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The Dunes Golf and Beach Club
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

• Opposite Field Event

  • Cut: Top 65 and ties

• Robert Trent Jones Sr. Design (Rees Jones Renovations 2003, 2013, 2018, 2023)

  • Par 71

  • 7,300-7,350 yards

• Greens: Champion UltraDwarf Bermudagrass

  • 6,000 Square Feet Average

• 70+ bunkers and water danger on 1/3 of the course

• Mix between Coastal and Parkland layout with wind as primary defense

• Driver usage: Tour average, but favor accuracy > distance with wind

• Driving Accuracy & Good Drive % slightly above Tour average importance

• Approach distribution: primary bucket 125–175 yards, secondary bucket 175–200

  • Wedge and mid-irons more than long irons (less than 20% from 200+)

• GIR% about Tour average

• Scrambling: above average importance (runoffs + tight Bermuda lies)

• Birdie-to-Bogey ratio: 1.39 last 2 years

  • scoring available, but mistakes compound quickly in wind

Hole Breakdown

Par 3s (4)
Mixed yardages, typically mid-to-long irons
Wind-exposed → can play over par depending on conditions

Par 4s (11)
Range: ~360–480 yards
Majority play at or slightly over par
A few shorter holes offer wedge opportunities — must convert

Par 5s (3)
All reachable depending on wind
Clear scoring holes: birdie or you’re losing ground
Eagle chances present but require precise second shots

What It Demands

• Ball flight control > raw distance

• Strong wedge + short iron proximity

• Bermuda scrambling when greens are missed

• Comfort playing in coastal wind variability

• Ability to capitalize on Par 5s while avoiding big numbers elsewhere

Champ’s Insights

You’ll see players hang around even without elite distance, and then separate with clean wedges and smart misses. Opposite-field events tend to reward well-rounded grinders over star power, and this track leans into that even more. This sets up as a “who stays patient in the wind” type of event.

Harbour Town is precision through trees, Myrtle Beach is precision through air — same emphasis on control, just a different test.

Expect volatility early if wind blows, then a leaderboard that rewards guys who limit mistakes and stack up plenty of birdies where four rounds in the 60s will be paramount.

Myrtle Beach Classic Tournament Results

2025: Ryan Fox -15 (65-70-68-66); Playoff Victory over Harry Higgs & Mac Hughes
2024: Chris Gotterup -22 (66-64-65-67); 6 Stroke Victory over Docherty & Thompson

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %

Tier 2

Total Driving
Scrambling
Proximity to Hole
Approach 100-200 yards
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie-or-Better %
3-Putt Avoidance (Bermuda)

Tier 3

Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Par 4 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring
SG: Total (Coastal Courses)

Champ’s Course Comps

Vidanta Vallarta
Memorial Park Golf Course
Caves Valley Golf Club

Myrtle Beach Classic Tournament Trends

Odds
2025: +4000
2024: +4500

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 2/2 (100%) within 2 shots (0/2 led)
R2: 2/2 (100%) within 3 shots (1/2 led)
R3: 2/2 (100%) within 3 shots (1/2 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
2/2 (100%) made the cut in their last start
2/2 (100%) with at least 2 missed cuts in last 4 starts
1/2 (50%) with a Top 30 in last 4 starts
0/2 (0%) with a Top 10 in last 4 starts

Winner’s Myrtle Beach Classic History
1/2 (50%) WON as a debutant
1/2 (50%) with a Top 5 in a prior appearance

First Round Leader Group Splits
AM: 100% (2025, 2024)
PM: 50% (2024)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.

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Quail Hollow Golf Club
Charlotte, North Carolina

• Par 71, 7,600+ yards

• 2nd straight signature event

• 72 Players, No Cut

• Greens: Poa Trivialis (Bermuda still dormant)

  • 6,600 sq ft

• 60+ bunkers, 6-7 holes with water

• Narrow, tree-lined fairways with bunkers

• Given the distance, long irons will be frequently used

• “Green Mile”

  • One of the most difficult closing 3-hole stretches in Tour rotation

    • 16: 520+ yard Par 4 with average score of 4.33 last year

    • 17: 220+ yard Par 3 with average score of 3.4 last year

    • 18: 490+ yard Par 4 with average score of 4.41 last year

• Driver-heavy course

  • 86%+ Driver usage over last 5 years — nearly 20% higher than tour average

    • Last year was over 90%

  • Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee a close second to SG: Approach in terms of importance this week

• Greens in Regulation 11% lower than Tour average last year

  • Going for Green - Hit Green 9.5% lower than Tour average last year

• Approach from 175+ yards will make up a majority of 2nd shots

• 2025 average proximity to hole from around the green: 8.8 feet (Tour average 7.7)

• Average made birdie putt distance in 2025: 8.9 feet (0.6 below Tour average)

• Scoring average (past 5 years): 71.90

• Birdie-or-better 3.6% below Tour average

• Birdie-to-Bogey ratio just 0.77 last year

• Four Par 3s

  • Ranging from 184 to 249 yards

  • 5-year average score: 3.15

  • All with at least a 15% bogey rate

• 11 Par 4s

  • Ranging from 346 to 506 yards

  • Average score: 4.12

  • Only 2 of them play under par (#8, #14)

  • 7 have a bogey rate north of 20%

• Three Par 5s

  • Ranging from 546 to 592 yards

  • Average score: 4.65

  • All with at least a 37% birdie rate

  • #7 5% eagle rate with nearly a 3% double rate

• Ideal statistical profile for success: Someone who is top 25% in the field in distance with elite long iron accuracy and a very good to excellent short game

Quail Hollow Golf Club Tournament History

2025: Scottie Scheffler -11 (69-68-65-71); 5 Stroke Victory over 3 Players
2024: Rory McIlroy -17 (67-68-67-65); 5 Stroke Victory over Xander Schauffele
2023: Wyndham Clark -19 (67-67-63-68); 4 Stroke Victory over Xander Schauffele
2022: Presidents Cup
2021: Rory McIlroy -10 (72-66-68-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Abraham Ancer
2020: Cancelled due to COVID
2019: Max Homa -15 (69-63-70-67); 3 Stroke Victory over Joel Dahmen
2018: Jason Day -12 (69-67-67-69); 2 Stroke Victory over Watney & Wise
2017: Justin Thomas -8 (73-66-69-68); 2 Stroke Victory over 3 Players

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Approach
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Total Driving
Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
ARG Proximity

Tier 2

Shots Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Carry Distance
Approach 150+ yards
Greens in Regulation
Birdies or better%
Bogey Avoidance

Tier 3

Scrambling
P5 Birdies or better
SG: Par 4
Club Head Speed
Putting 5-15 feet (Poa Triv)

Champ’s Course Comps

The Los Angeles Country Club (North Course)
Trump National Doral
Oakmont Country Club

Quail Hollow Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25: 2025, 2024, 2021, 2018
25-50: 2017
50-100: 2023
100+: 2019

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/7 (86%) within 6 shots (0/7 led)
R2: 7/7 (100%) within 5 shots (1/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 2 shots (4/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/7 (86%) with a Top 30 in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) made the cut in their last start
4/7 (57%) with a Top 10 in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with 2 Top 10 in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with a Top 5 in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with multiple MC in their last 4 starts
2/7 (29%) registered a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Quail Hollow History
6/7 (86%) with at least 1 prior tournament appearance
5/7 (71%) made the cut in their last appearance
4/7 (57%) with a Top 10 in a prior appearance
3/7 (43%) with multiple Top 10 in prior appearances
2/7 (29%) with a Top 10 in their last appearance
2/7 (29%) with a WIN in a prior appearance

First Round Leader Group Splits
1-16: 71% (2024, 2023, 2021, 2019, 2018)
17+: 71% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2019, 2017)
*results can include instances where FRL from both Tee Groups, both get credited with a win.

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Scorecard

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (C Kim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
The Masters: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +$120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +$91,630.83
Cadillac Championship: Scottie Scheffler (Champ) vs Justin Rose (Sammy)

Money leader: Sammy leads +$67,559.83
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 9-7-1

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Champ’s Crew

Win
Hideki Matsuyama +3000 - 1.30u
Adam Scott +3000 - 1.30u
Viktor Hovland +4000 - 1u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Cameron Young | Collin Morikawa

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Collin Morikawa +3000 (w/ 3pl)* (1.4u)
Justin Rose +5500 (w/ 3pl)* (1u)
JJ Spaun +9000 (w/ 3pl)* (0.5u)
Daniel Berger +16000 (w/ 3pl)* (0.4u)

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Doral Results: Finishes at Trump National Doral
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Harding Park, The Los Angeles Country Club & Quail Hollow Club

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (89), SCR (79), PUTT (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/7/5/7
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/14/16/50/MC
Insights: The biggest question with Collin right now is his health. That said, the form hasn’t really fallen off aside from the WD after 1 hole at the Players, as he’s finished T7 and T4 since then despite not looking quite right. On a course that demands so much distance, Collin may not be the best fit, but what he lacks in power, he makes up for in elite approach play — gaining strokes to the field with his irons in every measured event this season. The putter had even been on a roll up until Heritage, where he hemorrhaged strokes on the greens. All things considered, the price seems very appealing for a player as in-form as Collin, especially as a guy that has won in Florida, but the injury concerns mixed with the questionable course fit probably will keep me off again this week. EDIT: the longer the week goes, the more interested I am becoming in Collin as a contrarian bet/DFS play. -S

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (65), APP 175200 (60), APP 200+ (141), PROX (145), APP AVG (84)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+, PROX; Top 25 exclude DD, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/2/22/24
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/3/4
Insights: Scottie hasn’t won a golf tournament since January 25th — just over 3 months ago. The old Scottie would have 5 wins by now. What gives? In all seriousness, there were a couple questionable weeks for Scottie, specifically his approach play, but all is well in the world now with back-to-back 2nd place finishes in Augusta and Hilton Head — 2 very different styles of golf courses. On a course demanding not only distance, but precision with long irons and a great around-the-green game, Scottie usually would set up perfectly at a course like Doral. That said, he’s 66th in the field in Approach from 200+ over his last 24 rounds. Even with the T2 finishes in his last 2 starts, he’s 69th in the field in Approach from 200+ over his last 8 rounds, so the long irons have been a struggle — which is going to come into play on the Par 3s specifically this week. I’m not sure what to make of the long iron issue, but let’s get one thing clear: Scottie is still Scottie. He’s #1 in the field in SG: T2G this week, as well as 2nd in Bogey Avoidance on these types of long tracks. Not to mention, he’s the best in the field in SG: ARG. With wins at a few comps like API, Players and Quail, I’m not going to talk you off any Scottie exposure this week, but I’m also approaching it with some caution given his long irons issues. - S

Cameron Young
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (68), BOB 200+ (69)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 25/3/1/3
Doral Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 32/34/47/59
Insights: Cameron Young lands at Doral in a spot that makes a ton of sense on paper — and just enough hesitation underneath to keep things interesting. The form is strong (25/3/1/3), and the profile is exactly what you want here: gaining OTT, APP, and T2G in 4/4, with the putter positive in 3/4. This is a driver-heavy, long, Bermuda setup where his length and ball-striking should shine. Add in elite Florida results (win at Sawgrass, 3rd at Bay Hill, 2nd at Innisbrook, 4th at PGA National), and the fit checks out. The concern is where things can go sideways. Comp results haven’t matched expectations, and when he’s struggled, it’s been approach consistency and around-the-green play — both areas Doral can expose. The good news: those have trended up lately, with improved putting and his best ARD showing of the season at Heritage in his last start. There’s also context. The Masters letdown was expected after a final pairing with Rory McIlroy — this feels more like a reset than a warning sign. At +1200, you’re paying for the ceiling. No discount, and likely popular. Great fit fit, high ceiling, slight discomfort at the price — your call if you ride now or wait for Quail. -C

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Field List

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Trump National Doral - Blue Monster Course
Miami, Florida

• Rich history on PGA Tour

  • Hosted Doral Open every year from 1962-2006

  • 2007-2016 was WGC-Cadillac Championship

  • Has not hosted a PGA event since

• Dick Wilson design with Gil Hanse renovation in 2014

  • Updated to bunkering turf

  • Lengthened some tee boxes

• Par 72 and 7,700+ yards

  • Will be the longest course on Tour this year

  • Can play even longer with high Florida winds

• 72 players with no cut

• Greens: Bermuda

  • Large and undulating

  • 12 or higher on Stimpmeter

• High number of bunkers (100+)

• Course that demands distance off the tee as well as precision with long irons

• In 2016, more than 65% of the total approach shots were from 150+

  • Nearly 30% of approach shots were from 200+

• Driving Accuracy can be difficult here due to driver-heavy nature of the course

• Scrambling will come into play with long irons so frequently used, even with big greens

• Approach putting will be crucial

• 2016 Par 3 scoring average: 3.13

• 2016 Par 4 scoring average: 4.12

• 2015 Par 5 scoring average: 4.78
  

Most Recent Tournament Results at Doral

2016: Adam Scott -12 (68-66-73-69); 1 Stroke Victory over Bubba Watson
2015: Dustin Johnson -9 (68-73-69-69); 1 Stroke Victory over JB Holmes
2014: Patrick Reed -4 (68-75-69-72); 1 Stroke Victory over Donaldson & B Watson
2013: Tiger Woods -19 (66-65-67-71); 2 Stroke Victory over Steve Stricker
2012: Justin Rose -16 (69-64-69-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Bubba Watson
2011: Nick Watney -16 (67-70-68-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Dustin Johnson
2010: Ernie Els -18 (68-66-70-66); 4 Stroke Victory over Charl Schwartzel

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Driving Distance

Tier 2

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (Very long courses)
Bogey Avoidance (Very long courses)
Driving Accuracy
Greens-in-Regulation%
Approach 150-200
Approach 200+
Scrambling%
ARG Proximity

Tier 3

Approach Putt
3-Putt Avoidance

Champ’s Course Comps

TPC Harding Park
The Los Angeles Country Club
Quail Hollow Club

Cadillac Championship Tournament Trends

Odds
0-20: 2016, 2015, 2013, 2011
21-50: 2012, 2010
51-100: 2014

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/7 (86%) within 3 shots (2/7 led)
R2: 6/7 (86%) within 2 shots (4/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 3 shots (3/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) with a Top 20 in their last 4 starts
6/7 (86%) made the cut in their last start
6/7 (86%) with a Top 5 in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) made the cut in each of their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with a Top 2 finish in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with a Top 10 in their last start
1/7 (14%) with multiple missed cuts in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Trump National Doral History
6/7 (86%) made at least 4 prior appearances
5/7 (71%) with a Top 5 in a prior appearance
4/7 (57%) with at least 2 Top 5 prior finishes
2/7 (29%) WON in a prior appearance
1/7 (14%) WON in their DEBUT appearance

First Round Leader Group Splits
1-10: 43% (2016, 2013, 2010)
11+: 86% (2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.

