Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Colonial Country Club Only
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sea Island, Harbour Town, Waialae, Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, TPC San Antonio
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +230
Stats: Top 50 Across Exclude ARD (55th) and BOB150175 (51st)…..OUTRAGEOUS
Rank: Top 25% Across Exclude ARD and BOB150175, Avg Rank 8.24…Stupid Good
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 1/1/8/4
Colonial Results: 2/2/3/55/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/2/3/5/6/8/9/11
Insights: Best player in field but a long shot again. 19.5 Ranks ahead of 2nd for Key Stats + Tee Time Splits this week (5.94 Avg). Not only do his stats blow the field away, this should be considered one of the weaker fields as well and rivals that of another Texas Swing tournament and in which Scottie went on to win by 8 shots (CJ Cup Byron Nelson). Worried about motiviation? Don’t be, Scottie already shown he get win back to back including after a major championship like he did with his Masters-RBC Heritage back to back last year. Add in his love for the state of Texas and wanting to put on a show for his hometown state. Worst finish of 2025 was a T25 at WMPO, wouldn’t bet on a Over 25.5 place finish this week.
Daniel Berger
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 175200 (117), BOB 175200 (141), P3 (145)
Rank: Top 75% exclude BOB 175200 & P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4 (0/3)
FORM: 33/11/3/21
Colonial Results: 1/20/23/45/53/MC
Comp Results: 1/2/3/3/5/7/10/11/13/13
Insights: Easy first click on the betting card this week strictly based on past winner at Colonial (beat Morikawa in playoff) and his OTT and APP gains over his last 4 starts. Add in his ability to close on Sundays in this type of field excluding Scottie, I was in. Do I worry about his putter? Yes. Does rank 12th in the field on Bentgrass greens for his career and has gained twice in 6 starts at Colonial and both led to Top 20 finishes and his lone Win. Fair price in my eyes and just need flatstick to cooperate.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 10 in field T2G, APP, ARD; outside Top 100 Rough Proximity, P3
Rank: Top 50% APP, OTT, T2G, ARD, Accuracy, Overall Proximity, APP 50-150, BOB%, P4 ; Bottom 50%
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 41/4/7/21
Colonial Results: MC/35
Comp Results: 7/62/16/22/49/7/31/15/3/10
Insights: For as longstanding as Colonial has been on the PGA Tour, Tommy has very limited experience here. He hasn’t played here since missing the cut in 2023, and the only other time he played here was the year prior, when he finished T35 — gaining everywhere in the bag except OTT. In fact, he lost at least 0.5 strokes OTT in both of his starts here. However, he’s been positive OTT every event this year save Valero (which is at a comp course TPC San Antonio), ranking 21st in this field in Accuracy last 24 rounds. Approach play has been above average leading into this event, but he hasn’t had a spike week since February and leaves a bit to be desired with his short/mid irons — ranking outside the top 60 in APP 50-100 and 100-500. Another week in which I’ll be priced out on Tommy in the outright betting markets due to the fact that he just hasn’t been able to get into the winner’s circle in America and hasn’t legitimately contended much at all this year despite multiple top-10 finishes. If you don’t want to play Scottie in DFS (IDK why you wouldn’t), Tommy would be a fine selection to your roster. You’re going to need a Top 5 from him in order to pay his price tag, though.
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Joel Dahmen
Odds: +20000
Stats: Top 125 Exclude ARD (136), PUTT (138), BOB 125150 (126), BOB 150175 (169)
Rank: Top 75% Exclude ARD, PUTT< BOB 150175, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/MC/MC/2
Colonial Results: 19/20/56/68/MC/MC
Comp Results: 5/6/12/12/14/16/22/29/30
Insights: As expected, Joel has been struggling to find his game since the unfortunate meltdown collaspe at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Did not play in the PGA Championship so his last two missed cuts are Myrtle Beach (bombers track) and CJ Cup Bryson Nelson (pitch and putt). Did gain over 2 strokes with the irons at the Nelson; however, that is about the lone green spot on the Joel card these days. 4 out of 6 made cuts at Colonial on more of a plotters course should help, but game not sharp and mental not sharp is a tough player to back on the PGA Tour.
Ryan Gerard
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100 Exclude PROX, BOB 125150, BOB 175200
Rank: Top 75% Across, Top 25% TG, APP, APP 125150, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 8/42/MC/12
Colonial Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/27/37/56/57/71/MC
Insights: People got to see plenty of golf shots from the UNC product at the PGA Championship last week. Held the early Round 1 lead getting to -7 before closing back to back bogeys on the Green Mile had him close with -5. Gerard stayed in the thick of contention all four rounds and gained across the bag over 72 holes including +1 OTT and nearly +1.5 on APP. I was a bit timid last week due to a leaking oil approach game but after last week’s performance that can be put to bed. Add in the confidence that he must feel from the T8 last week and having won on the KFT last June. Gerard could be dangerous this week trying to better his 2nd place finish in Texas this season at the Valero.
