryson has been in as good of form as anyone right now (SG stats similarly strong whether raw or weighted) despite apparently not feeling completely confident in his full game. Finally getting back into the winner’s circle for the first time since the 2024 US Open, Bryson secured the victory at LIV Korea gaining more than 13 strokes T2G to the field. Approach stats have been a roller coaster at best of late, losing 2+ strokes in 3 of last 7, while gaining more than 2 in just 2 of those 7. Has the required distance to thrive at Quail, as well as a tidy short-game, but losing 4+ strokes on APP at Augusta hard to be ignored. Last time he played at Quail (2021), he lost more than 5 strokes on APP. I understand the hype surrounding Bryson, but I don’t see a win here when comparing to the others around him at the top of the board — unless he has a spike week with his irons. Recent history says that’s a tough ask, as he just spiked last week in his win and has not gained 1.5 or more strokes with irons in consecutive events since March 2024.
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2000 (4th Lowest)
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, PUTT, Top 50: OTT, DD, 200+, PROX, BOB
Rank: Top 25%: OTT, DD, 200+, PROX, BOB 175200. Bottom 25%: APP, GIR, PUTT, BOB 200+, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 60/54/7/MC
Quail Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5/MC
PGA Champ Results: MC (72-70)
Insights: Sweed is putting up lackluster strokes gained these days, which is honestly putting it lightly. Maybe he is waiting to strike in the majors, but his last 2 starts are more in line with his back to back missed cuts at Valero and Players instead of the 7th at Augusta and 1st at Genesis. The talent should not be ignored and maybe those running stats will exclude Sweed this week and that would be risky on a course that does give importance to the driver. When he has it working, he is top 5 in this field without a doubt. I would watch his popularity this week and gauge respectively.
Daniel Berger
Odds: +10000
Stats: Top 125 exclude 17200, BOB 175200, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude 175200, BOB 175200, P3, Top 20: TG, OTT, APP, 200+, PROX, BS, ARD, SCR, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/3/21/30
Quail Results: 17/28/54/55/MC (3 last 10 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 5/14/16/50/67
PGA Champ Results: 12/13/71/73/75
Insights: Has not played Quail since 2019 and his best finish T17 was way back in 2016. Current form has alot of people expecting DB to cross the finish line in first very soon and before the end of the 2025 season. This week though, I don't see many people being on him. Approach is warm and elite gains at Heritage and the Masters but his putter didn't follow suit and left him in T3 and T21 positions. This will only be the 3rd major he has played in since 2022 but both were nice T21 finishes at the 2024 US Open and this year's Masters. If I saw better results and starts at Quail, I may be able to be talked into DFS side of things. I would keep an eye on his popularity this week and either pivot away if popular or roll the dice and play DB if everyone is off. My forecast has him contending next week at Colonial and Travelers next and I concur, he wins before the end of 2025.
Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 50: APP, 200+, PROX, PUTT, BOB, P3, P4. Outside Top 125: DD, ARD, SCR, BA, P5
Rank: Top 25%: 200+, PUTT, BOB, P3, P4. Bottom 25%: DD, ARD, SCR, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 46/MC/42/42
Quail Results: 42/43/MC (2 last 10 in 60s)
Comp Results: 22/24/MC/MC
PGA Champ Results: MC
Insights: A North Carolinian himself, Smoke with the rollercoaster of all rollercoaster stats this week. Massive gains with the irons in 2 of his last 3 to go with 2 massive losses Around and On the Greens. Off the tee was solid but the last 3 he has lost around half a stroke per tournament. Handful of rounds around Quail only led to 2 in the 60s and not much comp courses or major history to give us a better indication of the week in store for Smoke. Price is nice and maybe you can find a decent matchup bet with the hope he levels out or you can get him on the round that he puts it together, especially given his familiarity with course layout and agronomy in this region. Tough sledding either way and I will be on sideline this week in hopes there are better indicators of contending form for the 2nd half of the schedule.