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Scorecard

Weather

Weather provided by Wind Finder

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (C Kim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
The Masters: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Andrew Novak (Sammy) vs Marco Penge (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$24,131
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 8-7-1

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Free Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Wyndham Clark | Taylor Moore +2250 - 1.55u
Matt Wallace | Marco Penge +2500 - 1.45u

Hat Tip
Matt Fitzpatrick | Alex Fitzpatrick
Brooks Koepka | Shane Lowry
Michael Thorbjornsen | Karl Vilips

Sammy’s Selections

Passing this week

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Final Models

Champ

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Top 10

Matt Fitzparick | Alex Fitzpatrick
Ryan Gerard | Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Haotong Li | Jordan Smith
Matt McCarty | Mac Meissner
Kevin Roy | Max McGreevy
Sam Stevens | Zach Bauchou
Sahith Theegala | Aaron Rai
Wyndham Clark | Taylor Moore
Michael Thorbjornsen | Karl Vilips
Matt Wallace | Marco Penge

Subscriber Bets

Champs’ Crew

FRL
Wyndham Clark | Taylor Moore +3000 - 0.50u
Keith Mitchell | Brandt Snedeker +3000 - 0.50u
Matt Wallace | Marco Penge +3000 - 0.50u

Sammy’s Selections

Passing this week

Additional Stats/Info & DFS

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Patrick Fishburn | Zac Blair

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

Aaron Rai | Sahith Theegala

No reliable DFS sources this week due to team event. DFS info will resume next week.

PGA Championship Lookahead

The PGA Championship will be played May 14-17 at Aronimink Golf Club just outside of Philadelphia for the first time since 1962 when Gary Player won the title. This will be the first time the course has hosted a PGA event since the 2018 BMW Championship, won by Keegan Bradley.

Aronimink is a Donald Ross design that forces players to think and be creative on almost every shot, especially after Gil Hanse’s redesign in 2017 that restored the course’s original design and feel.

Set up as a Par 70, the course measures around 7,250 yards with over 150 bunkers and slow Bentgrass greens that are fairly large in size (8,000+ square feet). The fescue rough isn’t known to be extremely penal, but we’ll see what length the grass is grown to for this year’s major.

Overall, this course isn’t set up like Augusta or Oakmont. It’s going to yield more scoring, but it’s also going to take some strategy and creativity to get there.

Around-the-Green play is the most difficult here, but if you’re hitting these large greens repeatedly, then you’re not going to have to worry about that.

Only 2 Par 5s. Scoring will be needed on those holes, but will also need to come from the 12 Par 4s. Par 4 birdie-or-better% will be weighted in Sammy’s model.

We’re going to be targeting elite ball-strikers with spike putting upside.

Quick Hits:

• Only 2 of the last 12 PGA Championship winners were older than 33

• 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous PGA Championship Top 10

• 10 of the last 12 winners finished 20th or better in their previous start

• 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 top 10 finishes that season

• 2018 BMW had a 22.7% birdie-or-better rate and a 2.18 birdie-to-bogey ratio

Players to start considering for OAD at the PGA Championship:

• Scottie Scheffler

• Xander Schauffele

• Tommy Fleetwood

• Patrick Reed
  

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Zurich Results: Finishes at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Accorida Golf Narashino Country Club, Grand Reserve Golf Club & PGA National Resort (The Champion)

Matt Fitzpatrick (A) & Alex Fitzpatrick (B)
Odds: +1200
Stats (A): Top 25!!!! exclude APP 175200 (48), APP 200+ (36), PUTT (65), BOB 175200 (43)
Stats (B): N/A
Rank (A): Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude PUTT
Rank (B): N/A
SG Gains (A): OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
SG Gains (B): No SG for last 4 DPWT Starts
FORM (A): 1/18/1/2
FORM (B): 1/6/14/23
Zurich Results (A): MC/11/19
Zurich Results (B): MC /11/19
Comp Results (A): 21/68/75/MC
Comp Results (B): N/A
Insights: Fitzmagics roll into the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in elite combined form, and it starts with Matt. He’s been one of the best players in the world over his last four starts—2 wins and a 2nd—and the profile backs it up. Gaining OTT, APP, and ARD in 4/4 with putting positive in 3/4, and on the season sits 3rd T2G, 6th APP, 1st Ball Striking, 7th BOB, 10th Bogey Avoidance. That’s exactly what you want anchoring both formats this week, especially alternate shot where control matters most. Alex is the variable, but trending the right way. Win in his last start and a steady build leading in (6/14/23), plus multiple rounds in the mid-60s. Over the last 14 starts, it’s clear upward momentum. The concern is rust—hasn’t teed it up since late March—and no SG data makes it tougher to fully quantify. That said, we’ve seen the scoring upside, and in fourball that’s all you need in stretches. Course history and chemistry quietly matter here. This is their 4th straight year playing together at this event, and results have improved each time (MC → 11 → 19). They’re comfortable with each other, and that shows up more in this format than most. This really comes down to Matt’s elite baseline carrying and Alex not losing ground. If Alex is even field average tee-to-green, Matt’s current level is good enough to put them in contention. If Alex spikes like he has recently, the ceiling jumps to win equity. There’s also clear motivation—Alex likely secures more PGA Tour status with a win, and Matt’s not in a spot where he’s letting up given current form. No signs of coasting here. Rust + unknown SG on Alex will keep some people off, but the upside is real—especially in alternate shot with Matt’s control. At +1200, you’re betting on Matt continuing elite play and Alex holding his own. All gas, no breaks for the Fitzpatrick crew! -C

Ben Griffin (A) & Andrew Novak (B)
Odds: +1800
Stats (A): Top 125 exclude APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude GIR, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200+
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude APP 200+, APP AVG, BOB 175200; Top 25: ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P5
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude GIR, BS; Top 25: APP 175200, P3
SG Gains (A): OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM (A): 33/33/28/MC
FORM (B): 16/MC/14/55
Zurich Results (A): 1/MC/MC
Zurich Results (B): 1/23/MC/MC
Comp Results (A): 4/21/22/49/55/64/MC
Comp Results (B): 9/16/22/29/44/51/57/MC/MC
Insights: Defending tag team champs are back with great vibes, but the profile is a bit more fragile than the number suggests. Starting with Griff—he’s quietly built a floor with OTT (4/4 gains) and elite short game consistency (ARD gains 9 of last 11), but approach continues to lag (APP gains just 4 of last 11). The results reflect it—steady but capped, still searching for a top 20 since the season opener. Novak is more volatile but trending slightly better tee-to-green. OTT and APP have both shown consistency recently (OTT 4/4, APP 3/4), including an approach spike last week, which is encouraging coming into a second-shot heavy setup. The issue is the putter—gained in just 4 of last 11 and lost in 4 of last 5, which is tough to carry in this format, especially in fourball where scoring is required. From a team fit standpoint, it’s a bit split. Griff brings stability around the greens and can spike putting, while Novak is the better recent iron player. That combination should play better in fourball, where they can lean into birdie looks and mask weaknesses. Alternate shot is the question—Griff’s inconsistent irons + Novak’s shaky putter is not the cleanest pairing when every shot matters. Workload is worth noting—Novak on his 4th straight start and 7th in 8 weeks, Griff similar stretch (7 of last 8). Not a red flag, but not a fresh team either. Statistically, this grades out as a pretty average team overall—top 75% across most metrics, with real strength only around the green and in birdie or better. That’s not typically a winning profile unless something spikes. At +1800, you’re leaning on chemistry + defending champ narrative + hoping for a putter turnaround from Novak and an approach spike from Griff. The path is there, especially in fourball, but it’s thin in alternate shot. I’m more cautious than the number suggests. Lean pass or limited exposure. -C

Brooks Koepka (A) & Shane Lowry (B)
Odds:
Stats (A): Top 100! exclude SCR (148), ARD/SCR AVG (112), PUTT (141), BA (101), P4 (107)
Stats (B): Top 75!! exclude ARD (103), ARD/SCR AVG (78), BOB 175200 (78), BOB 200+ (91)
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude SCR, PUTT; Top 25: TG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, 200+, BOB AVG, P5
Rank (B): Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, BOB 200+
SG Gains (A): OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM (A): 12/MC/18/13
FORM (B): 42/30/28/MC
Zurich Results (A): 22/MC/5/21
Zurich Results (B): 12/1/13/MC/28/MC
Comp Results (A): 2/9/16/19/26/33/51/MC/MC
Comp Results (B): 2/2/4/5/11/13/21/36/49/53/MC
Insights: Big-name duo this week, but this is more nuanced than the odds suggest. Starting with Brooks—tee-to-green profile is elite right now. He’s gaining OTT and APP consistently (APP 3/4, OTT spike at Augusta), and when you zoom out, he’s near the top of this field in T2G, Approach, proximity, and birdie average. That’s your anchor, especially in alternate shot. The concern remains the putter (gained just 3 of last 7), which can stall momentum in fourball if it doesn’t cooperate. Shane brings a different layer—more balanced but currently a bit off peak form. Since the epic collapse at Cognizant, results have cooled (MC-MC-28-30-42), but the underlying SG still shows life: OTT gains 7/8, APP 6/8. That’s encouraging, especially paired with Brooks’ ball-striking. Around the green and putting are more hit-or-miss, but we’ve seen him elevate in team settings—especially here, coming off the win with Rory McIlroy in 2024 and a T12 defense last year. The dynamic is the swing factor. If they find rhythm early, the talent alone gives them top-end upside. From a format lens: alternate shot should be solid with their combined tee-to-green strength. Fourball is where it gets murkier—Brooks’ putter + Shane’s recent inconsistency could limit true scoring bursts. Statistically, it’s interesting—Brooks carries most of the elite metrics, while Shane balances but doesn’t spike. Team profile ends up more average than expected outside of ball-striking. That’s not always a winning formula here unless one of them heats up with the putter. Expect contention flashes, but not a slam dunk. I get the number, but no need chasing. -C

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Michael Brennan (A) & Johnny Keefer (B)
Odds: +2200
Stats (A): Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3; Top 25: OTT, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5; Top 25: OTT, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, APP 175200
SG Gains (A): OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM (A): 42/24/28/MC
FORM (B): 69/MC/MC/3
Zurich Results (A): DEBUT
Zurich Results (B): DEBUT
Comp Results (A): 26/52
Comp Results (B): MC
Insights: Sneaky upside team, but it comes with real volatility. Brennan is the driver here—elite OTT in 3 of his last 4 starts and gaining APP in 3/4, which gives this team a legit tee-to-green ceiling. The ball-striking metrics back it up too—Top 25 across OTT, BS, proximity, and key scoring ranges. He’s still raw around the edges though—ARD (1/9 gains this season) and inconsistent putting limit his floor, but the upside is clear, especially coming off a solid Augusta showing. Keefer is tougher to trust right now. Outside of the T3 spike, the form has been rough—losing SG total in 6 of last 7, with clear leakage in both APP (losses in 5 of last 7) and the putter (2 gains in 11 starts). OTT started strong this season but has cooled, and now you add in workload—7th straight start—which raises some concern mentally and physically. From a team fit standpoint, it’s very split. Brennan brings the ball-striking upside, Keefer is searching for consistency. That likely plays better in fourball, where Brennan can carry stretches and Keefer just needs to find a couple hot holes. Alternate shot is the concern—both weak around the greens and inconsistent putting is not the profile you want when every miss compounds. No course history, no real comp data—so you’re leaning entirely on current form and raw talent. Stat profile is actually interesting: Top 25% team in field ranks in a lot of key scoring and ball-striking metrics, but near the bottom in short game and putting. That’s a boom-or-bust setup in this format. This is a classic sleeper/pivot build. Not going to be popular, not overly safe, but there’s enough tee-to-green upside to outperform the number if things click—especially early in fourball. Lean small exposure as a high-variance flier. -C

