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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:00AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Nicklaus Results: Results on Jack Nicklaus Design PGA Tour Tournaments

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Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (128), ARD (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, APP 150175, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/9/30/26
Nicklaus Results: 2/13/21/28/31/33/34/61/MC
Insights: Bridgeman checks nearly every box statistically outside of longer approach and around-the-green play. He’s gained on approach in 10 straight starts, off the tee in 6 of his last 7, with the putter in 6 straight, and around the green in 4 of 5. He also closed the playoffs with back-to-back Top 10s and currently sits 29th in the OWGR and 23rd in DataGolf. The problem is simply the price. At +1800, he’s already being treated like one of the clear favorites, and I expect him to be extremely popular in DFS as well. His runner-up at the 2025 Cognizant is encouraging on a Nicklaus design, but it remains his only Top 10 across the comps listed here. Hat Tip territory for me — if he wins, he wins, and we move on without the investment. One wrinkle worth monitoring: Bridgeman ranks 73rd of 81 in early Round 1 scoring but 2nd in late Round 2 scoring among players with data this week. If he opens slowly Thursday, a live number Thursday night or Friday morning could be much more interesting than +1800 pre-tournament.

Jackson Koivun
Odds: +1400
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 24/29/31/1
Nicklaus Results: 52
Insights: There’s no denying the ceiling. Koivun has gained off the tee and on approach in four straight starts, sits 65th in the OWGR and 29th in DataGolf, and has already won seven times in 2026 — six at Auburn and once on TOUR at the 3M Open. The ball-striking has remained consistently positive since that breakthrough, even if the approach numbers haven’t quite reached the level we saw during the win. The concern at +1400 is that we’re paying a premium while the short game remains less predictable. He’s gained around the green and putting in only 4 of his last 7 starts, with just one putting gain over his last three. His lone Nicklaus-design result came at the 2024 Memorial, where he went 72-76-78-80, but that version of Koivun is hardly comparable to the player we see today. A 4th at Silverado during last year’s fall swing is probably more relevant to this setup. At +1400, I need almost everything to line up. The tee-to-green profile says he absolutely belongs near the top of the board, but with limited course-design history and a sporadic putter, I’m more interested in respecting him than forcing the price. Compared with Bridgeman, Koivun has the higher outright ceiling for me, but he’s also asking you to pay even more for projection.

Davis Thompson
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (112), PUTT (128), BOB 150175 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BS, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/8/7/MC
Nicklaus Results: 2/21/27/27/39/47/49/51/56/60/63/MC/MC
Insights: Thompson’s profile is one of the more interesting ones on the board. He ranks Top 25% this week in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, total driving, approach, GIR, proximity, ball-striking and par-3/par-4 scoring. He also gained 3+ true strokes on approach in his last start, an extremely rare threshold, and approach has been elite in two of his last three with OTT also above average or better in two of three. The concern is the short game. Since May, Thompson has gained putting in only 3 of 9 starts and around the green in just 2 of 9, which has kept strong ball-striking weeks from turning into real contention. His Nicklaus-design history is also fairly ordinary outside of the 2023 American Express runner-up, where only one round came on the Nicklaus Tournament Course. Still, +2800 is much more appealing than the prices at the very top. If Biltmore gives us some John Deere / Sedgefield-style characteristics, the fit gets stronger, and when I simplify the model to tee-to-green, Bent/Poa putting, short courses and approach proximity, Thompson ranks 1st. I’m not fully across the line yet, but this is the first name of the three that feels like a legitimate outright decision rather than a respect-and-move-on profile.

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Corey Conners, Doug Ghim, Ryo Hisatsune, Johnny Keefer,
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Course Preview

The Cliffs at Walnut Cove
Arden, North Carolina

• Par 71, 7,249 yards

  • Jack Nicklaus Signature design

  • Located just south of Asheville in the Blue Ridge Mountains

  • Set against the Blue Ridge Mountains and Pisgah National Forest

  • Elevation changes create uneven lies and adjustments to playing yardages

    • Playing at 2,200 Feet of Elevation so will play around 7,000 Yards

  • Bentgrass Greens

    • Lot of Rain so expecting softer conditions

    • Nicklaus Design usually on Faster Speed Side

  • Kentucky Bluegrass Rough

    • Report last week been grown to nearly six inches (Golfweek)

• Inaugural Biltmore Championship Asheville

  • First PGA TOUR event at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove

  • First PGA TOUR event in the Asheville area in more than 80 years

  • No previous TOUR leaderboards or Strokes Gained data to lean on

• 132-player field

  • Top 65 and ties cut after 36 holes

  • First event of the FedExCup Fall

• Driving

  • Nickalus Design means Generous Fairways but Penalize for missing

  • Shorter course should open path off the tee

  • Potential Risk/Reward for Longer Hitters

• Approach

  • Expecting a majority of mid to long iron approaches this week

  • Nickalus Design so precision on Distance Control

• Par 3s

  • Five par 3s

  • All measure 190 yards or longer

• Par 4s

  • Nine par 4s

  • Five measure 450 yards or longer

• Par 5s

  • Four par 5s

  • All measure between 535 and 568 yards

• Around the green

  • Elevation and green complexes could make misses more difficult than the raw numbers suggest

  • Flyovers suggest bunkers, some water and rough when players miss greens (YouTube Flyover)

• Putting

  • Bentgrass with some Poa presence

  • Contoured Nicklaus green complexes should put a premium on finding the correct sections

  • Average Sq. Feet Size not available but Nicklaus design usually 5,000-6,500

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Recent Tour Championship Results

None - Debut Event for 2026

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: DRAW (Knapp vs Griffin)
Wyndham Championship: Sammy Winner (Noren vs Thompson) +102,850

Champ Wins Money Title by $3,161,360
Sammy Wins Weeks Won Title by 5 weeks, 18-13-4

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Final Models

Tour Championship Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Si Woo Kim
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Alex Smalley
J.J. Spaun

Bets

Win
Rory McIlroy +900 (boosted to +1080) - 2u
Sam Burns +1400 - 1.5u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Xander Schauffele | Collin Morikawa

First Round Leader
Rory McIlroy +1200 - 1u
Robert MacIntyre +2500 - 0.50u

First Round 3-Balls (-0.5) Leans (no bets)
Robert MacIntyre +120 > Viktor Hovland
Alex Smalley -105 > Alex Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay -150 > Kristoffer Reitan
Gary Woodland +105 > Ryan Gerard
Rory McIlroy -105 > Xander Schauffele
Wyndham Clark EVEN > Cameron Young
Scottie Scheffler -175 > Matt Fitzpatrick

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Alex Fitzpatrick

DFS Chalk

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Cantlay

DFS Pivots

Sam Burns
Chris Gotterup
Viktor Hovland
Russell Henley
Adam Scott

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of 10:30 EST on Monday, August 24th at Bovada
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tour Champ Results: Finishes at the Tour Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Muirfield Village Golf Club, TPC River Highlands & Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (130), SCR (102), BOB 175200 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, SCR
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/7/9/MC
Tour Champ Results: 21/16 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 3/5/16/22/24/24/25/27/36/39/55
Insights: Sweeedd arrives at East Lake with a profile that still looks dangerous on paper, but I’m struggling to find enough recent evidence to justify the +1600 price. He’s elite in several of the categories that matter this week, ranking 1st in the field in Approach from 200+ yards, 4th in Proximity, 5th in GIR and Birdie or Better, 6th in Total Driving and 9th in Tee to Green. The problem is that the individual pieces haven’t come together at the same time. His approach play has continued to decline since the beginning of July, while last week’s loss Off the Tee was only his second of the season. He did bounce back on the greens at the BMW after losing strokes in his Tour Championship debut, but now we’re waiting for the irons to provide that same spike. East Lake hasn’t exactly been kind to Åberg either. He opened with a T8 last year before sliding backward each round, including losing more than two strokes on Sunday to finish T16. He did gain Off the Tee at East Lake and has shown the ability to contend on similar setups, with a 3rd at the API this year and a T5 at Muirfield Village two years ago, but for a player whose biggest weapons are supposed to be driving and long irons, the recent ceiling simply hasn’t been there. Even with gains across the board at the Open and St. Jude, those performances only produced T7 and T9 finishes. With every player starting at even par and several names entering in better form, I see Åberg starting at a disadvantage this week. I’ll have some interest in round matchups, but at +1600 I’m happy to let others bet on a ceiling we haven’t seen in more than three months.

Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88), OTT/TD AVG (78), GIR (85)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS
Top 25% Rank: ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 1/5/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 8/3 (8 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 2/3/5/9/12/15/17/22/29/34/35/37/56/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels comes into East Lake with as much momentum as anyone in the field after winning the BMW Championship last week, his third victory in his last 10 starts. What was once a quiet season has completely changed with 8 top-15s, 6 top-5s and wins at the Byron Nelson, U.S. Open and BMW Championship. He showed exactly what makes him dangerous at Bellerive as well, grinding through a difficult Sunday before closing with three straight birdies to win by three. With a win this week, Clark would control his own destiny in the FedExCup and add another major piece to an already incredible turnaround. East Lake has also treated him well. Clark gained across the board in both previous appearances, including above-average approach play each time and positive Off the Tee numbers. He finished 2nd after the opening round and sat T4 at the halfway point in his 2024 appearance, while his 2023 debut included the 3rd-best round of the day on Sunday. The course history, recent form and comp results all line up, with a runner-up at the API, 3rd at Muirfield Village and a top-five at the Travelers. At +1600, Clark enters this week without having to prove anything—he’s already shown he can beat the best players in the world when the stakes are highest.

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (93), SCR (77), P5 (80), LR1 (83), LR3 (142)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, PROX, P5, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/66/40/7
Tour Champ Results: 23/9/4/1/14/8/1/7/1/16/2/10 (34 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2020)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/4/5/5/6/6/7/7/8/10/10/11/11/12/13/15/15/17/18/18/19/21/27/32/57/WD
Insights: Rory heads back to East Lake as arguably the most comfortable player in the field at this venue, and last week’s BMW Championship only reinforced the idea that his game is rounding into form at the right time. After looking like he was playing second fiddle to Wyndham Clark for most of Sunday, Rory found something late, going 3-under over a four-hole stretch to tie the lead with seven holes remaining. He had opportunities to take control from there, but the putter never quite cooperated. Still, a 3rd-place finish against this field was another positive step after using the St. Jude Championship to knock off some rust. With just 13 starts this season, a second win of the year and a fourth Tour Championship would be a fitting way to cap the schedule. And then there’s East Lake. Rory has 48 rounds here, three wins, a runner-up and an absurd amount of low-round upside. He’s shot 65 or better five times, including a 64 in the opening round in 2020, a 63 in the third round in 2022 and a 64 in the final round of his 2016 victory. He’s also posted 11 of 12 opening rounds in the 60s, nine of 12 in the second round and seven of his last nine fourth rounds in the 60s. The recent concern is around-the-green play and last year’s putting, but historically those have been far from enough to keep him from dominating this course. Add in his elite driving, 2023 runner-up at the BMW and a win at Bay Hill in 2018, and there are plenty of reasons to believe another fast start is coming. At +900, I’m expecting Rory to be a major factor again this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put himself in position to chase another East Lake victory.

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (130), P3 (111), LR3 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB, P3, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/7/2/18
Tour Champ Results: 4/2/4/5/2/2/7/1 (27 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2019)
Comp Results: 1/8/11/13/13/14/14/14/18/19/20/24/24/24/25/25/29/39/40/51/61/MC/MC
Insights: Xander comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong from tee to green, but the short game continues to be the deciding factor. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in four straight, with the latter two weeks still above average even after the spike at the Rocket Mortgage where he finished runner-up. The concern is everything around those two areas, with losses Around the Green in two straight and putting losses in four of his last six, including last week at the BMW. That’s kept him from putting together four complete rounds despite showing plenty of upside, including three straight Sundays of 69 or better and a 65 at the St. Jude. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Schauffele has been elite here throughout his career, gaining in every start and posting eight finishes of 7th or better, including a win in 2017. He’s gained on Approach and Off the Tee repeatedly at this course, with 84% of his 32 rounds in the 60s and eight rounds of 65 or better, including a 62 on Sunday. His Round 1 history is particularly strong with seven of eight opening rounds in the 60s, while he has posted five straight sub-70 Sundays. The starting-strokes format has arguably worked against him at times so, everyone on level ground has him circled with interest. At +1400, I’m more interested in short-term exposure through Round Matchups, First Round Leader Market and Daily Fantasy while watching the short game before getting involved on the outright.

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +320
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (80), APP 200+ (53), PROX (72), BOB 175200 (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/1/2/4
Tour Champ Results: 4/1/6/2/22/5 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2024)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/1/2/3/3/4/4/6/11/12/13/15/22/24/47/MC/MC
Insights: Scottie comes into East Lake with basically the exact profile you want, and I’m willing to throw last week in the trash. Even hand, foot and mouth disease could only stop him from beating 35 other players over 72 holes, and only eventual winner Wyndham Clark topped him over the final 54 holes after Scottie opened with the 2nd-worst round of the day while clearly not at full strength. With the health news, I think that’s enough to cross off last week and focus on the bigger picture. He’s 1st in Tee to Green, GIR, Ball Striking, Scrambling, BOB, BA, Par 4 and LR2, with 18 of 27 tracked categories inside the Top 5, while gaining OTT and Approach in four straight. East Lake is where the confidence really comes in. This will be Scottie’s 7th straight Tour Championship, and he’s gained on the Greens in back-to-back years after four straight losses while posting 17 of 24 rounds in the 60s, including eight straight entering this week and a low of 63 last year. His 2024 run was ridiculous, going 65-66-66-67 to win by four with the starting-strokes handicap, while he’s also the comp god this week with two wins at Bay Hill, two at Muirfield and damn near a second win at TPC River Highlands if not for a missed Monday playoff putt against Viktor. At +320, there’s obviously not much value hiding in the outright, but keep in mind that nobody outside the Top 4 in the DataGolf rankings has won this event since 2019 (Scottie, Rory, Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick) under that trend. Single bet on Scottie won’t gather much moss or build many farms, but you could turn on the television on Sunday and know you got action cooking with Schef.

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Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, LR2
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BA, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/68/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 13/26 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s.; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 1/5/5/16/22/54/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Akshay makes his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, but the formula for him is pretty simple: as the OTT goes, so does Smokeshow, and East Lake is a place where that will reign supreme again. Unfortunately, he’s only had three top-10 finishes in his last 13 starts going back to Augusta, with the recent MCs at the Rocket and last week both tied heavily to losing off the tee. He has shown spike weeks on Approach at the Rocket, U.S. Open and last week, while the putter was nuclear early in the season, helping him grab his biggest win at the East Lake comp that is Bay Hill. He’s proven he can beat elite fields with four top-10s and three top-5s this season, including TPC River Highlands five starts ago, but the path to another spike week likely requires the Approach and putter to carry him while getting something from the tee. East Lake has at least shown some encouragement, with Akshay going 5-for-8 in the 60s last year and sitting T10 entering Sunday before finishing T13, a huge improvement from his 2024 debut where he only broke 70 once. Last year he was field average OTT and putting but above average on Approach and Around the Green, which is probably the profile he needs again this week. At +9000, I’m not completely dismissing him because we’ve seen the ceiling, but the lack of consistency off the tee is a pretty major question mark on a course where the fairway sets up everything else. If the driver cooperates, the price gets interesting quickly; if it doesn’t, I’m afraid we get another long week for Akshay.

Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (139), ARD (113)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 200+, P5, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, P4, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 9/30/26/28
Tour Champ Results: 27 (67-67-75-71, 2025)
Comp Results: 15/18/31/34/47/52
Insights: Bridgeman comes into East Lake with the putter finally showing signs of life, gaining in seven of his last eight and helping him post his first top-10 since March last week while gaining across the board for the second time in his last four starts. The Approach has been the more reliable piece with nine straight gains, although only one of those has been better than a half-stroke, so the upside there has been limited. We saw both sides of that last week, with Bridgeman ranking 48th in Approach on Friday before bouncing all the way back to 4th on Saturday and finishing 24th on Sunday. The bigger question is whether he can put all four pieces together, but with OTT, Approach, Around the Green and Putting all gaining in three of his last four, there are finally some signs that the complete week could be coming. East Lake is where the concern comes from, but also where I think there’s some sneaky upside. Bridgeman opened his debut last year with back-to-back 67s and was in the mix for a top-10 before a disastrous weekend sent him to the back of the field, including significant losses on Approach and the Greens. His comp-course résumé is still looking for a top-10, with T15 at Bay Hill his best finish, but the fact that he’s already shown he can score around East Lake matters. At +5000, I think he’s an intriguing play because I don’t expect many to be on him, and while it could certainly be a bumpy ride, the pieces we need are starting to move in the right direction. If the putter stays hot and the Approach finally produces one of those spike weeks, Bridgeman has enough elsewhere to make this price interesting.

