Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
3M Results: Finishes at the 3M Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort, TPC River Highlands and Muirfield Village Golf Club
Sam Burns
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 45/47/17/7
3M Results: 7/12/32 (9 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 1/1/6/12/12/13/15/16/17/17/24/30/43/50/55/81/MC/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Don’t get us wrong, this is absolutely a watered-down field, but Sam Burns as a sub-20/1 favorite? I don’t know, man. This feels extremely pricey. We get it, he finished T2 in Canada and was in the mix at the US Open, but if you remember, he completely collapsed on Sunday at Oakmont (water ball fiasco or not) and he had a real chance to win in Canada before missing very short and makable putt on the first playoff hole. Being in contention certainly helps the cause, but the price is hard to stomach, don’t you think? Can we trust he will keep his tee shots on land? Can we trust his irons enough to be on for 4 full rounds? Can we trust him to hit the pressure putts on Sunday if he’s in contention? Too many questions surrounding this week’s favorite for us to feel confident in a heavily-taxed price.
Maverick McNealy
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 23/22/17/37
3M Results: 3/16/49 (6 of 12 rounds in 60s, Low: 63)
Comp Results: 5/17/30/36/45/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Mav is quietly building one of the most consistent runs on Tour and looking to give Keegan plenty of reasons to select him in September. Strong finish last year (off a missed cut at The Open) along with a Top 5 at a Champ comp course, Champ understands why he’s among the betting favorites this week. Approach numbers from 175+ yards are a concern, but overall his game remains steady. He's played the week after a major all three times this season, with mixed results—T3 at Heritage, MC at Colonial, and T17 at Travelers—mirroring his previous He’s not a lock, but he’s no reason to think Mav isn’t consistent again this week. If books are willing to lay a Gotterup / McNealy match-up fire away with confidence.
Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP (101), APP 200+ (126), PROX (143)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/1/21/26
3M Results: 31/59 (5 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 67)
Comp Results: 35/61/61/MC/MC/MC
Insights: This man is on the heaters of all heaters—Scottish champ, solo 3rd at The Open, and a 10-start stretch most pros would kill for. Off the tee he's been elite, and the flatstick’s been flaming—gaining over 1.5 strokes with the putter the last two weeks. Now the big ask: can he bring that fire stateside to TPC Twin Cities? He's got five rounds in the 60s here, but nothing lower than 67. Game fits on paper, but Champ pulling out the fade card is all you need to know for 2nd betting favorite this week.
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Tony Finau
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PROX, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 56/66/38/31
3M Results: 1/3/7/12/23/28 (17 of 24 rounds in 60s, Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: 5/5/8/8/8/11/13/13/17/25/25/31/32/40/45/66/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Did you know the 3M Open was actually known as the Finau Open? Big Tone has played this event every year since its inception in 2019 and he has yet to finish outside the Top 30. Three of those 6 events resulted in a Top 7 finish, including a win in 2022 when he gained over 16.5 strokes T2G and almost 17.5 strokes Total to the field. Given the sparkling course history, the odds are slightly more palatable than some of the other PGA vets in the field, but there’s not much about Tony’s recent play that inspires or instills confidence in him winning this event again. He doesn’t seem to have any control over his Driver right now, losing 3 or more strokes to the field OTT in 4 straight events. If you are unfamiliar with shots gained metrics, those are MASSIVE losses with the Driver. The irons have been fine, the putting is up-and-down, but the Driver….man it’s a concern especially if you’re paying sub-50/1 for a guy that hasn’t finished in a Top 10 but once this year (Genesis - Torrey). If you look at Sammy’s Show model this week, you will see Tony ranked 118th!!! overall this week due to being outside the Top 100 in more filtered key stats than not.
Rickie Fowler
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP (112), GIR (119), APP 175200 (153), APP AVG (108), ARD (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/18/MC/36
3M Results: 34/38 (2 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 2/2/7/8/9/11/13/13/13/14/20/22/22/36/37/46/52/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Rickie crushed Round 4 of the Open, posting the second-best Sunday score (65) alongside Wyndham Clark and 1 stroke behind Bryson. It wasn’t exactly an anomaly, as Rickie has played solid golf since the Truist. For reference, he has 5 Top 20s in his last 8 events, including 1 Top 10 and 2 missed cuts. Despite the solid form, this is a price that we aren’t comfortable with. Yes, the field is weak. However, the cross-world travel/quick turnaround after Sunday’s Open round is going to add an unquantifiable element into his tournament prep this week. Furthermore, ARG performance has been a strength for him on this solid run, which is an area that is devalued this week. Conversely, his irons have been arguably the weakest part of his game over the last 2+ months, as he has gained more than 1 stroke to the field on Approach just once in that 8-tournament span. Another savvy veteran that feels overpriced by oddsmakers based on name rather than tangible upside.
