2025 Genesis Scottish Open - Player Deep Dives
Follow: X - BettorClubhouse IG - TheBettorClubhouse Threads – TheBettorClubhouse
Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Scottish Open Results: Finishes at Scottish Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Royal Portrush, Royal Birkdale, Royal St. Georges, Royal Troon
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude BOB 125150 (74), LR2 (74)
Rank: Top 25% exclude APP 125150, BOB 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 6/7/1/4
Scottish Open Results: 3/MC (3 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 65)
Comp Results: 7/8
Insights: Like we’ve said for weeks, there’s nothing to really say about Scottie. His game speaks for itself. Main concern is putting on slow surfaces, and he tends to have a higher 3-putt rate on larger greens. We’ve seen him lose his cool when putts aren’t dropping, but we’re nitpicking here. 1st overall in the field in recent T2G, APP, BOB, 200+ form. DFS staple, plenty of salary cap down the board to make it work in your lineups. If you can find + money on a Top 5 where ties are paid in full, that would be our recommendation. Top 10 at -150 or better isn’t a bad look, either.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (161), APP 175200 (110), PROX (151), BOB 150175 (127)
Rank: Top 75% exclude APP 150175, PROX
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 6/19/MC/47
Scottish Open Results: 1/4 (8 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 4/5/25/46/MC/MC
Insights: Rory returns to his stomping grounds of the UK and arguably has a similar ceiling as Scottie. However, his floor is objectively lower. That being said, back-to-back op 20 finishes with excellent Round 4 scoring is interesting, especially when you consider he’s returning to a course where he finished Top 5 each of the las 2 years. 10/1 or better in the outright market seems fair, and we wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to jump on at that number in an environment that should be extremely comfortable for him.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 100 exclude GIR (128), APP 17200 (156), BS (115), BOB 175200 (128), P3 (157), LR1 (152)
Rank: Top 75% exclude GIR, APP 175200, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/MC/16/4
Scottish Open Results: 4/6/34 (8 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 63)
Comp Results: 2/27/33/MC/MC
Insights: Another UK native, Tommy Lad will make his first appearance since blowing the Travelers in mid-June. His course history around Renaissance Club would only be better if he had a win on the resume, but that’s the case with Tommy no matter where he plays. Stats wise, he’s gained on Approach in every tournament since the Valero, and his putter has cooperated most weeks in that span. Maybe being back in Europe helps him overcome some of the mental hurdles, but this price makes it hard to bet. We would want at least 35/1 on Tommy, but the books refuse to give that to us. FRL potential, DFS makes sense as well.
FOLLOW EACH MEMBER OF THE CLUBHOUSE CREW ON THEIR SOCIALS!
Champ - @Champs311
Sammy - @SammyAvBets
LISTEN TO US LIVE FROM FERG’S SPORTS BAR AND GRILLE IN DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG OR ON RADIOSTPETE.COM UNDER THE FLORIDA SPORTS STREAM CHANNEL EACH AND EVERY TUESDAY FROM 7:00 PM EST to 8:00 PM EST.
Corey Conners
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (113)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25%: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: WD/27/25/19
Scottish Open Results: 10/19/61 (6 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: 15/25/MC
Insights: The Big Maple rates very nicely in both of our models, but the recent WD due to injury is the biggest concern here. Like Tommy, his numbers look very good on paper, but the results haven’t followed suit of late from an outright perspective. Although, his odds are much more inviting than Tommy’s. We wouldn’t mind someone taking a shot at 50/1 or better, but overall we’re going to lay off given injury concerns and the fact that he hasn’t played competitively in about a month.
Ryan Fox
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, BS, SCR
Rank: Top 75% exclude TD, GIR, BS, SCR
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 17/19/1/20
Scottish Open Results: 12/47/57 (8 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 67 four times)
Comp Results: 16/25/67/MC
Insights: One of the more popular names down the board and it makes a ton of sense. The New Zealand native has been playing out of his mind lately with 2 wins in his last 6 starts and no finishes outside the Top 30 in that span. He sits 2nd in Sammy’s model this week with Top 10 field ranks in recent T2G, APP, PUTT, and BOB metrics, but he’s not someone we are likely to get to the window with in the outright market given how loaded this field is. Likely going to lay off in DFS as well given his popularity, but a placement bet is in the cards here, as is a potential FRL look.