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude 200+, SCR, PUTT, BOB 175200, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude 200+, PUTT, P3, Top 25%: TG, OTT, APP, 175200, PROX, BS, ARD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 30/18/MC/47
Quail Results: 18/21/33/35/76 (4 last 21 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 4/8/8/10/13/18/21/23/24
PGA Champ Results: 1/3/17/18/19/29/29
Insights: 14th anniversary of his PGA Champ back in 2011. Does have 2 Top 20s in this major in his last 4 starts, so could pop this week. Popular name at Truist, but a 30th won’t do much for backers. Strong OTT and APP numbers along with a resurgance around the greens could see Keegs in his favorite front page of the leaderboard on a Thursday. 66 low round at Quail will need to be a bit better if he is going to cash on Thursday; however, a 3ball bet and possible matchup could be in the cards this week.
Dean Burmester
Odds: +17500
Rank: Top 10 APP, T2G, BOB, DD; Outside top 100 P, ACC
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, P 2/4
Form: 13/26/14/29
Quail Results: Debut
Comp Results: 14/37/12/1/5/7/30
PGA Champ Results: 12/54/MC/59
Insights: Bomber that has excelled with irons this year, but can be a bit wayward OTT when it comes to missing fairways, and he’s not the best in the short game department. Did not play in the Masters, but has top 20 finishes in 3 of last 5 Major appearances. Good Drives % will be tested with his inaccuracy off the tee. Top 20 success at comp courses make me think a juicy top 20 bet could be the move, but I would consider that his ceiling this week without course history to review. Could be a sneaky add for cheap to DFS lineups as well.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +4000 (10th lowest)
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR, P3
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 10: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/13/36/33
Quail Results: 21/29/33/MC (3 last 14 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/4/6/7/30/30/32
PGA Champ Results: 3/9/23/27/33/43
Insights: Cantlay enjoyed last week's move up to Philly where he has had plenty of success in the Northeast of the US. Unfortunately, this week is back at Quail where he has yet to have a Top 20 finish. In his 4 starts at Quail, he has yet to gain with his irons while we see nice spikes in his other strokes gained metrics. Compare that to his current run of form, Cantlay has gained on an elite level Off the Tee and Approach which struggling around and on the greens this season but still been able to have 0 MC and 5 Top 20 finishes. The question with PC will always be how can he perform on the major stage. Many alike have been let down by PC over the years, a player that a lot of people expected to have a major at this point in his career. This week could be sneaky play due to his form but plenty will go elsewhere due to his not great course history and major championship results even though he does have 3 Top 10s in his last 8 major starts including at T3 at the US Open last year.
Corey Conners
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 100 exclude Driving Distance and P5 Scoring
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD, Top 25%: TG, OTT, GIR, PROX, BS, SCR, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 11/49/8/18
Quail Results: 8/13/42/43 (6 last 16 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 13/13/20/22/23/26/30
PGA Champ Results: 12/17/26/64
Insights: CC looking to continue his hot run in the majors (8-25-9) and fresh off a 66-67 weekend at the Truist, there is no reason he can't keep it going. The 0-4 record at the President Cup here is a warning sign but I see more green than red on CC's profile this week. I think a Top 20 is within reach and possible FRL to go with Top Canadian this week.
Bud Cauley
Odds: +20000
Stats: 6th non filtered, Top 100 across exclude 200+
Rank: Top 75% exclude 200+, Top 20: TG APP, 175200, PROX, SCR, PUTT, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4 PUTT 5/5
FORM: 28/32/5/4
Quail Results: 24/33/38/38/67 (4 last 12 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 9/25/34/38/44
PGA Champ Results: 33*/37/MC
Insights: Racking up the stats since March with his fire form; however, the irons and around green are leaking some oil. His performance at Valspar, another long tree-lined track, gives me hope that he can play well this week. However, I worry about distance and his around the green game, so a Top 40 finish is probably where I would tag him, which is in line with his performances at major championships: 37/33/MC/32/MC/63 albeit having not played in one since 2020 PGA Championship. Dart throw DFS play but I think there are much more appealing options honestly.
