Course

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades > Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
the Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick > Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark > Burns) +121,193
US Open: Jon Rahm (Sammy) vs Tommy Fleetwood (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$1,805,938
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 13-9-2

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
USO Results: Finishes at US Opens
Shinnecock Results: Finishes at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Oakdale Golf & Country Club, TPC Twin Cities & The Concession Golf Club

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +1000
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/7/19/1
USO Results: 19/2/2/5/7/8/9/MC/MC/MC/9/23/41/MC/1/MC/10
Shinnecock Results: MC (80-70, 2018)
Comp Results: 6/9
Insights: Rory’s season has understandably been viewed through the lens of the Masters victory, but it’s easy to overlook just how solid the overall major form has been. In his two majors this year he’s posted a win at Augusta and a T7 at the PGA, while his limited schedule since April has kept him relatively fresh heading into one of the biggest tests of the season. The ball striking remains exactly where you’d want it, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in each of his last four starts. The short game has been more of a mixed bag, with the putter producing a strong spike at the PGA Championship before settling back to field average at both the Masters and Memorial. When it comes to the U.S. Open, few players can match Rory’s recent consistency. Since missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, he’s rattled off seven consecutive U.S. Open finishes inside the Top 20, including six Top 10s and back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2023 and 2024. That’s an incredible level of consistency in a championship designed to expose every weakness in a player’s game. It’s also worth noting that this marks 15 years since his breakthrough U.S. Open victory at Congressional, and while that feels like a lifetime ago, his current form suggests another serious run is well within reach.Shinnecock should fit the strengths of his game far more than the result from 2018 would indicate. Elite driving, strong long-iron play, and the ability to handle difficult scoring conditions are all traits that have defined recent U.S. Open champions. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season, and Rory checks yet another historical box. The profile is easy to like, the major pedigree is unquestioned, and there are very few red flags entering the week. At 10/1 you’re paying for one of the most likely winners in the field, but it’s hard to argue he doesn’t have every tool needed to finally turn those recent near misses into another U.S. Open title. -C

Jon Rahm
Odds: +1400
Stats: n/a
Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/16/2/8
USO Results: 7/10/12/1/23/3/MC/MC/23
Shinnecock Results: MC (78-77, 2018)
Comp Results: 32
Insights: Jon Rahm continues to put himself in contention almost every time he tees it up. In 11 starts this season, he’s posted nine Top 8s, eight Top 5s, seven finishes of runner-up or better, and two victories. The runner-up at the PGA Championship was another reminder that the game is still in elite shape, and he followed that with another second-place finish in Spain where the only thing holding him back was an opening-round 73. The ball-striking remains exactly where you’d expect, gaining Off-the-Tee in four straight starts and on Approach in three of his last four. His U.S. Open record may not jump off the page like Rory’s, but it’s quietly one of the strongest in the field. The 2021 champion has finished T12 or better in each of the last four U.S. Opens and owns six Top 12 finishes in nine career starts. The missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 feels largely irrelevant given how much his game has matured since then. Add in the fact that every U.S. Open winner since 2019 had already won that season and Rahm checks yet another key trend box. At 14/1, you’re paying for one of the most complete profiles in the field, and it’s hard to find many reasons he won’t be in the mix again come Sunday. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (81), APP 200+ (85), PROX (128)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 12/3/14/2
USO Results: 7/41/3/2/7/MC/27/MC
Shinnecock Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 5
Insights: Scottie Scheffler arrives at Shinnecock as the deserved favorite, even if the win column has been surprisingly quiet by his standards. Since winning his first start of the season, he’s gone 11 straight events without a victory, yet still owns 10 Top 20s, seven Top 10s, seven Top 5s, and six finishes of third or better in 12 starts. The ball striking remains elite, gaining both Off-the-Tee and on Approach in four straight starts, while the short game flashed back to peak form at Memorial with his best around-the-green performance in months. As always, the question isn’t whether Scottie will create chances—it’s whether the putter does enough to separate him from the field when the pressure mounts. His U.S. Open record suggests another serious run is coming. After a missed cut in his debut, Scheffler has posted finishes of 7th, 2nd, 3rd, 41st, and 7th over his last five appearances, proving he has both the consistency and ceiling required to contend in this championship. This marks the 15th consecutive major where he’s opened at single-digit odds, and every U.S. Open winner since 2019 entered the week with a victory already that season. Add in the possibility of moving one step closer to the career Grand Slam and celebrating his 30th birthday with a trophy on Sunday, and the storyline is easy to see. At 5/1 you’re paying a premium, but you’re also betting on the player with the highest floor in the field and arguably the highest ceiling if the putter cooperates. -C

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Field List

Link to the Players Field

Click Link For a DataGolf Perspective

Patio Preview

Shinnecock Hills GC
Southampton, New York

• Field: 156 players

  • Top 60 + ties make cut

• Par 70, ~7,500 yards

• Extremely difficult course that does not reward one particular style like distance

  • Players have to be well rounded and adaptable

  • More positional than bomb-and-gouge

• Last time at Shinnecock: 2018 when Brooks Koepka won

  • Course was extremely difficult, to a point of being unfair

  • This will be the first US Open played at Shinnecock without modifications to the original 1931 design from William Flynn

• Weather will play a role — wind specifically

• Greens: Bent/Poa mix

  • 7,500 sq ft

    • Contoured and extremely firm

    • Stimpmeter: 12

• Punishing 5'“ rough surrounding fairways and greens

  • Fairways will be relatively easy to hit after being widened to original design, but there is no first cut — it’s fairway straight into rough