Wyndham Clark (A) & Taylor Moore (B)
Odds: +2500
Stats (A): Top 100! exclude OTT (107), SCR (127), PUTT (134), BA (109), P5 (102)
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, PROX
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 200+, P3
SG Gains (A): OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM (A): 16/21/MC/MC
FORM (B): 39/MC/MC/50
Zurich Results (A): MC/3/10/17/MC
Zurich Results (B): MC/MC/4/4
Comp Results (A): 7/10/11/16/25/46/MC
Comp Results (B): 2/11/12/21/42/MC
Insights: Interesting buy-low spot with a team that’s better than the recent results suggest. Clark is starting to show signs again—back-to-back top 25s and coming off a strong week at Heritage where the putter finally spiked. That’s the key. Tee-to-green has mostly been there (OTT/APP 3/4), but the putter has lagged outside of a few flashes. When it heats up, we’ve seen the ceiling—he can go nuclear and carry a team in fourball. Moore complements him well stylistically, especially around the greens and with the putter (Top 25% in the field individually in ARD/SCR/PUTT), but the concern is approach. He’s only gained APP in 1 of his last 4, and that’s a tough thing to hide—especially in alternate shot. That said, he’s shown strong history in this event (back-to-back T4s with Matthew NeSmith), so clearly comfortable in the format. Course history for Clark is solid too—3rd here previously and has shown he can go low (opening 61 that year). From a format lens: this should be a fourball-friendly team. Clark’s scoring ability + Moore’s short game gives them birdie upside. Alternate shot is where the hesitation comes in—Moore’s current iron play + Clark’s inconsistent putting is not the cleanest combo when things tighten up. Stat profile is actually strong at the team level—Top 25% in the field in OTT, ARD, and key scoring metrics, and overall a Top 10 team when stacking ranks across the field. At +2500, you’re getting a team with proven course success, scoring upside, and a trending putter with Clark. If the irons stabilize just enough, especially from Moore, this team can absolutely push top 10 and flirt with more. I’m eyeing a placement bet along with a sprinkle on the win. -C

Ryan Gerard (A) & Sudarshan Yellamaraju (B)
Odds: +1600
Stats (A): Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (109), ARD (123), SCR (122), ARD/SCR AVG (123), BOB 175200 (113)
Stats (B): Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (93), ARD (112), ARD/SCR AVG (86), P3 (81)
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude ARD/SCR AVG; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
Rank (B): Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains (A): OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM (A): 33/38/MC/27
FORM (B): 52/14/6/5
Zurich Results (A): 12/MC
Zurich Results (B): DEBUT
Comp Results (A): 4/11/23/25/MC
Comp Results (B): 17/37
Insights: One of the more intriguing builds on the board —elite underlying stats with a real question around the pairing. Sudarshan is the engine right now. In his limited sample, he’s been a stat monster—OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, PUTT 3/4, and across the season gaining OTT (8/9), APP (8/9), and on the greens (7/9). That’s rare air for a rookie, and the recent results back it up (5th, 6th in recent starts). If he maintains even 80% of that, this team has legit top-end upside. Gerard is the counterbalance, but trending the wrong way. Since the early-season spike, it’s been more neutral than impactful—no top 20 since February and clear leakage around the greens and with the putter. Tee-to-green still holds (OTT/APP 3/4), but he’s not converting, and that matters in this format. The dynamic is the swing factor. This wasn’t a natural pairing—Gerard cycled through options before landing here—so chemistry is a real unknown. That’s not ideal in a format where rhythm and trust matter, especially in alternate shot. From a format lens: this team should feast in fourball. Sudarshan’s current form gives them birdie volume, and Gerard can support tee-to-green. Alternate shot is where it gets thin—both are weaker around the greens, and that’s exactly where mistakes get exposed late in the week. Stat profile is elite—arguably one of the best in the field. That’s what makes this number interesting. This comes down to trusting the data vs trusting the dynamic. On paper, this is a top-tier team. In reality, new pairing + Gerard’s form + short game concerns introduce volatility. If you’re playing upside and willing to embrace risk, this is a strong pivot—especially for fourball exposure early. If cautious, there’s a clear path: buy early, reassess heading into alternate shot. I’m in for upside, just managing exposure. Smells like first round leader ticket then potential early Sunday morning chaser action. -C

Austin Smotherman (A) & Andrew Putnam (B)
Odds: +4000
Stats (A): Top 125 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude OTT, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 200+
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude OTT, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, BOB 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3
SG Gains (A): OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 0/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM (A): 74/36/MC/13
FORM (B): 42/5/44/30
Zurich Results (A): 23/MC/MC
Zurich Results (B): MC/MC/MC/MC/15/MC
Comp Results (A): 2/55/68/MC
Comp Results (B): 2/5/11/27/39/59/MC/MC/MC
Insights: This is one of the more volatile but interesting teams. Smotherman is the engine from tee to green—he’s been consistently gaining OTT and APP (3/4 each recently, 9/10 on the season), and when he’s on, he can absolutely set the tone for a team format. The issue is the complete lack of short game reliability right now, with zero recent gains around the green or with the putter, and a five-event losing streak putting. That’s the hinge point for the entire team. Putnam is almost the mirror image. He brings the stability—elite short game form right now with gains both around the green and putting (ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4), and enough recent iron spikes to keep him relevant. He’s not driving the ball at a high level, but in this pairing, that’s less of a concern with Smotherman covering that side. The combination actually fits better than most in this range on paper. In fourball, this team can work—Smotherman creates volume, Putnam converts. In alternate shot, it’s more fragile because Smotherman’s short game volatility can show up fast under pressure, especially if they’re forced into recovery situations. That’s where the matchup becomes uncomfortable. Course history doesn’t add much confidence—both have struggled overall here—but the current statistical pairing is more relevant than past results. Smotherman’s tee-to-green profile is legitimately strong for this field, and Putnam’s short game gives them a functional scoring path if they’re in position. At +4000, this is a pure variance play. The ceiling comes from Smotherman’s ball-striking holding and Putnam’s short game carrying leverage holes. The floor is obvious if either side breaks down, especially on approach control in alternate shot. Not a safe team, either plug your nose and accept the results or discard and move on. I’ll sit this one out and watch from afar. -C

Keith Mitchell (A) & Brandt Snedeker (B)
Odds: +4000
Stats (A): Top 100! exclude ARD (106), PUTT (124)
Stats (B): N/A
Rank (A): Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, SCR, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
Rank (B): N/A
SG Gains (A): OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 0/3, APP 1/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 1/3 (*No SG for PRO start)
FORM (A): MC/14/46/33
FORM (B): 39/18/MC/MC
Zurich Results (A): 18/28/6/MC/4/MC
Zurich Results (B): 35/40/MC/4/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results (A): 1/6/9/9/21/27/42/53/MC/MC
Comp Results (B): 10/39/44/50/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: This is a classic volatility + nostalgia combo. Killa Keith is the clear driver of the team—elite off the tee (4/4 SG gains) and strong on approach (3/4), with a profile that still supports win equity when things click. The issue is unchanged: around the green and putting remain leaky (ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4), which has limited him to just one top 10 and a handful of top 20s despite strong tee-to-green weeks. When he gets stressed, it tends to show up fast in scoring volatility. Sneds is the swing piece. The short game is still there in flashes (notably ARD strength in limited recent sample), but the ball-striking is far from consistent and the competitive reps are thin. At 45, the upside is more about timing than baseline performance—he can still spike a week with the putter, but it’s less predictable. There are signs of life (low rounds at Valspar, some iron flashes at Valero), but also clear rust and inconsistency across recent starts. The interesting part is the history. These two have actually worked before—4th place here in 2021 with a Sunday push and a Saturday low round. That matters more than most pairings in this field because it proves they can coexist in this format and actually produce under pressure. From a format lens, this is very much a fourball-dependent team. Mitchell creates scoring opportunities off the tee, Snedeker’s only real path is converting a handful of short-game or putting spikes. In alternate shot, this team is fragile—Mitchell’s short game inconsistency combined with Snedeker’s ball-striking volatility creates a low floor environment. At +4000, this is a pure chaos/ceiling play. The path to contention is clear: Mitchell drives scoring, Snedeker catches a vintage putting week, and their prior chemistry shows up again. The downside is also clear if Snedeker’s game doesn’t show up or Mitchell’s short game leaks under pressure. Repeat upside exists, but this is more “embrace the variance” than structured investment. First Round Leader ticket will be in my pocket and will be rooting for this team to cross the line on Sunday. Outright ticket? Check back tomorrow. -C

Michael Thorbjornsen (A) & Karl Vilips (B)
Odds: +1600
Stats (A): Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (137), PUTT (129)
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude TG, OTT, GIR, BS, ARD, BOB 175200, P5
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB AVG, BA , P4
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude TG, OTT, GIR, BS, ARD, BOB 175200, P5; Top 25: APP 200+, PUTT, BOB
SG Gains (A): OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM (A): 33/MC/14/22
FORM (B): 33/MC/19/64
Zurich Results (A): 4 (64-70-61-68, 2025)
Zurich Results (B): 4 (64-70-61-68, 2025)
Comp Results (A): 39/MC/MC
Comp Results (B): 1/39/MC
Insights: One of the more polarizing young teams, built almost entirely on upside and volatility. Thor is the clear engine—elite ceiling when everything clicks, with OTT gains in 4/4 and flashes of complete-game upside (notably the WMPO 3rd where he gained across all categories). The problem is consistency, especially around approach and putting, where performance has been more field-average than elite despite the talent profile suggesting more. The upside is obvious, but it’s only shown in short bursts this season. Vilips is the opposite profile—putter-driven with strong short-game spikes (8/9 putting gains), but major leakage elsewhere, especially around the green and off the tee. His iron play has shown improvement recently (4 straight APP gains), but the volatility remains high, and in alternate shot that becomes a real pressure point. The upside is real but the floor is unstable. The key dynamic here is complementary but incomplete. Thorbjornsen gives you power and scoring potential off the tee; Vilips gives you putting upside and conversion. That combination can absolutely work in fourball, where each player can hide weaknesses and lean into strengths. In alternate shot, it gets much more fragile—Vilips’ around-the-green issues combined with Thorbjornsen’s inconsistent approach play can create compounding mistakes. Course history actually supports the upside narrative—both played well here last year together. At +1600, this is a pure talent-and-variance bet. The ceiling is very real if Thorbjornsen plays to his WMPO-level peak and Vilips’ putter stays hot. But the lack of stability across both games, especially in alternate shot, keeps the floor low. Will be one of the most popular bets and teams on the board. I lean outright over first round leader and may look for a match-up bet, but not overly sold as I wanted to be coming into the week. -C

Matt Wallace (A) & Marco Penge (B)
Odds: +2200
Stats (A): Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 200+, BS
Stats (B): Top 125 exclude APP, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P5
Rank (A): Top 75 exclude APP 200+, BS; Top 25: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P4
Rank (B): Top 75 exclude APP, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, P5; Top 25: OTT, APP 175200, BOB 175200
SG Gains (A): OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
SG Gains (B): OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM (A): 55/2/51/40
FORM (B): 77/49/21/MC
Zurich Results (A): MC/36/MC/18/23
Zurich Results (B): DEBUT
Comp Results (A): 4/20/26/29/40/64/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Comp Results (B): N/A
Insights: Yet another volatility pairing —a “two different ceilings, one shared floor” type of build. Wallace is the stabilizer and the more reliable scorer in context. He’s been trending toward contention with recent close calls T2 at Valero, and the profile is consistent: gains across OTT/APP/ARD in 3/4, but the putter is still the swing piece. When he putts even average, he tends to hang around deep into Sunday, and this event has historically been one where he can produce fourball scoring runs. Penge is the opposite side of the spectrum—pure upside, pure volatility. The power off the tee is real and has shown up in long gain streaks, but the approach and around-the-green game are inconsistent at best, and that shows in the broader results profile (only 3 SG-positive tournaments in 10 starts). When he’s on, though, he’s been high-end—multiple top-20s and top-5 finishes in those spikes, which is exactly the type of profile that can swing a team event quickly. Course fit is more neutral than strong, but both have shown enough flashes in different environments to suggest they’re not out of place and Penge has shown he can get it done on Sundays over on the DP World Tour and many say when not if he will get it over the line on the PGA Tour. The bigger factor is chemistry and game-state management—this feels less like a wire-to-wire type and more like a “hang around, spike late” profile. The path feels clear: Wallace keeps them stable and in range, Penge provides the explosive scoring window in fourball, and one of them catches a much needed putting week. The downside is equally obvious if Penge’s irons wobble early or Wallace’s putter stays cold. Live upside, but very dependent on spike weeks aligning. Perfect combination for a short term buy and jump back in after 54 holes if you catch my drift. -C