Doug Ghim
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB 150175
Rank: Top 75% exclude PUTT, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 52/33/MC/18
Colonial Results: 14/50/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results: 18/18/21/27/33/35/40/42
Insights: Before diving in, I would have thought the Texas Longhorn alum would have a better course history at Colonial. More missed cuts over Top 40 finishes is not a good omen. Everyone knows of the putter struggles (only gained ONCE in all of his 2025 starts (Valspar). Two of his Texas starts he finished around EVEN for PUTT however Memorial Park put up a horrendous -2.26. Props given to Dougie for his Top 50 in season stats for TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, BS & P3 Scoring. This the week he puts stats and putter together? Possible not probable. DFS over betting card if you wanted a recommendation.
Ben Griffin
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 Exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX
Rank: Top 75% Exclude APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX
SG Gains: 3/4 OTT, 2/4 APP, 2/4 ARD, 3/4 PUTT
FORM: 8/46/MC/1
Colonial Results: 52/MC
Comp Results: 8/12/15/17/29/30/31/39/40
Insights: North Carolina alum did the hometown fans proudly last week on a track that I wouldn’t consider to be the best of fits for Ben. Colonial should suit him better this week as his comps suggest; however; poor course history along with an outside Top 125 ranking for the season in the Approach buckets this week and Proximity are enough to keep me off. Happy to see him play well after the Zurich team win but I will be on sidelines if he captures his first individual title this week.
Charley Hoffman
Odds: +17500
Stats: Top 125 Exclude PUTT, BOB 125150
Rank: Top 75% Exclude PUTT, BOB 125150
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: MC/MC/9/MC
Colonial Results: 3/10/13/13/18/24/30/42
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/6/7/8/11/11/11/13/13/13
Insights: Making his 4th Texas start of 2025 (only 13th start on season), Charley is known to make some noise in the Longstar state. Anytime you can have TPC San Antonio as a comp course, you can slate Charley to be a name to consider rostering or betting. Yes the current form makes it difficult to be optimistic; however, the 9th at Corales along with the 67 in Round 1 at Nelson that he has the ability to shoot in the 60s for a given Round or 2. Do I think he puts together 4 of them? No. Round 1 scores of 65,65,66,67 this year should at least spark a little interest into a First Round Leader or 3 Ball match-up this week.
Ben Kohles
Odds: +50000
Stats: Top 125 Across, Top 50: GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, PROX, BS, SCR, BOB 150175, BA, P4
Rank: Top 75% Across, Top 25% GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 150175, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 37/52/MC/59
Colonial Results: 62/MC
Comp Results: 5/7/27/37/41/52/53/56
Insights: Good overall stats, not great, and translated into 2 Top 25 finishes on year but were at the start of the year. Player that I would consider rostering on DFS and a Top 40 bet or tournament match-up; however, he has lost SG Total against the field in 5 of his last 7 starts so thread lightly.
Matt McCarty
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 25 in field in Accuracy, TD, P3; Top 100 in field across field in key season-long stats
Rank: Top 75% across the board
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: MC/15/14/52
Colonial Results: Debut
Comp Results: 16/65/MC
Insights: Not a lot to go from, but has gained T2G in 5 of last 6 events. Only start he did not gain T2G is PGA Champ, where he lost .34 strokes because of his ARD play. He is Top 20 in the field in Accuracy last 24 rounds, and is elite in Rough Proximity (4th in field this season with average/high rough penalty) to get out of trouble unscathed if he does miss the fairway. He has been very good with wedges and short irons of late, as well as putting on anything but Bermuda for some reason. Fresh off the Korn Ferry, Matt hasn’t been in the PGA very long, but he’s already secured a PGA win at Black Desert in the fall and won 3 times on the KFT last summer. I think he is a sneaky longshot bet here (with each-way), especially if he can get hot with the putter.
Maverick McNealy
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 25 in field APP, PUTT, GIR, BOB, P4; Outside Top 75 ARD, Accuracy, OVR Proximity, Scrambling
Rank: Top 50% APP, OTT, T2G, PUTT, GIR, Rough Proximity, APP 100-150, BOB, BA, P3, P4, P5 BOB%
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/60/3/32
Colonial Results: 17/52/MC/20/32/42
Comp Results: 3/3/40/45/1/58/45/39/57/58
Insights: Mav flashed briefly in Round 3 of the PGA Championship, shooting -5 on his first 8 holes, but then fell back to Earth a bit — going +3 over his last 10. His irons let him down over the weekend, as he lost nearly 3 strokes on APP on Saturday and Sunday combined. Just looking at the statistical profile, Mav doesn’t jump off the page as a must-play this week, but 3rd place finishes at Harbour Town and TPC San Antonio this season after winning at Sea Island in November shows he has the overall game to win/contend at these shorter, positional courses. If anything, I think Mav is a great pivot off Rai in DFS and makes a lot of sense as a placement bet or an outright bet with each-ways.