    • Fairway tends to get more narrow the further you get off the tee

• 150+ bunkers

• Four Par 3s ranging from 157 to 252 yards

• 12 Par 4s ranging from 371 to 501 (average 455)

• Two Par 5s at 592 and 614

Recent US Open Results

2025: J.J. Spaun -1 (66-72-79-72); 2 Stroke Victory over Robert MacIntyre
2024: Bryson DeChambeau -6 (67-69-67-71); 1 Stroke Victory over Rory McIlroy
2023: Wyndham Clark -10 (64-67-69-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Rory McIlroy
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick -6 (68-70-68-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Scottie Scheffler
2021: Jon Rahm -6 (69-70-72-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Louis Oosthuizen
2020: Bryson DeChambeau -6 (69-68-70-67); 6 Stroke Victory over Matthew Wolff
2019: Gary Woodland -13 (68-65-69-69); 3 Stroke Victory over Brooks Koepka

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Scorecard

Weather Forecast

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades > Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
the Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick > Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Wyndham Clark (Sammy) vs Sam Burns (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$1,927,131
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 12-9-2

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The 2026 edition of the World Cup feels especially exciting given the fact that it will be played in North America so close to home. Not only that, but the tournament expanded and now includes 48 teams — up from 32 — as well as over 100 matches over the course of nearly a month and a half.

It doesn’t end there, as this feels somewhat like the end of an era in international soccer. This very well could be the last World Cup for a laundry list of soccer (fútbol) legends that includes Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar, Luka Modrić, Kevin de Bruyne, Manuel Neuer, Heung-Min Son, and more, so it’s somewhat bittersweet in that regard.

The vast North American climate will influence this tournament. Some teams will play in air-conditioned stadiums, while others play outdoors in Miami and Mexico, while others play outdoors in Canada, Seattle, and New York. That is absolutely something to monitor, especially in the knockout stages. For example, in a potential England vs. Brazil matchup played in Miami, Brazil are going to be at a huge advantage not only because of the abundance of Brazilians that will be in the stadium, but because of their tolerance to North American summer climate.

We’re in for an amazing tournament. Old and young legends playing on American soil, local viewing times, a USA squad that may have quarterfinal upside in the right path…it all makes for an incredible viewing experience and one for which I cannot wait. Let’s dig into some betting market analysis, shall we?

All lines and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Please, PLEASE, PLEASE be sure to shop around for best price before locking in your bets. Odds will vary by book, sometimes vastly — especially in the futures market.

2026 Men’s World Cup - Tournament Winner

• Spain +450

• France +500

• England +650

• Portugal +800

• Brazil +850

• Argentina +1000

• Germany +1300

• Netherlands +1600

• Belgium +2200

• Norway +3000

• Colombia +3500

• Japan +4000

• Morocco +5000

• USA, Mexico, Uruguay +6000

• Switzerland, Croatia +6500

• Türkiye +7500

• Ecuador +8000

• Everyone else +10000 or longer

Insights: If you’re a trends bettor, then you’d like to know favorites typically don’t win (neither do long shots). Spain were the last pre-tournament favorite to win in 2010, and that was the first time it happened since 1994. Also, teams don’t usually go back-to-back, which is unfortunate for Messi and his fellow Argentinians.

Of the two, Argentina are obviously the more attractive bet at more than double the odds of Spain, who aren’t really on my radar given the price. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t win, but just like March Madness, I don’t see too much value in tying my money up for a month at a 5/1 return.

That also means I’m out on France, which is a pretty scary proposition. The French have arguably the best attack in the world and have ample international experience, but they are not flawless. Les Bleus’ almighty attack can look mortal against deep, elite defensive blocks that can limit opposing athleticism. Also, I’m slightly concerned about Mike Maignan after he allowed 1.26 goals per 90 minutes in the Nations League while carrying just a 68.4% save percentage and 40% clean sheets. For reference, his save percentage was better than 88% in the Euros before that and his clean-sheet percentage was above 66%. To boot, this is Mike’s first World Cup as the starting keeper after missing the tournament in 2022. He has big shoes to fill behind Hugo Lloris.

Well, that’s three of the six teams with odds of 10/1 or shorter to win the tournament. At +650, I won’t go anywhere close to England, who are way overpriced in my opinion. Not only do they have a new skipper with minimal international coaching experience, but I don’t fancy their chances in the North American climate. Imagine, a quarterfinal matchup against Brazil outdoors in Miami. That would be a tremendous uphill battle for England.

Speaking of Brazil, they are flying somewhat under the radar this year. Usually, they’re one of the favorites at the top off the odds board, so at around 9/1 or 10/1, I’d be lying if I said this price doesn’t jump off the page. Carlo Ancelotti has one of the most accomplished résumés in soccer, and while he has yet to coach at the international level, he is the only manager to take part in six Champions League finals and the only manager to win league titles in all five of Europe’s top five leagues. Needless to say, he adds an incredible amount of tactical structure to this roster, which is still loaded with talent both on the attack and on defense — though I question if they are as talented as they were in years past. It goes without saying, this squad should be just fine in the summer weather and has a relatively easy group draw, but after that, I could see them being exposed to familiar South American opponents that are not intimidated by them.