Sam Burns
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (118), BOB 175200 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PROX, PUTT, BOB, P4, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/3/3/12
Tour Champ Results: 7/12/9/24/18 (15 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/9/12/12/13/15/16/17/17/24/30/36/43/48/49/50/54/55/81/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Sam Burns comes into East Lake as the 3rd-ranked player in DataGolf (see Scottie insights for trend of note) and 9th in the OWGR, and the ball-striking has been trending exactly where you want it, particularly on Approach where he’s gained in four straight and has been one of the elite players in the field since the beginning of June. The putter was only field average last week after four straight above-average performances, while OTT and Around the Green have been a little more of a rollercoaster, but I see those as tweaks rather than an overhaul. The form is also about as strong as you can find for a player still searching for that elusive win, going 28-3-3-12-2-20-4 over his last seven starts, including a top-5 at Bay Hill where he was in the final pairing and just missed the playoff after a brutal lie late Sunday. He’s also coming off another near-miss against Scottie at the St. Jude, going 67-70-62-73 to finish just two back. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Burns is making his 6th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach in each of his last three here, gained on the Greens in four of five, and has consistently gained Off the Tee and Around the Green as well. He’s now shot 9 of his last 11 rounds in the 60s after putting four straight in the 60s here last year, including a 66 on Sunday, and has finished inside the top 12 in four straight appearances. The one thing still missing is the ceiling, as he hasn’t broken 66 in 20 rounds at East Lake, and I suspect that’s going to be necessary to finally get that elusive win. At +1800, I’m interested, especially after being happy to fade him as a popular play last week. He reminds me a lot of Tommy last year — repeatedly getting right there and coming up just short. Maybe 2026 comes full circle and Burns gets it done this week.

Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 17520 (120), PUTT (95), BOB 175200 (97), LR2 (89), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PUTT, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/12/8/28
Tour Champ Results: 2/17/5/7/1/21/21/20 (19 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/4/4/4/5/7/11/12/12/13/13/14/15/15/17/24/30/31/32/35/36/MC/MC/MC
Insights: PC comes into East Lake with the game clicking at the right time, gaining Off the Tee and Approach in four straight and posting three top-8s in his last four starts. The only real blemish has been the putter, with back-to-back losses after elite spikes in three straight starts, including both playoff events, four of his last six and five of his last eight. There are some Billy Horschel vibes here — great run through the playoffs without getting the wins — but Cantlay finally gets a price that reflects the form rather than the name. After sitting in the low 30s last week and easily cashing each-way tickets, +1800 feels much more reasonable for a player who isn’t exactly a bettor’s favorite but doesn’t need to be. The ball-striking is in a great place, and if the putter simply gets back to neutral, I think he’s going to be a major factor. East Lake is where I think the upside gets really interesting. Cantlay is making his 6th straight Tour Championship and 9th overall, and he’s consistently been elite on Approach here while showing above-average OTT play, with Around the Green and Putting the only real areas needing improvement. He’s gained on the Greens before, including last year, and has shown he can go extremely low in Atlanta with four of eight opening rounds in the 60s and a low of 64, while 19 of his 32 career rounds here have been in the 60s. Last year he was 3rd after Thursday and co-led after 54 before the short game imploded Sunday, so we know the ceiling is there. Add two wins at Muirfield Village and multiple top-5s at TPC River Highlands and the comp profile makes sense. I’m leaning FRL over the outright personally, but at +1800 the exposure conversation has definitely changed — the game is clicking, the price finally caught up, and a win here would end a drought dating back to the 2022 BMW.

Alex Fitzpatrick
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB 175200, LR3
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 44/61/61/71
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/7
Insights: A Fitzmagic comes into his Tour Championship debut with the ball-striking numbers to compete but a scoring profile that makes him extremely difficult to trust at +8000. He ranks inside the Top 25% in Approach, Proximity, Ball Striking and several OTT metrics, but sits last in the field in BOB, BOB 175-200 and BOB AVG while also near the bottom in Putting, Par 4 and LR3. The current form isn’t helping either, with four straight finishes of 44th or worse, back-to-back Approach losses and five straight putting losses, including six of his last seven. The summer was impressive with back-to-back wins, but that stretch came back in June and he’s limping toward East Lake compared to the player we saw earlier in the season. The Tour Championship debut and unfamiliar East Lake greens only add to the concern. Fitzpatrick has never played here, and when you combine that with the scoring deficiencies and a putter that has completely abandoned him, I think there are simply too many questions to overlook. His comp-course results of 6th and 7th show the ceiling is there, and this has been far from a disappointing year for Alex or the Fitzpatrick family, but the current trajectory and season-long profile make him a pretty natural fade candidate. Nothing personal, just business — Alex is going on the fade list, and judging by how many subscribers will be rooting against me being right, this could very quickly become a subscriber favorite.

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (55), PUTT (60), BOB 175200 (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 28/12/MC/3
Tour Champ Results: 9/15 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/5/9/9/10/13/14/17/22/27/27/31/36/36/41/49/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: M Fitzmagic comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong on paper, with only nine of our tracked season metrics outside the Top 25%, but the current form is making it difficult to trust all four rounds. The putter has been the consistent piece, gaining in four straight, while OTT and Approach have been much more volatile. Last week was a perfect example: he opened with a 65, ranking 3rd in Approach and 6th Tee to Green, before falling off a cliff Friday with the 2nd-worst OTT performance and dead-last Approach round in the field. The weekend didn’t get much better with both areas near the bottom again despite the putter staying warm. That’s been the story lately — spikes for a round or two, but not enough consistency to stay within striking distance. East Lake is at least a place where we’ve seen the upside. Fitzpatrick is back at the Tour Championship for the first time since 2023, when he flirted with the top 10 all week after opening with a co-leading 64 but couldn’t maintain it, and he gained OTT, Around the Green and Putting in both of his previous appearances. He’s also got four top-5s on the comp courses, although the best three came 6-7 years ago, so let’s not get too carried away with the Fitzmagic time machine. The Travelers win this year gives me plenty of reason to like the setup, and his season-long profile remains strong enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if he spikes again. At +2000, though, I’m not fading him, but I’m not betting him either. If Fitzmagic comes out Thursday and he’s sitting atop the leaderboard again, I’ll tip my cap, but until the OTT and Approach stabilize, I’d rather hold him off my lineups than chase the next spike.

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (105), BOB 175200 (113), LR1 (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, P4, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/7/4/13
Tour Champ Results: 1/20/6/16/11 (12 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/10/10/11/13/14/15/16/20/20/26/46/49/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Tommyyyyy comes into East Lake with a profile that still screams contender on the right side of the card, ranking inside the Top 6 in the field across every one of his Top 25% categories while gaining Off the Tee in three of four and Approach in four straight. The problem is the recent form and the putter, which has been cold since his ridiculous run at Royal Birkdale, with only one gain in his last four. Last week was especially concerning as he lost OTT, Around the Green and Putting for the first time in six starts, although he still managed two rounds in the 60s before 74-70 on the weekend. It feels very different from the version that arrived at East Lake last year off a T3 at St. Jude and T4 at the BMW, and I’m not sure we can bank on another massive spike simply because it happened last year. East Lake is obviously where the temptation comes from. Fleetwood has gained OTT and Approach in all five of his appearances here, Around the Green in four of five and the Greens in four of five, and last year’s 64-63-67-68 was an absolute elite spike that produced his first Tour Championship win. He’s making his 4th straight appearance and 6th overall with 12 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a low of 63, so the comfort level is undeniable. The comp résumé is strong too, but at +1800 I’m not sure we’re getting the right price for the version of Tommy arriving this week. Could he find the magic again? Absolutely. But at 18/1, this is one where we smile if it happens rather than allocate money to make sure we’re part of the entertainment.

Ryan Fox
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude BA, P5
Top 75% Rank: OTT, APP 200+, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/58/1/30
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 14/17/20/24/27/30/66/MC
Insights: Ryan Fox comes into East Lake as the No. 30 player in the field and The Open Champion, but the profile is a little too volatile for me to get carried away at +9000. The longer course should suit him, and he ranks well in some of the scoring metrics, but accuracy with the driver around East Lake is no small concern with this rough. He’s gained Approach in eight of his last nine, while OTT has been much more of a rollercoaster and the putter has gone cold since his Birkdale win, including losses OTT and Putting last week. With only two rounds in the 60s since the Open and a Tour Championship debut ahead, I think the driver will tell the story for me this week. The comp-course résumé doesn’t give me much reason to force it either, with no top-10s and a T14 at Bay Hill back in 2023 his best finish. That said, there’s something interesting about getting Fox into an event where everyone starts from scratch and he gets to play spoiler as the No. 30 seed, especially with Top 10 ranks in BOB 175-200, LR1 and LR4. I’d rather target him selectively than make him a full-week bet — if the current form looks good, a Round 1 sprinkle makes sense, or I’m perfectly happy waiting to see where the number is for Round 2/4. Daily Fantasy is also interesting simply because I doubt many will be on the Kiwi. There’s upside here, but no need to overdo the Fox exposure this week.

Ryan Gerard
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (123), ARD/SCR AVG (106), BOB 200+ (101), LR1 (102)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, LR1
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/MC/8
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/23/44/54/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard comes into East Lake with a profile that is good at most things but elite at nothing, which is a tough place to start when we’re dealing with the best 30 players on Tour. He’s the first player I’ve profiled without a Top 25% category in the field, and his best season metrics — TD, PUTT, BOB, P4 and LR2 — only translate to 11th, 8th, 12th, 13th and 15th here. The current form does give me something to work with, gaining OTT and Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has shown three elite spikes in his last 10 starts. The Memorial runner-up proves he can hang on a big-boy track, but the Approach has been mostly average since July and the putting has been too inconsistent to trust week after week. East Lake is a different animal, and with this being his debut, I’m not looking to force much at +4500. We’ve seen the ceiling when the pieces line up, but even with near-elite OTT play in two of his last three starts, he’s gone 16-24-MC because the Approach and Putting haven’t followed. Last week was another example, going 39th-3rd over the first two rounds before squandering it, including a 40th on Approach in Round 2 and never cracking the Top 25 in Approach for a round. At +4500, I think the number is tempting enough to at least acknowledge the upside, especially if you believe another putting spike is coming, but I’m not seeing enough here to make him a priority outright. If anything, this is a player I’d rather target for a Round 1/DFS dart than commit to for four rounds, and at this price I’m comfortable letting someone else chase the spike.

Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (117), APP 200+ (77), PROX (114), APP AVG (81), LR2 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/30/MC/18
Tour Champ Results: 10 (70-63-69-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 18/27/30/35/61/MC/MC
Insights: Gotterup comes into East Lake with the driver in a really good place, gaining Off the Tee in four straight and showing elite upside there since his win at the John Deere, but the rest of the game has been much more of a rollercoaster. The biggest concern is Approach, particularly the longer irons, where the profile doesn’t stack up with this field, and missing both fairways and greens around East Lake is not going to make life easier. He lost on Approach last week but was bailed out by an elite putting performance, which isn’t a dice roll I want to rely on week after week. He did gain across the bag at the St. Jude but only managed a T30, while his recent Approach numbers have been all over the place. The ceiling is absolutely there — three wins this season on three different types of venues and a sneaky top-5 last week — but getting all four rounds to cooperate remains the question. East Lake is at least a place where we know he can score. Gotterup made his Tour Championship debut last year with a 70 before exploding for a 63 on Friday, moving inside the Top 10 and just six back entering the weekend, before finishing T10 after three of four rounds in the 60s. His T18 at Bay Hill is his best comp finish, so the course history isn’t screaming at us, but there’s enough here to believe another spike is possible. At +2200, I’m not ready to completely dismiss the outright given the season he’s having, but I prefer the shorter-term angles. First Round Leader and Round Matchups are where I’d rather have exposure, with the +2200 outright more of a dark-horse dart if you want to get some value in the 20-range.

Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 200+ (146), BOB 200+ (143)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, TD, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/30/20/9
Tour Champ Results: 2/4/14/3/12 (14 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2025)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/6/6/6/7/11/12/13/16/19/19/22/27/29/32/33/45/48/49/53/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russ comes into East Lake with the putter in a really good place, gaining in seven of his last eight starts, but the rest of the profile is a little harder to trust at +2500. Approach has been around field average since his win at Colonial, maybe a tick better but nothing close to the level needed to separate in this field, while Around the Green has been a consistent negative with losses in six of his last eight. OTT has been more of a rollercoaster, with spikes at the St. Jude and Travelers but not enough consistency to justify the price and popularity. The season-long numbers also tell a similar story, with Scrambling, Putting, Ball Avoidance, Par 4 and LR4 his only Top 25% categories in this field. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Henley is making his 4th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained here repeatedly, with 14 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a ridiculous low of 61 last year when he opened as the FRL and co-led into the weekend. He’s also finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last four appearances, including T2 last year, and has shown he can get hot late with a 62 on Sunday in 2024 and a 65 that was the low round of the day Sunday in 2017. The comp résumé is strong too with a win at Bay Hill, T2 at TPC River Highlands and a Top 5 at Muirfield Village that included an FRL last year. At +2500, I understand the appeal because the East Lake history is undeniable, but I’m struggling to pay this number with the Approach and Around the Green trending the wrong way. I’d recommend staying on the sidelines or short term slips over the full outright ticket.

Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude LR1 (134)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, GIR, APP 200+, BA, P4, P5, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/19/MC/13
Tour Champ Results: 12/12/1/15/5/20 (19 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/10/11/13/15/20/25/29/36/40/42/47/48/49/51/54/WD/MC
Insights: Viktor Hovland comes into East Lake with a profile that still makes plenty of sense, especially at +2800 for a player who is still under 30 and already a Tour Championship winner. He’s making his 7th straight appearance and has gained Off the Tee and Approach in all six starts here, Around the Green in four of six and Putting in four straight, with 19 of 24 rounds in the 60s. The weekend scoring is particularly impressive, with 11 of his last 12 weekend rounds in the 60s and five straight Sunday rounds in the 60s, including two 63s. The current form is a little more of a mystery, though, with a T13 last week after a strong Friday where he was 2nd in Approach and 4th putting before falling into the 40s in Approach over the weekend and struggling across the board Sunday outside of the Greens. That’s the good and bad of Viktor right now — the price is appealing because we know the ceiling is there, but he could also put himself behind the pace early. East Lake is where I keep coming back for the confidence. Hovland won here in 2023 by five with the handicap after sharing the low score without it, and he’s repeatedly shown an ability to make a run late with 131 weekend scores in both 2024 and 2025. Add the Muirfield Village win and the Monday playoff victory over Scottie at TPC River Highlands this year, and the comfort level on the comp courses is pretty clear. At +2800, I’m not ready to dismiss him, especially with the combination of current upside and ridiculous East Lake history. I’ll have some placement/FRL exposure, but I also don’t hate waiting to see where he sits after 36 holes. You’ll take a hit on the odds, but if Viktor puts another slow start together, I’d rather pay up for evidence than force it early.

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (57), PUTT (106), LR1 (72), LR4 (62)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/2/42/6
Tour Champ Results: 20/10 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 4/9/10/11/13/13/15/18/19/25/26/26/29/30/31/31/39/41/44/49/63/64/74/MC/MC
Insights: SWK comes into East Lake off a stellar statistical season, sitting 5th in the FedExCup and 11th in DataGolf, with Top 25% numbers across nearly every key ball-striking and scoring category. He’s gained Off the Tee in three straight and Approach in four straight, while Around the Green has been a positive in three of four, and the comp profile makes plenty of sense with three top-10s at Bay Hill, including this year. This is exactly the type of setup where Si Woo’s length, long irons and ball striking can shine, and the current form has shown the ceiling with a runner-up at the St. Jude and T6 at the Travelers. The only real concern is the putter, which ranks well down the field and has been the weakest part of the profile all season. East Lake is where I have a harder time getting there at +2500. This is only his 3rd Tour Championship appearance and first since 2023, with gains in only 50% of his East Lake starts Off the Tee and Approach, although he has gained on the Greens and Around the Green in every appearance. He did backdoor a Top 20 in 2023 with 68-66 on the weekend and showed the ability to close here on debut in 2016 with a Sunday 65 that vaulted him from T20 into the Top 10. The upside is absolutely there, and I’ll be rooting for him to cap off a great statistical season with a win, but the lack of reps around East Lake combined with a price that hasn’t really moved from the last few weeks is where I’m getting off the Si Woo train. Happy to tip my cap if he gets it done, but I’m not forcing the exposure.

Tom Kim
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 200+ (135), LR4 (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/12/5/20
Tour Champ Results: 20 (67-70-72-67, 2023)
Comp Results: 2/34/38/43/45/52/MC/MC
Insights: Tom Kim comes into East Lake after a clutch run down the stretch to get himself back into the Tour Championship for the second time, and the current ball-striking gives him at least something to work with. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in 13 consecutive starts, although the Approach number finally dipped a bit last week. Around the Green has been a rollercoaster all year, while the putter has been inconsistent as well, so seeing three straight putting gains is at least a welcome sign. His season profile is actually pretty strong in Approach, GIR, Proximity, Scrambling, Ball Avoidance and Par 4 scoring, but there isn’t much separation from the field in the areas that tend to create the big spikes. East Lake is where I struggle to see the path. Kim is making his 2nd Tour Championship appearance after finishing 20th in his 2023 debut, where he gained on and around the Greens but couldn’t put together enough elsewhere to contend. The comp résumé is even thinner, with a runner-up at TPC River Highlands — yes, the one where he lost to Scottie in the playoff and the protest/wedge situation did absolutely nothing to help my bet that week — as the only real result worth mentioning. At +5000, I appreciate the price and the fact that he’s already accomplished a lot by getting back here, but I just don’t see enough here to expect much this week. He’ll need another level of Approach and a sustained putting spike to beat this field, and I’m not willing to bet on that happening for four rounds.

