Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
St Jude Results: Finishes at the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Albany, Port Royal, PGA West & Sea Island
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +280
Stats: Top 25!!!!!!! exclude BOB 150175 (66)
Rank: Top 25 exclude BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/8/6/7
St Jude Results: 4/31/MC/14/15/43/MC
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/3/5/57
Insights: Back to reality. Scottie is in the field, so naturally it feels like his to lose. Admittedly, he doesn’t have the best track record around TPC Southwind, but how much does that really matter? He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since March, a run of 11 straight events on all different types of courses. Furthermore, he’s gained strokes on Approach in every single event this year. In fact, he’s gained more than 5 strokes to the field with his irons in 8 of his last 9 events, and has figured out the flat stick on top of it. The dude is a machine. We wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to single-barrel Scottie this week. It just comes down to your price tolerance and whether or not you want to take multiple shots at golfers in the 30-50 range.
Sepp Straka
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude TD (57), OTT/TD AVG (52), ARD (110), SCR (64), ARD/SCR AVG (87), BOB 175200 (53)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 52/7/45/MC
St Jude Results: 61/63/2
Comp Results: 2/9/10/21/44/51/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Sepp Straka is the 15th lowest odds yet 2nd in key metrics. Top 10 in field on Bermuda greens yet lost on TPC Southwind’s greens in 2 of 3 starts. Putter will be the key and on newly renovated greens perhaps a flip is in order and gets warm on the dance floor along with the warm expected temperatures in the air. Fading him in Champ’s opinion is a mistake and keep him in mind for East Lake too.
Russell Henley
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude OTT (115), TD (104), OTT/TD AVG (11), BOB 175200 (92), P5 (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 10/2/10/5
St Jude Results: 30/6/MC/MC/7/MC/27
Comp Results: 4/6/10/13/19/22/30/56/65/MC/MC
Insights: Bigger surprise? Russell Henley ranking 3rd in strokes gained metrics this week or sitting 8th on the odds board? Quietly Top 5 in the FedEx Cup and with two Top 5 finishes at East Lake, he’s perfectly positioned for a run at the Tour Champ, but don’t overlook what’s right in front of us—four straight Top 10s, elite ball-striking form, and a win against a loaded field at API just nine starts back. Price is right and Henley’s absolutely live to cash this week.
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Ludvig Aberg
Sam Burns
Keegan Bradley
Corey Conners
Tommy Fleetwood
Viktor Hovland
Kurt Kitayama
Robert MacIntyre
Collin Morikawa
J.J. Spaun
Nick Taylor
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (152), SCR (130), ARD/SCR AVG (141), PUTT (101), BA (116), P3 (135)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 23/8/36/MC
St Jude Results: 40 (71-68-70-68, 2024)
Comp Results: 1/6/17/51/MC
Insights: It feels like yesterday when we watched Aberg throw up into the rough at Torrey Pines, but here we are, into the playoffs. Aberg’s season has been an interesting one. He’s had more MC and WD’s than he’s had Top 10 finishes. However, the game seems to be coming around for Sweed, as he’s gained strokes ball-striking in 6 straight events. The issues primarily are the lack of consistent driving accuracy and putting, but his distance off the tee should be an asset this week. Furthermore, he’s top 10 in the field in GIR% and BOB% over his last 24 rounds, in addition to being above-average with his long irons. The price is intriguing if you can stomach his floor. He certainly possesses the DNA of a player that can win on this course if he brings his A-game, though he has to avoid blow-up holes over the weekend to actually contend - which has been a common theme for him his year.
Keegan Bradley
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100 exclude PUTT (102), P5 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/30/41/1
St Jude Results: 59/43/MC/52/61/25
Comp Results: 5/7/13/15/15/18/48/MC
Insights: Last week’s boom-or-bust script? Busted. The irons have gone cold in 3 of his last 5, and the putter isn’t stepping up to carry the load. Feels like his focus has quietly shifted to Ryder Cup captain duties—rightfully so. Unless he sneaks into a Top 20 this week, I’m content to fade and let him wear the headset the rest of the season. Sure, he’s Top 10 in Comcast points for bonus cash, but for him, it’s country over currency.
Sam Burns
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude TG (103), APP (132), APP 175200 (115), PROX (129_, APP AVG (103), SCR (111)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 61/45/47/17
St Jude Results: 5/52/20/2/MC
Comp Results: 3/12/14/16/37
Insights: Can you feel the Burn? Sam has been an interesting case study this year. He probably should have won the Canadian Open, and then he completely melted in the rain at the US Open, but his ball-striking has been solid recently (top 25 in SG: OTT and SG: APP last 24 rounds), and we all know how good of a putter he is - especially on these surfaces. People don’t call him “Bermuda Burns” for nothing. He finished T5 here last year with solid gains on Approach, in addition to gaining 7+ strokes to the field on the greens. His main issues were off the tee, but he’s 2nd in the field in Total Driving over his last 24 rounds, which should pair nicely with his elite GIR% of late and top 10 Bogey Avoidance mark. The price feels very nice for the upside Burns presents so long as he can hit more fairways than he did last year (only 29/56).