Portugal is another interesting squad with a decent amount of perceived value, though it’s gradually been extracted as we get closer to the tournament’s start. They have arguably the best midfield in the tournament, accompanied by a rock solid defense with an elite keeper in Diogo Costa. In fact, Costa kept 21 clean sheets in club play, and there’s not a ton of high-level offense in their group. Interestingly enough, the biggest question for this team is finishing given CR7’s age, but there’s still plenty here to be excited about. Assuming they win their group, they’d have a favorable draw until the quarterfinals, where they’d presumably meet Argentina in Kansas City — which makes sense given both teams are priced almost exactly the same. The winner of that game would have to go through likely either Brazil, England, or Mexico(?), and I favor Portual against all three, but all of this could change if there’s a surprise group winner. If you like Portugal (spoiler, I do) make sure to shop around. I wouldn’t take anything under 8/1.

IF all goes according to plan, Spain and France would have to play in the semifinals, which makes their price tag even less attractive. Because of that, I’m going to focus my betting attention on who I think will be playing on the right side of the knockout bracket, especially given the extra perceived value in the number.

World Cup Winner Best Bet: Portugal +800 or better

Various books are at +900, you can use various boosts to get this number over +1000

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Canada Results: Finishes at RBC Canadian Opens
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Castle Pines Golf Club, The Summit Club & Shadow Creek Golf Course

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (112), BOB 175200 (99)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 36/14/52/1
Canada Results: 20/10/MC
Comp Results: 12/28
Insights: Fitzmagic arrives as the betting favorite, but the current profile comes with more caution than his number suggests. The around-the-green game has been elite and the irons have remained above average, yet the Off-the-Tee game has cooled noticeably since his spring surge. He’s now lost strokes OTT in two of his last three starts and the putter is coming off one of its worst performances since the 2025 Valero Texas Open last week at the Memorial. His Canada history is respectable rather than dominant. In three appearances he’s gained Off-the-Tee and on approach in two of them, while gaining on the greens in two of three starts. The concern is that he hasn’t shown the same complete-game form that fueled the wins at Valspar and Heritage, and this price assumes a return to that level. The upside is obvious. He’s still one of the strongest all-around players in the field and the course shouldn’t punish the recent driving dip as severely as Memorial or Quail Hollow would. But at 12/1, you’re paying for the ceiling while ignoring several recent warning signs. End of the day, this reads as the clearest hat tip of the week candidate. -C

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (115), PROX (109), BOB 175200 (126)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/MC/5/23
Canada Results: 21/2/6
Comp Results: 5/38/59
Insights: Tommy’s approach funk continues, costing him a realistic chance at a win at the Memorial. You saw the upside when his irons were on, like on the late eagle to catapult him into 1st for a short amount of time, but the approach game suffered on Thursday and Friday — when he played to worse than a -1.6 on approach. He eventually finished as a slight negative, pretty much a zero on approach, and a Top 5 at a course like Muirfield Village when being a slight negative on approach tells you everything else is clicking for Tommy, and that a win is on the horizon if he can get his irons to cooperate. Could it be this week? It could, but I have severe PTSD when thinking about betting on Tommy in Canada, as I was on him a few years ago when Nick Taylor nailed that eagle to win over him. At the end of the day, 14/1 is too rich for my blood given his field ranks of 50 in SG: Approach and 82 in overall proximity over his last 24 rounds, but I don’t mind including him in a placement parlay or in your DFS lineups. -S

Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (123), ARD/SCR AVG (84), PUTT (136), BOB 150175 (81)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PUTT; Top 25 exclude: TD, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB 150175, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 14/55/11/MC
Canada Results: 50/MC/18
Comp Results: 28/38
Insights: If you believe in the “due factor,” then you have to love Brooks this week. Sure, the LIV defect hasn’t exactly showcased the upside we hoped for, but he’s been a steady Eddy of late, finishing in the Top 20 in 6 out of his 8 solo events since being cut in Phoenix. He gained all around at the CJ Cup, which isn’t all that impressive truthfully, but it’s nice to see from a form and momentum standpoint. Irons have been mostly on this year, as has his off-the-tee play. Short game is the concern, but I also feel it’s priced in. For what it’s worth, Brooks’ field ranks over the last 24 rounds are as follows: 7th SG: Approach, 3rd SG: Tee-To-Green, 9th Birdie-or-Better %, 1st Approach from 200+ Yards, 7th SG: Par 3, 3rd Par 5 BOB%. Those mark are accompanied by top-25 ranks in SG: OTT, GIR% from Fairway and Bogey Avoidance. What more could you want in the 20-30 range? Obviously try to get as close to 30 as possible, but I really like the idea of Brooks this week. -S

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Field List

Link to the Players Field

Patio Preview

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Caledon, Ontario

• 2nd time hosting this event

  • 38th course to host the Canadian Open (121-year history)

  • 8th since 1977

• Par 70, ~7,400 yards

  • one of the longer Par 70s the PGA Tour sees all season

• Parkland-style layout

• Greens: Bentgrass/poa mix

  • Average 6,500 sqft

  • Not very fast — 11.5 on Stimpmeter

• Rough: 3.5 – 4” Kentucky bluegrass

• Major renovations from Ian Andrew in 2023 with consultation of PGA Tour

  • Lengthened

  • Changed green complexes

  • Reposition hazards to challenge the game’s elite

    • Bunkers added into common landing areas

  • Fairways narrowed/tightened landing areas

• 4 Par 3s

  • Ranging from 144 - 237 yards

  • 2.97 average in 2025

• 12 Par 4s

  • Ranging from 350 - 530 yards

  • 4.00 average in 2025

• 2 Par 5s

  • 542 yards, 581 yards

  • 4.45 average in 2025

• Winter was long in this area and spring has been wet

  • Unsure of rollout on fairways

Recent RBC Canadian Open Tournament Results

2025: Ryan Fox -18 (66-66-64-66); Playoff Victory over Sam Burns
2024: Robert MacIntyre -16 (64-66-66-68); 1 Stroke Victory over Ben Griffin
2023: Nick Taylor -17 (75-67-63-66); Playoff Victory over Tommy Fleetwood
2022: Rory McIlroy -19 (66-68-65-62); 2 Stroke Victory over Tony Finau
2019: Rory McIlroy -22 (67-66-64-61); 7 Stroke Victory over S Lowry & W Simpson