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Team List

Patio Preview

TPC Louisiana
Avondale, LA

• Team Event

  • 74 teams (148 players)

  • Top 33 + ties make the cut

  • Unique format:

    • Thursday/Saturday: Four-Ball (Best Ball)

    • Friday/Sunday: Foursomes (Alternate Shot)

• Pete Dye design

  • Par 72

  • 7,400–7,450 yards

• Greens: Bermudagrass

  • Average-sized greens

  • Less emphasis on precision vs typical Dye tracks

• Scoreable course that rewards aggression and team chemistry

  • Driver usage higher than Tour average

  • Wide landing areas allow for distance advantage

  • Birdie-making significantly above Tour average (Best Ball dependent)

• Approach Play

  • Key range: 150–200 yards

  • Strong iron play critical to create birdie chances

  • One elite iron player per team is almost required

• Putting / Scoring

  • Birdie or Better % is a priority stat

  • Streaky putting can carry teams in Four-Ball

  • Less reliance on scrambling vs typical Dye setups

• Alternate Shot (Key Separator)

  • Accuracy and control become critical

  • Mistakes compound quickly (bogey/double risk)

  • Teams must avoid blow-up holes to contend

• Par 3s

  • 4 total

  • Play near or slightly over par

  • Emphasis on solid iron play and avoiding mistakes

• Par 4s

  • Mix of short and mid-range holes

  • Several birdie opportunities in Four-Ball

  • Less demanding than typical Pete Dye layouts

• Par 5s

  • 4 total

  • All reachable/scorable

  • Primary scoring holes each round

  • Teams must take advantage (eagles in play)

Key Takeaways

• Scoring comes in waves depending on format

• Four-Ball = attack and go low

• Alternate Shot = survive and stay clean

• Ideal team build:

  • Elite ball striker + elite putter

  • Aggression + stability balance

Recent Tournament History

2025: Griffin | Novak -28 (62-66-61-71); 1 Stroke Victory over Hojgaards
2024: Lowry | McIlroy -25 (61-70-64-68); Playoff Victory over Trainer | Ramey
2023: Hardy | Riley -17 (64-66-63-65); 2 Stroke Victory over Hadwin | Taylor
2022: Cantlay | Schauffele -29 (59-68-60-72); 2 Stroke Victory over Burns | Horschel
2021: Smith | Leishman -20 (63-72-63-70); Playoff Victory over Schwartzel | Oosthuizen
2019: Rahm | Palmer -26 (64-65-64-69); 3 Stroke Victory over Fleetwood | Garcia
2018: Horschel | Piercy -22 (65-73-61-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Dufner | Perez

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Birdie-or-Better %
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %
Strokes Gained: Approach

Tier 2

Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Bogey Avoidance

Tier 3

Good Drive %
Scrambling
Par 3 Scoring

Course Comps

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Grand Reserve Golf Club
PGA National Resort (The Champion)

Zurich Classic Tournament Trends

Odds
0-10: 2024, 2022
10-25: 2025, 2021, 2019
25-50: 2023, 2018

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 7/7 (100%) within 5 shots (0/7 led)
R2: 7/7 (100%) within 4 shots (0/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 3 shots (2/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) both team members with Top 20 finish in last 4 starts
7/7 (100%) at least 1 team member with multiple Top 30 in last 4 starts
6/7 (83%) at least 1 team member with a Top 5 in last 4 starts
4/7 (57%) both team members made the cut in their last start
3/7 (43%) at least 1 team member with multiple Top 10 in last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) both team members with back to back made cuts in last 2 starts
1/7 (14%) both team members with Top 10 in their last start
0/7 (0%) at least 1 team member with a WIN in last 4 starts

Winner’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans History
7/7 (100%) at least 1 team member with a prior appearance
7/7 (100%) at least 1 team member with a Top 20 finish
5/7 (71%) at least 1 team member with 2 or fewer prior appearances
5/7 (71%) at least 1 team member with at least 4 prior appearances
4/7 (57%) both team members with at least 2 prior appearances
4/7 (57%) both team members with a Top 20 finish
4/7 (57%) at least 1 team member with a Top 5 finish
2/7 (29%) at least 1 team member with a prior WIN
1/7 (14%) both team members with less than 2 prior appearances
0/7 (0%) both team members with a Top 5 finish

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 71% (2025, 2024, 2022, 2021, 2018)
PM: 29% (2023, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Early Model Top 10
Matt Fitzpatrick/Alex Fitzpatrick
Sudarshan Yellamaraju/Ryan Gerard
Keith Mitchell/Brandt Snedeker
Shane Lowry/Brooks Koepka
Jordan Smith/Haotong Li
Mac Meissner/Matt McCarty
Kevin Roy/Max McGreevy
Sam Stevens/Zach Bauchou
Wyndham Clark/Taylor Moore
Matt Wallace/Marco Penge

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Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (C Kim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
The Masters: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas (Sammy) vs Russell Henley (Champ)

Money leader: Sammy leads +$96,494
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 8-6-1

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Free Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Xander Schauffele +1400 - 2.5u
Russell Henley +1750 - 2u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Matt Fitzpatrick | Collin Morikawa

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Sepp Straka +6600 (w/ 3 pl) (0.7u)
Justin Thomas +7000 (w/ 3 pl) (0.7u)

*Bet365 Each Way Market

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Final Models

Sammy

For full model, follow this link to Sammy’s Google Sheet, where all of his models will be uploaded throughout the week

Champ

RBC Heritage Top 10

Jake Knapp
Matt Fitzpatrick
Ryo Hisatsune
Min Woo Lee
Jacob Bridgeman
Xander Schauffele
Chris Gotterup
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Cameron Young

Subscriber Bets

Champs’ Crew

FRL
Xander Schauffele +2800 - 0.75u
Jordan Spieth +3000 - 0.75u

Sammy’s Selections

FRL
Ryo Hisatsune +4000 (w/ 5 pl, boosted to +5200) (0.6)

Placement
Russell Henley Top 10 +145 (2.5u)

Additional Stats/Info & DFS

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Robert MacIntyre

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

Wyndham Clark

DFS Chalk

Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay

DFS Pivots

Cameron Young
Collin Morikawa (injury watch)
Ben Griffin

Single-Entry Savants

Scottie Scheffler
Sepp Straka
Sudarshan Yellamaraju

GPP Dart Throws

Tommy Fleetwood
Akshay Bhatia
Bud Cauley

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
RBCH Results: Finishes at the RBC Heritage
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Austin Country Club, Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) & Colonial Country Club

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (103), ARD (80), BOB 150175 (80), P3 (97)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 150175, APP AVG, BS, SCR, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 9/4/3/24
RBCH Results: 18/18/4/64/63/32
Comp Results: 3/5/17/18/24/35/48/MC/MC/MC
Insights: X rolls into Harbour Town in elite form, and the profile fits exactly what you want this week. He’s gained off the tee, on approach, and with the putter in each of his last four starts, and when you zoom out across 2026, it’s even more impressive — gaining in strokes gained total in 8 of 8 starts, with off the tee (7/8), approach (8/8) and putting (7/8) leading the way. Course history quietly reinforces the fit. He’s gained on approach in 5 of 6 starts here and on the greens in 5 of 6 as well, with the highlight being a 4th-place finish where he gained across the board and posted three rounds in the 60s, including a Sunday 66. Harbour Town rewards precision and control, and Xander’s iron play and ball-striking consistency line up perfectly. The only real question mark is around the green. He’s lost strokes in back-to-back starts, including Augusta, and that’s an area that can’t be ignored on a course where scrambling matters. That said, his baseline tee-to-green game — elite OTT and APP — should give him plenty of scoring opportunities, and if he can just be field average around the greens and with the putter, that’s more than enough here. With no Texas swing in the lead-in, he comes in rested, and everything points toward another late Sunday tee time. At +1200, you’re paying for consistency and ceiling, but this is a spot where both align. X gonna give it to ya and I’m a buyer this week. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +360
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (81), PROX (142), APP AVG (55)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/22/24/12
RBCH Results: 8/1/11
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/4/4/5/55/57/MC
Insights: If it wasn’t for Friday, Scottie would have had an even more legitimate chance to win the Masters this year. Not to take anything away from Rory, but Scottie gained over 4 strokes to the field Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Friday was a nasty blemish on an otherwise great showing, as he lost 2.2 strokes on the greens and about a half of a stroke with his irons in the 2nd round. With his near +10 strokes gained on the weekend, did Scottie find something? Or was that Scottie being Scottie in 2026 — flashes of brilliance sprinkled with weighted mediocrity. All things considered, this is a great price on Scottie relative to what we’re used to seeing when he’s in form, and it’s a course he’s won on. If his irons are back, then he’s going to be right there on Sunday again, but if you like a couple guys 20/1 or longer, then you’re not going to be able to afford the +350-380 on Scottie this week. Given it’s a signature event, OAD is an option. If you like a few value golfers, then DFS should be in consideration as well. -S

Cameron Young
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (82), ARD/SCR AVG (51)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 150175, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 3/1/3/7
RBCH Results: 54/62/51/3
Comp Results: 2/29/35/38
Insights: If you were busy last weekend and simply looked at the leaderboard after the fact, you would see Cam Young finished in a tie for 3rd — his best major finish since his 2nd at The Open in 2022. It was objectively a great result for CY, but it wasn’t all sunshine and azaleas, either (you see what I did there?). He started 4-over through 7 holes and wasn’t able to capitalize on his hot Saturday performance with a clutch Sunday. In fact, his final round was the opposite of that, as he lost nearly a stroke to the field at the most inopportune time. I’m pessimistic of him being as competitive mentally again this week after he worked so hard for 2.5 rounds to fix a horrible start, just to spin his tires in the mud on Sunday. Plus, this hasn’t been his favorite track lately. Since his T3 finish in 2022, he’s failed to crack the Top 50 here in 3 straight starts. With sub-20/1 odds, the juice ain’t worth the squeeze for me this week on CY. -S

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Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (54), SCR (51), PUTT (94), BOB 175200 (61)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 18/1/2/41
RBCH Results: 38/28/1/MC
Comp Results: 17/18/18/31/32/36/38/61/64/MC
Insights: The 2023 champ returns to Harbour Town with a profile that looks very similar to his winning formula. Fitzy has gained off the tee in seven straight starts and continues to show elite approach play (gaining in 6 of his last 7), giving him a strong tee-to-green foundation that travels well to this course. Around-the-green has been steady at worst, with occasional spikes, while the putter has been more neutral lately — and that’s the key swing factor this week in my eyes. Looking back at the win here, he gained across the board (OTT, APP, ARD, PUTT), and based on current form, a similar path is in play. He’s coming off a stretch where he could realistically have two wins in his last three starts, and now returns to a course that clearly fits his eye. The correlation is strong as well — his 2023 win came off a Top 10 at Augusta, and this setup feels very similar from a form and confidence standpoint. The concern is price. At +1800, you’re not getting much of a discount, especially with the putter not quite peaking. But if the flat stick shows even a slight uptick while OTT and APP stay consistent, another top-end finish is well within reach. Expect him to be in the mix again, but sprinkle on the placements to ease the Sunday sweat. -C

Chris Gotterup
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (80), PUTT (78)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP 150175, APP AVG, ARD, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 24/6/56/18
RBCH Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 28/35/MC
Insights: Gotterup enters as one of the more intriguing course debutants this week, largely because of how well-rounded his statistical profile looks on paper. He’s gained across all four key categories in three of his last four starts, which speaks to balance — but the deeper dive shows a lack of true spike performances outside of his wins earlier this season. Those wins highlight the appeal: he’s proven he can get it done in multiple ways — whether it’s a putting spike (Sony) or a tee-to-green takeover (Phoenix). That versatility is why the clubhouse and bettors alike are drawn to him. The concern, though, is the recent form hasn’t shown that same ceiling. His last few starts have been more “field average across the board” with nothing jumping out as elite, outside of a strong OTT showing in Houston. Harbour Town may also mute his biggest weapon. This isn’t a driver-heavy course, and when you look at a comparable like Pebble Beach — another positional, shorter track — he finished T37 with largely neutral metrics and a slight loss on the greens. That feels like a reasonable baseline outcome here. With no Augusta contention, he comes in without added pressure or fatigue, which helps, but debuting here with limited comp success doesn’t scream immediate breakout. Feels more like a wait-and-see spot — monitor early rounds and look for a potential weekend run if something clicks. Pre-tournament, this is more of a fade/hold than a buy at the current number. -C

Russell Henley
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (119)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: APP 150175, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/MC/13/6
RBCH Results: 8/12/19/MC/9/MC/MC/26/23/MC/MC/6
Comp Results: 4/6/10/13/16/17/22/28/30/36/58/60/65/MC/MC
Insights: Harbour Town is a short course that rewards precision, and any time the PGA stops at a course like that, the Russ Bus should pop into your head. The result speak for themselves; he’s finished in the Top 20 in 4 of his last 5 starts in Hilton Head, including in 3 straight. His T8 last year came despite losing over a stroke off the tee, too. Coming into this week, he’s gained strokes in that department in 4 straight starts and 6 of his last 7. Meanwhile, his irons woke up in a big way last week, as he gained over 9.5 strokes on approach in Augusta. In fact, he gained over 12 strokes to the field in Augusta, with positive marks in all 5 SG metrics. Russ checks all the boxes this week. He will be popular, but if he putter shows up — and it has in 6 of his 8 events this year — then Henley should be in the mix on Sunday. -S