Corey Conners
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (122), P5 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/47/WD/27
St Jude Results: 50/6/28/36/30/27/68/MC
Comp Results: 10/16/22/23/37/44
Insights: The Big Maple has been flying under the radar since his WD at the USOpen due to a wrist injury. He took nearly a month off before returning at the Scottish Open, where he lost strokes on Approach but gained Off-the-Tee and on the greens and finished T47. He looked much better at The Open, finishing 10th with strong Tee-to-Green gains and a manageable loss on the greens (just about 1 stroke lost). CC has finished in the top 5 just once this season, but his floor feels higher than most, as he’s been cut from just 1 event and has finished in the top 20 in half of his 18 events this year. He hasn’t won a tournament in over 2 years, but that didn’t matter much for Cam Young last week now did it? I don’t mind playing CC’s floor with a top 20 placement bet, but I also don’t mind playing for upside at 40/1 or better. The choice is yours.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100 exclude GIR (121), AP 175200 (168), PROX (103), BS (107), BOB 175200 (149), P3 (147)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/34/2/MC
St Jude Results: 22/3/46/35/4
Comp Results: 3/20/37
Insights: Tommy has to be one of, if not the best golfer that has yet to win on the PGA Tour. He’s a perennial winner on the European Tour, but it just hasn’t clicked for him in America. That being said, TPC Southwind is a track he’s had success at, finishing T22 last year despite losing almost 8!!! strokes to the field on the greens and T3 in 2023 with gains everywhere but around the greens. He’s gained on Approach in 10 of his last 11 events. In fact, he’s failed to gain strokes on Approach just twice this year. However, none of those gains have been notably massive. Candidly, the price just sucks for a guy that has yet to win on Tour, especially when you consider he’s 50th in the field in Total Driving over his last 24 rounds and 44th in GIR%. At this number, probably a hat-tip for us, but we will be cheering for him if he’s near the top.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (141), SCR (151), ARD/SCR AVG (146), BOB 175200 (123), BA (150), P4 (116)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 63/11/WD/3
St Jude Results: 2/13/20/36/59
Comp Results: 1/1/10
Insights: Vik’s season has been a roller coaster of emotions. He started the year with 4 MCs in 6 events, and then randomly won the Valspar down in Champ’s backyard at Innisbrook. Since the win, he hasn’t missed a single cut (WD with injury at the Travelers in Round 4). He played exceptionally well at the US Open and had a legitimate chance to win that Major, but the putter failed him. Short game really is the main concern with Vik, but there’s always the “what if he just hits almost every green” caveat with him - which he’s very capable of at times. For reference, he’s 4th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, and he was top 12 in GIR% at this course last year. In fact, he’s finished inside the Top 20 in 3 straight years at this event with notable gains on Approach, and he surprisingly gained strokes on the greens in each of those 3 appearances. Last year, he finished T2 with over 5.5 strokes gained on APP, almost 3 strokes gained OTT, and over 3 strokes gained on the greens. If he can replicate that performance again this year, he’s certainly going to be in the mix. Vik feels like a buy this week.
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude APP 150175 (91), SCR (96), PUTT (151), P3 (90)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT
*SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 2/3
*One of his last 4 starts didn’t have SG Metrics
FORM: 31/1/14/5
St Jude Results: 52/MC
Comp Results: 65/MC
Insights: Kurt Kitayama sits 52nd in the FedEx Cup with a clear must-perform week ahead. Off the tee and approach have been trending since May, and the putter’s finally joined the party in his last four starts. Course history isn’t pretty, but with his current form, expect a personal best at TPC Southwind. Clubhouse says temper vibes for another win but match-ups are a go.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude APP 17200 (81), PROX (89), SCR (80), BOB 175200 (77)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: OTT, GIR, APP 150175, BS, BOB 150175, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 44/7/65/17
St Jude Results: 7/15/59
Comp Results: 7
Insights: Champ’s back on Bobby Mac at 50/1, willing to let last week slide. His season-long stats and clutch finishes in strong fields are exactly when you Return to the Mac. A deeper dive shows his comfort on these green types from his DP World Tour days, and just a quick reminder he sits in Top 15 in the OWGR. Final note: Sunday 65 here last year. Hop aboard.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 100 exclude SCR (121), ARD/SCR AVG (104), PUTT (129), BOB 150175 (122), P5 (115)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/MC/8/42
St Jude Results: 22/13/5/26/20
Comp Results: 5/6/7
Insights: Champ bailed on the Collin rollercoaster and—surprise—back-to-back missed cuts yet no hangover. That ride can keep spinning solo. Sure, 30/1 is nicer than those 16s we were choking down, but 86% of this game is mental, and watching Collin try to keep it together for 72 holes feels like balancing a wine glass on a rollerblade. Pure cinema and hat tip if he pulls it off. And hey, if Cam Young can finally summit, no reason Collin can’t... eventually. Anyone holding a Collin ticket on Sunday? That’s a ride-or-die friend you want at your poker table, no doubt.
J.J. Spaun
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 150175 (113), SCR (103), BOB 150175 (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175, BOB 150175, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 23/MC/14/1
St Jude Results: 24/42
Comp Results: 2/7/13/15/16/37/57/59/MC/MC
Insights: Hard to find a more consistent strokes gained profile than the 2025 U.S. Open champ. Pencil in +0.50 OTT, +0.65 on approach, break-even around the greens, and a casual +0.25 with the putter. Spaun does that and Champ has him at T19 in pen on Sunday night. Scary consistent just like Champ. Check back to see if Champ led you astray….he won’t.
Nick Taylor
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 175200 (112), P5 (115)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25: APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP AVG, BOB 150175,l BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/22/17/23
St Jude Results: 65/24/MC/35/30
Comp Results: 23/74/86/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Outside the majors, Nick Taylor’s got a win and has contended in stacked fields. Sure, his last start was a missed cut at Royal Portrush, but near triple digits this week? The clubhouse is happy to embrace BDN as a sharp match-up play and sneaky DFS pivot. A Top 20 is in reach if the deck shuffles his way, though it’d be his first at TPC Southwind in six tries. Temper expectations, but fade is not an option on the clubhouse menu.