Emiliano Grillo
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
*SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/40/2/73
3M Results: 2/3/10/24/MC (12 of 18 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 9/11/15/19/22/23/27/32/40/43/48/55/60/60/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Grillo’s recent dip is puzzling, but it may just be lingering burnout from the Deere playoff loss. Lost SG Total in both ISCO and Cuda despite strong form since May raises eyebrows. Still, his track record at TPC Twin Cities—3 Top 10s and a pair of Top 3s—makes 50/1 too tempting to ignore. Boom-or-bust profile fits both FRL and outright markets depending on where the putter lands. Betting on the bounce-back feels sharp in this spot.
Lee Hodges
Odds: +7500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (101)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, DD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
*SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/MC/21/34
3M Results: 1/16/MC (6 of 10 rounds in 60s, Low: 63)
Comp Results: 12/25/26/31/45/63/MC/MC
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Not ready to kick Lee off the Hodges fan club just yet! Sure, the missed cuts across the pond stung, but this is a whole different ballgame at TPC Twin Cities — the site of his breakthrough win in 2023. Look at the categories where he resides in the Top 25% of this field shows he’s dialed in and ready to bring back those winner vibes. At 75/1, it’s a tasty price for a past champ with the tools to light it up early. If your book can find the right dance partner, great spot for a match-up bet and DFS darling.
Max Homa
Odds: +5000
Stats: Outside Top 125!!! exclude OTT, APP 200+, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4
Rank: Bottom 25!!! exclude OTT, APP 200+, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4 (0 Categories in Top 25%)
*SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 45/5/MC/54
3M Results: 3/MDF (5 of 7 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/6/6/22/37/51/54/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Look, Max Homa is a Clubhouse favorite dating back to when he cashed multiple tickets for us back in 2022 and 2023. But that Max is gone. It was awesome to see him spike at the John Deere, but when the pressure was on in Round 4, he faltered. In fact, he lost more than a half-stroke to the field in that round after gaining significantly in the first 3. A T45 finish at Barracuda wasn’t exactly reassuring, either. His Deere performance was his first Top 10 finish since he went T8 and T3 in the Wells Fargo and Masters, respectively, in 2024. In fact, it was only the second Top 20 of his season, which is also littered with 7 missed cuts. Unfortunately, the T5 at the Deere crushed his odds (for whatever reason). Given his profile over the last 15 months, we are passing at 50, as we would need a number nearly double this to invest in the inconsistencies of Max. Sad times for the Homasexuals.
Mark Hubbard
Odds: +12500
Stats: Top 100 exclude TG (113), OTT (109), GIR (104), ARD (125), ARD/SCR AVG (107)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: DD, APP 200+, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
*SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 35/67/33/13
3M Results: 16/MC (3 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 67)
Comp Results: 13/30/37/42/43/46/47/64/71/72/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/WD
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Hubbs is a tough puzzle to solve right now. The upside is there with his ability to score and Top 20 finish in two starts at TPC Twin Cities, but the inconsistency and small sample size make it a gamble. If you’re comfortable with a bit of risk, a modest Top 40 or DFS play could pay off. Otherwise, sitting tight and watching how things shake out might be the smarter move. Either way, it’s one to keep an eye on.lubhouse is curious to see how the Homeless Hubbs 2025 season wraps up after a terrible start to the season and some Sunday contention during the May-June stretch.
Jake Knapp
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100 exclude DD (111), APP 175200 (105), PROX (122), ARD (111)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 22/21/4/27
3M Results: WD (71-68-81, 2024)
Comp Results: 48/MC/MC
Insights: Sharp bettor alert —Knapp’s recent form and adaptability make him a sharp play this week. Pulling a Top 25 at the Scottish while losing strokes on approach shows he’s overcoming challenges and building confidence. Expect him to ride that result, along with strong recent finishes at Deere and Rocket, plus a bomber-friendly course like TPC Twin Cities, make Jake a solid play this week. Price is a bit lower than Champ’s ideal, but weaker field and his proven ability to go low especially when he can use the big stick makes him a well calculated, intelligent play—definitely worth the exposure.
Matt McCarty
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 100 exclude TG (108), APP (119), APP 200+ (108), BOB 200+ (107)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/22/MC/19
3M Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 16
Insights: MM is a guy on which the Clubhouse has had close watch over the last few months. We see the upside with him, but he hasn’t quite shown the ability to put it all together for 4 full rounds. We thought he was well-positioned at the Deere a few weeks ago and he went on to miss the cut because of his horrible putting performance. At the Rocket, he lost significantly OTT. In Canada, he was squarely in the mix with a Top 4 finish, just 2 strokes off the playoff-inducing -18 score for Burns and Fox, but he simply didn’t have “it” on Sunday - losing nearly 2 strokes to the field T2G. It could worse, though, as he was able to gain 2.8 strokes on the greens that round. If he had more Top 10 finishes this season, we would be a little more bullish on Matt this week, but as it stands, a Top 20 placement bet would be the recommended method of attack if you wanted to invest in him at TPC Twin Cities. Keep in mind, he has yet to play here, but has solid finishes at what we consider comp courses.