Tyrell Hatton
Odds: +4500
Rank: Outside top 30 OTT, BOB, ACC; Inside top 25 APP, T2G, BA, GIR, SCR
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, P 1/4
Form: 13/5/14/33
Quail Results: 3/42/MC
Comp Results: 33/25/63/4/12/13/2/6/33/19
PGA Champ Results: 63/15/13/38/MC/48/10/MC/10/25
Insights: Hatton is very good with his irons, gaining on APP to the field in 16 of his last 17 events. However, he is erratic OTT, losing strokes in that category in 6 of his last 8. The putter has also been cold with losses of at least 1.4 strokes on the greens in 3 of his last 4. Lost nearly 2.5 strokes on the greens at Augusta, but was otherwise solid there. No higher finish than 9th in any major since the 2019 Open Championship at Portrush - the home of this year’s Open. Will be keeping an eye on him leading up to that event, but no play on Hatton for me this week.
Russell Henley
Odds: +7000 (21st lowest)
Stats: Top 125 exclude Driving Distance and Off The Tee Average
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD and OTT AVG, Top 20: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, ARD, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 46/8/MC/30
Quail Results: 10/43/71/72 (2 last 16 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 6/7/16/23/27/28
PGA Champ Results: 12/22/23/37/50
Insights: 10 Top 20s in majors, however only 1 at the PGA Champ and that was back in 2015. Similar to Sepp, I like Russ on a shorter golf course over the 7400+ that Quail Hollow will be have to be won on this week. Approach game continues to gain steadily against the field but the putter has cooled off in his last 4 only gaining twice in that span. I worry about his Off the Tee game the most this week, I expect a Top 40 finish for Russ but anything more would be above expectation on my side.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, PUTT, BA
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCr, PUTT, BA, P4; Top 25%: APP, 175200, 200+, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, P 3/4
Form: 54/13/21/1
Quail Results: 24/43/3
Comp Results: 15/3/1/21/51/47/48/3/10
PGA Champ Results: 3/2/41/30/33
Insights: Big Dick Vik has shriveled up at bit of late, at least OTT, but APP game has been lethal with 7 straight gains, and short game has been at least serviceable in 2 of last 3. Gained almost 6 strokes on APP and more than 7 strokes on the greens at Valspar, which highlights his upside if he can keep it in the fairway (nearly 2 strokes gained OTT). With irons so dialed, especially long irons of late, think there is a path to victory here for Hovland, but it’s going to require a spike week on the greens and gains with the driver all while the irons stay hot. That may be a big ask for a golfer that lacks event-to-event consistency. For reference, Vik MC’d in 4 of 5 events leading into Valspar, and then randomly spiked for a win. Certainly has the talent to compete with the best of the best, but curious about how much he would actually trust his game with Sunday spotlight against someone like Rory.
Sungjae Im
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 125 exclude DD, APP, 175200, PROX, P3, Top 50: OTT, ARD, PUTT, BOB, P4, P5
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD, APP, GIR, 175200, PROX, P3. Top 25%: TOTT, ARD, PUTT, BOB, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 23/33/MC/11
Quail Results: 4/8/31/MC (8 last 14 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 7/8/10/19/34/35
PGA Champ Results: 17/42/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: hIM loves playing in North Carolina with great starts at Quail and Sedgefield. 2-2-1 President Cup record shows his confidence around Quail and 8 of his 14 rounds in 60s is one of the best in the field this week. Tough to gauge how close he is to contending based strictly on looking at his strokes gained metrics. Not sure what to make of his Korean tour start where he missed the cut 3 starts ago. Last 2 major starts read 5-7, but prior he was on a 5 missed cuts in 6 starts streak. Top Asian and a Top 20 could be in the cards along with a matchup bet or 3ball. Win possible but not probable.
Dustin Johnson
Odds: +12500
Rank: Outside top 85 APP, P, T2G, BA, SCR; Top 25 OTT, BOB, DD, DA
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, P 2/4
Form: 34/7/MC/27
Quail Results: 13/MC/29/MC
Comp Results: 27/33/43/24/4/32/1/10/MC/48
PGA Champ Results: 43/55/MC/MC/2/2/27/13/MC/7
Insights: The idea of DJ returning to form is fun to think about for a couple seconds, but there is nothing in his profile to indicate he is close to winning a Major right now. Driver is his biggest attribute, but the short game has been pretty bad.