Lee Hodges
Odds: +15000
Stats: Top 100 exclude BOB 125150 (152)
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB 125150
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 21/34/9/53
Scottish Open Results: 12/46 (7 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 67 twice)
Comp Results: DNP
Insights: Our boy Lee still sits in both of our Top 10s this week. Approach numbers have been off the charts of late, but he hasn’t been playing in events with fields this strong recently. While his numbers look great on paper, the putting is a concern, as is the cross-world travel from Illinois to Scotland following the John Deere. These factors limit his upside in an event like this. Placement markets make the most sense for Lee. We wouldn’t blame you for a FRL bet either given the fact that he’s 4th on Tour in Round 1 scoring.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR (102), PUTT 115), BOB 150175 (115)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% exclude TD, APP 200, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 200, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 8/42/23/20
Scottish Open Results: 4/MC (4 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 65)
Comp Results: 1/16
Insights: Checking in the Top 5 in both of our models, there’s no denying Collin’s ball-striking prowess. The issue has been and seems to always will be with his putter. That being said, the Renaissance Club is a course at which Collin has gained about 7 strokes on the greens collectively in his last 2 appearances. He seems to be much better as a putter when the greens are slower, which they are here in Scotland. If his flat-stick cooperates, he has winning upside given his elite Approach play. Maybe having Billy Foster on the bag gives him the guidance he needs to get over the hump? 25/1 is a fair number and worth betting in the outright market if you decide to pass on the other players at the top of the board. Starting your DFS lineups with Collin would be a great way to build a unique, balanced lineup. Fire up in OAD contests if you still have him, or wait to see how he looks this week with the intention to use him next week at the Open.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude BOB 125150 (118), BOB 175200 (108)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25% exclude APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200, PROX, APP AVG, PUTT, BOB 125150, BOB 175200, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/MC/13/MC
Scottish Open Results: 10/MC (2 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 67 twice)
Comp Results: DNP
Insights: Smalley has fallen off a bit when it comes to his iron play. He’s lost strokes in 3 of his last 4 events, which doesn’t pair well with a net-negative short game. Someone the season-long numbers still like, but recent form hasn’t been quite as consistent as it was earlier this season. He’s a wait-and-see option for us at the moment. He makes a ton of sense at Sedgefield in a few weeks.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (111), APP 200 (122), SCR (104), BOB 150175 (103)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25%: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 125105, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 125150, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/1/MC/6
Scottish Open Results: 59 (70-71-71-74)
Comp Results: DNP
Insights: Another guy that mutually ranks in the Top 10 of our models, which are run very differently. JJ showed a ton of moxie at the Travelers after his historic win at the US Open. He predictably started slow due to his major-winning hangover, but he did not lay down. In fact, he gained over 8 strokes total in Rounds 3 and 4 combined at TPC River Highlands, which is extremely commendable given the circumstances. While his course history here is limited and mediocre, his odds are very inviting when considering his form (4 Top 20 finishes in his last 6 events, including that US Open win). For what it’s worth, JJ is Top 20 in this field in recent APP, TD, PUTT, and P5 BOB metrics. We absolutely consider him to be someone that could win this tournament. Fire up with confidence in DFS.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (128), SCR 107), ARD/SCR AVG (117)
Rank: Top 75% exclude ARD
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 45/MC/3/MC
Scottish Open Results: MC/MC (1 of 4 rounds in 60s, Low: 68)
Comp Results: 22
Insights: Sepp was electric to start the year, but recent form is a concern, as well as his ugly course history. For reference, he’s missed the cut in both appearances at the Renaissance Club, and only 1 of those 4 rounds was in the 60s. His ball-striking seems fine, but short game is the real struggle at the moment. Could he spike after a few weeks off to recalibrate? Sure. But, he doesn’t have the best track record on slow greens, so we’re not betting on the short-game form to return just yet. We will be monitoring him closely ahead of the Open next week, though.
Nick Taylor
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude OTT (102), OTT/TD AVG (101), BOB 200 (107), P5 (113), LR1 (132)
Rank: Top 75% across, Top 25%: TG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/23/13/4
Scottish Open Results: 19/55/57 (6 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: BDN hit a lull in the middle of the season, but the form is undoubtedly coming back. He’s finished in the Top 25 in 5 of his last 6 events, including a 4th-place finish at the Memorial. Approach gains in 6 straight events, and gains with the putter in 4 of them could lead to a solid finish in Scotland. Only concern would be just 1 Top 20 finish in 3 starts at the Renaissance Club and 2 missed cuts in 2 appearances at the Open. Meaning, his history across the pond isn’t quite ideal. The odds are extremely juicy, though. We wouldn’t blame you for getting your exposure on BDN in any way that you can this week.