Min Woo Lee
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (112), PROX (121), LR1 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4, LR1
Top 25% Rank: OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/55/59/2
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/9/44/49/62/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: MWL comes into East Lake as another player limping toward the finish, with three straight losses on Approach and none of the above-average OTT or Putting play we saw earlier in the playoff run. That’s a major concern for a player whose season profile is built around the driver, Around the Green and birdie-making, especially when the Approach, GIR and Proximity numbers already leave him toward the bottom of this field. The runner-up at the Scottish Open show the ceiling is absolutely there, while the T6 at Bay Hill gives him at least one strong comp result this year, but most of the better work came earlier in the season. Right now, the form simply isn’t matching the player we saw when he was at his best. East Lake is another layer of uncertainty with this being Min Woo’s debut. The comp résumé is thin beyond the T6 at Bay Hill, with the next-best result being the 2023 Travelers, and the current stretch makes it difficult to expect another spike against this field. At +6000, the number is tempting but I’m comfortable letting him cook other lineups and bank accounts this week. The driver and putter would need to return to their playoff form while the Approach needs a complete turnaround, and that’s too many things I need to go right at once.

Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Top 75% Rank: OTT, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/WD/28/3
Tour Champ Results: 17/17 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 10/11/16/17/20/24/36/MC
Insights: Return of the Mac comes into East Lake after a solid week following the withdrawl at the St. Jude, losing only a little Around the Green while gaining Off the Tee, Approach and Putting. He’s now got three top-10s in his last five starts and has gained on the Greens in six of his last seven, while last week marked his best OTT performance since April. The question is whether that was the start of something positive or simply another flash from a player who has been inconsistent for much of the year. His season profile actually has plenty to like, with strong OTT, Around the Green, Scrambling, Putting, BOB and late-round numbers, and we’ve seen the ceiling as recently as TPC River Highlands five starts ago where he finished inside the top 10. East Lake is where I can see the argument for a little exposure. This is his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, and he’s gained Off the Tee, Around the Green and Putting in both previous starts. He opened last year with 64-66 and sat just three back after Friday before a brutal Saturday dropped him out of contention, while his debut in 2024 featured a Sunday 64 that backdoored him into the Top 20. There’s enough history here to believe he can score, but at +4500 I’m not looking to force the outright. A little DFS and a Round 1 matchup makes sense, and I don’t think a Top 10 placement is out of reach if the good version of Bobby Mac shows up. Sometimes that’s what we value at the Clubhouse — betting on the player we know he can be rather than simply reading directly from the stat sheet.

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (95), OTT/TD AVG (81), GIR (90), BS (78), PUTT (82), BOB 175200 (88), BOB 200+ (98)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 28/7/7/5
Tour Champ Results: 29/9/11/26/15/9/4/26/5/12/22 (20 of 44 Rds 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2016)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/6/8/12/13/13/14/16/18/20/21/22/22/23/30/33/38/41/43/45/45/49/56/62
Insights: Hideki comes into East Lake with the Approach game continuing to be the reason I can’t completely quit him, gaining in eight of his last 10 starts and producing another elite spike last week. The driver has also quietly come around with seven straight gains, but the short game has been the issue, losing both Around the Green and Putting in each of his last two starts and ending a run of four straight top-10s. Last week the irons finally woke up after a sleepy opening round, but the putter was cold all week and the short game again kept him from turning another strong ball-striking week into a real result. At +3000, there’s still enough number here to make the temptation real, especially with the way he continues to tease me throughout the year, but the question is whether we’re betting on the player or waiting for all the pieces to finally click at the same time. East Lake gives me some history but not enough confidence to call it a strength anymore. Deki is making his 12th Tour Championship appearance and 3rd straight, with a first-round lead in 2016 and a low of 63 in 2022, but he’s lost on the Greens in four of his last five starts here and has gained on Approach in only half of his last four. His best finishes are getting further into the rearview mirror, while even the comp résumé is built more on older results, although a win at Muirfield Village is certainly nothing to shake a stick at. He’s also shown the ability to bounce back from terrible rounds — 76-69, 77-65, 75-66 and 75-68 — so I’m not completely dismissing the possibility of another Hideki spike. There are better East Lake histories and more consistent current profiles in this field, and I’m leaning toward last week being the final betting stop for me this year… but if you know me, I may just have to dabble one more time. Check back tomorrow.

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (112)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/52/18/3
Tour Champ Results: 19/2/6/21/26/6 (15 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2023)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/5/9/13/20/36/42/48/64/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Collin comes into East Lake with one of the strongest ball-striking profiles in the field, and the Approach game is once again doing the heavy lifting. He’s gained on Approach in four straight and Off the Tee in six straight, while ranking top 5 in the field in Approach, GIR, Ball Striking, BOB and multiple scoring categories. The concern is everything around that elite iron play, with Around the Green losses returning in five of his last six and the Greens continuing to be a weakness at East Lake, where he’s lost putting in four of six starts. The encouraging part is that the putter has been warmer recently, and if he can simply avoid giving those gains away around the greens, the rest of the profile is more than good enough to contend. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Morikawa is making his 7th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach and Off the Tee in all six previous starts, with a 61 to open 2023 and the low 72-hole score in 2024 when he went 66-63-67-66. He’s also got the type of comp résumé I want to see here with a win at Muirfield Village, two runner-ups there and another runner-up at Bay Hill, while last year’s T3 after Thursday shows how quickly he can put himself into the mix. The 2025 version is the concern after falling from T3 after Round 1 to outside the top 20, but he arrives off a T4 at the BMW with strong ball-striking and a better putter. At +2000, this feels like the kind of price where I’m willing to give Morikawa another look. If the putter stays respectable and the short game doesn’t become the story, the path to another East Lake run is very clear.

Kristoffer Reitan
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, P3, LR2
Top 75% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/58/18/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/22
Insights: Kristoffer Reitan comes into East Lake without a single Top 25% ranking, and playing as a debutant makes the profile even tougher to trust. His season has been driven largely by Off the Tee and Putting, but neither has been reliable enough to make me comfortable against this field, while the Approach game has gone backwards with losses in four of his last five starts. He’s still looking for his first top 10 since the Memorial, and while the two wins this year at the Truist and Nedbank along with four PGA Tour top 10s prove there is plenty of talent here, those spikes have generally required the Approach game to show up rather than simply leaning on the putter. First time around East Lake is the biggest issue for me. His comp résumé is only a T6 and T22, and asking him to beat this group at +6500 while relying heavily on the putter and driver feels like a top-20 hope rather than a true contender. We saw the Approach spike at the Truist and Muirfield Village that helped create this season, but I’m not expecting that to suddenly become the baseline this week. At +6500, I’m happy to fade and pay to see it — if he finds another spike week, congratulations to those who got there, but I’d rather look for a Round 1 or DFS angle than force outright exposure.

Justin Rose
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, LR2
Top 75% Rank: TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BOB, P5, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/39/MC/25
Tour Champ Results: 21/26/4/10/2/4/6/2/20/15/11 (28 of 44 Rds in 60s; Low: 65; FRL: 2012)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/3/3/4/6/8/8/8/9/9/9/12/13/13/13/14/15/19/24/25/30/36/44/56/63/68/68
Insights: JR comes into East Lake as another player without a single Top 25% ranking, but unlike some of the other players in that group, there is still plenty of quality in the underlying profile. He sits top 10 in the field in Approach and Ball Striking and top 15 in Driving Accuracy, GIR, Approach from 175-200 and Late Round 1 scoring, while the irons have been elite over his last two starts. The issue is getting everything else to cooperate, with the putter cooling last week and Off the Tee and Around the Green remaining inconsistent since the U.S. Open. At +5000, the number is interesting for a player with this much East Lake history, but I don’t need to dip into the Rose fund this week without seeing more current-form evidence. East Lake is where the argument for Rose gets much stronger. He’s making back-to-back Tour Championship appearances after not playing here since 2019, with two runner-ups and seven of 11 Round 1s in the 60s. He’s finished inside the top 10 here even when the putter hasn’t cooperated, including a T2 in 2018 after sitting just one back into the weekend and another T2 in 2012 after leading into Sunday. The Memorial win and multiple strong Bay Hill finishes also fit the profile, but the Around the Green game needs to get back toward field average if he wants to turn another East Lake top-20 type week into a top 10. For me, this is more of a Daily Fantasy or Round 1 matchup look than an outright at +5000. The history is strong enough to respect, but the current form hasn’t given me enough reason to expect the full Rose package for four rounds.

Adam Scott
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (105), PUTT (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, P5, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 16/12/9/66
Tour Champ Results: 4/25/6/8/9/14/19/6/27/26/1/7/21 (30 of 52 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 5 times)
Comp Results: 2/3/3/4/4/5/9/11/12/12/13/13/16/19/25/26/29/30/30/31/31/33/35/35/36/39/41/46
Insights: Adam Scott comes into East Lake with enough ball-striking form to understand why he’ll be a trendy pick this week. He’s gained Off the Tee and Approach in three of his last four, while the putter has also shown signs of life during the playoffs, and the season profile is stronger than the price might suggest with top-25% numbers in GIR, Approach from 175-200, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Par 5 scoring and Late Round 4. The Around the Green game remains the obvious weakness, but this is a player who has quietly put together two top 6s in his last three starts and seven top 10s overall this season. At +5500, I understand the appeal and think there’s enough here to take a closer look rather than simply dismissing the 45-year-old. East Lake is where the real intrigue comes in. Scott has 52 rounds here with six top-10 finishes and a win in 2006, along with five other top-5s, so there is absolutely a path even if the most recent strong finish came back in 2019. He opened 2024 with 66-67-68 and sat just five back entering Sunday, while his 65 on Sunday in 2019 nearly produced another top 5. The history also shows how quickly he can get into contention, with 10 of 13 opening rounds in the 60s and seven of 13 Sundays in the 60s. At +5500, this is one where I can see the argument for a placement or DFS exposure, especially if the playoff ball-striking carries over. The question is whether the Around the Green game can stay out of the way, but if it does, Scott has more East Lake equity than most of this price range.

Alex Smalley
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100! exclude P3 (123), LR4 (107)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/7/53
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/38/47/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Alex Smalley comes into East Lake with a profile that is quietly strong where it matters most, ranking top 10 in the field in GIR, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average and Par 4 scoring. He’s gained Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has also gained in three straight, making the 16-24-7 stretch through the first three playoff events more interesting than the ugly 53 last week. The concern is Off the Tee, where he’s been closer to field average, along with poor late-round scoring numbers that make me much more interested in how he starts than how he finishes. If the driver finds the form we saw earlier this season, the elite Approach game gives him enough ceiling to make some noise. The unknown at East Lake is both the appeal and the concern. This is Smalley’s debut, so there’s no course history to lean on, while his comp résumé is limited to a T9 and a lot of misses. We’ve seen the formula work before, though, with the 2023 Travelers T9 coming from above-average OTT, elite Approach and a field-average putter. At +6500, I’m intrigued enough to get involved but not enough to blindly trust four rounds. I’d much rather play the first-round matchup and see what the game looks like before adding more exposure. An each-way or Top 10/Top 20 sprinkle is interesting, but if the driver shows up early, that’s when I’ll decide whether Smalley deserves more of the bankroll.

J.J. Spaun
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (122), PUTT (132), P5 (108), LR2 (129)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, P5, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/34/50/40
Tour Champ Results: 25 (68-71-71-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 7/12/14/30/30/41/47/37/49/52/52/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JJS comes into East Lake looking much better in spots than his recent finishes suggest, but the consistency just hasn’t been there. He’s gained Off the Tee in three of his last four, Approach in three of four and Around the Green in all four, while the putter produced his 2nd-best performance of the season at the Travelers. The problem is the pieces haven’t arrived together — he gained across the board at the Open but finished T40, opened 67-67 at the Rocket before posting 142 on the weekend, and sat 3rd into the BMW weekend before 72-73 dropped him down the board. At +4000, that’s enough to make me interested, but not enough to trust him for 72 holes when the recent results continue to tell the same story. East Lake is another reason I’m leaning toward shorter-term exposure. Spaun made his debut here last year and went 68-71-71-66, with that Sunday 66 showing there is some scoring upside, while his T7 at TPC River Highlands this year gives him another comp result to work with. But with only one start here and no top 10 since June, I’d rather bet on the player hiding inside the round-by-round numbers than the final results. +4000 is tempting, but I’m leaning First Round and Matchups over the outright. He’s a potential DFS strategy play because most of the field will look at the recent finishes, while the round scores suggest he’s closer than the results indicate.

Gary Woodland
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, P3, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/42/10/MC
Tour Champ Results: 15/11/19/10/9/22/13 (13 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/5/5/6/16/20/20/21/22/23/24/27/33/36/36/38/48/49/52/57/63/71/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Garyyyy comes into East Lake with one of the more interesting comeback stories in this field, and honestly, if there were ever a Comeback Player of the Year case, it has to start here. He’s coming off a T4 and T10 in two of his last three starts, gained in all four putting rounds last week and ranks 1st in the field in Late Round 1 scoring while sitting top 25% in OTT, Total Driving and Approach 200+. The driver has been the biggest weapon, and even last week he was able to stay in contention despite not having his best Sunday off the tee. The Around the Green and scoring profile keeps me from going all-in, but there is enough here to believe this version of Gary is capable of doing more than simply making up the numbers. East Lake gives me another reason to take a look. This is his 8th Tour Championship appearance but his first trip around East Lake since 2019, and he’s got four top-6 finishes here — although all came between 2017 and 2022 — including a T3 after Round 1 in 2018 and multiple backdoor pushes from strong weekend rounds. He has never put three rounds in the 60s here, but he’s also shown the ability to find a low one, including a 63 in 2014. At +5000, I’m not jumping on the full-tournament ticket, but I recommend grabbing some exposure. Round matchups and DFS make sense to me and another guy to slim down in the short-term bucket.

Cameron Young
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (113), BOB 200+ (54), P5 (59), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5, LR2, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 37/39/61/8
Tour Champ Results: 4/19 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 3/9/10/13/25/36/46/47/50/52/60/60/MC/MC
Insights: CY comes into East Lake with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field, ranking top 5 in Total Driving, OTT/TD, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Scrambling, Around the Green and Late Round 1 scoring. The problem is the timing, with the playoff run showing a clear drop-off, particularly with the irons and putter, while he’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Around the Green in three of four. That’s the frustrating part at +1800 — the season-long profile screams contender, but the current form makes me want a little more number before fully buying in. Still, this is the same player who won twice in Florida, nearly won The Open and has put himself firmly into the Player of the Year conversation, so I’m not willing to completely dismiss him. East Lake gives me enough confidence to keep him in the mix. Young finished 4th last year after a 19th on debut, opening with a 129 thanks to the low round of the day on Friday with a 62 and putting himself just two back into the weekend before a Saturday 71 knocked him off pace. He’s also got three top-10s on the comp courses, led by a Bay Hill result this year, so there is a clear path for the profile to work. The issue is simple: he’s shown two great Sundays here but has struggled on Saturdays, and he’ll need four good rounds to win this thing. At +1800, the current form makes it a hat tip over a betting tip. Possible? Absolutely. Bettable? Ehh.

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Patio Preview

East Lake Golf Club
Atlanta, Georgia

• Par 70; 7,440 yards

• 30-player field; No Cut

• FedEx Cup finale

  • All players start at even par with no staggered scoring

  • Lowest 72-hole score wins the TOUR Championship and FedExCup

  • $10 million to the FedExCup champion

• East Lake has hosted the TOUR Championship since 2007, but the recent restoration means older course history needs to be viewed through a slightly different lens.