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Scorecard

Weather Forecast

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades > Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
the Memorial Tournament: Matt Fitzpatrick (Sammy) vs Cameron Young (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$1,967,464
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 11-9-2

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Muirfield Village Results: Finishes at Muirfield Village Golf Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), The Concession Golf Club & East Lake Golf Club

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (109), SCR (89), ARD/SCR AVG (55), PUTT (52)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/4/8/4
Muirfield Village Results: 16/5 (2 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 16/21/61
Insights: Colonial wasn’t a bad result by any means, but it was another reminder that closing remains the final hurdle for Ludvig. The encouraging part is that every other piece of the game continues trending in the right direction. He’s gained OTT in four straight starts, gained on approach in seven of his last eight, and bounced back with a positive putting week after losing strokes on the greens in three of his previous four starts. Even the around-the-green game, often criticized, was essentially field average last week and has only cost him strokes twice in ten starts this season. Muirfield sets up far better on paper than Colonial. Longer approach shots, a premium on elite ball striking, and a course where he’s already posted finishes of 5th and 16th while gaining strokes across the board in both appearances. Bamford highlighted that Ludvig ranks 3rd in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total at Muirfield, while his 8th and 11th-place GIR finishes over the last two weeks suggest the iron game remains in excellent shape. The question isn’t talent or fit. It’s whether he can finally convert elite form into a victory. Three straight top-10s, two top-5s in his last three starts, and nine consecutive made cuts tell you the breakthrough is close. At 16/1, plenty will be willing to pay for that upside. Whether he makes the final card is another story, check out tomorrow’s newsletter for the end result. -C

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 7/19/1/46
Muirfield Village Results: 15/7/18/18/32/MC/8/4/15/57/MC/5/10 (12 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63, FRL 2011 & 2014)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/2/4/6/7/8/9/10/14/16/23/MC
Insights: Muirfield Village remains one of the most puzzling stops on Rory’s schedule. Despite 13 appearances, 10 wins on Bentgrass greens, and a resume that screams course fit, he still hasn’t won here. In fact, Muirfield is the only course Rory has played 10+ times without a victory. The upside is obvious. He continues to gain OTT at an elite level, has gained on approach in seven straight starts at Muirfield, and has gained OTT in 12 of 13 appearances here. Prior to skipping last year, he had gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and with the putter in each of his previous four visits. His current form remains strong as well, highlighted by the Masters victory and a solid T7 at the PGA Championship. The concern is that results here have consistently fallen short of expectations. He hasn’t posted a top-5 at Memorial since 2016, has broken 70 just twice on Sunday in 13 appearances, and his last serious run at the title ended with a closing 75 in 2023 after entering Sunday tied for the lead. If Rory arrives fully motivated, there’s no reason he shouldn’t contend. The question is whether this becomes another “good week” at Muirfield or finally the long-awaited breakthrough. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +300
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (83), PROX (135), APP AVG (54), BOB 175200 (64)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/14/2/2
Muirfield Village Results: 1/1/3/3/22/MC (7 of 22 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/5/6/22/29
Insights: Muirfield is a true Scottie track. Demanding tee-to-green excellence, patience, and avoiding big mistakes are exactly what he does better than anyone in the world right now. Two straight wins, three top-3 finishes in his last four appearances, and a staggering gap between himself and the rest of the field. Over the last three Memorials, Scottie sits at -24 cumulative while no other player is better than -9. The underlying form remains exactly what you’d expect. He’s gained in every major strokes-gained category over his last four starts, continues to dominate OTT and on approach, and even the putter has flashed enough recently to remove one of the few remaining concerns. His 3rd at the Nelson, PGA Championship first-round lead, and runner-up finish at the Cadillac all point toward another week where he’s likely to be near the top of the board. Six of his 14 career PGA TOUR wins have come on Bentgrass greens, he’s No. 1 in my custom model (see below), and unlike some weeks where 3/1 feels impossible to justify, this may be one of the few spots where the number actually feels fair. -C

