Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Open Results: Finishes at The Open Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Caves Valley Golf Club, Liberty National Golf Club, PGA National Golf Club and Memorial Park Golf Course
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude BOB 125150 (71), BOB 150175 (60)
Rank: Top 25!!! exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/6/7/1
Open Results: 7/8/21/23
Comp Results: 2/2/2/9/22/32/43
Insights: Oh no, absolutely time to fade Scottie. I mean, what kind of loser finishes top 10 in ten straight starts with three wins, six top 5s, and gains over 1.5 strokes on approach like it's a casual walk in the park? And sure, he looked a little annoyed on the greens—clearly a red flag for someone only managing to dominate the field every single week. Not to mention that pesky major record this year: 4th, 1st, 7th—yikes, better steer clear of that train wreck. And God forbid he gives a slightly reflective interview about life—definitely signals career collapse. If he’s your only bet this week, you must really hate money.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +750
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (156), PROX (135), BOB 150175 (121)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/6/19/MC
Open Results: 1/2/3/3/4/5/6/25/42/46/47/60/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/6/13/19/21/40/43/59/70/WD/MC/MC
Insights: Ah sure now, Rory’s back is he? The putter’s finally decided to join the party—’bout time! He rolls it like that again on home soil, we might just see the man lift another jug and send the locals into a frenzy. That missed cut in 2019? He’s got the bit between his teeth now, and with the wind in his favor and a wee bit of vengeance in the tank, you wouldn’t bet against the pride of Holywood bringing it home. Clubhouse favorite? Too right. Let the roar echo across the links—Rory’s ready.
Jon Rahm
Odds: +1200
Rank: Top 35 T2G, APP, OTT, PUTT, TD, 3PA; Outside Top 85 PROX, RPROX, SCR, BOB, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARG 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 2/11/7/8
Open Results: 7/2/34/3/11/MC/44/59
Comp Results: 3/3/9
Insights: Rhambo’s resume speaks for itself. He has played 13 LIV events + Majors this season and has finished in the Top 10 in all but 2 of them (LIV Dallas 11th, Masters 14th). One of the elite ball-strikers in the world, Rahm should continue his success at the Open this week. He has 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts at the Open, and he finished 11th at Portrush in 2019. He is one of the best links players in the field over the last 3 years, as well as Top 15 in windy conditions and wet conditions. If betting a golfer under 10/1 isn’t your jam, Rahm at around 12/1 is a great place to start your card. He also qualifies as a DFS cornerstone this week. With 4 straight Top 15 finishes in Majors dating back to Royal Troon last year, expect Rahm to be on the front page of the leaderboard when you turn on Sunday’s round.
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Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR (120), BOB 150175 (121), P3 (124)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 32/12/MC/12
Open Results: 8/12/25/33/41/MC
Comp Results: 1/11/12
Insights: If you could just delete PC’s allergy to trophies and his Open résumé like a bad text to your ex, he’d be everyone’s darling this week. But alas, we live in reality—and reality says the man’s putter has been colder than a links breeze in November. Losing strokes on the greens in 3 straight and 6 of his last 10? Not ideal prep for dodgy bounces and 40-foot par saves. Still, the rest of the toolbox isn’t broken, and if ball-striking alone could win majors, he'd already have a jug (or two). No rounds in the 60s across 8 major rounds this year? That’s not a stat, that’s a cry for help. But hey, if you’re feeling brave, grab the clothespin, pinch the nose, and fire him into your DFS lineups—just don’t say we didn’t warn you when he shoots a Friday 73 with 34 putts and a thousand-yard stare.
Corey Conners
Odds: +7500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (119)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/WD/27/25
Open Results: 15/25/28/52/MC
Comp Results: 8/21/22/24/41/59/MC
Insights: Oh ya know, Big Maple’s a bit of a head-scratcher this week, eh? I mean, if he’s healthy—and that’s a big if, buddy—he’s got the game to navigate Portrush just fine. Fairways and greens? That’s kinda his thing when he’s dialed. But toss in that WD at the U.S. Open and a ho-hum T47 last week, and you can see why folks might give 'er a pass. Still, he’s been sneaky solid with the flatstick lately—gained on the greens in 4 of 5? That’ll play. Just gotta hope the back holds up and the wind doesn’t spook him off his tempo. So is he a sleeper or a lineup landmine? Little from column A, little from column B. Feels like one of those weeks where he coasts into a respectable T38, gets a couple polite claps from the gallery, and quietly boards his flight home. Classic Canadian exit—courteous, understated, and no drama.
Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +2200
Rank: Top 20 T2G, OTT, ARG, TD, BOB, P5 BOB; Outside Top 85 APP, GIR, PROX, RPROX, 3PA, SCR, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARG 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 30/9/MC/4
Open Results: MC/60/8/33/MC/51/MC
Comp Results: 2/24/31/MC
Insights: Bryson is typically a big-game hunter in Majors, but The Open is undoubtedly where his worst Major performances live. With no better than an 8th-place finish in the across-the-pond Major, I question Bryson’s upside this week, especially given the season-long struggles with his irons. Bryson’s short game is also a concern this week, as he’s lost strokes in that department in his last 3 events. His outright number is fair given his success this year relative to the top of the oddsboard, but it’s for a reason, as oddsmakers clearly know his Open history. For what it’s worth, he grades out in the Top 25 on links courses over the last 3 years, and he’s been good in windy and wet conditions over the last year, but that hasn’t correlated to success at this event in the past.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2600
Rank: Top 20 T2G, APP, ARG, SCR, P4; Outside Top 70 TD, GIR, RPROX, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 34/2/MC/16
Open Results: MC/10/4/33/2/12/27/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 3/4/43/MC
Insights: Tommy Lad is back in his homeland. Considering this event isn’t in North America, Fleetwood has a legitimate chance to win it, right? That’s the popular handicap on Tommy, anyway. He can’t win in America (or Canada), but he CAN win in Europe…or so they say. Regionality aside, Tommy is one of the best iron players in the world, failing to lose on Approach to the field since Valspar. The short game comes and goes, and he doesn't have the best track record on slow greens like these. However, he’s one of the 10 best Links players in the world over the last 3 years, as well as elite in windy and wet conditions. It’s only a matter of time until we see Tommy breakthrough like Xander did last year. This week feels like an opportunity for him.
Sergio Garcia
Odds: +20000
Rank: Top 70 T2G, APP, OTT, TD, PROX, P5 BOB; Outside Top 100 ARG, PUTT, GIR, SCR, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARG 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 10/MC/25/37
Open Results: 68/19/67/MC/37/5/6/2/21/MC/9/14/38/51/2/5/5/MC/10/8/9/36/MC/29/MC
Comp Results: 2/6/8/9/13/14/31/31/33/37/43/50/MC/MC/MC
Insights: A storied veteran when it comes to Majors and Open appearances, Sergio is always an interesting handicap. However, the form and eye test hasn’t been really been there this year for him, especially of late. His Top 10 at LIV Andalucia was his best result since LIV Miami in April and was the first time he had real gains on APP since the Masters. He has lost strokes T2G in 5 of last 7 events, and his short game has been a negative more than a positive in the last few months. If you’re interested in Sergio this week, I recommend him as a DFS flyer or as a piece of a make-cut parlay. Otherwise, I’d be looking elsewhere for a longshot bet.
Tyrrell Hatton
Odds: +3300
Rank: Top 30 T2G, APP, OTT, ARG, TD, P5 BOB; Outside Top 85 PUTT, PROX, RPROX, 3PA, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARG 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/5/4/15
Open Results: MC/20/11/MC/6/51/MC/5/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 4/7/59/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hatton doesn’t have the same type of overall resume as fellow-LIVer Rahm, but he has played above-average golf this year with 8 Top 20s in 13 LIV events + Majors. Of British descent, he plays well on Links courses with a Top 15 field rank in that department. He’s also above-average in windy and wet conditions. Expect him to excel in ball-striking this week, but an area of concern would be on the greens. He’s about average in SG: Putting and 3-Putt Avoidance on slow greens, which is what we’re going to see this week at Portrush. Placement bets and DFS exposure are certainly on the table for Hatton this week. If you like him outright, search for something at least 30/1 or better. I would prefer 40-50 range, but not sure we’re going to get that. For what it’s worth, his 4th-place finish at the US Open was his best Majors result since his T9 at the 2024 Masters. Those were his only Top 10 finishes in Majors since his T6 at Portrush in 2019.