• Andrew Green restoration of the original Donald Ross design

  • Fairways reshaped to create more movement and strategic lines

  • Bunkers rebuilt and repositioned

  • Greens completely rebuilt and reshaped

  • More aggressive slopes, runoff areas and varied hole locations

  • Course now places greater emphasis on shot shape, positioning and ground game

• Fairways: Zorro Zoysia

  • Recontoured to encourage more ground movement

  • Can become particularly quick when conditions are dry

• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

  • Larger than the pre-restoration surfaces

  • More perimeter/runoff areas and substantially more variety in hole locations

• Rough: Bermuda

  • Misses are more consequential because of the reshaped greens and surrounding recovery areas

• 4 Par 3s

  • No. 2: ~200 yards

  • No. 9: ~260 yards

  • No. 12: ~225 yards

  • No. 16: ~215 yards

• 12 Par 4s

  • Roughly 390–500 yards

  • Several now emphasize angle and positioning rather than simply distance

• 2 Par 5s

  • No. 1: ~535 yards

  • No. 6: ~500 yards

  • No. 14 plays as a par 4 in the TOUR Championship setup

Recent Tour Championship Results

2025: Tommy Fleetwood -18 (64-63-67-68); 3 Stroke Victory over Cantlay & Henley
2024: Collin Morikawa -18 (66-63-67-66); 1 Stroke Victory over Sahith Theegala
2023: Viktor Hovland -19 (68-64-66-63); 7 Stroke Victory over Wyndham Clark
2023: Xander Schauffele -19 (67-64-68-62); 7 Stroke Victory over Wyndham Clark
2022: Rory McIlroy -17 (67-67-63-66); 1 Stroke Victory over Sungjae Im
2021: Jon Rahm -14 (65-65-68-68); 2 Stroke Victory over Xander Schauffele
2021: Kevin Na -14 (66-67-66-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Xander Schauffele
2020: Xander Schauffele -15 (67-65-67-66); 3 Stroke Victory over Scottie Scheffler
2019: Rory McIlroy -13 (66-67-68-66); 4 Stroke Victory over Xander Schauffele

*All based on non-handicap start

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Tournament Trends and Full Models

Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy
Shots Gained: Putting (Bermuda)

Tier 2

Greens-in-Regulation
Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring

Tier 3

Approaches from 100-150 yards
Approaches from 200+ yards
Shots Gained: East Lake
Par 3 Scoring

Course Comps

Muirfield Village Golf Club
TPC River Highlands
Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Last 7 Tour Championships Trends

Odds
0-10: 2022, 2021, 2019
11-20: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2020
20+: 2021

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/7 (86%) within 3 shots (1/7 led)
R2: 5/7 (71%) within 3 shots (5/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 1 shot (6/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) with at least 2 Top 13 finishes in their last 4 starts
7/7 (100%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish in their last start
4/7 (57%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Tour Championship History
7/7 (100%) at least 3 prior appearances
6/7 (86%) at least 2 Top 10 in prior appearances
5/7 (71%) Top 5 in a prior appearance
4/7 (57%) Top 10 in the appearance prior
4/7 (57%) WIN or 2nd in a prior appearance
1/7 (14%) without a Top 15 in a prior apperance

First Round Leader Splits
Groups 1-8: 57% (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020)
Groups 9-15: 86% (2025, 2024, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both Groups and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Tour Champ Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Si Woo Kim
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Alex Smalley
J.J. Spaun

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: DRAW (Knapp vs Griffin)
Wyndham Championship: Sammy Winner (Noren vs Thompson) +102,850

Champ Wins Money Title by $3,161,360
Sammy Wins Weeks Won Title by 5 weeks, 18-13-4

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Clubhouse Members Unlock Final Stats Model, Top 10 Model, Bets, Fade & DFS tips!

Final Models

Champ’s Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Tom Kim
Jake Knapp
Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler
Wyndham Clark
Sam Burns

Champ’s Crew

Win
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 - 1.65u
Si Woo Kim +2500 (boosted to +3750) - 1.15u
Wyndham Clark +3000 - 1.40u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Rory McIlroy | Sam Burns

First Round Leader
Jake Knapp +3000 - 0.75u
Rickie Fowler +4000 - 0.55u

First Round 3-Balls (-0.5)
Rickie Fowler EVEN > Robert MacIntyre - 1.5u

Additional Stats/Info

Champ’s Fade of the Week

J.T. Poston

DFS Chalk

Scottie Scheffler
Sam Burns
Tommy Fleetwood
Wyndham Clark

DFS Pivots

Si Woo Kim
Viktor Hovland
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Scott

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BMW Results: Finishes at BMW Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Valhalla Golf Club, Detroit Golf Club & Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

Sam Burns
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (91), ARD (113), ARD/SCR AVG (85), BOB 175200 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: GIR, PROX, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/3/12/2
BMW Results: 4/2/15/19/8
Comp Results: 15/30/42/MC
Insights: Oh how it Burns! One of the easiest players to make a case for this week, but the +1600 number forces a tougher decision after another Sunday letdown. He now has four Top-4 finishes in his last six starts, has gained on Approach in four straight and continues to put himself in position even after nearly a month break. Last week was another perfect example: after a slow start, Burns fired a Saturday 62 to reach the final pairing with Scottie, only to struggle badly off the tee Sunday and post one of the worst rounds in the field. The profile remains excellent, with steady putting gains all year and elite Approach play carrying him through the recent stretch, but strokes gained clutch is far from tops of the board. The BMW history deserves plenty of respect, with back-to-back top-4 finishes in his last two appearances, including a runner-up in 2022, while Olympia Fields in 2023 gives him another strong comp. The concern isn’t whether Burns can contend — he clearly can — it’s whether he can finally finish the job when he gets there. I thought playing with Scottie on Sunday would of propelled him not one of the worst in the field. Now at +1600, I’m leaning towards hat tip week, but check out tomorrow’s newletter for my final decision.

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (122), SCR (95), ARD/SCR AVG (79), P5 (76)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 66/40/7/32
BMW Results: 12/11/4/8/4/12/19/5/58/42/4/8/59/1/37
Comp Results: 1/4/12/12
Insights: Rory is a player I’m willing to watch rather than chase this week, even with the +1600 price looking far more appealing than it did last week. The BMW résumé is excellent, with a win in 2012 and best in the field among players with at least three starts over the last six seasons (see table below). The problem is the current version of Rory. He admitted last week that he felt lost with his swing and needed the tournament simply to shake off the rust, and the numbers backed that up with his first off-the-tee loss of the season. The approach game has also declined since June, the around-the-green play hasn’t bailed him out since Augusta, and the putter has been either spiking or sitting near the bottom of the field. There are a few things to cling to, including his win at the number one comp this week Valhalla and the fact that he knows how to handle this part of the country, but his 50th at Bellerive in 2018 offers little encouragement. The second consecutive start should help, and at nearly double the price from last week there is certainly more value if you believe he can flip the switch quickly. I’m just not seeing enough evidence that happens immediately. DFS and round match-ups if books want to get generous, but I’d rather wait another week before going full throttle.

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +280
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (78), APP 200+ (54), PROX (78), BOB 175200 (106)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/2/4/MC
BMW Results: 1/33/2/3/22/20
Comp Results: 2/8/20/MC
Insights: Scottie, Scottie, Scottie. Obviously the player everyone is trying to beat this week, and after what happened at St. Jude, it’s hard to argue with that. The 16-start winless drought is gone in spectacular fashion, with Scottie winning by eight while posting the best Approach and Putting performances of his career according to DataGolf. He also gained across all four key SG categories and now owns four straight starts gaining off the tee, three straight on Approach, around the greens and with the putter. The season-long profile remains ridiculous, ranking 1st in the field in Tee to Green, GIR, Ball Striking, Scrambling, Birdie or Better, Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 scoring, among others. The BMW résumé only adds to the case, with a win in 2022, runner-up in 2023 and another 3rd in 2024, while his comp results at Valhalla and other longer classical setups provide plenty of encouragement outside of the jail cell. The only question is whether we’re paying too much after an eight-shot victory, with the number now down to +280 after being available around +500 last week. We know Scheffler can win in bunches, and the model gap actually grew from roughly 800 points last week to 1,300 this week (see top 5 below), so there’s no statistical reason to get cute. I’ll happily acknowledge he’s the most likely winner, but at this price tough to be interested even when the profile is as close to bulletproof as it gets.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, and Hideki Matsuyama!

Wyndham Clark
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 5/MC/MC/13
BMW Results: 13/15/64/31
Comp Results: 8/15/17/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels feels like one of the more appealing names in this range, especially after finally putting the full game together again last week. The season-long profile isn’t as impressive as some of the favorites, but his current form deserves more weight, with a 5th at St. Jude and wins at the U.S. Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson, along with a 3rd at Memorial and 5th at the Travelers. More importantly, he gained across all five categories last week, including his third-best Approach performance of the season after back-to-back losses. That feels like a major positive heading into Bellerive, particularly for a player whose ceiling is already proven when the irons are cooperating. The course setup also makes sense, with a longer classical layout, larger green complexes and Bentgrass putting all playing into Clark’s strengths. There isn’t much course history to lean on, with no BMW start last year and no Bellerive appearance in 2018, while his comp résumé is only modest. But I’m not overly concerned about that given how well he has played on similar setups this season. At +3000, the number is enough to get my attention, and with Clark continuing to sit inside my top 10, I’m comfortable having exposure here in all markets.

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (54), PUTT (72), BOB 175200 (104)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/MC/3/4
BMW Results: 17/28/2/48/6
Comp Results: 2/6/8/MC
Insights: Fitzy has one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field, but I’m having a hard time getting past the +2200 price in this particular setup. He ranks 2nd in the field by season-long profile and sits 2nd in Tee to Green and Approach, while also ranking inside the top 10 in Bogey or Better, Bogey Avoidance and Par 3, Par 4 and Par 5 scoring. The recent form is encouraging too, with a 12th-MC-3rd-4th stretch and gains across all four key SG categories last week. The approach bounced back after the loss at The Open, and the putter continues to show enough spikes to keep the ceiling intact. The bigger concern remains off the tee, where he remains more field average over above average and far from the player who ripped through the middle of the season with three wins in four starts. The Bellerive setup also doesn’t scream Fitzpatrick primarily due to the missed cut at the 2018 PGA. His BMW history is solid, particularly at Olympia Fields where he finished 2nd in 2023 and 6th in 2020, but I’m more interested in DFS and potentially placement markets than an outright at this number. He is a player I have interest in next week if we can see signs; however, at this time feels like another off-the-pace T12 he spun out last week.

Tommy Fleetwod
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (119), BOB 175200 (114)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/4/13/14
BMW Results: 4/5/25/11/8
Comp Results: 25/26/MC
Insights: Tommy’s BMW profile is strong enough to explain the short number, but I’m not convinced it’s strong enough to pay +1800. He sits inside the top five in the field in Tee to Green, Around the Green, Scrambling, Around+Scrambling Average, Bogey or Better, Bogey Avoidance, Par 3 and Par 5 scoring, while gaining in all four key SG categories in three of his last four starts. The BMW history is also excellent, with four straight starts gaining across the board and back-to-back top-5 finishes, including a runner-up last year. The current form is solid as well, but there are a few cracks. Approach cooled last week, the putter lost for the second time in three starts, and despite finishing 7th, he never really felt like he was in position to win after sitting 2nd following Thursday. He also needed an elite scrambling performance to keep the result afloat. There’s plenty to like here, especially with how well he’s consistently played this event, but at +1800 I’m struggling to find enough upside compared to the other names around him. The profile says contender, the price says bet, and I’m siding with the latter. On the short list for hat tip of the week without a doubt.

Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (90), GIR (93), APP 200+ (91), PUTT (76), BA (77)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, P5
Top 25% Rank: APP, APP 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/MC/13/1
BMW Results: 7/26/1/35/17/40
Comp Results: 1/3/12/13/40
Insights: BDV enters the final fifty with the profile to make another run, but there are enough inconsistencies to make this a tougher outright decision at +2500. He ranks inside the top 25 percent of the field in Approach, Approach 175-200 and Par 3 scoring, while gaining on Approach in four straight starts and posting his fourth-best approach performance of the season last week. The ceiling is clearly there, especially after winning the 2023 BMW at Olympia Fields, and his 3rd at the 2024 PGA at Valhalla adds another strong classical-course comp to the résumé. The problem is the volatility off the tee and with the putter, with four putting losses in his last seven starts and the driver costing him again Sunday at St. Jude. Bellerive is a new test, so there isn’t the same course-history safety net as some others in the field, but the BMW and Valhalla results suggest the setup can suit him. At +2500, the upside is obvious, but the current profile feels more like a player to target in matchups or a small first round leader sprinkle than someone I want to chase for all 72 holes.

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (58), PUTT (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, APP 3/4
FORM: 2/42/6/9
BMW Results: 19/5/31/67/29/28/41/58/20
Comp Results: 14/31/42/57/58/84/MC/MC
Insights: SWK arrives with the statistical profile to make another run, but this feels like a much tougher spot to trust after last week’s runner-up. He’s 4th in the field by overall ranking and sits inside the top six in Tee to Green, Approach, Approach Average, Birdie or Better, Birdie Average, Bogey Avoidance, Par 3 and Par 4 scoring. The ball-striking also continues to trend the right way, with his best Off the Tee performance of the season and 4th-best Approach week of the year at St. Jude. The only real problem was the putter, which was essentially field average and kept him from putting more pressure on Scottie. Bellerive does offer some encouraging history, with his last two BMW Championship appearances producing his best finishes here, including a closing 67 last year and a 5th in 2024. But the broader profile is less convincing, with a best comp result of just 14th at the Rocket Classic and only 24th in this field when looking at longer-course performance (top 10 seen below). Once you layer in BMW history, classical-course results, bentgrass greens and the Rees Jones design, the profile starts looking more like a Top-20 candidate than someone I want to chase at +2800. After backing him last week, I’m more inclined to let the price do the talking this time. A small first round leader sprinkle could scratch the FOMO itch, and a live bet is certainly in play if the ball-striking carries over, but I’m likely watching from the sidelines rather than going back to the well at the same level.

Jake Knapp
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (83), ARD (123), ARD/SCR AVG (89), P3 (91)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, P3
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/MC/13/MC
BMW Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4/31/MC/MC
Insights: Knapptime makes his BMW Championship debut with plenty of momentum after another strong ball-striking week at TPC Southwind. He finished T7 last week while ranking 7th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 12th in Approach, 6th in Ball Striking and 4th in Tee to Green, with the driver producing his 2nd-best performance of the season. The approach game continues to trend in the right direction as well, with gains in three of his last five starts, while last week’s positive Around-the-Green performance was only his second in nine starts. The putter was slightly negative, but that’s a category where he’s shown considerably more upside throughout the season. The bigger question is whether that momentum can translate to Bellerive without any course history to lean on. The Rocket Classic remains the strongest comp, while his ability to combine distance with strong approach play from both shorter wedges and 175+ yards fits a course featuring several very short and very long par 4s. Knapp also ranks inside the top 20 on Tour in driving distance, giving him the firepower to attack this layout. At +4000, there is plenty of upside for a player still searching for his first top-five since February, and with a potential for his first Tour Championship appearance—there’s plenty of motivation. I prefer Wyndham Clark slightly among the similar profiles, but intriguing Each-Way and placement odds give options if you’re willing to back the debut.

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/7/5/3
BMW Results: 26/WD/WD/35/46/3/3/15/47/24/7/20
Comp Results: 3/5/13/13/21/35/35/WD/WD/MC/
Insights: Hideki comes into Bellerive riding one of the strongest stretches of form in the field, with finishes of 3rd, 5th, 7th and 7th over his last four starts and six straight top-15s overall. More importantly, the biggest question mark in his game all season—the driver—has finally started to cooperate. Matsuyama has gained Off the Tee in six straight events, including his best OTT performance of the season last week, while his approach play has remained elite with the 2nd-best approach performance last week and his best just three starts ago at the Rocket Classic. At St. Jude, he ranked 5th OTT, 5rd in Approach and 2nd in Tee to Green, showing the complete ball-striking profile is starting to come together. Bellerive also gives us some encouraging history. Matsuyama opened the 2018 PGA Championship with rounds of 68-69 before a poor Saturday set him back, only to bounce back with a 66 on Sunday. His success at difficult parkland layouts like Augusta and Muirfield Village, along with positive history at Olympia Fields and Detroit, gives me confidence that this is another setup where his current form can translate. The concerns are putting and the recent BMW Championship results, but he has been much more competitive lately on the greens and his back-to-back top-3 finishes at this event in 2019 and 2020 are enough to keep me interested. At +2500, Matsuyama is one of my favorite outright values in the field and a player I’m willing to take against Scottie.

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Patio Preview

Bellerive Country Club
St. Louis, Missouri

• Par 70, 7,448 yards

  • Long course by modern PGA TOUR standards

  • Designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr.