Si Woo Kim
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 125 exclude DD, PUTT, P3
Ranks: Top 75% exclude DD, PUTT, BOB175200, P3, Top 25%: TG, OTT175200, APP AVG, ARD, BOB, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, P 1/4
Form: 17/15/8/MC
Quail Results: 16/43/WD/MC
Comp Results: 15/MC/4/52/13/9/18/64/41/29
PGA Champ Results: MC/MC/60/MC/13/MC/MC/WD/MC
Insights: Si WOOOO has found some form of late with 3 top 20s in last 3 non-team events, but has never really been a performer in Majors, especially in PGA Champs. More missed cuts than not in last 10 years in his specific major. He can’t bomb it, and he certainly can’t putt, so he doesn’t really fit the mold we’re looking for this week.
Jake Knapp
Odds: +35000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD
Rank: Top 75% exclude OTT, PROX, ARD; Top 25%: DD, 200+, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 0/4, P 2/4
Form: 39/MC/27/MC
Quail Results: 58
Comp Results: MC/MC
PGA Champ Results: MC
Insights: Knapp is a bomber and can score in bunches, but he has had very limited success in Majors (3 MC and a 55 in 4 starts). I see the vision from a player profile perspective, but there’s not enough sustained success against top-level talent for me to get excited about a long shot bet on him.
Brooks Koepka
Odds: +4500
Rank: Outside Top 50 in OTT, APP, P, ACC, SCR. No higher than 22nd in any stat in this field (22nd, DD)
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, P 1/4
Form: 17/30/MC/18
Quail Results: 42/13
Comp Results: 18/1/26/45/10/38/3/62/MC/27
PGA Champ Results: 26/1/55/2/29/1/1/13/4/5
Insights: The putter is just crushing him, and Brooks has always been one to check out mentally if his game isn’t up to standard after 1-2 rounds. We saw it at Augusta this year, where he completely ejected on the last 2 holes — shooting 5 strokes over par combined. Since then, has finished 30th and 17th on LIV. Are we sure he has a winner’s mentality right now? Can he putt? PGA Champ is historically an event that very much suits his game, but the recent form is ugly and his Quail history is lacking. Pass/fade for me.
Min Woo Lee
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 100 excldue APP, 175200, 200+, P5
Rank: Top 25%: DD, ARD, PUTT, Bottom 25%: APP, APP 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 51/61/49/1
Quail Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
PGA Champ Results: 18/26/MC
Insights: Perhaps still on cloud 9 after his 1st PGA Tour win at Memorial Park 4 starts ago. Putter cooled off and so have the results when looking at the stats. OTT pretty much even, APP lost in 3 of the last 5, Around continues to his strongest strength and putter was due for some regression. Top 25 results at PGA Champ are mostly on the legs of a hot putter which is a tough buy in this game. Bottom 25% in field in approach and Par 5 scoring is a concern and I don't see MWL being a name on the first page this weekend.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude DD and PUTT
Ranks: Top 75% exclude PUTT, Top 25%: TG, OTT, GIR, BS, BA
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, P 1/4
Form: 34/66/MC/9
Quail Results: Debut
Comp Results: 8/42
PGA Champ Results: 8/MC/77/49/66
Insights: Bobby had great form OTT early in the season, but has lost strokes or gained less than 1 stroke to the field OTT in 3 of last 4 measured events. Lacks requisite distance and putting to truly compete for a win here. Lost on the greens in 3 of last 3 and his irons haven’t been any better, losing close to 5 strokes on approach combined in the last 3 measured events. Without course history or much comp history to illustrate a ceiling, I’m passing on Bobby Lad this week.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +4500 (14th lowest)
Stats: 7th non filtered, Top 125 across
Rank: Top 75% across, top 20: TG, 175200, 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, 0/4 PUTT
FORM: 17/21/MC/MC
Quail Results: 5/11/20/31/38 (hasnt played since 2019, 3 last 11 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/8/13/16/22
PGA Champ Results: 4/5/16/19/22/23 (recent finishes: 35/29/60)
Insights: You knew it wouldn't be easy to analyze Hideki. Hasn't played here since 2019, not that many starts in Carolinas, and only 2 starts since The Masters. 64 in 2017 PGA Champ at Quail says he has the game that should suit. Would consider a FRL bet but only 2 rounds in last 16 in PGA Championships will have me on the sidelines.