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Field List

Link to the Players Field

Patio Preview

Muirfield Village Golf Club
Dublin, OH

• Par 72, 7,550+ yards

• Difficult Jack Nicklaus design

• Signature event with cut: top 50 and ties

• Greens: Bentgrass

  • 5,000 sq ft on average

  • Typically roll pure

  • Surrounded by deep, penal bunkers

    • Makes it difficult to gain strokes ARD

• Wide fairways for landing OTT, but high missed fairway penalty

• Must have elite 2nd shot in order to contend/win at this course

• Driver usage here about Tour average last 5 years

• GIR% 10% lower than Tour average

  • GIR% from rough sub-40%

• 60%+ approach shots from 150+ yards

  • 40%+ of approach shots 150-200 yards

• Scrambling % >5% lower than Tour average

• 3-putt avoidance lower than Tour average

• One-putt% higher than Tour average

• Four Par 3s

  • Ranging from 180 to 220 yards

  • All play above par

    • 2 of the most difficult 5 holes

    • All 4 are of the most 10 difficult holes

• 10 Par 4s

  • Ranging from 360 to 503 yards

  • 3 of 4 most difficult holes on course

  • All play above par

• Four Par 5s

  • Ranging from 545 to 590 yards

  • Only 4 holes on course that play below par

    • All about 30% or better birdie rate, but bogeys can be found as well

  • P5 BOB% about 10% below Tour average

Recent the Memorial Tournament Results

2025: Scottie Scheffler -10 (70-70-68-70); 4 Stroke Victory over Ben Griffin
2024: Scottie Scheffler -8 (67-68-71-74); 1 Stroke Victory over Collin Morikawa
2023: Viktor Hovland -7 (71-71-69-70); Playoff Victory over Denny McCarthy
2022: Billy Horschel -13 (70-68-65-72); 4 Stroke Victory over Aaron Wise
2021: Patrick Cantlay -13 (69-67-68-71); Playoff Victory over Collin Morikawa
2020: Jon Rahm -9 (69-67-68-75); 3 Stroke Victory over Ryan Palmer
2019: Patrick Cantlay -19 (68-69-68-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Adam Scott

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Scorecard

Weather Forecast

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades > Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: Sungjae Im (Sammy) vs Rickie Fowler (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$1,967,405
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 11-9-1

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Colonial Results: Finishes at Colonial Country Club
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Harbour Town Golf Links, Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) & TPC Southwind

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (116), SCR (76), BOB 150175 (88)
Rank: Top 75 across; Top 25 exclude APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, SCR, PUTT, BOB 150175, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 4/8/4/21
Colonial Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 1/4/9/10/17/40/54/MC
Insights: Sweeedddd enters Colonial as the rightful statistical favorite in this field, but the betting conversation becomes far more complicated at sub-10/1 on a course debut. That’s where comp courses matter, and fortunately for Ludvig backers, the profile checks plenty of boxes. Wins and high-end finishes at similar positional ball-striking layouts continue to support the fit, while the current form remains elite: 3 straight Top 10s, 2 Top 5s in his last 3 starts, 9 straight made cuts, and 5 Top 5s in just 11 starts this season. The ball-striking has been exactly what you’d expect from one of the premier talents in the world. He’s gained OTT in 4 straight and the approach play has been elite in 6 of his last 7 starts, including major spikes at THE PLAYERS and the PGA Championship. Statistically, he ranks 1st in this field Tee-to-Green, 1st in Approach, 1st in Birdie or Better, 2nd in Ball Striking, and Top 10 across every major scoring category. If there’s a weakness, it’s the same one that continues to follow him late on Sundays — the putter. He’s lost strokes on the greens in 3 of his last 4 starts and the confidence just doesn’t look fully there right now. The blade putter conversation will only continue to grow louder if this cold stretch continues. Around-the-green play can also get shaky at times, which matters at a course like Colonial where creativity and recovery are constantly tested. The talent and profile absolutely justify him being the favorite this week. The question is whether you want to pay this number on a debutant still searching for that killer closing stretch again. For me, this feels like one of the clearest “hat tip but no bet” situations on the board despite all the respect in the world for the current form and statistical dominance. -C

Russell Henley
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (82), APP 125150 (88), APP 175200 (125), BOB 125150 (88), BOB 175200 (100), LR2 (88)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200; Top 25: TG, APP 150175, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BA, P3, P4, P5, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/49/25/3
Colonial Results: 16/58 (4 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 67)
Comp Results: 4/6/6/6/7/8/9/10/12/13/17/19/22/23/25/26/27/30/30/65/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russ feels like one of the most logical fits on the entire board this week at Colonial — which is exactly why the number feels just a touch too short. When you think of Colonial Country Club, you think precision, patience, bogey avoidance, and positional golf over raw power. That immediately brings Russ into the conversation. In fact, he graded out 1st in my custom model this week using the free Golf Betting System model builder (see model and link below), weighting variables like bogey avoidance, par-4 scoring, par-70 performance, Texas form, Bentgrass putting, driving accuracy, GIR, and SG: Tee-to-Green. The overall statistical fit is undeniable. In this field he ranks 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Early Round Scoring, and sits 6th overall across my key metrics. The concern? The current form isn’t nearly as sharp as the profile suggests. Outside of the T3 at Augusta, Henley has quietly cooled off a bit with the irons and putter both trending more negative than positive over his last five starts. The around-the-green game has been the one constant all season, but the approach play hasn’t had the same elite consistency we’re used to seeing from him. Colonial history is limited but quietly encouraging. He gained on approach and on the greens in both prior appearances here, including a T16 in 2023, though he lost strokes OTT and around the green both times. That’s notable because the current OTT form is actually stronger entering this week than it was in those prior starts. At the end of the day, this feels like one of those “perfect on paper” Colonial fits where the market fully knows it too. If this number drifted into the 20-25/1 range, I’d be far more aggressive. At current odds, it’s another respect-filled hat tip more than a full-send betting card addition for me. -C