  • Renovated by Rees Jones

• Returns to the PGA TOUR for the first time since the 2008 BMW Championship

  • Also hosted the 2018 PGA Championship

  • Those two events give us the primary historical data points for the course

• No cut

• Greens

  • Bentgrass

  • Historically large relative to many TOUR venues

  • 2018 PGA Championship setup averaged roughly 7,600 sq. ft. per green

• Fairways

  • Roughly 25-28 yards wide

  • Intermediate rough followed by heavier fescue rough

  • Missing the fairway can create a significant disadvantage, particularly when attacking long approaches

• Rough

  • Tall fescue

  • The 2018 setup used roughly 3-inch primary rough

  • Getting the ball back onto the fairway is important because the rough can make it difficult to control longer approaches

• Water

  • Water hazards are in play on numerous holes

  • Strategic risk increases on several of the longer holes

• Length + approach difficulty

  • Bellerive can stretch well beyond 7,400 yards

  • Long approaches will be a major part of the test

  • The 2018 PGA setup produced a particularly strong emphasis on long-iron play

• Driving

  • Distance matters, but this isn’t simply a bomb-and-gouge course

  • The narrow fairways and penal rough create a premium on distance + accuracy

  • The architects specifically described Bellerive as a course that requires shot-making rather than favoring one particular player type

• Approach

  • 175+ yard approach play should be heavily weighted

  • Long-iron and mid-iron proximity should matter more than usual

  • GIR becomes especially important because missing from long range can leave difficult recovery shots

• Par 5s

  • Important scoring opportunities on a long course

  • Ability to generate birdies/eagles with length can separate the field

• Par 4s

  • Several long par 4s should put pressure on both driving and long-iron play

  • Par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance should be key differentiators

• Around the green

  • More important than the relatively large greens might initially suggest

  • Misses can leave difficult recovery shots from the rough/fescue

  • Players who consistently find greens should have a meaningful advantage

• Putting

  • Bentgrass putting

  • Less likely to be the primary separator than tee-to-green play

  • I’d put significantly more emphasis on ball striking than raw putting form

Recent BMW Championship Results

2025: Scottie Scheffler -15 (66-65-67-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Robert MacIntyre
2024: Keegan Bradley -12 (66-68-70-72); 1 Stroke Victory over Aberg, Burns & Scott
2023: Viktor Hovland -17 (69-68-65-61); 2 Stroke Victory over M Fitzpatrick & Scheffler
2022: Patrick Cantlay -14 (68-68-65-69); 1 Stroke Victory over Scott Stallings
2021: Patrick Cantlay -27 (66-63-66-66); Playoff Victory over Bryson DeChambeau

Notable Bellerive Country Club Tournament Results
2018 PGA Champ: Brooks Koepka -16 (69-63-66-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Tiger Woods
2008 BMW Champ: Camilo Villegas -15 (65-66-66-68); 2 Stroke Victory over Hart

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Tournament Trends and Full Models

Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Total Driving

Tier 2

Approaches from 175+
Approach Proximity
Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Bogey Avoidance

Tier 3

Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Course Comps

Valhalla Golf Club
Detroit Golf Club
Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

Last 7 BMW Championships Trends

Odds
0-25: 2025, 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019
26-50: 2021
51-100: 2024

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/7 (57%) trailed by at least 4 shots (2/7 led)
R2: 4/7 (57%) within 3 shots (4/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 3 shots (4/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) with at least 1 Top 25 finish in their last 2 starts
6/7 (86%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with a Top 20 finish in their last start
3/7 (43%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
2/7 (29%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s BMW Championship Tournament History
7/7 (100%) Top 35 in their last appearance
7/7 (100%) at least 3 prior appearances
6/7 (86%) at least 2 Top 20 in prior appearances
5/7 (71%) at least 5 prior appearances
5/7 (71%) at least 1 Top 5
4/7 (57%) WIN or 2nd
4/7 (57%) at least 2 Top 10 in prior appearances
4/7 (57%) Top 5 within 2 appearances of their WIN

First Round Leader Splits
Groups 1-12: 71% (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019)
Groups 13-25: 57% (2025, 2021, 2020, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both Groups and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Young
Matt Fitzpatrick
Si Woo Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Wyndham Clark
Patrick Cantlay
Rory McIlroy
Chris Gotterup
Viktor Hovland

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: DRAW (Knapp vs Griffin)
Wyndham Championship: Sammy Winner (Noren vs Thompson) +102,850

Champ Wins Money Title by $3,161,360
Sammy Wins Weeks Won Title by 5 weeks, 18-13-4

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Clubhouse Members Unlock Final Stats Model, Top 10 Model, Bets, Fade & DFS tips!

Final Models

Champ’s Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Matt Fitzpatrick
Tom Kim
Keith Mitchell
Wyndham Clark
Russell Henley
Sam Burns
Jacob Bridgeman

Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Xander Schauffele +1600 (boosted to +2080) - 2u
Sam Burns +2000 (boosted to +2500) - 1.70u
Si Woo Kim +3000 - 1.35u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Cameron Young | Tom Kim

First Round Leader
Xander Schauffele +2500 - 0.90u
Si Woo Kim +3000 - 0.75u
Collin Morikawa +3000 - 0.75u

First Round 3-Balls (All -0.5)
Si Woo Kim +110 > Justin Thomas - 1.50u
Aldrich Potgieter +105 > Patrick Rodgers - 1.50u
Aaron Rai -105 > Bud Cauley - 1.05u

Additional Stats/Info

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Patrick Rodgers

DFS Chalk

Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Kim
Tommy Fleetwood

DFS Pivots

Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Russell Henley
Aaron Rai
Sungjae Im

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Southwind Results: Finishes at TPC Southwind
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Albany Golf Course, Port Royal Golf Course & Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1100
Stats: n/a
Top 75% Rank: n/a
Top 25% Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 40/7/32/12
Southwind Results: 68/3/MC/12/47/4/7/29 (19 of 30 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 18
Insights: Rory McIlroy arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest course histories in the field, but his current form comes with a few questions. He’s gained off the tee in four straight starts and remains one of the best drivers in the field, while his approach play has been much more inconsistent, losing strokes in his last three starts. The putter has also been boom-or-bust, although his Bermuda putting numbers are among the better marks in the field. His recent form of 40-7-32-12 doesn’t jump off the page, but he ranks fifth in the field over his last four starts and still carries the highest ceiling of nearly anyone in this field. Course history is where the case becomes much more interesting. Rory has finished 3rd, 4th, 7th and 12th in eight Southwind starts, gaining off the tee in six and on approach in five. He also owns 19 rounds in the 60s here, including a 62, showing he has consistently been able to find the scoring gear this course demands. The concern is that this is his first start here since the renovation, and only two of his last five opening rounds have been in the 60s, so I don’t see a strong FRL angle. At +1100, the price leaves little room for the approach game to remain average, but the combination of elite driving, proven Southwind success and strong recent form makes Rory difficult to ignore. He’s more of a Top-10/Top-5 play for me than an outright at this number, but the ceiling is absolutely there if the irons finally click. -C

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (154), BOB 150175 (154), P3 (125)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, BOB 175200, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, AP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 2/18/MC/51
Southwind Results: 22/2/24/57/46/6/27/52 (23 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 4/8/10/12/MC
Insights: Xander Schauffele comes into TPC Southwind with his form finally giving bettors a reason to look past a somewhat uninspiring season-long statistical profile. He followed a missed cut with a runner-up at the Rocket Classic, entering the weekend just two shots back and the final round four behind before closing with a 65. More importantly, he’s gained above average or better off the tee and on approach in back-to-back starts, while the putter—his biggest issue all season—finally gained at Detroit. That was only his third positive putting week in his last 10, but it’s a meaningful sign for a player whose ceiling has historically been tied to getting the flat stick to cooperate. He’s also top 10 in this field in OTT, total driving, scrambling, birdie average and par-5 scoring, giving him plenty of ways to stay competitive. Southwind history gives Xander another reason to keep him on the card. He’s finished 2nd, 6th and 22nd here, with 23 of 32 career rounds in the 60s, and has gained putting in seven of eight appearances. His runner-up two years ago included the low weekend of the tournament with rounds of 67-63, while he also posted a low round of the day here last year. The biggest concern is proximity, where he ranks near the bottom of the field, especially on these small greens, along with mediocre par-3 scoring. At +1600, the price is still difficult to love given only three top-5 finishes this season, but his recent runner-up, strong Southwind history and signs of life with the putter make him a player worth keeping exposure to. I’m willing to put more weight on the recent form and proven ceiling than the season-long numbers here, with Top-10/Top-5 markets more appealing than forcing the outright at 16/1. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (74), PROX (100), BOB 175200 (105)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/4/MC/2
Southwind Results: 3/4/41/MC/14/15/43/MC (20 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 65, 4 times)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/2/3/4/5/57
Insights: Scottie Scheffler enters TPC Southwind with arguably the strongest overall profile in the field, even at a price of just +500. He’s first in the field in Bermuda putting and owns the best overall average ranking across your key metrics, sitting more than four average spots ahead of the next-best player. The recent form is equally encouraging, with finishes of 2nd-4th-MC-2nd and a runner-up at the 3M Open where he pushed Koivun deep into Sunday. He’s gained off the tee in four straight, on approach in three of four and around the greens in all four, while his best putting performance of the season came last week. The only statistical concerns are approach proximity from 175-200 yards, overall proximity and BOB from 175-200, but even those have improved substantially throughout the season. He’s also finding the scoring gear again, with 10 of his last 12 rounds in the 60s and seven straight rounds of 68 or better. Course history and comp-course results only strengthen the case. Scheffler has finished 3rd and 4th in his last two Southwind appearances, sitting two shots back entering the weekend in 2024 and two behind heading into Sunday last year before missing the playoff by one. He has 20 of 28 rounds in the 60s here, including four 65s, and his last two appearances have been particularly strong because the putter finally cooperated alongside his already elite tee-to-green game. The comp profile is nearly impossible to ignore with two wins at Albany, two runner-ups, a 3rd at Port Royal and a 5th at the RSM. Your custom model also separates him from the field, giving him a 4,730 score compared with 3,960 for the next player. At +500, the obvious question isn’t whether the profile fits—it does—it’s whether the number is worth paying. I expect a heavy “Without Scottie” market this week for good reason, but if you’re betting the outright, the combination of current form, course history, Bermuda putting and the overwhelming model advantage makes him the clear favorite. -C

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock Player Deep Dives for Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa!

Sam Burns
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (102), APP 175200 (105), ARD (121), BOB 175200 (111)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: GIR, PROX, BS, PUTT, BOB, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/12/2/20
Southwind Results: 28/5/52/20/2/MC (13 of 22 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/11/12/14/16/37
Insights: Sam Burns enters TPC Southwind as one of the strongest all-around profiles in the field at +2000. The recent form is hard to ignore, with three Top 5s in his last five starts, including two majors, while gaining off the tee and on approach in four straight events. He also ranks near the top of the field in putting, par-4 scoring, birdie-or-better and bogey avoidance, giving him plenty of ways to separate on a course where clutch scoring will matter. The main concern is around-the-green play, where he sits in the bottom 25% of the field, but the strength of the rest of the profile gives him plenty of room to overcome it. Southwind has also been a comfortable place for Burns, with two Top 5s in six appearances, including a runner-up in 2021, and he has gained on approach in every start here. He’s posted 13 of 22 rounds in the 60s, including a 63 in 2024, while seven of his last 10 weekend rounds here have been in the 60s. Albany provides another strong comp, and his history on similar Bermuda setups adds confidence in the putter showing up when it matters. The only hesitation is the slow starts he’s had at Southwind and the possibility of some rust after the Open. After the season Burns has put together, I’m willing to trust the game is ready and that the motivation is high for his first win since 2023. At +2000, this feels like another legitimate chance for Burns to turn a strong season into a Sunday tee time. -C

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (52), APP 175200 (65), PUTT (91), BOB 175200 (95)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: MC/3/4/22
Southwind Results: 32/18/66/5/57/6/4 (18 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 4/12/13/30/MC
Insights: Matt Fitzpatrick enters TPC Southwind at +2000 with one of the strongest overall profiles in the field, but I suspect he’ll get overlooked after an unexpected missed cut at the Open. That result snapped a run of 12 straight starts gaining on approach, and the back-to-back losses around the greens are another oddity, but neither feels like a reason to abandon a player who has posted seven Top 5s this season, including five Top 2s and three wins. Fitzpatrick ranks inside the Top 5 in the field in tee-to-green, approach, GIR, ball striking, around-the-green play and par-4 scoring, while his putter has gained in five straight starts. The question is whether the recent putting and short-game gains translate to Southwind, where his historical numbers are stronger than his more recent results suggest. The course history is quietly better than it looks, with a 5th, 6th and 4th among his seven appearances, plus 18 of 28 rounds in the 60s. He’s shown plenty of upside here, including a 36-hole lead in 2019 and multiple low rounds, while Albany gives him at least one meaningful comp result with a Top 5. The biggest concern is that his Southwind success came earlier in his career, and only six of his last 12 rounds here have been in the 60s. Still, this is a player with the third-best recent results in the field and one of the deepest season-long statistical profiles. After an Open missed cut that should keep ownership down, I’m willing to look past the recent blip and take a chance that Fitzpatrick gets back to the version of himself we’ve seen for most of 2026. At +2000, he feels like a sneaky way to buy a proven winner at a number that may not stay this high. -C

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (111), PROX (115), BOB 175200 (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/13/14/11
Southwind Results: 3/22/3/46/35/4 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/20/37
Insights: Tommy checks a lot of the boxes at Southwind and arguably has the strongest course-history profile of the players at the top of this board. He owns three Top-4 finishes here, including a 3rd last year, and has gained across every key category in four of his last six starts. The consistency is the biggest appeal, with gains off the tee, on approach and around the greens in all four of his last four starts while the putter has cooperated in three of four. He doesn't have a standout strength statistically, but he rarely gives you a reason to take him off the board. His biggest issue is getting all four rounds to click at once, and that's been the difference between contention and another near miss. At Southwind, though, he's repeatedly put himself in position to win, including leading after 36 and 54 holes last year before falling one shot short of the playoff. At +2000, the price isn't screaming value, but the combination of elite course history, current consistency and another strong start-to-finish profile makes Tommy one of the more appealing outright options in this range and highly encourage a placement or each-way as we know Tommy’s tendencies. -C

Russell Henley
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (104), ARD (106), BOB 175200 (91)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: APP 150175, PROX, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 20/9/12/65
Southwind Results: 17/30/6/MC/MC/7/MC/27 (15 of 26 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/6/10/13/19/22/30/65/MC/MC
Insights: Russell Henley brings a strong all-around profile to TPC Southwind, with no major statistical weaknesses and top-25 marks in approach from 150-175 yards, proximity, scrambling, putting, bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring. The recent form is a little less convincing than the season-long numbers, however. He’s gained on approach in four straight starts and off the tee in three of his last four, but the approach spike that helped fuel his win at Colonial has faded, while he’s lost strokes around the greens in five of his last six. The putter has carried him over the last three weeks with multiple spike performances, making his recent results look better than the underlying ball-striking suggests. Southwind does offer plenty to like. Henley has gained off the tee in seven of eight appearances and on approach in six, including four straight, while his short-game and putting history here has been more volatile. He’s shown the ability to contend, finishing seventh in 2023 and sitting just four shots outside the playoff, but he’s only once put four rounds in the 60s together here. The early-round scoring profile is particularly appealing, and his 6-for-8 record of opening rounds in the 60s makes him an interesting First Round Leader or early-round exposure candidate. At +3500, I’m more interested in Henley as a dark-horse Top 10/Top 20 or FRL play than an outright, especially with his current form relying heavily on the putter. -C

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude SCR (61), PUTT (109), P5 (59)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 42/6/9/44
Southwind Results: 14/50/16/42/65/MC (12 of 22 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 4/18/71/WD/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Si Woo Kim arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field and arguably the best opportunity yet for his season-long numbers to finally translate into a win. He ranks third in the field in Tee-to-Green and Approach, first and third in key approach buckets, second in Birdie-or-Better Percentage and Par-4 Scoring, and sits near the top of the field in Bogey Avoidance. The ball-striking has remained encouraging as well, gaining across the board in both starts overseas before the putter let him down at the Rocket Classic. The biggest question remains the flat stick, which has been the one consistent weakness throughout his Southwind history. Course history is encouraging enough to keep him firmly on the radar. Kim has four rounds in the 60s in each of his last two appearances here, including an opening 65 last year that had him inside the top 10 entering Sunday. He also posted six straight weekend rounds in the 60s across his last three starts at Southwind and owns a First Round Leader here after opening with a 62 in 2022. The concern is that he has gained on approach in only half of his six starts and lost strokes putting in four of them, leaving him without a top-10 finish at the venue. At +3000, the price is appealing for a player whose statistical profile is second only to Scottie in this field, but I’m more comfortable with Each-Way, Top-10s and Matchups than making him a core outright. If the putter cooperates, however, this is exactly the type of spot where Si Woo can finally turn the season-long numbers into a win. -C

Tom Kim
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (96), PUTT (90), BOB 150175 (87)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 5/20/MC/1
Southwind Results: 50/24/13 (8 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 2/10
Insights: Tom Kim arrives at TPC Southwind with the best recent form in the field and another strong opportunity to build on what has been an impressive stretch of golf. He ranks fifth in the field in Approach, third in Proximity and Scrambling, second in Bogey Avoidance and sixth in Par-4 Scoring, while continuing to produce massive approach spikes with nearly six straight events gaining more than a stroke per round. The putter finally cooperated last week as he gained 1.5 strokes on the greens, but a quiet Sunday 70 kept him from turning a 63 into another win. Off the tee remains closer to field average and he’s lost strokes around the green in three of his last five, but the current approach play gives him enough margin to overcome those weaknesses. Southwind has shown both the upside and frustration with Kim. He owns eight rounds in the 60s across three appearances, including a 64 in the second round in 2024 and a 64 in the opening round in 2023 that put him inside the top five heading into the weekend. The problem has been finishing, with only 50% of his weekend rounds breaking 70 and two putting losses in three starts, including a major loss during his last appearance. His only comp is Albany, but two top-10s there—including a runner-up in 2024—provide enough evidence that the setup can suit him. The renovated Southwind will provide a fresh look after skipping last year’s event, but if the approach game continues to fire and the putter stays even, Kim has the profile to make another serious run. At +4500, the price is appealing for a player sitting 26th in the FedEx Cup with a win potentially putting him firmly into East Lake. -C

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (109)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 18/3/17/29
Southwind Results: 22/22/13/5/26/20 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: 5/6/7
Insights: Collin Morikawa arrives at TPC Southwind with one of the strongest all-around statistical profiles in the field and the fifth-best overall event average. He ranks second in the field in Approach, sixth in Tee-to-Green, fifth in GIR, third in Bogey-or-Better and first in Birdie-or-Better Average, while also ranking inside the top 10 in multiple scoring and birdie buckets. The recent form supports the numbers, with four straight events gaining off the tee and on approach and back-to-back approach spikes heading into the week. Even better, the putter has quietly been a strength, gaining in four straight and only losing strokes twice in his last 11 starts. The concern is around the greens, where he ranks poorly in this field, and that becomes more important on Southwind’s tiny surfaces if he fails to find enough fairways. Course history is one of the biggest reasons to like Morikawa this week. He’s making his seventh straight start at Southwind and has never finished worse than 26th, with 17 of 24 career rounds in the 60s and five of six Sunday rounds under par. He also owns five approach gains and five off-the-tee gains across his six starts here, while gaining around the green in four, giving him a much more complete course profile than the season numbers might suggest. Last year’s T3 after opening 66-65 was particularly encouraging, with the only thing preventing a deeper run being a frozen putter over the weekend. At +2500, Morikawa feels like another strong outright option for a player sitting sixth in the FedEx Cup standings and already owning six other top-five finishes this season. With the course comfort, elite approach play and recent putting form all lining up, I’m comfortable staying on Morikawa as he looks for his second win of 2026 and a potential run at his first FedEx Cup title. -C

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Patio Preview

TPC Southwind

Memphis, Tennessee

• Par 70, 7,288 yards

  • Long/very long course by Tour standards

• First event of the 2026 FedExCup Playoffs

  • Top 70 in FedExCup standings qualify

  • 50 players advance to the BMW Championship

• Major renovation ahead of the 2025 event

  • All 18 green complexes were rebuilt/resurfaced

  • Tee boxes were also rebuilt/resurfaced

  • Green surrounds were changed to Zeon Zoysia

  • Fairways were resurfaced

  • Additional green square footage created more potential hole locations

  • This is important when weighing older course-history numbers because the course is not exactly the same test it was pre-2025.