Keith Mitchell
Odds: +25000
Stats: Top 100 exclude 200+ ARD
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 20: OT, DD, GIR, BS, BOB, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/18/2/12
Quail Results: 3/8/34/59 (8 last 16 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 2/2/18/22/40/48
PGA Champ Results: 34/43/58
Insights: Playing in his first major since the 2024 PGA Championship, first round namesay Killa Keith should be a name that provides intrigue to the patrons this week. 61 on Thursday at Truist adds to his low Round 1 scores this year including 64 Corales, 64 Valero, 67 Valspar, 64 Cognizant. Keith's long enough and can score at Quail (50% in 60s here is one of the best) however the question will be the other 54 holes. The mental game is where Keith eyes improvement and once that aligns as well as hit OTT and APP numbers then he will indeed get back into the winners circle. Will that be this week? PGA Championship is known as the lesser of the majors and his 2 Top 10 finishes here along with a couple 2nds at comp courses raise intrigue. Stranger things have come to light but dont be fooled, he will be on plenty of FRL slips and DFS this week, question is how many will hold an outright on Keith?
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2200 (7TH Lowest)
Stats: 4th non filtered, outstide Top 150 in Driving Distance
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD, Top 10: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, BOB, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, 4/4 APP, 1/4 ARD, 0/4 PUTT
FORM: 17/MC/54/14
Quail Results: 16/MC (1 last 6 rounds in the 60s)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/4\
PGA Champ Results: 1/4/8/26/55
Insights: Former PGA Champ is still searching for that first win since October 2023. Up and down results at Wells with his new caddie on board. Approach is on an elite level, Off the tee could be better, when contending he usually in the +.80 to +1 range, 2 of the last 3 more in +0.50 range. The weakness that he needs to tighten up is the around and putter game. In 2 starts at Quail, +.9 and -2.4 putting. Good luck if expecting him on the positive this week after 4 straight in negative category. Around green game will be challenged this week and his last 3 starts have me worried he will be bleeding strokes there on the weekend. I like Collin better at a track in a couple weeks where not only has he won but also battled head to head with Scottie last year in a 2nd place finish, Muirfield Village.
Joaquin Niemann
Odds: +3500
Rank: Top 10 in OTT, 2G, BOB, BA, DD, GIR, SCR; Top 30 APP, DA; Outside Top 50 Putting
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, P 3/4
Form: 20/1/29/33
Quail Results: 18/38/MC
Comp Results: 33/15/39/9/3/23/9/3/MC/MC
PGA Champ Results: 39/MC/23/30/MC/MC/71
Insights: Niemann has been a sensation on LIV this year, winning Mexico City, Singapore, and Adelaide all since February - on top of a win at the Saudi International in December. This biggest and loudest issue with his profile is his glaring lack of Major success. Until we see it, it’s had to trust Jacko on the biggest stages with the best players. For what it’s worth, his raw shots gained metrics are much better than his weighted shots gained metrics, which infers that he is beating up on easier courses with weaker fields relative to those on other tours.
Taylor Pendrith
Odds: +17500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, PUTT
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCR, PUTT, Top 25%: OTT, DD, GIR, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, P 1/4
Form: 65/MC/42/MC
Quail Results: 10/MC
Comp Results: 33/MC/11/60/70/34
PGA Champ Results: MC/29
Insights: In theory, TP has the distance and APP game to compete at Quail, as shown by a T10 last year at Wells, but the game is far from complete right now. Doesn’t have much to offer in the short game despite gains OTT in all but 2 events this calendar year. Iron game is usually very good, especially long irons, but massive losses at Truist and more than -1 lost at Augusta don’t instill much confidence. 3 Top 10s, 2 of which at longer courses (Torrey, Memorial Park) offer some hope, but just have to think short game is going to hold him back even with a spike APP week. Gained more than 3.5 strokes on the greens last year here, but putting form was in a much better place leading in (was coming in off win at CJ Cup).