Russell Henley
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100 exclude OTT (114), TD (105), OTT/TD AVG (110), BOB 200+ (145), LR1 (101)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/10/5/MC
Open Results: 5/20/37/62/73/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 1/3/6/7/8/13/20/24/29/41/43/44/56/59/60/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Look, Russ is checking all the boxes lately—form’s hot, irons are crisp, and he’s got Open pedigree with that Top 5 last year. Add in the win on a comp course and this week’s setup favoring precision off the tee? It all sounds great. But here’s the thing—when everyone’s rushing to grab the same lottery ticket, it’s usually already been scratched. MC, MC, and a lone T10 in the majors this year doesn’t exactly scream “trust me when it counts.” Could he go out and post a Thursday 65 and make us all look silly? Sure. That’s why the FRL (First Round Leader) dart isn’t a bad idea. But as for the full sweat? Champ’s happy to let the crowd chase the hype. Sometimes the smart play is knowing when to let the trendy train pass by.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +3000
Rank: Top 40 T2G, APP, PROX, BOB, P3, P5 BOB; Outside Top 70 ARG, PUTT, 3PA, SCR, 3PA, BA
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 11/WD/3/25
Open Results: MC/13/4/12
Comp Results: 15/17/43/MC
Insights: Vik’s WD in the 4th Round of the Travelers was a concern heading into the Scottish Open, but he put those concerns to bed by gaining over 7 strokes on APP and nearly 2 strokes on the greens. The 11th-place finish was held down by poor ARG play, which is typical of Hovland. For reference, he lost nearly 2.5 strokes around the greens last weekend. He’s going to need to clean that up if he wants to compete this week. Luckily for him, the agronomy around the greens here should be similar to last week. Only difference is the elevated greens. Off the tee is also a slight concern. He’s not exactly the most accurate driver of the golf ball, and things can get squirrelly here very quickly if you’re missing the fairways by big margin. That being said, Vik should find himself competing for the front page on the leaderboard assuming his Approach play remains red-hot. He’s gained with the irons in every single event this season aside from the Sentry. In fact, he’s 1st in the field in App last 16 rounds. It’s worth mentioning that his precision wanes when he’s hitting into small greens, as he ranks outside the top 40 in GIR into said small greens. If he’s missing a bunch of greens, that puts a lot of pressure on his ARG play - the worst aspect of his game.
Thriston Lawrence
Odds: +22500
Rank: Top 40 TD, RPROX; Outside Top 80 T2G, APP, ARG, PUTT, PROX, 3PA, SCR, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARG 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/44/8/12
Open Results: 4/74/42
Comp Results: MC/MC
Insights: A bonafide longshot this week, the South African found his way out of a rut at the US Open, where he finished T12 while gaining strokes in every major category. That form did not fade, as he finished 8th at the Rocket Classic 2 weeks later, also gaining across the board. His ceiling is likely capped in a field as strong as this one, but there are worse clicks in this range at least as it pertains to DFS. His driver should be a weapon this week, as he is one of the most accurate players on Tour of late. He also tends to be fairly precise on App into small greens, while putting above his baseline on slow greens. Concerns lie around the green and in the bogey avoidance department. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the best track record in windy and wet conditions. That being said, if you’re interested in getting some exposure to Thirsty this week, consider a placement bet or a FRL bet.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds:
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 125150 (156), BOB 125150 (132), ER2 (138)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 65/17/2/36
Open Results: 6/8/34/50/71
Comp Results: 60/MC
Insights: Look, last week went exactly how Champ drew it up—fading Bobby Mac as he tried to defend on home soil? Textbook. The driver was all over the map, the putter took the week off, and the result was exactly what we expected: flat. Now could he flip the script and channel his Oakmont runner-up magic? Sure. But just as easily, he could post another sleepy T47 or head home early like he did at the PGA and Masters. That’s why Champ’s leaning DFS only—let someone else light their bankroll on fire hoping for the boom. You want upside? Circle him for a Sunday charge and maybe dabble in live outrights or matchup plays if he’s hanging around late Saturday. But if he flames out again, don’t say you weren’t warned.
Matt McCarty
Odds: +25000
Stats: Top 100 exclude TG (107), OTT (101), APP (118), APP 200+ (111), BOB 125150 (105), BOB 200+ (107)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/MC/19/MC
Open Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 48/52
Insights: Ahhh yes, the ol’ Lefty Magic creeping into Champ’s Top 10—didn’t see that one coming, did ya? Not getting much buzz this week, probably ‘cause it’s his Open debut and folks get nervous without a comfy course history pillow to rest on. But look closer: 7 Top 25s in his last 14 starts? That’s not noise, that’s a pattern—and we love a good pattern. Sure, the major record isn’t sparkling—MC, MC, 14—but toss in a quiet T25 at the Scottish last week and suddenly you’ve got a guy who’s been slipping into leaderboards like a lefty shaping one into the breeze. It’s the kind of pick that doesn’t win you headlines on Thursday, but makes you look brilliant by Sunday. There’s something brewing with this one—and if the magic shows up, don’t act surprised. The clubhouse crew’s been whispering for weeks.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR (115), ARD/SCR AVG (102), PUTT (129), BOB 150175 (114)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: MC/8/42/23
Open Results: 1/16/MC/MC
Comp Results: 52/63/MC
Insights: Collin, Collin, Collin… what are we gonna do with you? We’ve seen what you’re capable of—you’ve literally lifted this trophy before. And yet here we are, talking about a 76 on Friday and another week where you just couldn’t piece it all together. It’s like watching a straight-A student forget how to spell their own name on the test. 14th, 50th, 23rd in majors this year? That’s not failing, but it’s not living up to your potential either—and you know it. The talent’s there. The swing’s still buttery. But if you keep leaving opportunities out there, you’ll be watching from the outside while others chase glory. We’re not mad, Collin. We’re just… disappointed.
