2025 Charles Schwab Challenge - Player Deep Dives

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Colonial Country Club Only
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sea Island, Harbour Town, Waialae, Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, TPC San Antonio

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Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +230
Stats: Top 50 Across Exclude ARD (55th) and BOB150175 (51st)…..OUTRAGEOUS
Rank: Top 25% Across Exclude ARD and BOB150175, Avg Rank 8.24…Stupid Good
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 1/1/8/4
Colonial Results: 2/2/3/55/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/2/3/5/6/8/9/11
Insights: Best player in field but a long shot again. 19.5 Ranks ahead of 2nd for Key Stats + Tee Time Splits this week (5.94 Avg). Not only do his stats blow the field away, this should be considered one of the weaker fields as well and rivals that of another Texas Swing tournament and in which Scottie went on to win by 8 shots (CJ Cup Byron Nelson). Worried about motiviation? Don’t be, Scottie already shown he get win back to back including after a major championship like he did with his Masters-RBC Heritage back to back last year. Add in his love for the state of Texas and wanting to put on a show for his hometown state. Worst finish of 2025 was a T25 at WMPO, wouldn’t bet on a Over 25.5 place finish this week.

Daniel Berger
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 175200 (117), BOB 175200 (141), P3 (145)
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB 175200 & P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4 (0/3)
FORM: 33/11/3/21
Colonial Results: 1/20/23/45/53/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/3/3/5/7/10/11/13/13
Insights: Easy first click on the betting card this week strictly based on past winner at Colonial (beat Morikawa in playoff) and his OTT and APP gains over his last 4 starts. Add in his ability to close on Sundays in this type of field excluding Scottie, I was in. Do I worry about his putter? Yes. Does rank 12th in the field on Bentgrass greens for his career and has gained twice in 6 starts at Colonial and both led to Top 20 finishes and his lone Win. Fair price in my eyes and just need flatstick to cooperate.

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 10 in field T2G, APP, ARD; outside Top 100 Rough Proximity, P3
Rank: Top 50% APP, OTT, T2G, ARD, Accuracy, Overall Proximity, APP 50-150, BOB%, P4 ; Bottom 50%
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 41/4/7/21
Colonial Results: MC/35
Comp Results: 7/62/16/22/49/7/31/15/3/10
Insights: For as longstanding as Colonial has been on the PGA Tour, Tommy has very limited experience here. He hasn’t played here since missing the cut in 2023, and the only other time he played here was the year prior, when he finished T35 — gaining everywhere in the bag except OTT. In fact, he lost at least 0.5 strokes OTT in both of his starts here. However, he’s been positive OTT every event this year save Valero (which is at a comp course TPC San Antonio), ranking 21st in this field in Accuracy last 24 rounds. Approach play has been above average leading into this event, but he hasn’t had a spike week since February and leaves a bit to be desired with his short/mid irons — ranking outside the top 60 in APP 50-100 and 100-500. Another week in which I’ll be priced out on Tommy in the outright betting markets due to the fact that he just hasn’t been able to get into the winner’s circle in America and hasn’t legitimately contended much at all this year despite multiple top-10 finishes. If you don’t want to play Scottie in DFS (IDK why you wouldn’t), Tommy would be a fine selection to your roster. You’re going to need a Top 5 from him in order to pay his price tag, though.

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