Jake Knapp
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (107), APP 175200 (79), BOB 150175 (92)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TD, OTT/TD AVG, PROX, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 11/6/MC/6
RBCH Results: 62 (74-70-69-71, 2024)
Comp Results: 68/MC
Insights: Knapp’s putter is exceptional, there’s no other way to put it. He’s lost strokes on the greens just once this season, and his +2.1 result at the Masters was the worst of all the other performances. Prior to last week, Knapp had gained at least 5 strokes putting to the field in 4 straight events in 3 different states. Bent, Bermuda, Poa, doesn’t matter, Knapp is likely to be one of the best putters in the field. Unfortunately, that matters slightly less this week given the small greens in Hilton Head. Sure, he’s got an advantage once he gets to the greens, but getting on the greens efficiently is the biggest concern here, and Knapp’s ball striking can come and go — as can his around-the-green play. He’s lost strokes ARG in 3 of his last 4 starts; same with his OTT game. The iron play has been good, but the -4.7 strokes at Sawgrass is worrisome, as is his lack of quality course history. For what it’s worth, Knappy Boy hasn’t been much of a Pete Dye guy. While he’s 2nd in the field in SG: Putting on Dye courses over the last 2 years, he’s outside the Top 60 in all other SG categories. Probably a pass for me on this track, but I acknowledge the price is fantastic. Each way/placement markets are live here, but he’s not on my short list of players that I think will win on this set up. -S

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (130), P5 (88)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude TD, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/10/50/13
RBCH Results: 8/18/MC/42/33/MC/MC/2/14
Comp Results: 4/9/17/18/18/28/29/30/56/56/61/66/71/WD/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: SWK sets up as a classic buy-low candidate this week. The recent form doesn’t jump off the page, and losses on approach in two of his last three starts will push plenty of bettors away — but the underlying profile still has intrigue. Off the tee remains a consistent strength, and while the putter has hovered around field average lately, it’s shown enough life to keep him in play if the irons rebound. Harbour Town history is where things get interesting. He’s flashed real upside here, including a runner-up finish and multiple top-20s, and last year he was right in the mix in a final group before fading late. Notably, in two of his nine appearances where he’s gained across all four key categories, both resulted in a Top 10 and that 2nd-place finish — a clear blueprint for success when things click. Around-the-green play has been a bit volatile, and approach will need to bounce back to give him a true chance, but this is a course where comfort and history matter — and SWK has both. Add in strong showings at similar setups like RSM and Match Play, and the fit becomes more convincing. The concern is closing ability. He hasn’t won since Sony in 2023, and while he’s a player we trust to contend in any field, converting is still a question mark. At +3000, though, you’re getting a number that reflects the recent dip, not the course fit or upside. Feels like a spot where the public is off, but the path is there — if the irons cooperate, he can absolutely find himself back in contention come Sunday. -C

Min Woo Lee
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude GIR (81), APP 150175 (85)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 175200, ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/3/32/6
RBCH Results: 61/MC
Comp Results: 24/26/31/40/MC
Insights: MWL is another guy that doesn’t fit this course particularly well. His biggest assets are his distance off the tee and his putting, but distance is heavily negated at this course. You need to be pinpoint accurate both off the tee and on approach here, as with most Pete Dye designs. That said, Lee hasn’t been a huge fan of Pete’s style, as he’s outside the Top 50 in every SG metrics except putting on these tracks over the last 2 years. His only 2 appearances in Hilton Head resulted on a T61 and a MC, while he’s coming off a horrible performance at Augusta. Obviously, that’s a different style of track, but it’s not exactly welcoming, either. The price is the most appealing aspect, but everything else is meh at best. I’m more interested in him at Doral or even Quail Hollow. -S

Jordan Spieth
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 150175 (110), APP 175200 (136), PROX (133), BOB 150175 (122)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BOB 150175, BOB AVG; Top 25: SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 12/63/11/32
RBCH Results: 18/39/2/1/68/54/11/12/9
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/7/7/8/9/9/10/14/17/24/30/31/32/35/36/37/MC
Insights: Spieth returns to Harbour Town as one of the most course-dependent players on the board — and this is a place where everything tends to click. A win and a playoff loss highlight his upside here, and historically, when he’s in the mix at this event, he stays there all week. Both his win and runner-up followed a similar script: starting a few shots back and steadily climbing into contention with consistent rounds in the high 60s. The current form is a bit of a puzzle. The irons have quietly returned to an elite level (gaining in four straight), and he’s gained off the tee in three straight as well, which is an encouraging combo for this setup. Around-the-green play has held steady enough, but the putter — typically his biggest weapon — has gone cold, and that’s the clear swing factor this week. That dynamic is almost flipped from Pebble earlier this season, where he leaned heavily on the putter with more neutral ball-striking. Now, the tee-to-green game is in a much better place — if the putter wakes up, this becomes a very familiar Spieth storyline at a course he loves. Harbour Town fits his eye, and the Texas comps don’t hurt either — similar success at places like Colonial and Austin CC reinforces that comfort on positional tracks. The blueprint is clear: elite irons + a spike putting week = contention. At +2800, you’re betting on volatility, but also a proven ceiling at this course. If the putter cooperates for even two or three rounds, don’t be surprised to see Spieth back in a late Sunday pairing with a real chance to win. The signs are there, can you stomach the Spieth experience? -C

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Sammy’s Masters Round 4 Recap

Sunday at the Masters is always such a special day, and this year was no different. Fresh off a historic, grand slam performance last year, Rory followed it up with another win this year — becoming just the 4th player ever to win at Augusta in consecutive years. Let’s reflect on that. McIlroy is now 1 of 6 golfers in history to win all 4 majors and 1 of 4 golfers to win in back-to-back Masters. Even if Rory never tees it up again, he would go down as one of the top-5 golfers of all time — at just 36 years old. There’s no debate at this point.

There were plenty of highlights on Sunday, including Scottie’s -4 to cap off the first bogey-free weekend at the Masters since 1942, but none other than Rory’s over-the-tree approach shot on 18 after nearly driving it in the neighboring fairway. The circus shot was almost TGL-esqe in a way; it’s not often you see major champions having to hit it out of the pine straw over a tree to secure a victory.

What happens now? Will Rory withdraw from Harbour Town again? Probably. Will he hit a similar downturn like last year after his Masters win? I guess we shall see. As for Scottie, don’t be surprised to see him get hot again and hopefully ride that momentum into a grand-slam opportunity at the US Open. Outside of those two, we remain bullish on Cameron Young, and we’re keeping tabs on Russ Henley, Max Homa and Xander Schauffele — all of whom impressed on Sunday.

Is Tyrell Hatton a big-game hunter now? His LIV form was meh, but he earned his 3rd straight Top 15 in Augusta and 4th Top-20 finish in his last 5 majors this weekend. Something to monitor for OAD in the remaining 3 majors.

Is Collin Morikawa healthy? If not, he had quite a round on Sunday and deserves some kudos in that regard. If he is, then look for him to make some noise as soon as next week at the iron-heavy Harbour Town — one of our favorite events to watch and bet, even if it is immediately after the Masters.

On to Hilton Head!

Field List

Patio Preview

Harbour Town Golf Links
Hilton Head, SC

• Signature Event

  • 82 players, no cut

• Pete Dye design

  • Par 71

  • 7,200-7,250 yards

• Greens: Bermudagrass (Poa Trivalis overseed)

  • 2nd-smallest greens on Tour

• Short, tree-lined course that values second shot and short game

  • Driver usage greater than 13% below Tour average

  • Driving Accuracy, Good Drive % higher than Tour average

  • Nearly 50% of Approach shots last 5 years come from 150-200

  • Scrambling rate 10% higher than Tour average last 2 years

  • Fewer 3-putts than Tour average

  • Birdie-to-Bogey ratio 1.835 last 2 years (Tour average 1.41)

• 4 Par 3s

  • All 185+ yards and play over par

  • 2 hardest holes (#14, #4)

    • Both with greater than a 4% double rate

• 11 Par 4s

  • Ranging 332-473 yards

  • 6 of 11 play at or below par

• 3 Par 5s

  • All 550-600 yards

  • 2 easiest holes and 3 of easiest 4

  • #2 and #5 birdie rate of greater than 48% and eagle rate of greater than 2.5%

    • Less than 6% bogey rate

    • Scoring on these holes is essential

Recent Tournament History

2025: Justin Thomas -17 (61-69-68-68); Playoff Victory over Andrew Novak
2024: Scottie Scheffler -19 (69-65-63-68); 3 Stroke Victory over Sahith Theegala
2023: Matt Fitzpatrick -17 (66-70-63-68); Playoff Victory over Jordan Spieth
2022: Jordan Spieth -13 (69-68-68-66); Playoff Victory over Patrick Cantlay
2021: Stewart Cink -19 (63-63-69-70); 4 Stroke Victory over Grillo & Varner III
2020: Webb Simpson -22 (65-65-68-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Abraham Ancer
2019: C.T. Pan -12 (71-65-69-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Matt Kuchar

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better %

Tier 2

Good Drive%
Distance from Edge of Fairway
Scrambling
ARG Proximity
Overall Proximity to Hole
Approach 150-200
3-Putt Avoidance (Poa Triv)
Birdie-or-Better %
Bogey Avoidance

Tier 3

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (Pete Dye design)
Strokes Gained: Par 3
Strokes Gained: Par 4 Birdie-or-Better%

Champ’s Course Comps

Austin Country Club
Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)
Colonial Country Club

RBC Heritage Tournament Trends

Odds
0-20: 2025, 2024
21-50: 2023, 2022, 2020
51-100:
100+: 2021, 2019

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 7/7 (100%) within 6 shots (1/7 led)
R2: 6/7 (86%) within 4 shots (3/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 3 shots (4/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/7 (86%) with at least 2 Top 35 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) played in the Masters Tournament the week prior (4/5 made the cut)
4/7 (57%) made the cut in their last start
4/7 (57%) with at least 1 Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
2/7 (29%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s RBC Heritage History
7/7 (100%) with at least 1 prior appearance at the event
7/7 (100%) with a Top 25 finish in a prior appearance
6/7 (83%) made the cut in their prior appearance to their Win
5/7 (71%) with at least 5 prior appearances at the event
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish in a prior appearance
3/7 (43%) with at least 4 straight made cuts at the event prior to their WIN
1/7 (14%) with a Top 10 finish in their last appearance at the event
1/7 (14%) with a WIN in a prior appearance

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 57% (2025, 2022, 2020, 2019)
PM: 43% (2024, 2023, 2021)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM, both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Course History

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Champ’s Clubhouse Thoughts on Round 3

Moving Day at Augusta delivered exactly what the Masters promises—chaos wrapped in brilliance. With 78% of the field shooting even par or better, you’d expect separation to come quietly. Instead, it came with swings, water balls, roars, and momentum flips that felt like they belonged on the back nine of Sunday—not Saturday. At the center of it all is The Masters Tournament and its overnight leader, Rory McIlroy—the only player inside the Top 12 to fail to break par. And the way it happened tells you everything about Augusta. Rory didn’t just lose strokes—he leaked them everywhere. Wayward drives, missed spots, and the big number at 11 highlighted a round where he lost nearly four shots on approach alone. It wasn’t one mistake—it was a slow unraveling. And yet…he’s still right there. That’s the paradox of Augusta: you can lose control of your swing but not your tournament. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler quietly reminded everyone who the most complete player in the world is. A career-low 65 at Augusta, powered by a ridiculous +5.48 on approach, including a front-nine 31 that felt surgical. No chaos, no noise—just control. If Rory cracked the door open, Scottie is the one walking through it. Then there’s Cameron Young—arguably the most fascinating round on the board. A 65 to grab a share of the lead, and he did it while losing strokes on approach. That’s not just uncommon at Augusta—it’s borderline unsustainable. He leaned heavily on his driver, short game, and putter to manufacture scoring chances, which speaks to his ceiling, but also raises the question: can that formula hold for one more day when precision into these greens typically decides everything? Sam Burns continues to be the steady presence—bogey-free 68, gaining ground without needing to be flashy. Ranking near the bottom around the green but still sitting just one back tells you how strong the rest of his game has been. He’s not surviving—he’s positioning. The moment of the day? Shane Lowry’s ace on 6—a reminder that Augusta always has room for magic, even on a day defined by volatility. What makes this leaderboard so compelling is the tension between how players are getting it done. Scottie is striping it. Burns is steady. Young is creating. Rory is scrambling to regain control. Different paths—but all converging at the top. History says you need to be within two shots entering Sunday—and most winners sleep on the lead. That puts real pressure on the current co-leaders and anyone chasing to not just play well, but to own the moment.