Jon Rahm
Odds: +2000
Rank: Top 15 in OTT, T2G, BOB, BA, DD, ACC, GIR; SCR, APP, PUTT outside top 25 but inside top 55
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, P 3/4
Form: 7/4/14/9
Quail Results: MC/58
Comp Results: 9/2/MC/4/16/4/10/WD/1/27
PGA Champ Results: MC/50/48/8/13/MC/4/58
Insights: A perennial top 10 finisher on LIV of late, Jon hasn’t been able to put it all together in Majors since 2023. All around game seems to be there on paper, but inconsistent irons may be holding him back. Lost at least 1.2 strokes on APP in 2 of last 3 Majors, and PGA Championship success is nonexistent since top 10 finish at Kiawah in 2021. Pass at this number in the betting market, while acknowledging he could spike for a win at any event given his talent level compared to the rest of the field. Could be a nice pivot DFS play once ownership projections stabilize throughout the week.
Patrick Reed
Odds: +9000
Rank: Outside top 50 OTT, BOB, DD, ACC, GIR; Top 10 BA, SCR
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, P 3/4
Form: 4/17/3/7
Quail Results: 6/28/8/2/28/58/32/32
Comp Results: 7/15/53/9/36/1/53/5/10/39
PGA Champ Results: 53/18/34/17/13/MC/MC/2/13/30
Insights: Back-doored a top 3 finish at Augusta with a hole out eagle late on Sunday, but has been playing good golf all around for the last month and a half. Lost 2 strokes on APP at LIV Korea, but that was the first irons loss since Adelaide in mid-February. Short game has been on point of late. Biggest concern is lack of distance and periodic lapses with the driver, as shown by OTT losses in 7 of 11 events this calendar year (with shot tracker), but seems to have found something in that department of late given his gains in 3 of last 4. Has very good course history here, including a 2nd place finish at the 2017 PGA Championship at this very course. That week, he gained nearly 10 strokes T2G and more than 4.5 strokes on the greens. Given all around form and past course success, Reed is an interesting long shot consideration in an event that doesn’t typically have too many long shot winners. At the very least, he profiles as a great Top 20 bet and potentially a Top LIV prop bet.
Xander Schauffele
Odds: +2000 (4TH lowest)
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, ARD, SCR, PUTT, P4, Top 50: APP, GIR, 175200, 200+, PROX, P3, P5
Rank: Top 75% xclude OTT, ARD, SCR< PUTT, P4, Top 25%: DD, APP, 175200, 200+, BOB 175200
SG Gains: 1/4 OTT, 4/4 APP, 4/4 ARD, 2/4 PUTT
FORM: 11/18/8/12
Quail Results: 2/2/14/72 (6 last 18 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 1/1/8/11/13/14/14/14/14/18/18
PGA Champ Results: 1/10/13/16/18/35
Insights: Defending PGA Champ fresh off 4 rounds in the 60s at Truist and 8 rounds in the 60s in his last 12 rounds overall. Xander getting reps and shaking off any injury concerns is a great sight for heading into the 2nd half of the season. No reason to think he won't continue his great form in the majors: 8/1/7/1/8 in his last 5.
Alex Smalley
Odds: N/A - 1st Alternate
Stats: Top 125 exclude BOB 175200
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 175200, Top 20: TG, OTT, BS, ARD, SCR, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 5/39/MC/63
Quail Results: 18 (74-65-68-71)
Comp Results: 2/6/14/22/52/63
PGA Champ Results: 23/MC (1 of 6 rounds in 60s)
Insights: Smalley is a stats junkie who is still looking to close out his first win. He had a great start on Sunday -4 thru 7 but played level par the rest of the way in route to a T5 and 2 strokes behind the winner. Smalley has better than average ball striking skills, however, in clutch time, the putter has a way of letting him down. 2025 is his 4th year on tour and each year has a handful of tournaments where he finishes inside the top 5, but has yet to show the ability to get over the hump. We would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find his last victory. Playing in his 4th major championship this week on a course where he has finished Top 20 including a 65, I would roster Smalley in DFS without issue. He could poke his head around the top of the leaderboard after 36, but I would hold expectations for the weekend. Top 40 finish is a good result this week, anything more I would consider gravy. Colonial, Canadian Open and John Deere he could be a factor but only recommend playing if the odds match up for a player looking for his first win no matter what the stats suggest.
