2025 CFB Conference Championships - Final Projections, Picks, Analysis & More
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Happy Friday, Clubhouse patrons. First, I want to apologize for no Wednesday update for CFB. It’s been a busy week of content and I do have a 9-5 after all, so time can be limited now that CBB is in full swing. With very little games this weekend, I felt I would just combine everything into one post today since these lines have been stale for the most part all week aside from some movement today now that limits are set.
I’ve done plenty of content across a couple sites this week, so in the essence of time, I’m going to hyperlink all of the articles absent of some of the redundant ones instead of full analysis written out in this post. I’ll make sure to highlight what I’ve actually bet, and what’s more of a lean or parlay filler. We will keep this one in front of the paywall this week for all to consume. Let’s dive in.
Spread Projections vs bet365 as of 3:30pm ET
It’s naive to think we have 2+ points of “value” on most of these games at this point of the season, so remember to just use these basic spread projections as a guideline or a tie-breaker rather than gospel. Of the 9 games listed, be wary of UNLV-Boise projection. The Broncos are getting QB Max Madsen back, and he hasn’t played since November 1. I’ll touch on it later, but only way I lean is Boise there.
Road/Lower Seed Stats
Home/Higher Seed Stats
Friday
Conference USA: Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State
I have an official bet in this game, which I wrote up in my Friday best bet article on Pickswise.
Bet: Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 (-110)
Sun Belt: Troy @ James Madison
Not much in this one. Numbers point to Troy, but I don’t trust the Trojans that much against JMU. Their conference performances have been to erratic for my liking — beating Louisiana and Southern Miss but losing to Arkansas State and ODU with just 10 points scored in those two games combined. Not to mention, Troy has serious OL injuries in this one. Both tackles are expected to miss here, and JMU probably needs to win with a little style in the off-chance Virginia loses to Duke.
American Athletic Conference: North Texas @ Tulane
Famous last words: I love North Texas tonight. I wrote about this one a few different times, including the previously-linked Friday best bet article, and in a few different ways. Take your pick of flavor.
Bet: North Texas -2.5 (-110)
Mountain West: UNLV @ Boise State
It’s always fun to watch the games played on the blue turf. Boise has absolutely owned UNLV in recent years. That’s probably putting it lightly considering UNLV hasn’t beaten Boise in any of their last 9 meetings, dating back to 2011. Only once in that span did the Rebels finish within 1 score of the Broncos, including the 20+ point win for Boise earlier this year. As mentioned before, Madsen is back. Including Boise ML in a parlay is my best recommendation, and I’m considering doing that with Virginia ML, but I haven’t made a move yet. Otherwise, live bet or just watch and enjoy.
Lean: Boise State, Virginia ML Parlay (+129)
Saturday
Big 12: BYU vs. Texas Tech
I don’t have much here either. In theory, Texas Tech should crush BYU at the line of scrimmage like it did when these two played in Lubbock earlier this year. That was BYU’s only loss, but you could argue the Red Raiders left some meat on the bone in that game — which would have made the 29-7 result look even worse. They settled for a few field goals, and they failed to score a touchdown on the goal line right before halftime. Bear might have a tough time here, though I could see BYU getting cute with its play calling. After all, the Cougars probably need to win this game in order to earn a seat a the CFP table.
MAC: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan
These teams met in Oxford at the end of October, and it was WMU that gave up 17 unanswered fourth-quarter points in what resulted in a 26-17 loss to the RedHawks. Miami has a new QB at the helm after Dequan Finn left the program, which has seemingly worked just fine — scoring 82 combined points in its last two games. Revenge angle for WMU for sure, but Miami has the coach (Chuck Martin) that’s been there done that when it comes to winning MAC titles. WMU hasn’t even sniffed the MAC title since PJ Fleck left. This one could go either way, but Miami’s defense is the key. WMU loves to run. If the RedHawks can limit the Broncos in that aspect, they should be in good position to hoist their second conference title in three years.
SEC: Georgia vs. Alabama
Plenty of content on this one. Check out my full-game prediction for the SEC Championship, which includes picks on both the side and total. You can also find my same game parlay for this one. I haven’t made an official move et on this game. I would love to get a 3 on Alabama, but I don’t think it’s coming. Strong lean both Bama and the under for now. Though I’m almost certain I’ll throw half a unit on the parlay.
ACC: Duke vs. Virginia
Here’s my writeup for the ACC Championship.
Lean: Boise State, Virginia ML Parlay (+129)
Bet: J’Mari Taylor 90+ rushing yards (-114)
Big Ten: Indiana vs. Ohio State
This is another one I’ve discussed at length already. Here is my full-game prediction and my same game parlay.
Bet: Under 48.5 (-118) (this moved today. I don’t mind it down to 47 but I wouldn’t go much lower than that. Holding out for a 48 might be worth it)
Bonus
CBB Friday: Cincinnati @ Xavier
Love the Muskies here. Here’s the best-bet write up.
I will aim to get a couple plays up for tomorrow’s loaded Saturday CBB card, but not going to make any promises. I plan to chill, chill, and chill some more tonight. I have to write up Michigan State vs. Duke for tomorrow. So, if anything, check Pickswise tomorrow morning for that if you’re interested.
Not exactly sure how I’m going to navigate bowl season in terms of content, but be sure to keep an eye on our feed for analysis and picks throughout bowl season and the CFB. CBB content will ramp up over the next month or so as well.