Justin Thomas
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 125 exclude GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BA, P4, LR2
Rank: Top 75 exclude GIR, APP 125150, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, BOB 125150, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4, LR2; Top 25: TD, ARD, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/13/23/77
Colonial Results: MC/40/10 (5 of 10 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 1/1/5/8/11/12/13/25/26/28/30/35/58/71/75/77/MC
Insights: JT feels like one of the most fascinating names on the board this week because the statistical profile screams “fade,” while the recent eye test and course setup scream “dangerous.” Colonial may end up being exactly the type of track that allows Justin to fully lean into what’s quietly become his strongest lane lately — shorter, positional Par 70s where he can club down, control the golf ball, and let elite creativity take over. The momentum angle is real as well. That Sunday 65 at the PGA Championship completely changed the tone around JT after what looked like another frustrating major week. If not for the Saturday 72, we may very well have been talking about a third PGA Championship victory. More importantly, the Cam Young putter switch finally appears to be stabilizing the weakest part of his game. After losing strokes putting in 4 of his first 6 starts this season, JT has now gained over a stroke on the greens in back-to-back starts. The numbers underneath remain ugly though. In this field, he ranks outside the Top 100 in five key statistical categories and sits 87th overall across the season-long stat profile. That’s exactly why I presented the fade case last week and why the outright price still feels uncomfortable. But this setup is very different than Aronimink. Colonial allows JT to throttle back, shape shots, rely on creativity, and lean into the same skillset that won him Harbour Town and Southwind. Add in the fact he ranks No. 1 in this field in Hanse course performances over the last five years and owns the most Bentgrass wins in the field, and suddenly the upside case becomes much easier to visualize. For me, JT has officially moved out of the fade category and firmly into the “very intriguing” pile this week. If I were choosing between the top names discussed so far, I’d lean JT over both Henley and Ludvig at current prices — though the number still makes it more of a calculated gamble than an auto-click outright. -C

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Field List

Link to the Players Field

Patio Preview

Colonial Country Club
Fort Worth, Texas

• Par 70, 7,289 yards

  • 135 players, top 65 and ties make cut

• Greens: Bentgrass

  • Avg 5,000 sq ft (small)

  • Run Faster Than Most

• Less than driver course with high rough penalty

• GIR% about 5% lower than Tour average

• Average Proximity about a half foot under Tour average

• Average Distance of Birdie Putts Made about 1.5 feet more than Tour average

• Birdie-to-Bogey ratio way below Tour average

  • Far from a Birdie Fest

  • Winning score expected -12 to -15 range

• 4 Par 3s

  • Ranging from 190 to 250 yards

  • Average score over par

  • 4 of most 11 difficult holes

• 12 Par 4s

  • Ranging from 385 to 480 yards

  • Only 2 of them carry greater than a 20% birdie rate (#2, #6)

  • 2 carry greater than a 20% bogey rate (#3, #5)

  • 4 of the 5 most difficult holes on course

• 2 Par 5s

  • 580+, 630+ yards

  • Make up half the holes that play under par on this course

Recent Charles Schwab Challenge Results

2025: Ben Griffin -12 (66-63-68-71); 1 Stroke Victory over Matti Schmid
2024: Davis Riley -14 (66-64-66-70); 5 Stroke Victory over Bradley & Scheffler
2023: Emiliano Grillo -8 (67-65-72-68); Playoff Victory over Adam Schenk
2022: Sam Burns -9 (71-68-67-65); Playoff Victory over Scottie Scheffler
2021: Jason Kokrak - 14 (-65-65-66-70); 2 Stroke Victory over Jordan Spieth
2020: Daniel Berger -15 (65-67-67-66); Playoff Victory over Collin Morikawa
2019: Kevin Na -13 (70-62-69-66); 4 Stroke Victory over Tony Finau

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Updated Thursday AM

Scorecard

Weather Forecast

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup: Blades Brown (Sammy) vs Ryo Hisatsune (Champ)

Money leader: Champ leads +$2,054,784
Weeks Leader: Sammy leads 10-9-1

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Byron Nelson Results: Finishes at the Byron Nelson (TPC Craig Ranch Only)
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course), TPC Scottsdale & Glen Oaks Club

Brooks Koepka
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude SCR (148), ARD/SCR AVG (98), PUTT (141), BA (89), P3 (81), P4 (104), ER1 (100)
Rank: Top 75 exclude SCR, PUTT; Top 25 exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3, P4, ER1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 55/11/12/MC
Byron Nelson Results: MC (71-70, 2021)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/41/42/49/MC
Insights: Brooks is a headliner almost everywhere he tees it up, but especially this week in a weaker-field Byron Nelson. For me, TPC Scottsdale and Brooks go hand in hand, and with Scottsdale showing up as a comp course, he immediately enters the conversation. The lone start at TPC Craig Ranch came pre-renovation back in 2021, so I’m far more focused on the current state of his game than the missed cut. The biggest takeaway lately? The driver is starting to look like vintage Brooks again. He’s gained OTT in 4 straight starts and looked dangerous at both majors this season. The approach play has been more volatile after an electric start to his PGA TOUR return, but the ceiling is still obvious — gaining over 3.5 strokes on approach in Round 1 of the PGA Championship before cooling off over the weekend. The issue remains the putter. It’s the clear reason he still doesn’t have a Top 5 this season, with too many elite iron weeks not fully cashing in. That said, there were encouraging signs last week as the putter quietly gained over 1.5 strokes across the final 54 holes after a rough Thursday on the greens. At 25/1, the number sits right on the edge for me, while anything sub-20 becomes more hat-tip territory. You’re betting on the possibility that one of these spike rounds finally turns into four complete days. I’d be shocked if Brooks doesn’t post one of the low rounds of the week — the real question is whether he can sustain it long enough to truly contend Sunday or settle for another backdoor Top 20. -C