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Notable Players and Champ’s Key Insights

Cameron Young
The most complete player through 54 holes, leaning on elite driving and all-around consistency to co-lead. Shot 65 while losing strokes on approach—a rare and likely unsustainable combo at Augusta. If the irons show up Sunday, does he separate—or regress back to the field?

Rory McIlroy
A co-leader playing high-variance golf, flashing brilliance but constantly flirting with disaster off the tee. Lost nearly four shots on approach Saturday while continuing to spray the driver. Can he tighten dispersion for one round, or does the volatility finally catch up to him?

Sam Burns
The steady, under-the-radar contender relying on strong ball-striking to stay within one. Around-the-green play has fallen off significantly since Round 1, creating a potential weakness. Can his short game rebound enough to support a winning Sunday push?

Shane Lowry
A volatile, high-ceiling player who’s flashed elite moments but hasn’t put together a complete round yet. Stat profile has swung wildly day-to-day across all categories. Can he sync all four areas for one complete round when it matters most?

Justin Rose
A proven closer putting himself in position again through consistent tee-to-green play. Top 10 across key ball-striking metrics but will need the putter to elevate. Can he find one more Sunday putting spike to finally convert contention into a Green Jacket?

Scottie Scheffler
The most statistically dominant player in the field despite a rollercoaster week, gaining everywhere except the greens. Ranks 1st Tee-to-Green but just 50th in putting, while sitting even on the back nine for the tournament. If the putter heats up even slightly, does he lap the field on Sunday?

Li Haotong
A streaky riser combining top-tier approach play and putting with inconsistent driving. Massive front/back splits highlight volatility, but also scoring upside. Can he stabilize the driver enough to unlock a full-round Sunday charge under pressure?

Round 4 Buys

Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Rose
Shane Lowry

Round 4 Sells

Sam Burns
HaoTong Li
Brian Campbell
Charl Schwartzel

Round 4 Leans

2-Ball
Jon Rahm > Sergio Garcia
Hideki Matsuyama > Sungjae Im
Ludvig Aberg > Brian Campbell
Scottie Scheffler > Haotong Li
Rory McIlroy > Cameron Young

Round 4 Score
Brian Campbell O 72.5 -150
Scottie Scheffler U 69.5 -150
Cameron Young O 70.5 -105

Waiting on Head to Head Matchup Odds. Official bets will be posted to X on Sunday morning

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Sammy’s Clubhouse thoughts on Round 2

Through 2 rounds, it’s a runaway in Augusta. Clearly, Rory shook some Masters demons last year and is playing freely in his title defense, having shot a -7 on Friday after a -5 on Thursday. His Friday performance was spearheaded by nearly 5.5 Strokes Gained: Short Game, while he gained another 2.5 on approach. Per DataGolf, McIlroy is now around 69% (nice) to win the Masters in back-to-back years for the first time since Tiger 25 years ago, as he’s doubled up Reed and Burns, who are tied in 2nd.

Outside of Rory, Tyrell Hatton, Cameron Young and Patrick Cantlay had the best rounds of the day at -5 or better, while Tommy Fleetwood, Wyndham Clark and Kristoffer Reitan put together -4 rounds. Sammy’s each way on Patrick Reed is still alive after he shot another -3 on Friday, but he’s going to need a poor Rory round simultaneously with his own ceiling round in order to have a shot at the outright. Other notable rounds included Brooks Koepka and Chris Gotterup shooting -3, Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg both shooting -2, and Kurt Kitayama imploding for a +7 after a -3 on Thursday.

At this point, it’s Rory’s to lose — plain and simple. You don’t need advanced analytics to come to that conclusion, but the trends also bear that out, as all 7 of the recent Masters winners have been withing 3 strokes of the lead after Round 2. That said, crazier things have happened. There is still half a tournament to play, and Rory isn’t exactly immune to rounds of 72+. It’s happened 4 times this season, while he had 2 last year, 2 in 2024 (including a 77), and 2 in 2023 when he missed the cut with a 72-77. Look, there’s a very good chance Rory is going to win this week. All I’m saying is it’s not a forgone conclusion just yet. It’s golf after all (he says with a Reed ticket in his pocket — the ultimate copium).

Players like Justin Rose and Patrick Cantlay left some strokes on the course Friday. Both gained over 4.5 strokes on Approach but lost over a stroke on the greens, stunting a higher potential leap up the leaderboard. They weren’t the only ones, though. Here is a list of golfers that gained over 1.5 strokes with their irons and fell flat on their face putting.

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Champ’s Clubhouse Thoughts on Round 1

Overall, the course and weather delivered exactly what you want—everything from eagles and birdies to gritty pars, with plenty of bogeys, doubles, and even a few blow-up holes mixed in. It’s the kind of setup that really separates the field. After watching the Rory McIlroy Amazon Documentary last night, I was curious how Rory McIlroy would come out, and he answered that right away. A stress-free clinic and just his third sub-70 opening round in 18 attempts—that’s been the weak spot, and why I stayed off the outright at shorter numbers. With the course expected to firm up and play tougher each day, that sets up perfectly for him. And honestly, what better full-circle moment Tiger Woods moment than someone going back-to-back for the first time since he did it? I was surprised to see slow starts from Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, but with conditions getting more demanding, I expect at least one—if not both—to bounce back and make a push to the weekend. Looking at the board, it’s hard to argue with DataGolf having over 50% of the win equity tied up in Rory, Scottie Scheffler, and Xander Schauffele. That feels about right and no breaking news there. I liked the start from Patrick Reed and I’m interested to see how he comes out tomorrow. Also keeping an eye on Hideki Matsuyama—if the approach game shows up like it has in his last couple starts (and really most of 2026), he can climb quickly.

Curious to see how many players can consistently gain across the bag as the week progresses. The leaders by the end of tomorrow will draw the tougher afternoon conditions over the weekend, so sustaining those strokes gained numbers in a more difficult setup will be key to identifying who’s still in the mix come Sunday. Sam Burns at the top and Nick Taylor are both surprises given their form this season. Let’s see if they can back it up tomorrow—I’ll likely be fading at least one of them in Round 2.

Ludvig Åberg got off to a great start with a steady par-birdie rhythm, but a poor drive on 8 really flipped the round and led to a disastrous closing stretch. He’s the kind of elite player who can burn bettors on a day like today, but I fully expect a bounce back in Round 2. Brooks Koepka is an interesting case—Top 10 Tee-to-Green and Top 5 in Approach after Day 1. That said, the same issues we’ve seen all season showed up again, with the driver and putter holding him back. Scottie Scheffler looked elite early, then settled into neutral—very similar to what we’ve seen from him throughout 2026—coasting home to a 70. The question is whether that was conditions-driven or just more of the same trend we’ve seen over the past few months. Lastly, he may be a debutant, but I really like what Jacob Bridgeman is showing. The overall game is there. I’m buying in for Round 2 and think a late weekend tee time is well within reach if he builds on this tomorrow.

These are the players I recommend monitoring closely—not just for Round 2, but as strong names to watch heading into the weekend. Four of them were already in my pre-tournament Top 10, led by my top-ranked player, Rory McIlroy. No outrights added yet, but check back tomorrow as the list narrows and the final 36 holes come into clearer focus.

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Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (C Kim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
The Masters: Scottie Scheffler (Sammy) vs Jon Rahm (Champ)

Money leader: Champ +$2,232,256
Weeks Leader: Draw 6-6-1

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Free Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Jon Rahm +900 - 3.10u
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 - 1.40u

Hat Tip
Rory McIlroy | Xander Schauffele | Scottie Scheffler

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Scottie Scheffler +750 (2u; B365 boosted price)
Patrick Reed +5000 (w/ 3 pl) (0.8u)

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Masters Results: Finishes at the Mastes Tournament
Majors Form: Finishes at the 4 Majors Championship in 2024 & 2025
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Plantation Course at Kapalua, The Riviera Country Club, Nine Bridges, and Torrey Pines Golf Course

Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +1200
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/1/24/3
Masters Results: 5/6/MC/MC/46/34/29/38/21
Masters Scoring: 7 of 32 Rounds in 60s, Low: 65; First Round Leader: 2019 & 2024
Majors Results: 10/MC/2/5/MC/1/2/6
Comp Results: 5/7/7/15/25/26/26/41/MC/MC/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Regardless of tour, Bryson is one of the hottest golfers in the world, coming into this week having won back-to-back events in Singapore and South Africa. The last two years at Augusta, Bryson got out to flaming-hot starts, but fell apart on Sunday. In fact, he has 0 rounds in the 60s on Sundays at the Masters in 7 tries, including a 75 last year to completely fall out of contention. Going one step further, each appearance in Augusta has had at least 1 round of 74 or higher, though he also had back-to-back, sub-70 rounds last year. As you can see, Bryson’s range of outcomes day-to-day is vast. He has the tools, but the begging question remains: can he put it all together for 4 days in this type of field? I guess we shall see. For me, the price doesn’t scream value enough for me to hop in and feel good about it. -S

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APEX (90), PUTT (108), P3 (76)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APEX, APP 175200, PUTT, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 46/WD/2/14
Masters Results: 1/22/MC/2/MC/5/21/5/7/10/4/8/25/40/15/MC/20
Masters Scoring: 17 of 62 Rounds in 60s, Low: 64; First Round Leader: 2011
Majors Results: 7/19/47/1/MC/2/12/22
Comp Results: 2/3/4/4/5/5/7/10/16/17/20/20/24/29/MC
Insights: Rory enters Augusta as the defending champion, looking to do something last accomplished by Tiger Woods in 2001–2002, but his lead-in form raises more questions than confidence. During an interview on the ANWA broadcast, he mentioned enjoying the perks of last year’s win and planning to lock in on Wednesday. The mindset sounds steady and relaxed, but it’s fair to question whether the game is peaking at the right time. While 2 of the last 7 Masters winners had a WD in their previous four starts — softening the concern around his withdrawal — it’s the T46 at THE PLAYERS that stands out more, especially with the Top 35 last start trend in play. The WD itself was also unusual, coming while in contention after a 68 in Round 2, adding another layer of uncertainty. Pair that with not having teed it up since THE PLAYERS, and it’s a subtle concern compared to last year’s Houston tune-up. Statistically, the profile remains elite tee-to-green. He’s gained OTT in four straight, continues to flash on approach, and his around-the-green play has been strong — but the putter remains the swing factor. He even lost strokes on the greens here last year in the win, and it ultimately held him back at Sawgrass as well. Augusta history tells a familiar story: Rory tends to start slow (just two sub-70 opening rounds in 17 appearances) before making his move on the weekend. With the expected setup and conditions, a fast start may not be required this week, which gives a bit more leeway. He’s posted 17 rounds in the 60s here, including seven on Sunday, reinforcing that “backdoor charge” narrative. At +1200, you’re paying for the ceiling — and it’s absolutely there — but the path feels narrow. If history holds, Rory likely shakes off rust Thursday and starts to build into the tournament Friday. I’d lean toward holding off on a pre-tournament ticket and instead look to the Round 2 market for a better entry point. -C

Jon Rahm
Odds: +1100
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 1/5/1/2
Masters Results: 14/45/1/27/5/7/9/4/27
Masters Scoring: 13 of 36 Rounds in 60s; Low: 65 (twice); First Round Leader: 2023
Majors Results: 34/7/8/14/7/MC/45
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/2/2/2/3/5/5/7/7/7/8/9/10/17/21/29
Insights: Rahmbo arrives with arguably the best form in the field, even if it’s LIV. Five straight Top 5 finishes (2-5-1-2-2) and a win in Hong Kong that snapped a winless stretch dating back to September 2024, and since then, the game looks fully dialed. Across his last four starts, he’s gained in all four key categories in three of them, with the only blemish being a slight dip with the putter — and even that hasn’t slowed the results. Zooming out, his last 10 starts (2-5-1-2-2-9-13-2-2-5) stack up with anyone in this field with the biggest question coming into the year was when he’d win again — now that box is checked. Is another Major to follow? Augusta is a proven fit. A former champion with nine straight made cuts and a history of being firmly in the mix, his Sunday scoring stands out in a big way — SIX of his last NINE Sunday rounds in the 60s, including FOUR of his last FIVE. That’s elite closing ability and a huge weapon at this course. While he’s been more middle-of-the-pack early in the week (just three of nine opening rounds in the 60s), he consistently builds into contention, making a live-betting angle very much in play if you don’t want to invest at 11/1. Major form over the last couple years shows he’s been around the first page without fully breaking through, but this year feels like the stretch where that changes. He’s only three years removed from his Green Jacket, Wins historically at Torrey, Riviera and Kapalua only reinforce the Spanish fit. At +1100, you’re not getting a bargain, but you are getting one of the most complete and in-form players in the world and plenty of supporters in the market. Whether it’s from chasing or controlling from the front, Rahm has multiple paths to get it done. Clear short list play and a strong One-and-Done option — if not the anchor of your card this week. -C