Keith Mitchell
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100 exclude APP 175200 (105), ARD (153), ARD/SCR AVG (120), P3 (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 50/44/MC/27
3M Results: 5/5/46/66/MC (13 of 18 rounds in 60s, Low: 66, 3 times)
Comp Results: 6/11/17/18/22/48/48/54/56/69/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: If there was a course on the PGA Tour that fits the bill for a player’s profile, TPC Twin Cities and Killa Keith are a perfect match in Champ’s eyes. Highly violatile, birdies a plenty, rollercoaster of scores and a low first round leader. The season stats and weak field justify his place in Champ’s Top 10, but Clubhouse become immune to his weekend dips. Opening rounds of 66-67 at the Scottish show he still has low numbers in the bag just don’t ask for his weekend scorecards. With no pressure and no spotlight, on a course he has shown he can go low, Scott Piercy 2022 feels too good of a match for the story that’s about to unfold.
Taylor Pendrith
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100 exclude ARD (109), SCR (147), ARD/SCR AVG (128), PUTT (106), BA (102)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/13/25/38
3M Results: 5/MC (4 of 6 rounds in 60s, Low: 64)
Comp Results: 12/23/25/33/60/MC/MC
Insights: If TP gets it done at 35/1, Champ’s handing out a new nickname—“Taylor the Canadian Ticket” has a nice ring to it. A missed cut across the pond might’ve been the reset he needed, and with 67% of his rounds at TPC Twin Cities in the 60s, this feels like a comfort zone setup. The flatstick is heating up, and the combo of Houston/PGA T5s shows the ceiling is real. Let the birdie train roll—Taylor’s got winner vibes written all over him this week.
Kevin Roy
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude PUTT (93), BOB 175200 (129)
Rank: Top 75 across, Top 25 exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
*SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 35/MC/3/8
3M Results: MC (73-69, 2023)
Comp Results: 12/MC/MC
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Clubhouse is back in! Crew has read Kevin Roy like a book lately, and the signals are flashing green again. After sweating out Sundays at Rocket and Deere, the recent dip lines up perfectly for a bounce back. His season-long SG profile is rock solid, and if the putter shows up even slightly, he’s got real upside here. At 80/1, the value’s too good to ignore. Due to course history, Champ likes the goat for 4 rounds over a Thursday flash. Top 10 and 20 markets are a go along with a matchup bet vs the right partner.
Alex Smalley
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude APP (77), PROX (96), APP 175200 (105), BOB 175200 (119)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 34/MC/MC/13
3M Results: 12 (69-65-70-69, 2024)
Comp Results: 9/27/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Just not enough to jump on board this time. Smalley’s recent form—losing on approach in 4 of his last 5 and SG Total in 3—raises too many red flags for a course that can punish poor ball striking. Early-season Alex had the tools to contend, but that version hasn’t shown up lately. Until he flashes some signs of life, it’s a pass. Tip the cap if he finds it for a week, but even that doesn’t guarentee a Sunday trophy.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude APP (95), ARD (152), SCR (149), ARD/SCR AVG (151), PUTT (131), BA (76)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/21/4/41
3M Results: MC (66-77, 2024)
Comp Results: 4/39/MC/MC
Insights: Young Thor’s T14 last week while losing strokes on approach proves he’s managing to stay in contention even without his full arsenal. That’s a sign of growth. The off-the-tee game is gaining for days, and he continues to gain both around the green and with the putter. This course favors bombers and rewards aggression, which suits his natural game perfectly. If the irons click even marginally, he’s got a real shot to be there late Sunday. The price isn’t cheap, but in this field it is acceptable. Worth saddling up if you believe.
Kris Ventura
Odds: +20000
Stats: Top 100 exclude TG (110), APP (101), ARD (150), ARD/SCR AVG (123)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD
*SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 41/45/27/34
3M Results: MC/MC (0 of 4 rounds in 60s)
Comp Results: 70/77/MC
*last start Barracuda - no SG metrics recorded
Insights: Ace Ventura has flashed the ability to go low and flirt with the top of the leaderboard, but the inconsistency always creeps in. On a course that punishes mistakes, he’s a pass for us this week. Too volatile to trust. There’s always one round that derails the run, and that margin for error doesn’t fly here. If you’re chasing a spike round, maybe FRL, but even that feels thin. Clubhouse is off the ride this week.
Kevin Yu
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!!! exclude PROX (85), ARD (143), SCR (153), ARD/SCR AVG (148), PUTT (103)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG; Top 25 exclude APP 200+, PROX, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/34/21/25
3M Results: 37/73 (3 of 8 rounds in 60s, Low: 66)
Comp Results: 12/25/49/MC/MC
Insights: Kevin Yu’s putter has turned a corner—gaining in 7 of his last 8 starts (5 of 6 in the U.S.). Around-the-green struggles are less of a concern this week, making him a strong FRL and outright target despite course history. Solid value for his talent. He’s trending in the right direction and this setup gives him room to lean on ball striking.