Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BMW Results: Finishes at the BMW Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Liberty National, Trinity Forest, Memorial Park, Oak Hill & Dunes Golf and Beach Club
Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +240
Stats: Top 25!!!! exclude DD (60), OTT/DD AVG (31), ARD (26)
Rank: Top 5!!!!! in field exclude DD (12), OTT/DD AVG (7), ARD (9), PUTT (8)
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/1/8/6
BMW Results: 33/2/3/22/20
Comp Results: 2/2/2/2/9/32/35/43
Insights: You can acknowledge Ted Scott’s absence, but the truth is Scottie’s baseline is so elite it’s hard to pass on him over a caddie change alone. Top-10 across every major stat this week except distance (12th), and a proven king on long layouts. 49-man field, there’s still only one Scottie and he will be on the first page on Sunday.
Rory McIlroy
Odds: +700
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (95), PROX (148), APP AVG (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, Top 25 exclude APP, GIR, APP 175200, AP 200+, APP AVG, BS, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARG, 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 7/2/6/19
BMW Results: 11/4/8/4/12/19/5/58/42/4/8/59/1/37
Comp Results: 5/6/7/8/19/43
Insights: Rory was the only top 70 player not to play in the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Instead, he took the week off, avoided the Memphis humidity, and kept his focus on the BMW Championship and ensuing Tour Championship. Given the length of this track, Rory feels like a great course fit and should find success at Caves Valley. Not only is Rory a bomber in every sense of the word, but his iron play has been very good of late, as has his putting - which shows in his results. With 4 straight top 20 finishes and 3 straight top 10s, Rory is knocking on the door of his first win since the Masters. All that you need to do is figure out if you want to take the plunge at shorter than 10/1 odds. Remember, it’s only a 50-person event and all players play all 4 rounds. Given his ability to score on long Par 4s and Par 5s, Rory is a threat to go low at any point this weekend so long as he is able to keep the ball in the short grass and out of the fairway bunkers and rough.
Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (106), P5 (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 9/MC/32/12
BMW Results: 13/15/1/1/12/2/55/9
Comp Results: 9/11/12
Insights: Cantlay’s BMW track record is elite, and the FedEx Cup stretch clearly brings out his best. But this isn’t just a “course history” play — it’s the fact that his irons have been absolutely dialed all season (8th in SG Approach for season), and he showed in Memphis with that T9 that the form is very much intact. The combination of confidence, ball-striking, and comfort in these playoff setups makes another top finish and final group contention more than reasonable.
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Ludvig Aberg
Corey Conners
Rickie Fowler
Chris Gotterup
Kurt Kitayama
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (145), SCR (105), ARD/SCR AVG (125), PUTT (98), BA (98), P3 (121)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARG 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 9/23/8/36
BMW Results: 2 (72-63-71-71, 2024)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: The Big Swede is one of the more popular picks this week, and it makes a lot of sense. The ball-striking is back to the levels we expect to see from him, and this course doesn’t demand much around the green - where Aberg tends to struggle. In fact, he’s 2nd in the field in Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds, in addition to 5th in GIR% in that span. His distance should be a tremendous asset this week, as well as his long iron prowess, and on top of that, bentgrass greens are Aberg’s best putting surfaces. With 3 straight top 25 finishes, including 2 top 10s, Aberg seems to be primed back in Sunday contention very soon, maybe even this week. Sammy had a Swede ticket last week and is running it back again in anticipation of a win being on the horizon.
Corey Conners
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (133), ARD (124), ARD/SCR AVG (101), BOB 200+ (105)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARG 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 50/10/47/WD
BMW Results: 22/10/5/22/33/7
Comp Results: 8/12/21/24/53
Insights: He flashed with his best approach numbers of the season last week, but the short game remains a glaring issue — losing strokes around the green in 8 of his last 9 starts. Bentgrass hasn’t been kind either, ranking 29 out of 47 in this field. The profile just doesn’t add up for a serious run, making it another week to leave the Big Maple on the shelf.