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +170
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 200+ (85), PROX (132)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP 200+, PROX, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/2/2/2
Byron Nelson Results: 1/5/15/47
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/3/7/20/25/MC
Insights: The odds board is wild this week. Scottie is just sitting there sub-2:1, and there are only 3 other players under 30/1. In fact, only 10 players are shorter than 50/1 in this field. All this to say, oddsmakers are calling their shot on a Scottie win here, and it makes all the sense in the world. He’s been striping the shit out of the ball, gaining over 9 strokes to the field in the ball-striking department in 3 of his last 4 event — including last week at the PGA. His biggest downfall was on the greens, where he lost more than 1.5 strokes over the course of the weekend, but those greens were objectively ridiculous. He won’t see that this week at the “Bunny Ranch” (still waiting for a Playboy sponsorship). On top of the typical ball-striking form, Scottie is the defending champ here after winning by 8 strokes last year (-31). He gained almost 13 strokes APP per RickRunGood’s numbers, while gaining almost 5.5 OTT and over 6.5 on the greens. His only negative was -1.3 ARG, so he could have scored even better, which is a scary thought. If there was ever a week to play Without Scottie markets or each-ways, it’s this one. Or, you could just not bet the event like I’m considering doing. All signs point toward a Scottie win, but given the clownish birdie-fest set up here, anyone could get hot and flirt with a score somewhere -25 to -30 — especially with benign weather conditions. -S

Jordan Spieth
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (135), APP 200+ (134), PROX (148), APP AVG (110)
Rank: Top 75 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG; Top 25: TG, DD, OTT/DD AVG, BS, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 18/52/18/33
Byron Nelson Results: 4/MC/2/9
Comp Results: 2/4/4/6/6/7/9/34/60/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Speef is one of the toughest clicks on the board this week because the course history and Texas narrative are almost impossible to ignore. TPC Craig Ranch has clearly brought out his best: 11 rounds in the 60s across 14 career rounds here, a runner-up, another Top 5, and a closing 62 last year that reminded everyone of a joyous Spieth experience. The concern remains the same as it has for most of 2026: can the irons hold up for four straight rounds? The OTT play has been very solid since March and the short game still flashes elite-level saves, but the approach numbers remain shaky compared to the elite names priced around him. Last week at Aronimink was encouraging though, gaining over half a stroke on approach while also posting his best around-the-green performance of the season during the pressure of a career grand slam attempt. At Craig Ranch, Spieth has historically gained heavily OTT and with his irons while the putter tends to hover around field average — which is honestly all he needs on a course where birdie chances come in bunches. He still hasn’t posted a Top 10 this season, a trend that goes all the way back to the 2025 Memorial Tournament, but this is one of the clearest opportunities yet to change that. The question is whether +1400 properly reflects his actual win equity versus the comfort of the course fit and home-state narrative. I lean more placement/DFS cornerstone than an outright, but wouldn’t be shocked if he was firmly in the mix on Sunday again. -C

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Field List

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TPC Craig Ranch
McKinney, Texas

• Long course, but reduced distance following renovation

  • Par 71, 7,385 yards

• 145 players; cut T65 and ties

• Greens: Bentgrass

  • 6,700+ sq ft (above average size)

  • 11.5 Stimpmeter but could be faster post Reno

• 80+ bunkers, 8 holes with water

• Rough: 3” Rye

• 4 Par 3s

  • 3 of the 4 are 200+ yards

  • 2 of the hardest 5 holes

• 11 Par 4s

  • 7 play at or under par

  • #12 and #16 hardest 2 holes on course

    • Both just over 490 yards

    • sub-10% birdie rate, 20%+ bogey rate

• 3 Par 5s

  • 3 easiest holes on course

  • All have 50%+ birdie rates

    • #5 and #9 3%+ eagle rates

• Last 4 years 74%+ Driver usage

  • 79.5% last year

• Good drive percentage 5% higher than Tour average in 2025

• Greens in regulation nearly 4% higher than Tour average

• 181-183 yards average Approach distance last 4 years

  • 35%+ of approach shots come from 200+ last 2 years

• Putting inside 10’ slightly easier than Tour average

• Birdies or better 4% better than Tour average (25%)

• 5-year birdie-to-bogey ratio: 2.08 (Tour average 1.44)

• Average round score no higher than 69.5; as low as 68.5

• Par 4 and Par 5 scoring easlier than Tour average

  • Avg P4 scoring: 3.93 (Tour 4.04)

  • Avg P5 scoring: 4.48 (Tour 4.63)

    • P5 BOB 9% higher than Tour average

Recent Byron Nelson Results

2025: Scottie Scheffler -31 (61-63-66-63); 8 Stroke Victory over Erik Van Rooyen
2024: Taylor Pendrith -23 (64-67-63-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Ben Kohles
2023: Jason Day - 23 (64-69-66-62); 1 Stroke Victory over Eckroat & Si Woo Kim
2022: Kyounghoon Lee -26 (64-68-67-63); 1 Stroke Victory over Jordan Spieth
2021: Kyounghoon Lee -25 (65-65-67-66); 3 Stroke Victory over Sam Burns

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Champ’s Clubhouse Thoughts on Round 1

The opening round at the PGA Championship felt like exactly what you want from a major: enough birdies out there to reward elite golf, but every loose swing still carried consequences. The course presented as gettable on TV, but really only for players keeping it in the fairway and below the hole on these greens. Cooler weather and tougher hole locations, especially on the closing stretch, made scoring feel harder than the leaderboard may suggest. Coming into the week I thought the winning score would land somewhere in the 12-to-15-under range, but after Round 1—and with firmer conditions expected through the weekend—today may end up being one of the better scoring windows we see. The setup gave off more U.S. Open vibes than a typical PGA Championship, and honestly, I’m here for it.

