Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Deere Results: Finishes at John Deere Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: The Summit Club, East Lake, Annadale, Southern Hills
Ben Griffin
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 125150, PROX
Rank: Top 75% exclude PROX
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/14/10/2
Deere Results: 5 (68-67-64-62, 2024)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Griffin checks all the boxes: strong season-to-date, sharp current form, and solid showing last year at TPC Deere Run. At 16/1, the price is fair and he's the rightful favorite in my eye. That said, he is Champ’s first hat tip of the week. Just not the right fit for my capital this time around and will let the results fall where they may.
Davis Thompson
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, PUTT, BA, LR1
Rank: Top 75% exclude SCR, PUTT, BA, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 34/25/MC/49
Deere Results: 1/31 (7 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 62)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: If you told me Davis Thompson would putt to field average or better, I could start daydreaming about a title defense. The rest of the game is there. Champ doesn’t expect a turnaround this week and add in that Sammy’s already slapped the “fade of the week” label on him, and that’s enough to pull the plug for TBCH. We'll let someone else pray for a hot putter.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 125150, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/41/54/33
Deere Results: 2/17 (7 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low 63 (twice))
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Champ was all-in on Young Thor after that gorgeous shot tracker show at the Rocket — pure art down the stretch. The kid’s got the goods, and the future’s bright. But then the hype train rolled in, the odds dipped under 30/1, and suddenly everyone's a believer. So, I'm sticking with him in one-and-done… but the wallet stays closed. I’ll gladly be that guy plugging his nose and betting him at 15/1 next week at the ISCO. Until then, I’m watching with popcorn. Drop a note in the comments — square or sharp? Either way, I’m sleeping fine.
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
AND LISTEN TO US LIVE FROM FERG’S SPORTS BAR AND GRILLE IN DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG OR ON RADIOSTPETE.COM UNDER THE FLORIDA SPORTS STREAM CHANNEL EACH AND EVERY TUESDAY FROM 7:00 PM EST to 8:00 PM EST.
Cameron Champ
Odds: +8000
Stats: No Stats
Rank: No Stats
SG Gains*: OTT 2/2, APP 2/2, ARD 1/2, PUTT 2/2
*Last 4 starts: 2 PGA Tour and 2 KFT. Only PGA Tour with SG Metrics
FORM: 19/9/MC/52
Deere Results: 11/51/MC/MC/MC (5 last 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 66)
Comp Results: 24/MC
Insights: A name most golf fans know, we haven’t seen much of Cam Champ this year. However, he has played pretty well when he does decide to tee it up. In 6 solo PGA events this season, Champ has missed the cut twice. Each of the 4 times he made the cut, he finished in the top 20 (Rocket, Canada, CJ Cup, Puerto Rico). He is a perfect target for a T20 bet at 3/1 or better, especially given the short term form he’s been in over the last month. For reference, he gained more than 6 strokes tee-to-green in both the Rocket Classic and Canadian Open, on top of 1.5 strokes on the greens in each. Sammy will ride the form for another T20 finish, as Cam finished 2nd in his primary model this week with Top 10 field grades in SG: OTT L24 rds, GIR into small greens, Bentgrass putting, Good Drive%, Bogey Avoidance on easy courses.
Jason Day
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, APP 151075, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB 175200
Rank: Top 75% exclude TD, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/23/MC/49
Deere Results: 15/15/23/41/67/68 (69-67-66-66, 2024)
Comp Results: 4/6/10/14/17/17/18/28/55/64/WD/MC
Insights: Day is Sammy’s favorite pick at the top of the board this week. While the odds aren’t that attractive on the surface for J-Day, he has been very consistent this season. The short game continues to be an advantage since the API, which is a huge plus in a birdie first, and he has improved as a ball-striker when you compare his SG:APP + SG:OTT numbers L24 rounds vs L12 rounds. If you have a boost, use it on Day. If you have an each way market, pump those odds up by getting him with 3 places instead of 5 or 8. This is just how I intend to approach it. For what it’s worth, Day is 4th in the field in SG:P on Bentgrass over the last 12 months, as well as 10th in Birdie-or-Better% from the fairway on easy courses and 1st overall in the field in bogey avoidance on easy courses. Day hasn’t been the most accurate OTT this year, but he’s gained strokes in that department in 5 of 6 appearances at the John Deere — though most of those appearances are from almost 15 years ago. TPC Deere Run is one of the 10 widest courses on Tour, so his accuracy inconsistencies should be alleviated here. More recently, he played here last year and finished Top 25, losing strokes only with his irons. If Day can gain about 1 strokes to the field with his irons this week like he did at TPC River Highlands, I think he will be in contention on Sunday.
Lee Hodges
Odds: +6600
Stats: Top 100 exclude BOB 125150 (145), P3 (106), ER2 (137)
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB 125150, Top 10: TD, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4, P5, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 34/9/53/MC
Deere Results: 43/77 (5 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low 66)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Lee Hodges quietly checks a lot of boxes this week — Top 100 in season stats (minus 3 categories and a tee split) and Top 10 in nine key metrics for this field. Last year’s T77 at TPC Deere Run hides a strong 66-67 start before a rough weekend derailed things. Two starts ago he closed 63-69 at RBC Canadian, showing he can finish when the game’s on. He’s got something to prove, but Champ sees sneaky Top 5 upside here and at 66/1 he makes Champ’s outright four pack.