Greens

• Bermuda greens

• Smallish targets historically around 4,500 sq. ft.

• The renovated greens added some square footage and new hole locations

• Firmness and drainage were upgraded with the renovation

Rough / Fairways

• Zoysia fairways and Bermuda rough/surrounds

• Fairways remain tight

• Water is in play on 11 holes

• Missing fairways carries a meaningful penalty because approaches from the rough are considerably more difficult than from the short grass

• This creates an interesting balance: distance helps, but accuracy and good driving decisions are extremely important

Off the Tee

• Driver usage is significantly above Tour average

• Players can use length to carry hazards and shorten some approaches, but this isn’t simply a bomber’s paradise

• The combination of narrow fairways, water and difficult rough makes SG: OTT + Driving Accuracy or Good Drives particularly valuable

Approach

• 65–70% of approaches come from 125–200 yards

• Approaches from the fairway are dramatically easier than from the rough

• Large GIR/proximity penalty when players miss the fairway

Around the Green

• Scrambling matters more than the raw course difficulty might suggest

• Small greens and surrounding hazards create plenty of opportunities to miss greens

Putting

• Bermuda putting surfaces have historically been relatively favorable

• A hot putter can obviously win the week, but I wouldn’t build the model around it

Par 3s

4 Par 3s

• Approximately 162–239 yards

• A mix of short/mid irons and one very long test

• #14 at 239 yards is particularly demanding

• Par 3 scoring remains worth considering, especially because several of these holes can punish misses

Par 4s

12 Par 4s

• Approximately 395–505 yards

• The biggest scoring category on the course

• Several demanding long par 4s

• Shorter holes still require accuracy because of water, trees and strategically positioned hazards

Par 5s

2 Par 5s

• Approximately 530 and 554 yards

• Both provide legitimate birdie/eagle opportunities

• #3 plays downhill at 554 yards

• #16 is 530 yards and reachable in two depending on the drive

  

TPC Southwind Tournament Results

2025: Justin Rose Name -16 (64-66-67-67); Playoff Victory over J.J. Spaun
2024: Hideki Matsuyama -17 (65-64-64-70); 2 Stroke Victory over Hovland & Schauffele
2023: Lucas Glover -15 (66-64-66-69); Playoff Victory over Patrick Cantlay
2022: Will Zalatoris -15 (71-63-65-66); Playoff Victory over Sepp Straka
*First Leg of FedEx Cup Playoffs

2021: Abraham Ancer -16 (67-62-67-68); Playoff Victory over Burns & Matsuyama
2020: Justin Thomas -13 (66-70-66-65); 3 Stroke Victory over 4 Players
2019: Brooks Koepka -16 (68-67-64-65); 3 Stroke Victory over Webb Simpson

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Tournament Trends and Full Models

Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Approach
Approach 125-200 yards
Total Driving
Ball Striking

Tier 2

Greens-in-Regulation
Birdie-or-better%
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring

Tier 3

Scrambling
Shots Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained at TPC Southwind
Par 5 Scoring

Course Comps

Albany Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)

TPC Southwind (1st Playoff Leg) Trends

Odds
1-25: 2022
26-50: 2024
51-100: 2025, 2023

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader by Round
R1: 3/4 (75%) within 3 shots (0/4 led)
R2: 4/4 (100%) within 5 shots (2/4 led)
R3: 4/4 (100%) within 2 shots (2/4 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
4/4 (100%) Top 25 in their last start
4/4 (100%) 2 Top 25 in their last 4 starts
4/4 (100%) at least 1 missed cut in their last 4 starts
3/4 (75%) Top 10 in their last 3 starts
2/4 (50%) Top 5 in their last 4 starts
1/4 (25%) 0 missed cuts in their last 3 starts
1/4 (25%) WIN or 2nd in their last 4 starts

Winner’s FedEx St. Jude Tournament History
4/4 (100%) at least 1 prior appearance
4/4 (100%) Top 15 in a prior appearance
4/4 (100%) Top 25 in the appearance prior to WIN
3/4 (75%) at least 4 prior appearances
2/4 (50%) Top 5 in a prior appearance
1/4 (25%) Win or 2nd in a prior appearance

First Round Leader Splits
AM: 100% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022)
PM: 0%
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Matt Fitzpatrick
Tom Kim
Wyndham Clark
Russell Henley
Rickie Fowler
Sam Burns
Jacob Bridgeman

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: DRAW (Knapp vs Griffin)
Wyndham Championship: Davis Thompson (Champ) vs Alex Noren (Sammy)

Money leader: Champ leads +$3,264,210
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 17-13-4

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Final Models

Champ’s Top 10

Cameron Young
Doug Ghim
Keith Mitchell
Tom Kim
Mac Meissner
Davis Thompson
Hideki Matsuyama
Ryan Gerard
Zecheng Dou
Emiliano Grillo

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Subscriber Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Hideki Matsuyama +1750 (boosted to +2187) - 2u
Davis Thompson +4000 (boosted to +4800) - 0.90u
Mac Meissner +5000 - 0.85u
Matt Wallace +7500 - 0.55u

Hat Tip
Cameron Young | Jackon Koivun | Ryan Gerard

Finishing Position
Tom Kim U42.5 (-120) - 2u

First Round Leader
Mac Meissner +5000 - 0.40u
Davis Thompson +5000 - 0.40u
Emiliano Grillo +6000 - 0.35u
Matt Wallace +6000 - 0.35u

First Round 3-Balls - 2.2u
Ryan Gerard +115 > Jason Day | Jordan Spieth

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Sungjae Im +7500 w/ 3pl (0.5u)*
Blades Brown +8000 w/ 3pl (0.5u)*
*Bet365 each way market

Additional Stats/Info

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Alex Fitzpatrick

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

Ryan Gerard

DFS Chalk

Aaron Rai
Ben Kohles
Bud Cauley
Ryo Hisatsune
Billy Horschel
Lucas Glover

DFS Pivots

Justin Thomas
Maverick McNealy
Keith Mitchell
Rasmus Hojgaard
Max Greyserman

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Wyndham Results: Finishes at the Wyndham Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Sawgrass, TPC River Highlands & TPC Twin Cities

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2250
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (123), TD (111), OTT/TD AVG (112), GIR (103), BS (107)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 5/3/14/14
Wyndham Results: 19/MC/MC/MC/11/3/MC/MC/15 (19 of 26 Rds in 60s; 64 twice)
Comp Results: 3/5/6/7/7/8/13/14/17/22/23/23/27/30/30/MC/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Deki arrives at Sedgefield playing some of his best golf of the season after back-to-back top-five finishes, including another each-way cash with a fifth-place finish at the Rocket Classic. The encouraging sign isn’t just the results—it’s the complete profile. He has now gained off the tee in four straight starts, on approach in three of his last four, and everywhere except the putter was firing last week. Even then, he lost less than half a stroke on the greens, marking just his second negative putting performance in his last eight events. If he can produce a third consecutive tournament with gains across all four major strokes-gained categories, he’ll once again be one of the toughest players to beat. Sedgefield has been a mixed bag over the years, but the underlying ball-striking numbers are impossible to ignore. In nine previous appearances, Hideki has gained strokes off the tee in all but one start and on approach in eight of them, producing finishes as high as third while repeatedly putting himself in contention entering the weekend. The putter has ultimately been the difference between winning and finishing outside the top 10, but that’s always the story with Hideki. After intentionally passing last week in hopes of getting a better number here, I’m happy to jump back on board. At +2250, his current form, elite tee-to-green play and proven history at Sedgefield made him an easy click this week for outright, first round leader and match-ups. -C

Justin Thomas
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 65/50/14/17
Wyndham Results: 12/MC/56/78 (7 of 13 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 twice)
Comp Results: 1/3/3/5/8/9/9/11/14/24/30/33/33/35/36/56/60/75/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JT is an intriguing buy-low candidate this week. While his Wyndham record doesn’t jump off the page, his most recent visit in 2023 resulted in a 12th-place finish despite arriving in poor form and needing a dramatic chip-in on the 72nd hole just to keep his playoff hopes alive. Since then, he’s quietly transformed one of the biggest weaknesses in his game, becoming a much more accurate driver while gaining off the tee in eight of his last nine starts on U.S. soil. That improvement, paired with a course that emphasizes wedges, short irons and precision over power, makes Sedgefield a much better fit than his history alone suggests. The recent finishes of 65th and 50th overseas will likely keep bettors away, but his U.S. form before the links swing was far stronger with six straight top-25 finishes, including five top-20s. The concern is that his statistical profile this week isn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect, and his history at Sedgefield has been inconsistent, particularly off the tee. At +3000, though, the number feels fair for a player with his pedigree. I’m not quite ready to go all-in, but I like the bounce-back spot back on American soil. An outright sprinkle, each-way ticket and Top 20 would be my preferred exposure this week. -C

Cameron Young
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (84), PUTT (90), P5 (77)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude GIR, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/2
FORM: 8/2/47/43
Wyndham Results: 1/22 (7 of 8 Rds in the 60s; Low: 62 twice)
Comp Results: 1/9/47/51/52/54/60/61/MC/MC
Insights: CY returns to Sedgefield as the defending champion, and it’s hard to argue against him being the man to beat again. Since the Masters, he’s consistently been one of the best ball strikers on Tour, gaining off the tee, on approach and around the greens, while the putter has finally become more reliable over his last two starts. Even after the disappointment at the Rocket Classic, where he led after 36 holes before the putter cooled over the weekend, there was far more to like than dislike. His history here is outstanding, winning by six last year while gaining over 10 strokes with the putter and previously firing another Friday 62 in 2024 to sit second entering the weekend. He clearly sees the lines at Sedgefield. The local connection only adds to the appeal. As a former Wake Forest standout just down the road, Young is playing in front of familiar crowds at a tournament that has consistently rewarded players with Carolina ties. Add in the strong correlation with TPC Sawgrass, where Young already owns a victory, and the course fit becomes even more convincing. At +900 the price is short, but that’s the cost of backing the clear favorite on a course where he’s already proven he can dominate. If the putter produces anything close to last year’s performance. First Round Leader and Top-10 markets also stand out as strong ways to invest this week, but most likely hat tip here. -C

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Ryan Gerard
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (124), ARD/SCR AVG (111), BOB 200+ (111)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 150175, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 8/9/26/44
Wyndham Results: MC/MC (2 of 4 Rds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 27/42/44/54/57
Insights: Ryan Gerard continues to quietly build one of the steadiest résumés on Tour, arriving at the Wyndham with four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including ninth at The Open and eighth at the Rocket Classic. His game has been driven by consistently strong play off the tee and around the greens, while the putter has spiked in three of those top-10 finishes. The approach play hasn’t been elite every week, but when it has elevated, Gerard has found himself firmly in contention. Add in the confidence from last year’s Barracuda Championship victory, and it feels like he’s becoming increasingly comfortable in big moments. This also sets up as something of a home game for the North Carolina native and former UNC Tar Heel, a storyline that has mattered at Sedgefield over the years. While his course history shows two missed cuts, he arrives this time in dramatically better form than either previous visit. Sitting 16th in the FedEx Cup standings, Gerard also has extra motivation as he looks to strengthen his case for a Presidents Cup captain’s pick. At +3000, I think he’s one of the more appealing values on the board. The home-state narrative, current form and balanced statistical profile all point toward another strong week, making him a popular this week in outright and placement markets. -C

Tom Kim
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 150175 (113), BOB 200+ (141)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 20/MC/1/46
Wyndham Results: WD/1 (4 of 5 Rds in 60s; Low: 61)
Comp Results: 2/20/26/28/38/42/45/51
Insights: Tom Kim returns to Sedgefield looking to recapture the magic from his breakthrough victory in 2022, when he closed with a Sunday 61 to win by five after beginning the final round two shots back. That week showcased exactly why this course fits his eye—elite iron play, smart course management and the ability to get scorching hot with the putter when it matters most. His approach game remains one of the best on Tour, ranking first in the field over the last eight weeks, and it’s no coincidence that whenever the putter joins the party, he’s immediately back in contention. While the T20 at the 3M Open doesn’t jump off the page, there were encouraging signs with four rounds in the 60s and a closing 66 to finish on a positive note. A shorter par-70 like Sedgefield is a much better fit than the bomber-friendly TPC Twin Cities, and the confidence from his Scottish Open victory just a few weeks ago suggests another run could be coming. At +3000, Tom offers plenty of value for a proven winner on this golf course. If the putter returns to even field average, his elite iron play gives him every opportunity to contend for a second Wyndham Championship. I won’t knock anyone with a first round leader or outright ticket this week. -C

Brooks Koepka
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (107), SCR (142), PUTT (116), P4 (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 28/MC/MC/WD
Wyndham Results: MC/6/38 (7 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/9/11/13/16/19/35/51/57/65/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Brooks is one of the biggest wild cards in the field this week. The talent is unquestioned, but the form is anything but. He withdrew before the 3M Open after missed cuts at both the U.S. Open and The Open, making his health and current game the biggest unknowns entering Sedgefield. In fact, he hasn’t gained strokes across all four major categories in a tournament since May, and with his FedEx Cup position sitting outside the playoff cutline, he’ll likely need a solo fourth or better to extend his PGA Tour season. If he tees it up, motivation certainly won’t be lacking. Course history offers some encouragement despite the long layoff. Koepka finished sixth here in 2016, closing with a Sunday 65, and has gained strokes on approach in all three Wyndham appearances while posting off-the-tee gains in two of them. The putter has been the consistent weakness at Sedgefield, losing strokes in every visit, but his elite ball-striking profile still fits the demands of this course when he’s anywhere near his best. At +4000, this is the definition of a boom-or-bust play. Personally, I would need to see a 60+ number to sprinkle this week. I recommend more daily fantasy over a betting ticket if desire is requested. -C

Aaron Rai
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude BOB, BOB 200+
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/MC/30/11
Wyndham Results: 5/1/MC/71 (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 14/17/19/20/24/30/35/40/MC
Insights: Rai returns to Sedgefield with some of the strongest course history in the field, but also one of the tougher profiles to trust this week. His last two Wyndham appearances have been outstanding, finishing first and fifth while producing massive approach spikes and opening with rounds of 65-65 in his victory before another opening 63 last year. He sat just two shots back entering the weekend in 2024 and three behind entering Sunday before closing with a 64, ultimately benefiting from Max Greyserman’s late collapse to successfully defend his position near the top of the leaderboard. When Rai has played well here, it’s been built on elite iron play, above-average driving and simply keeping the putter around field average. The concern is current form. Back-to-back missed cuts have cooled much of the momentum he carried earlier this season, and after a similar stretch of poor form before Augusta, he never truly contended. The course fit is undeniable, but asking Rai to immediately rediscover his best golf at +4000 feels like a leap of faith. I fully respect what he’s accomplished at Sedgefield and wouldn’t be surprised if familiarity sparks another good week, but from my perspective this is more of a hat tip than a betting opportunity. I’d rather wait to see signs that the current form is turning before jumping back on board. -C

Jackson Suber
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (101), PUTT (125), BOB 150175 (118)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 50/MC/28/6
Wyndham Results: MC (76-67, 2025)
Comp Results: 30/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Suber enters the Wyndham needing nothing short of a top-six finish to punch his ticket to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so the motivation couldn’t be any higher. While the results have cooled since his runner-up stretch earlier this summer, the upside remains evident. Just a month ago at the John Deere, he gained strokes across the board and finished sixth with a legitimate chance to win on Sunday. Since then, however, the game has flattened out. The irons took a step back after three straight positive approach weeks, and back-to-back negative putting performances have kept him from climbing leaderboards despite flashes of good golf. Course history and comparable venues don’t provide much reassurance either. He missed the cut here last year after opening 76-67, losing over two strokes on approach and another stroke off the tee, while his comp-course résumé has yet to produce a breakthrough outside of a 30th at this year’s Travelers. At +9000, the number is certainly tempting for a player with his talent, especially knowing he has already proven he can contend on the PGA Tour this season. Still, the current form doesn’t inspire enough confidence for me to buy in. -C