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APEX (82), PROX (105), ARD (80), BOB 150175 (82), P3 (76)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25: TG, APP, SCR, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/3/24/7
Masters Results: 8/8/10/MC/3/17/2/50
Masters Scoring: 7 of 30 Rounds in 60s; Low: 65
Majors Results: 7/12/28/8/1/7/1/8
Comp Results: 1/2/2/4/5/7/7/9/9/10/1213/13/15/15/22/23/25/30/33/34/48/72/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Dad bod X tees it up this week with a strong mix of form, history, and course fit. He’s a proven performer in majors: THREE top-10s and multiple top-20s over the last two years, including a historic run in 2024. His recent back-to-back top-5s signal the game is in solid shape, reinforced by a 65 in the final round at Valspar, low round of the day and a strong final prep. Augusta history shows peaks of brillance, but perhaps I am a bit greedy and like to see more. His sub-70 rounds include two of eight Thursdays, one of seven Sundays and only two of fourteen weekend rounds. What does that picture look like to you? Statistically, Xander is strong off the tee, on approaches, around the greens, and putting, with very few weak points in recent SG trends. Do I see him inside Butler Cabin on Sunday? I will be the first to say, I am having a hard to reading the game of Xander this year and also have lost 0 dollars on him due to not backing him. Multiple Major winner and recent results make me ponder, but I just can’t get there. Tomorrow’s Wednesday Final Bets newsletter: S-C-H-A-U-F-F-E-L-E equals Hat Tip. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +550
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (82), PROX (145)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude DD, APEX, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 22/24/12/4
Masters Results: 4/1/10/1/18/19
Masters Scoring: 8 of 24 Rounds in 60s, Low: 66
Majors Results: 1/7/1/4/7/41/8/1
Comp Results: 3/5/7/7/7/10/12/12/13/20/20/30/MC/MC/MC
Insights: We’re getting to a point where you almost have to put Scottie’s recent results aside and look at the bigger picture. How often have we seen him at this price over the last few years? At the end of the day, Scottie loves Scottie tracks, and Augusta is absolutely a Scottie track with 4 straight Top 10s and a Top 20 finish in all 6 appearances. Some time away from the competitive grind of the sport might have been good for him, especially considering he and his wife just had another baby just about a week and a half ago. New baby energy? I could see it. All you have to decide is if you want to solo-barrel Scottie this week, or if you want to litter the middle of the board with multiple golfers. I’m currently leaning the former, but reserve the right to change my mind come Wednesday evening. -S

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Field List

Full Field List from Masters Website

Patio Preview

Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta, Georgia

• 91 players in the field

  • Cut: Top 50 and ties

• Par 72

  • 7,555+ yards

    • Plays longer because of elevation changes

• Greens: Bentgrass

  • A majority of the 44 bunkers are green-side

  • GIR% 5-6% lower than Tour average

  • Roughly 6,500 sq ft

• Course history is as predictive here as any course on Tour

• Elevation changes, sloping fairways throughout

• Can win in multiple ways here, but distance is an advantage

  • Have to get the ball in play to score here

  • “Second cut” (rough) immediately next to fairway isn’t penal in nature

• Tree-lined fairways

  • Missing fairway into the trees and pinestraw is where the issues tend to arise

• Minimal water but the water that exists is strategically placed

• Birdie-or-better rate roughly 3% lower than Tour average

• Only 5 of 18 holes play under par

• Scoring average in 2025: 72.81

• 4 Par 3s

  • All play above par

  • #4 - 240 yards

    • Sub-8% birdie rate, 27%+ bogey rate

• 10 Par 4s

  • Par 4 birdie-or-better% 6% below Tour average

  • 7 of 8 hardest holes

    • #1, #5, #11, #17, #18 all sub-11% birdie rate

      • Avoid fairway bunkers on #5 at all costs

        • Will never hit green in 2 from them

    • 7 Par 4s with at least 23% bogey rate

    • Just 1 Par 4 that plays at or under par

      • #3 avg score 4.0

    • Scottie Scheffler estimates hitting fairway on #7 is worth about a half a stroke to the field

• 4 Par 5s

  • As always, MUST take advantage of Par 5s

    • 4 easiest holes, all play under par

  • All 4 have 32%+ birdie rates

• Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee critical for success

  • Driving accuracy 10% higher than Tour average

    • Meaning everyone playing out of fairway, so you’re at a disadvantage compared to rest of field if you’re errant off tee

  • Good drive% slightly above Tour average

• When in doubt, par is a good score here

• Birdie-to-Bogey Ratio just 0.90 and 0.70 last two years

Recent Tournament History

2025: Rory McIlroy -11 (72-66-66-73); Playoff Victory over Justin Rose
2024: Scottie Scheffler -11 (66-72-71-68); 4 Stroke Victory over Ludvig Aberg
2023: Jon Rahm -12 (65-69-73-69); 4 Stroke Victory over Koepka & Mickelson
2022: Scottie Scheffler -10 (69-67-71-71); 3 Stroke Victory over Rory McIlroy
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10 (69-71-65-73); 1 Stroke Victory over Will Zalatoris
2020: Dustin Johnson -20 (65-70-65-68); 5 Stroke Victory over Im & Cam Smith
2019: Tiger Woods -13 (70-68-67-70); 1 Stroke Victory over 3 Players

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Augusta (Shots Gained: Total @ Augusta L5 years)

Tier 2

Carry Distance
Driving Accuracy
Good Drive %
Greens-in-Regulation %
Going for the Green, Hit Green
Overall Proximity
Scrambling
ARG Proximity
Three-Putt Avoidance % (Bent)
Par 5 Birdie-or-Better%
Strokes Gained: Par 4 scoring
Birdie-or-Better%
Bogey avoidance

Tier 3

Eagle rate
Approach 50-100
Approach 100-150
Approach 150-200
Approach 200+

Champ’s Course Comps

Plantation Course at Kapalua
The Riviera Country Club
Nine Bridges
Torrey Pines Golf Course

Masters Tournament Trends

Odds
0-10: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2020
11-20: 2022, 2019
21-50: 2021

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/7 (86%) within 4 shots (2/7 led)
R2: 7/7 (100%) within 3 shots (3/7 led)
R3: 7/7 (100%) within 2 shots (5/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) with a Top 35 finish in their last start
7/7 (100%) with at least 1 Top 20 finish in their last 4 starts
6/7 (86%) with at least 1 Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with at least 2 Top 10 finishes in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
4/7 (57%) with at least 2 Top 5 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/7 (57%) with a WIN in their last 3 starts
3/7 (43%) with a WIN in their last 2 starts
2/7 (29%) with at least 2 Top 5 finishes in their last 2 starts
2/7 (29%) with a Missed Cut or Withdrew in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Masters Tournament History
7/7 (100%) at least 2 prior Masters appearances
7/7 (100%) Top 25 finish within 2 years of masters win
27/28 (96%) made the cut in the previous year’s Masters
15/16 (94%) Top 8 finish in 1 of 7 events prior to the Masters
12/13 (92%) gained at least 0.25 SG:ARD in last 16 rounds prior to Masters Tournament
25/28 (89%) Top 38 finish in the previous Masters
14/16 (88%) Top 6 finish in a Major in 1 of previous 2 seasons
13/16 (81%) Top 35 finish in the start before the Masters
9/12 (75%) Top 5 finish previously at the Masters
5/7 (71%) Top 10 finish within 3 years of Masters win
5/7 (71%) at least 6 prior Masters appearances
4/7 (57%) Top 2 finish in a past Masters appearance
4/7 (57%) at least 2 Top 5 finishes in past Masters appearances
1/7 (14%) at least 1 Missed Cut within 4 years of Masters win
3/90 (3%) debutants have won the Masters Tournament (last: 1979)

First Round Leader Group Splits
1-16: 40% (2024, 2023, 2020, 2016)
17+: 80% (2025, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017)
*results can include instances where FRL from both Tee Groups, both get credited with a win.

Early Models

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Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (C Kim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Michael Thorbjornsen (Sammy) vs Ludvig Aberg (Champ)

Money leader: Champ +$1,853,731
Weeks leader: Sammy 6-5-1

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Free Bets

Champ’s Crew

Win
Russell Henley +1600 - 2.35u
Keith Mitchell +3000 - 1.20u
Michael Thorbjornsen +3000 - 1.20u

Hat Tip
Jordan Spieth | Tommy Fleetwood | Si Woo Kim

Sammy’s Selections

Win
Russell Henley +2500 w/ 3pl (boosted to +3250) (1.4 units)
Michael Thorbjornsen +4500 w/ 3pl (0.8 units)

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Final Models

Sammy

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Champ

Valero Texas Open Top 10
Ryo Hisatsune
Si Woo Kim
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Keith Mitchell
Adrien Dumont de Chassart
Ludvig Aberg
Alex Smalley
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Rodgers
Bud Cauley

Subscriber Bets

Champs’ Crew

FRL - 0.25u each

Johnny Keefer +5000
Keith Mitchell +5000
Alex Noren +5000

First Round 3-Ball

Ryo Hisatsune +115 > Davis Thompson | Joe Highsmith - 1.5u
Russell Henley +125 > J.J. Spaun | Stephan Jaeger - 1.5u
Johnny Keefer +160 > Matthieu Pavon | Denny McCarthy - 1u
Chad Ramey +190 > Mackenzie Hughes | Beau Hossler - 1u

Sammy’s Selections

FRL
Michael Thorbjornsen +4000 w/ 5pl (0.4 units)
Andrew Novak +7000 w/ 5pl (0.4 units)

Placement
Jordan Smith Top 20 +250 (1 unit)

Ties pay in full

Additional Stats/Info & DFS

Champ’s Fade of the Week

Will Zalatoris

Sammy’s Fade of the Week

JJ Spaun

DFS Chalk

Jordan Spieth
Brian Harman
Ricky Castillo
Andrew Novak
Austin Smotherman

DFS Pivots

Tommy Fleetwood
Michael Thorbjornsen
JJ Spaun
Marco Penge

Single-Entry Savants

Ludvig Aberg
Sepp Straka
Ryo Hisatsune

GPP Dart Throws

Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Jordan Smith

Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Valero Results: Finishes at the Valero Texas Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: TPC Summerlin, Port Royal Golf Course & Augusta National Golf Club

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 150175 (89), APP 175200 (91), SCR (141), ARD/SCR AVG (93), BA (76), P4 (77)
Rank: Top 75 exclude ARD; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/3/20/37
Valero Results: MC/14/MC
Comp Results: 2/7/13/51
Insights: Sweeeed is one of the most complete players in the field, showing elite consistency across all four key metrics — gaining strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting in each of his last four starts. His recent form is the best in the field, with back-to-back top-5 finishes, and after a rough stretch of MC/WD earlier in 2026, his game has rebounded in a big way. Ball-striking history at Valero checks the boxes — gaining off the tee in all three starts and on approach in two — but course history is a bit murky, with just one round in the 60s (67) across eight rounds and losing strokes both around and on the greens in all three appearances. The flashes of brilliance lately have been electric: weekend rounds at Pebble (66-67), Riviera (69-66), and a closing 67 at Bay Hill. But my eyes, brain, and heart are still wobbly from that back nine Sunday at THE PLAYERS. This week won’t present that same level of pressure, but it’s something to monitor, especially with Georgia on my mind. Lastly, don’t forget this could a “homecoming” of sorts for the Texas Tech alum and perfect setting to close out his 3rd PGA Tour title at just 26 years of age. He’s clearly on the cusp of another win; however, course history and the lingering mental block of closing make +1600 difficult to back. I am in favor of betting him next week before his odds drop after a potential strong placement here. Alas, don’t be surprised if Ludvig becomes the first player since Phil Mickelson in 2006 to win the week before the Masters and then capture the Green Jacket. Quick math from the VCU alum: +1600 for both weeks, that “double” pays +28800. -C

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (140), APP 200+ (120), PROX (110), PUTT (122)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, OTT, APP, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 8/49/7/4
Valero Results: 62/7
Comp Results: 3/14/17/19/21/33/36/46/MC
Insights: Tommmmyyyyy is one of the more interesting names near the top of the board — and a deeper dive shows his form is better than it may appear at first glance. Recent results, along with a strong last-ten stretch, highlight a player trending in the right direction and justify why oddsmakers have him priced among the favorites. The profile fits the course in key areas: off-the-tee and around-the-green play have been steady strengths, while approach and putting remain more volatile. Course history? Little of this, little of that. The 7th-place finish shows the upside, but he’s also struggled to fully piece it together, including a tough 74-81 weekend last year and just three rounds in the 60s across eight rounds played. He’s gained on approach and around the green in both appearances, but losses on the greens will need to be cleaned up this week. TPC San Antonio sets up more like a Tommy track compared to longer, distance-heavy venues like API, and recent performances at places like THE PLAYERS and Pebble reinforce that fit. At +1400, it’s easy to see why he’s among the favorites given his all-around game and consistency, but with the putter and approach acting as swing factors, he feels more like a logical contender than a must-back outright this week. Fleetwood slated as a Hat Tip pick — the only question is who joins him. -C