Mark Hubbard
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 125150 (130), APP 150175 (124), ARD (121), ARD/SCR AVG (106), BOB 150175 (142)
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/MC/47/28
Deere Results: 6/13/24/32/41/MC/MC (12 of the last 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 66 (twice))
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: This feels like the perfect course and timing for Hubbard to finally break through — if it’s ever going to happen, it might be this week. Champ won’t be backing him outright, but a First Round Lead or Sunday tee time in the final groups wouldn’t surprise. Strong DFS play if ownership stays in check. Just a watch-and-see week from the sidelines for TBCH.
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (122), PUTT (152), BOB 175200 (135), ER2 (120)
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 51/MC/22/MC
Deere Results: N/A
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Kitty’s the kind of high-upside play Champ loves to be early on. The form isn’t spotless — Top 5 at the Nelson (5 starts ago), two missed cuts in his last four — but don’t sleep: this is a guy who’s won a Signature Event (API). Putter’s cooled, sure, but dig into the Bentgrass splits and he’s Top 10 in the field — that’s the missing puzzle piece. No course or comp history, but this is a ceiling play, not a course fit play. Champ’s adding him to the outright four-pack with confidence.
Matt McCarty
Odds: +7500
Stats: Top 125 exclude TG, APP, ER1
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 19/MC/4/MC
Deere Results: N/A
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: A player that has TBCH has been invested in across various markets over the last few months, McCarty finds himself at a very inviting number this week. He’s one of the most-tipped golfers of the week, but the value just feels too good to pass up — especially if you can get him at 100/1 with 3 places on B365. Even at 75/1 McCarty feels like a tremendous value on the board after he was top 3 in SG:P last week in Detroit. His short game is a strength, as he’s Top 15 in the field in SG: P overall L24 rounds and SG: P on Bentgrass greens over the last year. He is fairly accurate OTT, and he typically capitalizes on scoring at these easy courses, being that he’s 2nd in the field in BoB% on easy courses with weak fields over the last 12 months. This is a very niche filter to model, but it represents the exact conditions of playing at an event like the John Deere Classic, where you have to go lower than -20 to win the event. Iron play inconsistency is certainly a concern, but again, this is 75/1 we’re talking about, not 35/1. Both Sammy and Champ are on McCarty this week. Don’t hesitate to include him in your DFS lineups either.
Thorbjorn Olesen
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, BOB 125150
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 125150, APP 150175
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 41/MC/36/46
Deere Results: 61 (69-68-71-68, 2024)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Olesen might be a familiar face in Champ’s Top 10 lists, but lately he's been more ghost than god — zero Top 20s in his last five. The driver’s been shaky, the irons have cooled, and while the flat stick is hanging in there, we all know how this story goes: putter cools off just as the irons heat up. Not ideal when both need to fire in sync at a birdie fest like this. Champ's sitting this one out — lightning’s not striking here… at least not this week.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 125150 (142), BOB 150175 (112), BOB 175200 (145), LR2 (106)
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 125150, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/18/46/54
Deere Results: 31 (69-63-68-73, 2023)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Kevin Roy is someone that graded extremely well for both Champ (4th overall) and Sammy (1st overall), who run very different types of models. Roy doesn’t tee it up often, but when he does, he’s usually good for at least a Top 40 finish. His ball-striking has really been trending lately, as he’s gained strokes on Approach in his last 4 events with ShotLink. In 3 of those 4, he also gained over 1.5 strokes OTT. He comes into this event off back-to-back Top 20s and could find himself on the front page of the leaderboard if he is able to replicate his putting performances from Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2023 John Deere Classic — when he finished T31 (only appearance). With Top 15 marks in recent SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, GIR% into small greens, Overall Proximity, and Bogey Avoidance on easy courses, Roy definitely fits the mold of a player that can succeed at TPC DR on paper. Let’s see if he can get that to translate to the course. We’re trusting our approach and BUYING Roy this week at this price. Fire him up in DFS as well.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (106), BOB 125150 (106,) BOB 175200 (101)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 20: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, ER2
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: MC/13/MC/28
Deere Results: 2/16/47/MC (6 last 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 62)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Another time, another place, and Smalley would’ve made Champ’s outright card. His runner-up here two years ago still brings back memories (and stress) from a sweaty Sepp Straka 50/1 ticket. Recent approach numbers — nearly 2 strokes lost last week and in 2 of his last 3 starts — keep him from a full investment. Still, season-long stats shine, and 8 Top 25s plus a Top 5 at Myrtle Beach show the ceiling remains. Champ’s tossing a First Round Leader dart, hoping for early magic but keeping expectations measured over 72.
Kevin Yu
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (136), SCR (146), ARD/SCR AVG (141), PUTT (123), LR2 (123)
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/3/MC/50
Deere Results: 6/20 (5 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 63)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Kevin Yu’s recent results at TPC Deere Run show this course fits his game well. Though he ranks 81st on bentgrass greens in this field, he’s gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts and in his last two here at the John Deere Classic. Champ’s backing him at 50/1 for First Round Leader and sees 35/1 as fair for an outright, but iron inconsistency over 72 holes is a concern. The plan: play the short-term edge FRL ticket and round 1 matchups, then reassess for a possible Saturday jump-in if irons are trending.