Davis Thompson
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (114), PUTT (123)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 8/7/MC/26
Wyndham Results: 11/12/22/MC (11 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 7/10/25/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: DT arrives at Sedgefield with his game trending in exactly the right direction. Back-to-back top-10 finishes have him knocking on the door of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, where he’ll likely need another top-six finish this week to extend his season. The encouraging signs are everywhere. He’s gained off the tee in four of his last five starts, on approach in each of his last four, and the putter has finally come alive with back-to-back positive weeks for the first time since the spring. Around-the-green play remains the weak spot, but that’s far less concerning at Sedgefield, where high Greens in Regulation percentages minimize the need for scrambling. Course history only strengthens the case. After missing the cut as a young professional, Thompson has improved every year with finishes of 22nd, 12th and 11th, opening 66-65 last year and sitting inside the top three entering the final round in 2024 before a quiet Sunday kept him out of the winner’s circle. His victory at the John Deere and success on Donald Ross layouts translate well to Sedgefield, while his elite wedge play from 75-175 yards perfectly matches the demands of this course. At +5500, this feels like one of the stronger values on the board. The form, course fit and playoff motivation all line up, making Thompson a popular pick this week and for good reason. -C

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Player Field

Patio Preview

Sedgefield Country Club
Greensboro, North Carolina

• Full field event, top 65 & ties make the cut

• Par 70, 7,100+ yards (short)

• Parkland, Donald Ross design with renovations by Kris Spence

• Greens: Bermuda

  • Undulating

  • About 6,000 sqft

  • Around 12 on Stimpmeter

• Rough: Bermuda

  • 2.5-3 inches

  • Most penal around the greens when scrambling

• 50+ bunkers with 6 water hazards

• Bermuda Fairways roughly 30 yards in width on average

• Short game (ARG and PUTT) are hardest areas to gain strokes to the field

• Easier than Tour average to gain strokes to the field on APP and OTT here

• Driver usage closer to 50% than 60% last 2 years, much below Tour average

• Driving accuracy above Tour average

• Good Drive % slight above Tour average

• GIR % above Tour Average

• Vast majority of shots from inside 175 yards

• Going for green % way above Tour average

• Scrambling rates slightly below Tour average

• Average made birdie putt distance 0.2-0.4 feet shorter than Tour average

• Higher 3-putt avoidance % than Tour average, but lower one-putt % than Tour average

• 4 Par 3s

  • Ranging from 174-235 yards

  • 2 of the 6 hardest holes

  • BOB% a few % higher than Tour average

• 12 Par 4s

  • Ranging from 374-507 yards

  • Only 4 of 12 holes with birdie rate north of 20%

  • 3 of 12 holes with bogey rate north of 20%

• 2 Par 5s

  • 529 & 545 yards

  • Average score around 4.5 or better

  • Over 50% birdie rate, closer to 60% most years (10-15% above Tour average)

  • 2 easiest holes on course

• Overall BOB% just about Tour average

Recent Wyndham Championship Results

2025: Cameron Young -22 (63-62-65-68); 6 Stroke Victory over Mac Meissner
2024: Aaron Rai -18 (65-65-68-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Max Greyserman
2023: Lucas Glover -20 (66-64-62-68); 2 Stroke Victory over Benny An & Henley
2022: Tom Kim -20 (67-64-68-61); 5 Stroke Victory over Huh & Im
2021: Kevin Kisner -15 (65-68-66-66); Playoff Victory over 5 Players
2020: Jim Herman -21 (66-69-61-63); 1 Stroke Victory over Billy Horschel
2019: J.T. Poston -22 (65-65-66-62); 1 Stroke Victory over Webb Simpson
2018: Brandt Snedeker -21 (59-67-68-65); 3 Stroke Victory over Pan & Simpson
2017: Henrik Stenson -22 (62-66-66-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Ollie Schniederjans
2016: Si Woo Kim -21 (68-60-64-67); 5 Stroke Victory over Luke Donald
2015: Davis Love III -17 (64-66-69-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Jason Gore

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy
Greens in Regulation%
Shots Gained: Putting (Bermuda)

Tier 2

Overall Proximity
Birdies or Better%
Bogey Avoidance
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Going for Green - Hit Green %

Tier 3

Par 4 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring
Approach inside 175 yards
3-putt Avoidance
Putting from 5-10 feet

Champ’s Course Comps

TPC Sawgrass
TPC River Highlands
TPC Twin Cities

Tournament Trends Since 2010

Odds
1-25: 2017, 2011
26-50: 2024, 2022, 2018, 2012
51-100: 2025, 2023, 2021, 2013
101+: 2020, 2019, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2010

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader by Round
R1: 13/16 (81%) within 5 shots (3/15 led)
R2: 13/16 (81%) within 3 shots (6/15 led)
R3: 16/16 (100%) within 4 shots (9/15 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
12/16 (75%) at least 1 Top 20 in their last 4 starts
11/16 (69%) at least 2 Top 30 in their last 4 starts
11/16 (69%) at least 3 made cuts in their last 4 starts
9/16 (56%) made the cut in their last start
7/16 (44%) at least 1 Top 5 in their last 4 starts
7/16 (44%) at least 2 Top 10 in last 4 starts
6/16 (38%) back-to-back made cuts in their last 2 starts
5/16 (31%) Top 30 in their last start
4/16 (25%) 0 missed cuts in their last 4 starts
2/16 (13%) WIN or 2nd in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Wyndham Championship History
15/16 (94%) at least 1 prior appearance
10/16 (63%) with 3 or fewer prior appearances
9/16 (56%) made the cut their last appearance
8/16 (50%) Top 10 in a prior appearance
7/16 (44%) at least 2 Top 25 finishes in prior appearances
6/16 (38%) at least 4 prior appearances
2/16 (13%) WIN or 2nd in a prior appearance

First Round Leader Splits
AM: 81% (2025, 2024, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, , 2011)
PM: 50% (2023, 2020, 2019, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2010)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Champ’s Early Top 10

Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Patrick Cantlay
Mac Meissner
Davis Thompson
Brooks Koepka
Hideki Matsuyama
Jackson Suber
Ryan Gerard
Zecheng Dou

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Broadcast Schedule

Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: Jake Knapp (Champ) vs Ben Griffin (Sammy)

Money leader: Champ leads +$3,264,210
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 17-13-3

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Final Models

Champ’s Top 10

Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Doug Ghim
Chris Gotterup
Patrick Cantlay
Ryo Hisatsune
Jacob Bridgeman
Jackson Suber
Zecheng Dou
Jake Knapp

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Subscriber Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Jake Knapp +2500 - 1.65u
Patrick Cantlay +3000 - 1.40u
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 (boosted to +3150) - 1.35u

Hat Tip
Cameron Young | Chris Gotterup | Si Woo Kim

First Round Leader - 0.50u each
Patrick Cantlay +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000

First Round 3-Balls - 1.55u each
Jacob Bridgeman +140 > Nicolai Hojgaard | Cam Davis
Aaron Wise +220 > Karl Vilips | Nico Echavarria

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Ben Griffin +5000 w/ 3pl* (0.7u)
JJ Spaun +5000 w/ 3pl* (0.7u)
Kevin Yu +10000 w/ 3pl* (0.4u)
*Bet365 each way market

First Round Leader
Jackson Suber +7400 (0.2u)

Additional Stats/Info

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Rasmus Hojgaard

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

Xander Schauffele

DFS Chalk

JJ Spaun
Jacob Bridgeman
Jackson Suber

DFS Pivots

Jackson Koivun
Russell Henley
Harris English

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Rocket Results: Finishes at the Rocket Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Albany GC, Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course) & The Summit Club

Chris Gotterup
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (118), BOB 125150 (118)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 18/11/1/30
Rocket Results: 26/67/49 (5 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 19/51/MC
Insights: Chris Gotterup arrives at the Rocket Classic with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field after another solid major showing at The Open. He's gained off the tee in each of his last four starts, including elite driving performances over his last three, while the approach play has remained comfortably above average in three of those events. The concern this week isn't current form—it's course history. In three previous trips to Detroit Golf Club, he's yet to record a top-20 finish, with inconsistent approach play preventing him from putting four rounds together despite consistently gaining off the tee. He did fire one of the low rounds of the day with a Saturday 65 here last season, showing the scoring ability is there, but two poor rounds have repeatedly taken him out of contention. At +1600, I think the price fully reflects his recent rise and doesn't leave much room for error. The models will love him, and I wouldn't fault anyone for backing him, but I'd rather pay up for CY or look elsewhere on the board. First Round Leader has some appeal given his ability to go low, but as an outright this is more of a respectful hat tip than a betting opportunity for me. -C

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (155), BOB 125150 (122), BOB 150175 (143), P3 (134)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 125150, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 18/MC/51/11
Rocket Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4/8/10/12/18/60
Insights: Rinse and repeat for Xander every week. I like Xander a lot, but I’m still waiting for the form to justify the cost. Now, in this field, his price makes way more sense, but the bigger issue is that he’s never played on this course. Moreover, he’s been very inconsistent on approach lately, losing significant strokes with his irons in half of his last six events. Not to mention, his putting has been dreadful over the last three and a half months — losing stokes in all but 2 starts. He’s finished no higher than 7th in that span because of the inconsistent overall profile. He’s a hat tip for me. I just need to see it first, and we’ve yet to see any type of ceiling performance from him since the first couple days at the Players. -S

Cameron Young
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (110), PUTT (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 2/47/43/46
Rocket Results: 46/6/2 (9 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/9/10/13/15/MC
Insights: Cameron Young returns to Detroit Golf Club as the betting favorite, and it's easy to see why. Since the Masters, he's been one of the best ball strikers on Tour, gaining consistently off the tee, on approach and around the greens, with the putter finally showing signs of life during his runner-up finish at The Open. That performance only reinforced the feeling that another victory is coming, and this venue fits his game perfectly. In three Rocket Classic appearances, he's recorded finishes of 2nd, 6th and 46th, shooting nine of his 12 rounds in the 60s, including a pair of low rounds of the day during his debut in 2022. Detroit Golf Club rewards elite drivers who can create birdie chances, and Young checks every box statistically. The only real question is the emotional hangover after coming so close at Royal Birkdale, but a return to a course where he's consistently contended could be exactly what he needs. At +1100, the price isn't exactly a gift, but everything points toward another week in the mix. If you can stomach the short odds, it's hard to argue against him, and I fully expect him to be in contention come Sunday. -C

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Additional Player Deep Dives available for Bettor Clubhouse Subscribers including Akshay Bhatia, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, Hideki Matsuyama, Jackson Suber, Michael Thorbjornsen!

Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 125150, ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/5/17/MC
Rocket Results: 26/2/MC (6 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64; FRL: 2024)
Comp Results: 4/9/11/14/MC/MC
Insights: Bhatia hasn’t been himself since his win at the API in early March. He comes into this event off an MC at the Open, where he lost strokes in every major SG category save ARG. He showed some flashes at the Travelers with a T5 finish, but that was his lone bright spot since the win almost four months ago. In fact, he has the same amount of missed cuts as Top 20s since then, which shows how up and down his game has been. He also has lost strokes OTT all but twice since early April. That said, this is a solid course for him. He missed the cut in his debut in 2023, finished T2 in 2024 and then finished T26 last year despite an absolutely awful showing around and on the greens, where he lost more than 4 strokes combined. All things considered, I like the idea of Bhatia this week, but the inconsistent form, specifically OTT and on APP, is likely going to keep me off. -S

Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (149), ARD (84), BOB 200+ (141)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP 125150, APP 150175, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 9/12/65/22
Rocket Results: 10/MC (4 of 6 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 19/19/25/41/MC/MC
Insights: Detroit is considered to be a bomber’s track, so Russ doesn’t exactly pop into mind as soon as I hear the words “Rocket Classic.” However, aside from carry distance off the tee, he should have the game everywhere else to compete here — even if he doesn’t have the most experience on this course. Back when he played here in 2022, he finished T10, gaining significantly (+5.2) with his irons and around the greens (+4.0). Putting was an issue for him that year, but his putter has been solid over the last month and a half, gaining at least 2 strokes on the greens in four of his last five events. That goes nicely with 5 straight gains on approach and four of five gains off the tee. If you want to go against the grain and be somewhat contrarian this week, Henley makes a lot of sense. Just know, you’re signing up for someone without a ton of distance off the tee, as well as someone that struggles compared to the field in approach from 200+ yards. Combined, that’s probably an uphill battle not worth climbing this week, but to each their own. -S

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (56), SCR (56), PUTT (101), P5 (52)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 6/9/44/MC
Rocket Results: 84/14/58/57/MC (8 of 18 Rds in 60s; Low: 67, 3 times)
Comp Results: 11/44/49/76/MC
Insights: SWK continues to produce one of the strongest statistical profiles on Tour, leading this week's field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Approach from 150-175 yards, Birdie or Better Percentage, Birdie Average and Par-4 Scoring. His recent form backs it up as well, with finishes of 44th, 9th and 6th, while gaining on approach in each of his last four starts and posting positive putting weeks in four of his last six. The question isn't current form—it's Detroit Golf Club. Despite five previous appearances, he's managed just one top-20 finish, with largely average ball-striking numbers and only one spike putting week leading to his T14. Last year's opening rounds of 68-68 showed the upside before a weekend of 75-73 dropped him down the board, and he also entered the final round inside the top 10 in 2022 before fading. It still feels like Si Woo is destined to win again before the end of 2026, but course history keeps me from getting overly aggressive at +2000. This is more of a respectful hat tip for me, and I'd rather wait for a better number at next week’s venue where he's historically thrived. -C

Jake Knapp
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 125150 (125), APP 150175 (107), ARD (125)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 125150, ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 13/MC/MC/55
Rocket Results: 4/31 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 61)
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Jake Knapp looks ready to make another run at Detroit Golf Club after showing encouraging signs at the 3M Open. He closed with a Sunday 62, one of the low rounds of the week, while gaining on approach for the third straight event and the sixth time in his last eight starts, including four spike performances. He's also gained off the tee in three consecutive tournaments, suggesting his game is trending back toward the level we saw earlier this season. Last year's T4 here proved just how well Detroit Golf Club suits his eye. After an opening 72, he fired a second-round 61—the low round of the day—and entered Sunday tied for second, just two shots off the lead, before ultimately finishing one shot shy of a playoff. He gained across every major strokes gained category for the week, highlighted by elite driving and explosive approach play. Now making his fourth consecutive start, it appears any lingering injury concerns are behind him, and this feels like another ideal spot to contend. At +3000, Knapp offers plenty of upside on a course where he knows he can go low, making him one of the more intriguing outright and first round leader options in the field. -C

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (123), TD (116), OTT/TD AVG (120), GIR (118), BS (123)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 125150, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/14/14/65
Rocket Results: 13/MC/WD/21/13 (9 of 15 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/5/6/17/17/18/25/59/MC
Insights: Dekiiii quietly arrives at the Rocket Classic playing some of his best golf of the season after finishing third at the 3M Open and posting back-to-back top-15s before that. Despite a disastrous opening round last week that included two balls in the water on the 18th, he bounced back with rounds of 65-65-64, showing the resilience and scoring ability that make him dangerous whenever his game starts trending. More importantly, he’s now gained strokes off the tee in three straight events, a significant development after that part of his game held him back for much of the year. If the driver continues cooperating, the rest of his profile is already in place. Detroit Golf Club has also produced encouraging signs. Hideki has gained significant strokes on approach in four of his five appearances, with nine of his 15 career rounds in the 60s, and he has consistently put himself in contention heading into the weekend. The concern, as always, is the putter, having lost strokes on the greens in three of those five starts, while his season-long driving and ball-striking metrics still lag behind the elite names in this field. Even so, when Hideki is finding fairways, few players can match his combination of iron play, scrambling and experience. At +3000, I’m happy to stay on board with another outright sprinkle, while expecting his odds to shorten if the current form continues over the next couple of weeks. -C

Jackson Suber
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (104), APP 150175 (120), PUTT (120), BOB 150175 (119)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 125150, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/28/6/30
Rocket Results: 6 (66-65-69-68, 2025)
Comp Results: MC
Insights: It’s not a matter of “if” for Jackson Suber, it’s a matter of “when.” The youngster has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but that’s not for lack of trying. In fact, he’s been right in the mix multiple times this season, specifically at the John Deere, Canadian Open and Bryon Nelson. He comes into this event off a missed cut at the 3M, but don’t let that fool you, he’s been in great form in the ball-striking department outside of last weekend, he’s hot with his irons, and he can roll it on the greens. The full body of work was on display last year in Detroit, when Suber finished T6 with gains across the board. Ahead of this week, two stats really stand out to me: 5th in field in overall proximity and 15th in field in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 24 rounds. As long as his OTT game is strong, he should be right in the mix. I like him in any market you can get, but specifically outright with each-way. -S