Thorbjorn Olesen
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 25 in field in APP, T2G, TD, GIR, P3; Outside Top 100 Overall Proximity, Rough Proximity
Rank: Top 75% in all excluding Proximity
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4 (does not include T7 stats at Myrtle)
FORM: 33/7/29/5
Colonial Results: Debut
Comp Results: 5/36/14/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Thorn’s game has been in a good place lately, finishing top 35 or better in 4 straight solo events (MC at Zurich). His T2G/ball-striking performances have been notable, as he gained about 8 strokes T2G at Quail and TPC San Antonio. He is fairly accurate off he tee, and when he does miss the fairway, he doesn’t miss by much (9th in Distance from Edge of Fairway last 6 months on difficult to hit fairways). We shall see if the strong Approach play continues when he moves to a course with small greens, but he should find enough scoring here, as he’s Top 40 in the field in Bogey Avoidance and P4 BOB% in his last 24 rounds — as well as Top 20 in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens (by far his best putting surface). Turning a blind eye to his lack of course history given positive T2G numbers at Valero and Valspar this year, 2 comp courses. Expect a couple 3-putts for par, but I think there’s plenty here to warrant a DFS play and a Top 20 bet.
J.T. Poston
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 Exclude APP 125150, BOB 150175
Rank: Top 75% Exclude APP 125150, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/23/18/11
Colonial Results: 10/12/20/41
Comp Results: 3/5/5/6/6/8/10/11/14/14/20/20/21
Insights: North Carolina native put on a show for the locals similar to Gerard and Griffin. JTP has been a name on a lot of people’s radar due to his ability to win golf tournaments and also this season seeming to struggle in a facet of his game he usually excels: putting (lost in 7 straight starts to start the year). He has corrected the putting (gains in 8 straight) to go with a spike in Approach last week (+1.46), is all the evidence you need for his best major finish of his career last week. Harbour Town and RSM comps this week mean that JTP should be in your arsenal and I look for him to WIN this week as long as the irons stay warm.
Aaron Rai
Odds: +3000
Stats: T10 in field in T2G, Accuracy, Rough Proximity, P4 this season; T25 in APP, OTT, GIR, BOB%; Outside T100 P3
Rank: Top 25% APP, OTT, T2G, Accuracy, APP 50-100, Rough Proximity, BOB%, P4; Bottom 25% P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 19/23/38/27
Colonial Results: 32/12/68
Comp Results: 38/40/58/MC/57/48/28/61/MC/29
Insights: Aaron is going to find his way on to a healthy amount of betting cards this week given his elite T2G and accuracy, as well as Par 4 scoring. However, his course history here lacks much time in contention, and if his comp course history is any sort of predictive measure for his success this week, then his ceiling is pretty limited. I worry most about his short game this week, as he is 75th or worse in the field in 3-putt avoidance and scrambling in his last 24 rounds, as well as outside he top 65 in Bogey Avoidance and SG: Putting on fast greens. Also, his approach play regresses a bit when hitting into small greens, as his GIR into those types of greens ranks 51st in the field in the last 24 rounds compared to his season-long GIR rank inside the top 15 in this field. Expecting Rai to be a popular selection this week in betting and DFS, finding a pivot in this range may be of value.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +25000
Stats: Top 100 Exclude APP, APP 125150, BOB 17500, BOB AVG
Rank: Top 75% Exclude APP 125150, BOB 17500
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 54/15/MC/31
Colonial Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 12/40/45/46/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Roy goat makes an appearance this week and stats for the season have peeled off a little after a great first months of the year. A Top 15 at the Nelson and Top 40 at Valero give a couple breadcrumbs to seeing a path to rostering him this week but tough to pull the trigger when he has only gained ONCE (Nelson) with Approach over his last 6 starts dating back to the PLAYERS.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 125 Exclude BOB 125150; Top 20: TG, OTT, TD, BS, ARD, SCR, BOB 150175, BA, P4
Rank: Top 75%, Top 25%: TG, OTT, TD, GIR, APP 125150, BS, ARD, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/5/39/MC
Colonial Results: 27/40/WD
Comp Results: 5/16/27/44/65/75
Insights: Made the most of his first alternate status last week as Satith Theegala withdrew last minute. Shot a brillant 67 on Thursday and solid the rest of the way outside of a shaky putter to a T28 finish. 29 out of 50 rounds this season in the 60s including 4 64s and 9 out of 15 Round 1s in the 60s. Out of the 10 tournaments where he reached the weekend, Alex has finished inside the Top 20 in 6 of those and a T21 and 28 in two others. 70/1 is nice a price tag on a solid Tee to Green player in solid form. Grab all the DFS you want and even a Top 10 or 20 if you are concerned about him closing this one out on Sunday.