2025 BMW Championship - Patio Preview, Key Stats, Tournament Trends & Early Models
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Patio Preview
Caves Valley Golf Club
Owings Mills, MD
Par 70, 7,601 yards
Very long course
Tom Fazio design
Only top 50 in FedEx points will play
Everyone plays all 4 rounds
Last hosted event in 2021 when Patrick Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff
Played as a Par 72 around 7,500ish yards
#2 and #12 converted to long Par 4s
Scoring should be down a decent amount due to the change in par
What is typically the back 9 was played as the front 9 for this event and seems to be positioned the same way this year
Greens: Bentgrass
About 5,200 sq ft
Around 12.5-13 on Stimpmeter
Resurfaced after the 2021 event
Rough: Mix of tall fescue & Kentucky bluegrass
Started around 4” in 2021
4 Par 3s
Ranging from 197-245 yards
12 Par 4s
Ranging from 334-525 yards
8 holes 465+ yards
2 Par 5s
590, 599 yards
Distance + Accuracy will be tested
Longer hitters will have to hit into narrower landing areas on multiple holes
Fairway bunkers line narrow landing areas of fairways
Very few fairways are straight
Multiple fairways bend both ways
Tree-lined fairways on the front 9
Differing elevation changes
Strategically-placed bunkers aligned short of almost every single green on the course
Water relatively non-existent on the front 9, but will likely come into play on #11, #12, #13, #17
2021 Round 1 low score: 64 (McIlroy, Burns, Rahm)
2021 Low round of the tournament: 60 (Round 2; Bryson DeChambeau)
2021: 28 players 67 or better during Round 4
Recent Tournament History
2024 Castle Pines: Keegan Bradley -12; 1 stroke over Aberg, Burns, Scott
2023 Olympia Fields: Viktor Hovland -17; 2 strokes over Fitzpatrick, Scheffler
2022 Wilmington: Patrick Cantlay -14; 1 stroke over Scott Stallings
2021 Caves Valley: Patrick Cantlay -27; playoff over Bryson DeChambeau
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Key Stats
Tier 1
Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Distance
Driving Accuracy (Separating instead of using Total Driving so I can see how each player is specifically in each category)
Greens-in-Regulation
Shots Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Tier 2
3-putt Avoidance
Overall Proximity
Birdies-or-Better
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 BOB%
Approach 200+ yards
Tier 3
Approach 150-200 yards
Rough Proximity
Par 5 BOB%
Par 3 Scoring
Sand Saves
Champ’s Course Comps
Liberty National
Trinity Forest
Memorial Park
Oak Hill
Dunes Golf and Beach Club
Last 6 BMW Championship Tournament Trends
Odds
0-25: 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019
26-50: 2021
51-100: 2024
101+:
Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 3/6 (50%) within 2 shots
R1: 3/6 (50%) trailed by at least 4 shots
R2: 4/6 (67%) within 3 shots
R3: 6/6 (100%) within 3 shots
R3: 4/6 (67%) led after 54 holes
Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/6 (100%) with at least 1 Top 25 finish in their last 2 starts
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) with a Top 20 finish in their last start
2/6 (33%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
1/6 (17%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
First Round Leader Tee Splits
Groups 1-12: 83% (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019)
Groups 13-25: 50% (2021, 2020, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.
*due to limited field, field split by pairing/group number
Early Models