Rickie Fowler
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (104), APP 175200 (144), ARD (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude TG, APP, APP 175200, ARD
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 6/44/28/14
BMW Results: 25/11/8/2/59/4/4/39/41/48/45
Comp Results: 9/19/52/MC/MC
Insights: Showed real poise under pressure to play his way into the field this week after starting well outside the number at season’s end. With another Top-10 needed to keep the Tour Championship dream alive, there’s little reason to expect a let-up. Three Top-5 finishes in past BMW Championship starts have Team Orange feeling bullish about another big week and clubhouse patrons should think about that hefty odd price and Top 10 market.
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (106), APP 200+ (131), PROX (144), APP AVG (90), PUTT (87)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, PROX
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 54/10/3/1
BMW Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/13/18/57
Insights: Cam Young will get plenty of buzz this week after a Top-5 at the BMW and a win at the Wyndham, but a sneaky pivot with a similar power profile — and a recent win of his own — is Chris Gotterup. He’s got the length to take advantage of Caves Valley and proved at the Scottish he can beat elite fields. Live for another strong finish, with an outside shot at putting himself in the Bethpage wildcard conversation.
Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude SCR (99), ARD/SCR AVG (76), PUTT (142)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT, Top 25 exclude APP GIR, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4 (does not include Barracuda)
FORM: 9/31/1/14
BMW Results: 41/19
Comp Results: 4/36/39
Insights: Kitty is a model darling this week, ranking ahead of Scottie Scheffler in Sammy’s early-week model. It makes sense, as K-squared is top 10 in the field in Shots Gained: Approach, Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, Greens-in-Regulation, Proximity, Birdies-or-Better, Bogey Avoidance, Approach 200+, and Approach 150-200 over his last 24 rounds. He has even been a positive putter dating back to his win at the 3M Open, which is not the norm for him. If he is amble to maintain his hot putting performance, his driving distance and recent ball-striking form makes him an interesting pick at Caves Valley.
Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (98), OTT/DD AVG (77), APP 175200 (84), PROX (93), BOB 175200 (92), BOB AVG (76)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25 GIR, BS, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARG 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 38/44/7/65
BMW Results: WD (72-71, 2024)
Comp Results: 13/MC/MC
Insights: Back-to-back weeks of lost irons — 3 of the last 5 overall — and just surviving with the putter to avoid the basement. Add in 42nd of 47 on bentgrass and 44th on long courses, and it’s off the Bobby train for Champ.
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (125), DD (112), OTT/DD AVG (119), GIR (80), BS (123), P5 (80)
Rank: Top 75 exclude OTT, OTT/DD AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 4/4, ARG 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/19/16/13
BMW Results: WD/WD/35/46/3/3/15/47/24/7/20
Comp Results: 2/16/19/23/29/30/43/WD
Insights: Hideki’s been quietly building momentum — strong results in last 4 and approach play that’s been downright sparkling. The driver has been shaky, but Caves Valley’s forgiving fairways should ease that burden. Add in a proven touch on Bentgrass (14th in the field) and a top-10 profile on Par 70 courses, and the stage is set. The clubhouse has been patient — now it’s time to roll Deki out and watch you sweat.
Collin Morikawa
Odds: +3300
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (148), PUTT (133), P5 (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude DD, PUTT, Top 25 TG, OTT, AP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARG 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 22/MC/MC/8
BMW Results: 28/25/44/63/20/48
Comp Results: 26/52/MC
Insights: Collin, Collin, Collin. What happened? Did the cameo in Happy Gilmore 2 get to your head? Why can’t you settle on a caddie? Is it a you problem? I think it might be. Not only is Collin one of the shorter hitters in this field, but his iron play has been a roller coaster at best dating back to the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in May. When he has his irons locked in since then, the putter tends to fail him. It’s a no-win situation with him this year, pun intended. The price is nice, but that’s about the only thing appealing about betting him this week. Could he magically return to form and be in the mix? I guess, but I’m not banking on it.