Russell Henley
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (130), APP 200+ (146), APP AVG (76), BOB 200+ (80)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/6/MC/19
Valero Results: 4/52/MC
Comp Results: 4/10/11/15/21/21/24/27/30/31/37/38/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: If you think this week’s winner will be an accurate driver of the golf ball that can putt better than most and clean up around the greens, then you should be betting the Russ Bus. Over the last two months, Henley leads the field in Driving Accuracy and Distance from the Edge of the Fairway, and he’s gained with the irons all but twice in his last nine outings since the Tour Championship — where he finished 2nd. Hitting greens is the biggest question mark for Russ this week, as he lost strokes on Approach three events in a row from Pebble to API, but he found it at the Players, which is an encouraging sign considering he had gained on Approach in 10 straight events prior to that skid. That said, he’s still Top 30 in this field in GIR% over his last 24 rounds and 7th in Good Drive% over the last 2 months. Assuming it all clicks again for Russ this week like it did at the Players (gains in all major categories), he should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. His solo 4th finish here last year highlights his upside at this course, as he gained in all major SG categories — including over 7.5 strokes on Approach. -S

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Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 150175 (75), APP 175200 (99), SCR (82), ARD/SCR AVG (56), PUTT (102), BOB 175200 (95)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 150175, APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 30/13/33/45
Valero Results: 5/78
Comp Results: 29/52
Insights: Randy Orton’s RKO has a flair for the dramatic, but Ryo may just be the one delivering the finishing move this week. He is a quietly intriguing option with a profile that fits this course better than most realize. His off-the-tee game has been extremely consistent, with approach not far behind, giving him a strong tee-to-green foundation. Course history adds to the appeal: a 5th-place finish here last year where he gained across all four major statistical categories. The concern is the actual “finisher” — just one round in the 60s across eight rounds here, including a Sunday 77 here in 2024, and a recent stretch without four complete rounds in the 60s (only three in his last sixteen rounds). Still, we’re viewing him in a different tier given his strokes gained profile in 2026 outside of the flat stick — if the putter cooperates, there’s clear Top 10 upside. At +3500, he profiles similarly to players like Fleetwood who thrive on courses where ball striking matters, making him a strong consideration for placement markets with room to pop if everything clicks. -C

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (139), P5 (67)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude PUTT, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 50/13/34/45
Valero Results: MC/39/13/23/4/45/22/MC
Comp Results: 8/8/12/15/21/24/25/29/30/34/39/55/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Si Woo has been on TBCH radar all year, and given his statistical profile and overall form this season, he makes a lot of sense this week. Sitting 1st in my early-week model ahead of the Valero, SWK ranks Top 20 in the field in T2G, APP, ARG, OTT, Accuracy, ARG Proximity, Bogey Avoidance, Three-Putt Avoidance and SG: Par 4. He hemorrhaged strokes with his irons at the Players, but prior to that, he had gained in every measured event dating back to the St. Jude in August (10+ events). The issue with betting SWK is and seemingly always will be the flat stick. He was a slight positive in his last time out, but he’s lost significant strokes on the greens in six of his eight events this year. That said, he’s actually been a positive putter historically at this course. Last year (-1.7) was his worst performance here and his first substantially negative putting performance since his first appearance in San Antonio back in 2016. From 2017-2022, SWK gained at least 0.8 strokes Putting in all five appearances here. That historical putting success makes me think there’s winning upside for our boy this week, especially given how good he typically is in the ball-striking department, as well as around the greens. -S

Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: OTT, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/24/20/37
Valero Results: 35 (69-69-76-69, 2022)
Comp Results: 12/23/MC
Insights: Bobby Mac comes into this week with a profile that’s both intriguing and a bit tricky to trust at the price. Recent form and broader stretch over his last 10 starts show a player trending in the right direction, with multiple strong finishes and the win at the Alfred Dunhill mixed in, but underlying stats tell a more complicated story. The putter has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting, while approach play has lagged — gaining in just one of his last four starts. That said, his off-the-tee game has been elite recently, particularly at THE PLAYERS and API, and combined with a strong short game, it gives him a path to the top of the leaderboard this week. His lone start at TPC San Antonio was quietly solid — gaining in all four categories and sat just four back of the lead heading into the weekend before a 76 derailed things. The hesitation comes at the betting number: historically, he hasn’t consistently backed up top finishes with another spike week, which makes +2000 feel a bit tight. Still, with his comfort in windy conditions and the lefty narrative in play (see recent winners here playing from the “wrong” side: Harman, Bhatia), MacIntyre has the pieces to contend, but I recommend a placement bet (Top 10, Top 20) or just keep tabs on him this week as a darkhouse for Magnolia Lane at a much more attractive number. -C

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (121), GIR (73), BS (100), BOB 150175 (84), BOB AVG (51)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude OTT, GIR, BS, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 27/41/28/8
Valero Results: MC/7/15/WD/30
Comp Results: 1/5/7/10/11/13/14/16/16/19/21/27/32/38/54/67/MC/MC
Insights: Deki enters this week as one of the more difficult players to get a firm read on. His recent form and longer-term results still show plenty of upside — multiple Top 10s and even a win in his last 10 starts — but the path to contention feels a bit unclear right now. Off-the-tee play remains the biggest concern, and with approach also dipping in two of his last three starts, it raises questions about where his ball-striking truly stands especially on a track this week that requires both to be clicking. That said, he did gain across approach, around-the-green, and putting in his last start at THE PLAYERS, which offers some optimism. Course history at the Valero is mixed: flashes of strong play, including low rounds of 66 and 68 in recent years, but he’s yet to string together four complete rounds here and has never gained on the greens in five starts. Hideki has the ceiling to win any event and this is the odds sweet spot, but with that still boxes that need to be checked and require backers to have a leap of faith. -C

Alex Noren
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (119), APP 200+ (158), BS (109), BOB 200+ (107), P3 (112)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 200+; Top 25: ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 32/24/12/29
Valero Results: 14/15
Comp Results: 2/3/15/44/62/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Alex Noren is an interesting case study this week. He has yet to finish in the Top 10 this season, but after starting the year with two missed cuts, he’s finished in the Top 35 in four straight events. Pair that with two Top 15 finishes in his only two appearances here in 2023 and 2024, and the fit really makes sense. However, Noren has been absolutely carried by his short game this season, where he ranks 7th in ARG and 15th in PUTT in this field over his last 14 rounds. Can that propel him to a win in a semi-strong field? I’m pessimistic, but I do see some upside for him in San Antonio. He’s 14th in Driving Accuracy over his last 24 rounds, while he’s 15th in SG: Par 4s. That said, sitting just 44th in Approach and 70th in GIR, there’s likely to be a little too much stress on the short game yet again this week. Placement bet or DFS exposure makes most sense for Noren this week, as 40/1 on a 43-year old golfer that’s never won the PGA Tour feels too light in the outright market. -S

Jordan Spieth
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (113), APP 150175 (123), APP 175200 (142), APP 200+ (141), PROX (122), APP AVG (108), BOB 150175 (117)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+; Top 25: TG, APP, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 11/32/11/12
Valero Results: 12/10/35/1/30/2/10/MC/41
Comp Results: 1/2/2/3/3/4/11/14/21/46/55/MC/MC
Insights: Jordy has immaculate course history at TPC San Antonio. He’s played here nine times, and the only times he finished outside the Top 35 were in his first two appearances back in 2012 (T41) and 2013 (MC). Since then, he’s finished 10, 2, T30, 1, T35, T10, T12, with the latter four starts all coming post-pandemic. Last year, his short game around here was excellent, but it was one of his worst ball-striking performances here despite the T12 finish. That’s concerning for me ahead of this week’s event, as Spieth hasn’t been the best off the tee of late. In fact, he’s 79th in this field in SG: OTT in his last 24 rounds, as well as 93rd in Driving Accuracy. Oddly enough, despite his solid putting marks this season, he’s also 99th inside of 10 feet over his last 24 rounds on Poa Trivialis greens and 73d in Three-Putt Avoidance in that same sample. At the price, there’s enough here to keep me off Spieth in the outright market, but I’m anxiously awaiting a chance to “be early” on him this year, as I do see a win in 2026 coming for him — maybe at a course that will punish him less for wayward tee shots. Spieth makes for an interesting One-and-Done or DFS play this week, but in the betting markets, I would probably stick with FRL or placements. -S

Sepp Straka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (94), PUTT (91), BOB 150175 (161), P4 (97)
Rank: Top 75 exclude BOB 150175; Top 25: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 8/13/50/2
Valero Results: 22/67/MC
Comp Results: 16/21/30/43/46/51/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Like Russ, Sepp is another player that comes to mind when I think of accurate drivers with excellent short game. It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Straka thus far, but a T2 at Pebble and a T8 at Players prove the upside is there on any given week. His course history here is lacking (only one of 10 rounds in the 60s), but that’s not a dealbreaker for me this week. At least he’s improved with every start here, going from MC (2019) to T67 (2021) and then to T22 (2023) in his three starts. In that T22 finish, he had solid gains on APP and PUTT and was basically even OTT and ARG. I smell improvement in those areas this week. In this field, Sepp ranks 8th in T2G and 5th in APP, while he’s Top 15 in Par 5 BOB% and Approach from 50-100 — which is the only approach bucket I’m measuring this week. With an outright price in the mid-20s, I believe there is some value to be had on Sepp in this field, he just needs it all to click like it did at Pebble and Sawgrass. For what it’s worth, these are Sepp’s finishes in the events prior to his last 10 majors: 7, 3, 1, T28, MC (Scottish), T5, T8, MC (Valspar), 1 and T16. -S

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Field List

Patio Preview

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
San Antonio, Texas

• Not an elevated event

  • 133 players, Top 65 & ties make cut

• Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia influence)

• One of the longer-standing PGA Tour venues

• Last chance for golfers to play way into Masters

  • Top 50 world ranking or win PGA event

• Par 72, 7,400+ yards

• Greens: Poa Trivialis (bermuda has not grown in yet)

  • Just under 6,500 sq ft average green size

  • Lower-than-average GIR rate

    • 10% below average last 2 years

  • Green comps: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook

• 60+ bunkers

• Driving Accuracy well below Tour average, as fairways on the narrow side

  • Missing fairway in rough is more than manageable

• Aforementioned lower-than-average GIR rate = Around-the-Green necessities

  • ARG Proximity closer to 7 feet than the typical 7.5-8 feet

    • Have to get it close for high one-putt looks.

      • One-putt% above 45% last 2 years (PGA average 39.5%)

• 4 Par 3s: 171 - 241 yards

  • #13 = 1 of 4 most difficult holes on course

  • Average score above 3.1 last 2 years

• 10 Par 4s: 347-481 yards

  • 5 of the 6 most difficult holes on course

  • Average score 4.07 or higher last 5 years (PGA average 4.03)

• 4 Par 5s: 553-604

  • #14 - only Par 5 with higher than a 33% birdie rate (44.8%)

  • Par 5 BOB% just 31.7% last year

• Driver usage slightly above PGA Tour average

• Birdie-to-Bogey ratio just 0.94-0.97 last 2 years

  • Difficult conditions tee-to-green

Recent Tournament History

2025: Brian Harman -9 (66-66-72-75); 3 Stroke Victory over Ryan Gerard
2024: Akshay Bhatia -20 (63-70-68-67); Playoff Victory over Denny McCarthy
2023: Corey Conners -15 (64-72-69-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Samuel Stevens
2022: J.J. Spaun -13 (67-70-69-69); 2 Stroke Victory over Matt Jones & Matt Kuchar
2021: Jordan Spieth -18 (67-70-67-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Charley Hoffman
2019: Corey Conners -20 (69-67-66-66); 2 Stroke Victory over Charley Hoffman

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Triv)

Tier 2

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Driving Accuracy
Greens-in-Regulation%
ARG Proximity
Bogey Avoidance
Three-Putt Avoidance% (Poa Triv)

Tier 3

Strokes Gained: Par 4
Par 5 BOB%
Approach 50-100 yards
Putting Inside 10’ (Poa Triv)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (Long-Very Long Courses)

Champ’s Course Comps

TPC Summerlin
Port Royal Golf Course
Augusta National Golf Club

Last 6 Valero Texas Open Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25: 2023, 2021
26-50:
51-100: 2025, 2024
101+: 2022, 2019

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/6 (100%) within 3 shots (2/6 led)
R2: 6/6 (100%) within 4 shots (2/6 led)
R3: 6/6 (100%) within 1 shot (4/6 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
5/6 (83%) with at least 2 Top 35 finishes in their last 4 starts
4/6 (67%) made the cut in their last start
4/6 (67%) with at least 1 Top 20 in their last 4 starts
3/6 (50%) with at least 1 Top 20 finish in their last 2 starts
2/6 (33%) made the cut in both of their last 2 starts
1/6 (17%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
1/6 (17%) with a Top 5 finish in their last 4 starts
0/6 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

Winner’s Texas Open History
6/6 (100%) made at least 1 prior appearance before their win
5/6 (83%) with at least 1 Top 30 finish in a prior appearance
5/6 (83%) made the cut in their last appearance prior to their win
4/6 (67%) made at least 4 prior appearances before their win
3/6 (50%) with at least 2 Top 20 finishes in past appearances
2/6 (33%) with at least 1 Top 5 finish in a prior appearance
1/6 (17%) was a previous winner at the event

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 33% (2022, 2019)
PM: 67% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2021)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

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Course History

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