Jordan Spieth
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100 exclude 175200, BOB 175200, P3
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD, Top 25%: TG, OTT, GIR, PROX, BS, SCR, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 34/4/18/14
Quail Results: 28/29/32/MC (1 last 14 in 60s)
Comp Results: 3/5/7/12/13/13/14/18/18/19
PGA Champ Results: 2/3/12/13/28/29/30 (best results 2015-2019)
Insights: Jordan looking to capture the elusive grand slam this week, but will need to overcome some poor form in his last start last week. EVEN Off the Tee, but losing 4 strokes on Approach (67 out of 70 players) has me a bit concerned. Around Green and Putting were okay, but I expected more, especially with his incoming prior form of 4-18-14-12. Only 1 round in the 60s in his 14 rounds around Quail doesn’t give much me hope for a quick turnaround this week. I will root for him on Sunday if he is near the top but he won't get my money this week at 45.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +5000 (16th lowest)
Stats: 3rd non filtered, Outside Top 125 Driving Distance
Rank: Top 75% exclude DD, Top 10: TG, APP, GIR, 175200, PROX, BOB, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: 3/4 OTT, 4/4 APP, 1/4 ARD, 1/4 PUTT
FORM: 1/12/13/MC
Quail Results: 8/54/MC/MC (3 last 12 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 5/9/14/16/26
PGA Champ Results: 7/66/78/MC
Insights: Distance is a concern for Sepp this week compared to Truist, where he feasted on the shorter design. DFS cornerstone due to stability but not the type of track I would pencil Sepp in for a top 10 finish. 22 and 2 in his last 2 Open Championship starts have me liking his chances a lot more at Royal Portrush in July. Seeing odds around 80/1 that is a more than fair price on a top form guy.
Justin Thomas
Odds: +2000 (4th lowest)
Stats: Top 125 across, Top 10: TG, APP, BOB, P4
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 15: TG, APP, ARD, PUTT, BOB, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/1/36/2
Quail Results: 1/7/14/21/21/26 (5 last 16 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 2/2/4/5/6/8/8/9/18
PGA Champ Results: 1/1/6/8/18
Insights: In his win at Quail for his 1st of 2 PGA Champ victories, JT gained early 2 strokes with the putter and over a stroke on approach, almost 1 off the tee and half a stroke around the greens. Based on his current form, Approach: check, Around Green check, Putt check, however the weakness in JT's game this season is the driver and his rollercoaster of results with it prove that he is still fighting it. On a track like Quail, he won't be able to hide it like he was able to do at Heritage and Truist in his last starts. If he can find the driver then he should be considered one of the favorites this week on a track that fits his eye and has the results to back it up. Big IF but big chance if he can. Odds a little short but after his win, but considering his current stretch, it is fair albeit a bit tight for a player with a key weakness this week.
Davis Thompson
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 125 exclude 200+, PUTT, Top 50: TG, OTT, GIR, BS, ARD, BOB, P5
Rank: Top 75 exclude 200+, PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, 2/4 PUTT
FORM: 23/27/46/27
Quail Results: MC (69-74)
Comp Results: 18/27/35/56
PGA Champ Results: MC
Insights: Sneakily his 7th career major this week and looking to improve on his MC in the 2023 PGA Champ after a 77-69. DT can mash it off the tee but lately he has been gaining more around and on the greens versus the tee box. He has the length to compete at Quail but he will need to have the total driving to stay in touch of the cut and a top 40 finish. Looking at his latest form, it is a rollercoaster ride across the strokes gained metrics. He is actually gaining on the field at shorter tracks but losing when he gets a chance to unleash the driver. His approach gain is elite outside of his start at Truist and Heritage (last 2 starts unfortunately). His around the green is mostly green with gainining in 8 last 11, however the putter is on the other side of the equation gaining in 5 last 11. Minimum history around Quail to go with 1 Top 20 on Comps has me putting DT on bench this week, but do expect him to pop on the first page of the leaderboard a few more times before the end of 2025.
LISTEN TO US LIVE FROM FERG’S SPORTS BAR AND GRILLE IN DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG OR ON RADIOSTPETE.COM UNDER THE FLORIDA SPORTS STREAM CHANNEL EACH AND EVERY TUESDAY FROM 7:00 PM EST to 8:00 PM EST.