Michael Thorbjornsen
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (101), PUTT (123), BOB (107), BOB 125150 (117), P5 (115)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 40/7/MC/54
Rocket Results: 4/MC/MC (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 13/50
Insights: Another youngster expected to make noise on the PGA Tour, Michael Thorbjornsen is almost exactly the type of golfer that succeeds in Detroit. He bombs it off the tee, he’s great with his long irons, and he can get hot with his irons and go on scoring runs. Though he hasn’t gotten over the hump just yet, he’s been right there a couple times, notably in Phoenix in February, but it’s been a while since we’ve actually seen him threatening on the leaderboard outside of maybe the Scottish Open — where he finished T7. There was a point where his iron play was severely inconsistent, but that seems to have been fixed now with four positive approach events in his last five outings. The issue now is the putter, where he’s lost strokes seven of his last 10 events. Looking at course history, he missed the cut twice before finishing T4 last year with significant gains in every category. Trying to decipher all of this info is messy, as he’s been relatively inconsistent recently and on this course, but just know the profile matches the course. There is upside here. -S

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Patio Preview

Detroit Golf Club

• Not a signature event, but solid field

  • Cut: Top 65 and ties

• Par 70, ~7,400 yards

  • Scoring average about 70.25 last 5 years

  • Changed from P72 to 70

• Donald Ross design with Tom Doak renovations

• Greens: Bent/poa mix

  • ~6,700 avg sq ft

  • Average on Stimpmeter

• Long Bluegrass Rough, but not extremely penal

• Known as longer course that plays easy

  • Half of all holes with sub-10% bogey rate

• Two-thirds of holes play at or below par

• 4 Par 3s

  • L5 years average score: 3.02

  • Ranging from 160-233 yards

  • 2 of 4 hardest holes on course

    • 233-yard #11 hardest hole with 23% bogey rate and sub 9% birdie rate

• 10 Par 4s

  • L5 years average score: 3.94

  • Ranging from 372-489 yards

  • 4 of hardest 6 holes on course

  • Half of these holes are around 20% birdie rate or better

  • Only 1 P4 with a bogey rate of greater than 20%

• 4 Par 5s

  • L5 years average score: 4.52

  • As you would expect, the 4 easiest holes on course

  • 3 of the 4 holes with 40%+ birdie rate, all with 30%+ birdie rate

• Last 4 years: 3 of 4 with 80% driver usage

  • 2025: 86% driver usage

• Driving Accuracy and Good Drive % both 5%+ above Tour average

• Greens-in-Regulation % also 5%+ above Tour average

  • GIR from Rough almost 10% above Tour average

• Most popular proximity buckets

  • 50-125 yards: ~30%

  • 200+ yards: ~23%

• Scrambling rates about average, but scrambling won’t help you here (need birdies)

• Putting right at Tour average, but crucial for scoring

• Birdie-to-Bogey ratio 2025: 2.14

Rocket Classic Results

2025: Aldrich Potgieter -22 (62-70-65-69); Playoff Victory over Greyserman & Kirk
2024: Cameron Davis -18 (68-66-66-70); 1 Stroke Victory over 4 Players
2023: Rickie Fowler -24 (67-65-64-68); Playoff Victory over Hadwin & Morikawa
2022: Tony Finau -26 (64-66-65-67); 5 Stroke Victory over 3 Players
2021: Cameron Davis -18 (68-68-67-67); Playoff Victory over Merritt & Niemann
2020: Bryson DeChambeau -23 (66-67-67-65); 3 Stroke Victory over Matthew Wolff
2019: Nate Lashley -25 (63-67-63-70); 6 Stroke Victory over Doc Redman

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Putting
Driving Distance
Birdies or Better%

Tier 2

Overall Proximity
Bogey Avoidance
Good Drive %
Approach 50-150 yards

Tier 3

Approach 200+ yards
3-putt Avoidance
Putting inside 10’
Shots gained: Easy courses

Champ’s Course Comps

Albany GC
Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course)
The Summit Club

Rocket Classic Tournament Trends

Odds
1-25: 2023, 2022, 2020
51-100: 2024
101+: 2025, 2021, 2019

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader by Round
R1: 4/7 (57%) trailed by at least 3 shots (3/7 led)
R2: 6/7 (86%) within 2 shots (1/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 1 shot (4/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/7 (86%) made the cut in their last start
6/7 (86%) with at least 1 Top 30 finish in their last 4 starts
4/7 (57%) with at least 1 Top 20 finish in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Rocket Classic History
5/7 (71%) at least 1 prior appearance
3/7 (43%) with at least 2 prior appearances
3/7 (43%) missed the cut in their last appearance
2/7 (29%) Top 20 in a prior apperance
1/7 (14%) Top 10 in a prior appearance
0/7 (0%) Top 15 in their last appearance

First Round Leader Splits
AM: 71% (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019)
PM: 57% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2020)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Champ’s Early Top 10

Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Chris Gotterup
Patrick Cantlay
Jacob Bridgeman
Ryo Hisatsune
Rickie Fowler
Jackson Suber
Nicolai Hojgaard
Jake Knapp

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Broadcast Schedule

Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa (C) vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Max Homa (Champ) vs Corey Conners (Sammy)

Money leader: Champ leads +$3,300,730
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 16-13-3

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Final Models

Champ’s Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Doug Ghim
Keith Mitchell
Jackson Suber
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Tom Kim
Jake Knapp
Beau Hossler
Zecheng Dou
Max Homa

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Subscriber Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Hideki Matsuyama +3000 - 1.35u
Corey Conners +5000 - 0.80u
Jackson Suber +5000 - 0.80u
Max Homa +6000 - 0.70u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Maverick McNealy | Keith Mitchell

Finshing Position
Max Homa U45.5 (-120) - 3u

First Round Leader
Corey Conners +5000 - 0.45u
Hideki Matsuyama +5000 - 0.50u
Max Homa +6000 - 0.40u

First Round 3-Balls - 2u each
Lee Hodges +150 > Vince Whaley | Taylor Moore
Ben James +125 > Adrien Dumont de Chassart | Patrick Fishburn

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Hideki Matsuyama +4500 w/ 3pl* (0.8u)
Corey Conners +6600 w/ 3pl* (0.6u)
Jackson Suber +7000 w/ 3pl* (0.6u)
Max Homa +7500 w/ 3pl* (0.6u)
*Bet365 each way market

First Round Leader
Hideki Matsyuama +4500 (0.1u)
Max Homa +5500 (boosted to +8300 with 50% token on FD) (0.1u)
Jackson Suber +5500 (boosted to +6500 with 30% token on FD) (0.1u)
Corey Conners +6600 (0.1u)

Champ and I did not look at each other’s work or consult with one another this week. I narrowed my list to 5 names, then as I added my models to our draft document for publishing, I saw 4 of the 5 names from my list on Champ’s betting card. Just decided to keep it simple and go with those 4. Sometimes, the universe gives us the hints, we just have to pick up on them. Big week coming for TBCH.

Additional Stats/Info

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Jason Day

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

Maverick McNealy

DFS Chalk

Scottie Scheffler
Kurt Kitayama
Johnny Keffer
William Mouw
Lucas Glover
Zac Blair

DFS Pivots

Keith Mitchell
Gary Woodland
Tony Finau
Adrian Dumont De Chassart
Hao-Tong Li
Thorbjorn Olesen

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
3M Results: Finishes at the 3M Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort (Cooperhead Course), TPC River Highlands and Muirfield Village Golf Club

Kurt Kitayama
Odds: +2300
Stats: Top 75!! exclude ARD (96), ARD/SCR AVG (84), PUTT (102), BOB 200+ (100), P5 (142)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude P5
Top 25% Rank: All exclude PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB , BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 40/44/25/53
3M Results: 1/6 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 60)
Comp Results: 22/25/31/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Kurt Kitayama returns to TPC Twin Cities with arguably the best course history in the field. Last year’s victory was fueled by a Saturday 60 and a clutch bunker save on the 72nd hole to secure the title, while he also finished sixth here in 2022. Across those two appearances, he’s gained consistently off the tee and on approach, proving this layout perfectly complements his aggressive style. Even with an underwhelming run of results since the PGA Championship, the underlying ball striking has remained solid, gaining off the tee in each of his last four starts and on approach in three of them. The biggest hurdle this week is the price. After cashing a 30/1 ticket on Kitayama last year, asking bettors to jump in again at +2300 is a much tougher sell. “Defending champion” route I don’t expect to be over popular this week, but I’m a bit more cautious despite loving the course fit. His putting has cooled and the recent finishes don’t quite justify the number, making this a respectful hat tip. That said if the irons heat up the way they have here before, don’t be surprised to see Kitayama back on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday and early Thursday. -C

Maverick McNealy
Odds: +2700
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (113), APP 175200 (143), PROX (118), APP AVG (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/55/32/10
3M Results: MC/3/49/16 (6 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 5/10/17/30/36/45/55/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Mav enters the 3M Open in some pretty shaky ball-striking form, having lost over 5 strokes on Approach in his last 2 starts combined. In fact, irons have been an issue for him for essentially the entire season at this point, losing strokes on Approach in nine of his last 13 events. As such, the ceiling really hasn’t been there for him in 2026. His best finishes are 10th at Memorial and Farmers, and his course history is a mixed bag. Having said that, if he somehow found his irons after his international journey back from a missed cut at the Open, his short game is plenty good enough to do the heavy lifting. Proximity will be key for Mav this week, but we haven’t seen much of his top form this year, so at this price, I have to be out. -S

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +275
Stats: Top 25!!! exclude APP 175200 (80), APP 200+ (38), PROX (103), APP AVG (47), BOB 175200 (101), BOB AVG (36)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/MC/2/4
3M Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/1/1/2/3/3/4/6/12/13/22/29/47/MC/MC
Insights: After spiking to 8/1 at the Open, Scottie returns to the range in which we have grown accustomed to seeing him, going off currently at shorter than 3/1 despite not having played this event — not that that matters for the World #1. I’m not entirely sure why he’s playing this event, but I fully expect him to finally get over the little hurdle he’s found and earn his first victory since the AmEx in January. It’s not like his form has been bad, as he’s finished T4 or better nine other times this season. Fatigue is a slight concern, but the skill gap in this tournament is fairly wide, and that’s depicted by the delta in the betting odds from Scottie to the second-favorite at longer than 25/1. Honestly, I wouldn’t argue with you if you made this a “without Scottie” market week. If you somehow have him left in OAD, wait for the playoff events to use him, but don’t be afraid to fire him up on your betting card and DFS lineups. -S

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Corey Conners

Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, PUTT, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, BS
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/52/7/23
3M Results: 46 (70-64-70-70, 2019)
Comp Results: 7/8/9/13/14/16/20/21/22/25/27/39/53/65/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Corey Conners heads to the 3M Open with his ball striking trending at exactly the right time. He followed a seventh-place finish at the Travelers with 14th at The Open, gaining with his irons in both starts while producing one of his better approach weeks of the season at Royal Birkdale. TPC Twin Cities should suit his fairways-and-greens style, and although he’s only made one prior appearance here, he ranked first in Ball Striking and fifth Tee-to-Green in 2019 despite finishing just 46th after a cold week on the greens. The putter will always dictate Conners’ ceiling, but this tournament has rewarded elite ball strikers who simply find a serviceable week on the greens. That’s exactly the blueprint I’m betting on. His game feels very similar to what we saw at the Travelers, where consistent tee-to-green play kept him in contention throughout the week. Add in extra motivation with Presidents Cup qualification on the line, and I like his chances to contend. At +4500, Conners is one of my favorite placement bets this week along with a sprinkle on the Outright. -C

Lucas Glover
Odds: +11000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 5/3/66/MC
3M Results: MC/MC/MC/7 (4 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 4/8/8/9/11/11/13/18/19/20/20/24/25/31/33/35/36/37/38/38/44/45/45/46/46/47/48
Insights: The Glove has been playing some good golf of late, finishing T3 at the Deere before a 5th at the ISCO. Sammy was on him at the Deere and was able to cash an each-way on him, while Champ was on him at ISCO — where he was in it until the very end. We’ve seen plenty of Glover in the last couple weeks to know it was the putting that ultimately let him down in both events, especially on the weekends. For reference, he lost just short of 5.5 strokes on the greens Saturday and Sunday at ISCO after losing more than two strokes on those days at the Deere. This price is appealing yet again in a weak field — though not as weak as the previous two in which he played — but I would only bet outrights if you’re including each-ways. Otherwise, if you’re interested in betting Glover this week, encompass his potential upside with a placement ladder from T30 to T10 or T5, depending on your risk tolerance. I wouldn’t blame you if you were pessimistic about his chances this week like I am, though. -S

Max Homa
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude TG (107), APP (120), GIR (104), PROX (140), P3 (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 28/39/2/20
3M Results: 39/3/MDF (9 of 11 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/6/6/22/37/51/54/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: A couple months ago, you would have looked at Homa’s statistical profile and seen a lot of red and negative numbers, but he’s found some form of late — posting four top-30 results in his last five events with plenty of green in his profile. That includes his solo 2nd at the Deere, where he gained significantly across every major Strokes Gained category. He was even solid at the Open despite a T28, as it was his -2.2 strokes lost around the greens that really held him back. At 50/1, there are worse bets you could make, especially considering he has a T3 finish here — even if it was back in 2020. Ideally, you could pair that with 5 or 8 places and still get somewhere in the 45/1 range, which I don’t mind if you’re not planning on betting Scottie solo. -S

Sungjae Im
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BA
Top 25% Rank: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/MC/71/30
3M Results: MC/MC/2/15 (6 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 twice; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 3/4/4/8/10/16/21/29/29/30/32/41/57/58/61/63/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Open was the first event since mid-March that Sungjae Im gained strokes with his irons. Yes, he had lost strokes on Approach in 13 straight events prior, which is why he has missed more cuts than he has finished Top 10 in 2026. At 50/1, the price is very appealing, especially in this field, but I admit that’s due to name recognition alone. If I’m being honest with myself, I want to see more sustained ball-striking form before I invest in Sungjae for the first time this year, though I will say, a T14 finish with solid gains across the board last week is a good place to start. -S

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (125), TD (120), OTT/TD AVG (123), GIR (122) BS (131)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT/TD AVG, BS
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/14/65/43
3M Results: 30/WD/7 (5 of 9 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/8/13/13/14/16/22/23/30/38/43/45/62/MC/MC
Insights: Hideki Matsuyama quietly enters the 3M Open in solid form after back-to-back top-15 finishes at the Travelers and The Open. His game has been trending in the right direction with gains off the tee in consecutive starts, strong approach play in four of his last five events and one of his most consistent around-the-green stretches of the season. TPC Twin Cities has also treated him well, finishing seventh here on debut and producing a pair of opening 64s during his career, proving he can get off to fast starts on this layout. As always with Hideki, the putter will determine just how high he climbs. His ball-striking profile fits this course well, and if he can put together a third straight positive driving week while keeping the irons warm, he’ll have every chance to contend. The outright price isn’t a steal, but when Hideki is in form, few players are better equipped to stare down the strongest fields on Sunday. I’m comfortable backing him this week, with First Round Leader, Each-Way and the Outright all firmly in play. -C

Keith Mitchell
Odds: +3200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (112), ARD (97), SCR (79), ARD/SCR AVG (88), PUTT (99)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 200+, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/51/22/4
3M Results: MC/46/5/5/MC/66 (14 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 3 times)
Comp Results: 6/11/17/18/22/22/48/48/54/56/69/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Keith Mitchell returns to TPC Twin Cities looking for what may be one of his best remaining chances to finally break through in 2026. The underlying metrics continue to impress, gaining off the tee in all four recent starts while the approach game has remained consistently strong. His Open Championship ended with a missed cut, but after skipping the Scottish Open he should arrive refreshed at a course where he’s twice finished fifth and proven he can contend against quality fields. If there’s one thing Mitchell has shown over the years, it’s that this layout fits his eye. The profile is very “Keith Mitchell”—elite tee-to-green, enough birdie chances to win, and the putter ultimately deciding his fate. His approach play has improved over his last two visits, while the driver has been surprisingly quieter than expected at TPC Twin Cities. If the flat stick cooperates for four rounds, this is absolutely a tournament he can win. I’m circling both First Round Leader and the Outright this week, and if Mitchell is going to add another PGA Tour victory, this feels like one of his best opportunities to do it. -C

Gary Woodland
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P3, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P3, P5
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/71/7/36
3M Results: 20/37/MC/11 (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 3 times)
Comp Results: 1/4/5/6/8/14/16/20/21/22/23/24/29/33/36/36/38/42/45/47/49/52/57/58/63/71
Insights: Gary Woodland returns to one of his better venues looking to rebound after a disappointing finish to the links swing. His missed cut at The Open and 71st at the Scottish Open were his two worst results since a top-10 at the U.S. Open, but a return to the States and a course that clearly suits his eye could be exactly what he needs. Woodland has teed it up here four straight years, posting finishes of 11th, 20th and 37th, with 10 of his 14 career rounds in the 60s and multiple weekends spent inside the top 10. The biggest hurdle remains converting good ball striking into four complete rounds. He’s lost strokes putting here in three of four appearances, while the driver has generally been solid rather than dominant. The encouraging sign is his approach play has improved over his last two trips to TPC Twin Cities, and if he can recapture anything close to the form he showed at the U.S. Open, another top-10 is well within reach. At +5500, I’d lean each-way, Top 20s, Matchups and 3-Balls over an outright, but don’t be surprised if Woodland bounces back and spends another weekend hanging around the first page of the leaderboard. -C

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