Joaquin Niemann
Odds: +5500
Rank: Top 50 T2G, APP, TD, GIR; Outside Top 80 PROX, RPROX, 3PA, BOB, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 23/23/MC/1
Open Results: 58/MC/53/59/MC
Comp Results: 25/29/30/47/59/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The winningest player on LIV over the last 2 years, Niemann is certainly in good form coming into The Open. But as we know with Niemann, his Majors resume leaves a lot to be desired. His back-door 8th-place finish at the PGA Championship in May was his first Top 10 in a Major in his career, dating back to 2017 (more than 20 Majors). Furthermore, he has yet to crack a Top 50 in 5 Open appearances in his career. Poor Major history, poor Open history, and even poor course comp history with Champ’s comps is enough to keep me off. Joaquin also doesn’t have a good track record on Links courses of late. The price seems fair, but the upside here is questionable at best.
Patrick Reed
Odds: +9000
Rank: Top 50 T2G, APP, ARG, PUTT, TD, 3PA, P3; Outside Top 90 GIR, PROX, RPROX, SCR, BOB, BA, P5 BOB
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARG 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 10/MC/1/23
Open Results: 33/47/MC/10/28/MC/12/20/MC
Comp Results: 1/7/22/24/58/61/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Patrick is another LIV golfer that has been in good form his season. He has multiple Top 10 finishes, including a win at LIV Dallas a few weeks ago, but like Niemann, I question his upside at The Open. Don’t get me wrong, his Major and Open resume is much better than Niemann’s, yet he’s nearly double the odds for an outright bet. That being said, he doesn’t have the best history on Links courses. From a statistical perspective, Reed is extremely accurate off the tee, his irons have been red-hot outside of the BMW International Open (Euro event) in early July, and his short game is always a strength. If he puts it all together, he could threaten the front page of the leaderboard. You could do worse than 90/1 on Reed, but temper expectations slightly. A 10th place finish at Portrush in 2019 is his best finish at The Open in 9 appearances in this event. Given the odds, a Top 20 placement bet makes most sense, as does a DFS play with an affordable salary of $7,100.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +11500
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (106), APP 200+ (124), SCR (103), ARD/SCR AVG (101), BOB 150175 (107), LR2 (109)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25%: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, PROX, BS, BOB 125150, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/14/1/MC
Open Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/21/30/36/46/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JJ’s missed cut last week—paired with a rough week around and on the greens—will scare most off, including Sammy who’s still recovering. He did gain off the tee and on approach, so the ball-striking is fine. But with this being his Open debut and coming off a MC at Scottish, won’t be a trendy pick. Major winner but this doesn’t feel like the spot to chase. Real question: Who will be this week’s US Open J.J. Spaun?
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (108)
Rank: Top 75% across; Top 10: TG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/45/MC/3
Open Results: 2/22/MC
Comp Results: 1/5/5/11/27/33/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Now this one’s got Champ scratching his head a bit—where’s the Sepp buzz? Sure, the approach numbers have dipped recently, but he’s been rolling the rock like a man possessed, and it’s translated to two Top 10s in his last four, including last week at the Scottish. Let’s not forget: dude won on a comp course and finished runner-up at The Open just last year. That résumé doesn’t exactly scream “ignore me.” Yet here we are, with barely a whisper around a guy chasing his third win of the season. Feels like everyone’s staring at the fireworks and missing the sparkler right in front of them. All aboard the Sepp Wagon this week.
Nick Taylor
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude BOB 200+ (114), LR1 (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/17/23/13
Open Results: MC/MC
Comp Results: 16/30/41/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: BDN’s been solid since May with strong stats off the tee and in greens hit. The PGA miss was a poor fit, but otherwise consistent. His Open and comp course history isn’t great—MC twice and no Top 10s—which will turn some off. Still, Champ leans toward trusting recent form and stats over history, making Nick a solid starting lineup choice this week.