Scottie looked relaxed and even laughing which is a scary sight on a Thursday. The patience, control, and lack of wasted shots will keep him on the first page which won’t surprise anyone. Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau will grab the headlines for the wrong reasons after slow starts, but way too many names feel well within striking distance on a board where we didn’t see much separation. In majors like this, surviving without your best stuff can matter just as much as going low early. One clean round can completely reshape this leaderboard, and I’m especially interested to see how Scottie attacks the golf course Friday as the clear early pace setter.

A few other names stood out throughout the day. Patrick Reed was the only player in the field without a bogey and finished first in Approach, which fits the type of gritty profile that tends to hang around in difficult conditions. Justin Thomas, who was one of my fades entering the week, looked in complete control early before a couple loose swings coming home cooled off the round. Statistically, Brooks Koepka quietly caught my attention the most: 3rd Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Approach, but 138th in Putting. That’s been the story most of the year for Brooks, but with scoring hovering around even par, an average putting week could immediately put the major champion back into contention.

As Round 1 showed, this won’t be a cakewalk over the next three days. The course is demanding enough to expose mistakes, but fair enough to reward elite execution. Feels like we’re headed toward a true major championship test the rest of the way, strap in.

Curious to see how many players can continue gaining consistently across the bag as conditions toughen through the weekend. The leaders after Friday will likely get the more difficult afternoon wave over the final two rounds, so sustaining those strokes gained numbers will be critical in identifying who’s still around Sunday. Scottie (first career lead/co-lead after Round 1 of a major), Xander, and Rickie were all fairly expected based on recent and season-long form, while Max, Blanchet, and Kaymer were the bigger surprises. Interested to see who can back it up Friday.

Based on how 2026 has gone for these players, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more of the same from Brooks and Chris Kirk heading into Friday. On the other side, I’d expect some bounce-back potential from Sepp Straka and Jason Day, while Patrick Cantlay remains one of the more intriguing names to monitor closely. The ball-striking profile still gives him upside, but there’s at least some hesitation backing him outright considering he landed as Sammy’s fade of the week. It’s also interesting to see Joaquin Niemann back on the first page of a major leaderboard and proving again he can hang with elite competition. That said, I’d lean more toward short-term exposure like Round 2 matchups rather than jumping into a live outright at the current number. Lastly, I did cash on my Spaun 3ball in Round 1 and may just go back for Round 2.

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Round 2 Tee Times

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Scorecard

Weather

Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Tyrrell Hatton (Champ) vs Rickie Fowler (Sammy)

Money leader: Champ leads +$2,084,002
Weeks Leader: Tied 9-9-1

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Champ’s Crew

Win
Ludvig Aberg +1600 (boosted to +1920) - 2.10u
Rickie Fowler +5000 - 0.80u
Tyrrell Hatton +6000 - 0.75u
Adam Scott +6000 - 0.75u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Rory McIlroy | Cameron Young

Sammy’s Selections

Win (all with 5 places at 1/4)* (0.8u each)
JJ Spaun +5500
Rickie Fowler +6000
Sam Burns +6600

*Bet365 Each Way Market

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Legend:
Odds - Betting Odds as of publication
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Rank: Based on Field Rank
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Aronimink Results: Finishes at Aronimink Golf Club
PGA Results: Finishes at the PGA Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Shadow Creek Golf Course, Medinah Country Club (No. 3) & Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

Bryson DeChambeau
Odds: +2200
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 3/WD/MC/1
Aronimink Results: 19 (67-70-64-67, 2018 BMW Champ)
PGA Results: 2/2/4/38/4/MC/MC/33
Comp Results: 48/50
Insights: Bryson enters Aronimink as one of the highest-upside plays in the field and one of the toughest to fully trust week-to-week. The major profile remains elite: a U.S. Open win, 3 Top 10s in his last 10 majors, and now four career Top 5s at the PGA Championship including back-to-back runner-ups the last two years. When the setup gets long, demanding, and driver-heavy, Bryson immediately becomes a factor. The recent form still shows the volatility though (3-WD-MC-1-1), with the Augusta missed cut and Mexico frustration balancing out the win equity. Stat profile remains dangerous with OTT gains in 4/4 and positive putting in 3/4, which is usually the formula when he contends. Aronimink should suit his aggressive style as well, and while the lone course result was only T19 in 2018, the scoring profile there showed plenty of comfort. Questions around LIV will continue from the outside, but majors are clearly still where Bryson locks in most. At +2200, you’re betting on ceiling over consistency—and few players in this field possess a ceiling this high if the driver and putter sync for four rounds. -C

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: N/A
Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/1/46/WD
Aronimink Results: 5 (62-69-63-68, 2018 BMW Champ)
PGA Results: 47/12/7/8/49/33/8/50/22/MC/17/1/8/1/64/3/3
Comp Results: 4/12/19/21
Insights: When he played this course in 2018, Rory had 4 rounds in the 60s with 2 of those rounds better than 64. He didn’t win, but the top-5 finish showed his upside here. We know what Rory’s floor can be when he’s not all there mentally, but given this is a major, you can count on Rory to be laser-focused this week — especially after being so bad around and on the greens in Charlotte. That’s always the concern with Rory — putting. However, Rory’s best putting performances come on Bentgrass greens, and he has so much creativity that helps him to get out of his wayward misses off-the-tee with relative ease. It’s a classic debate of Scottie vs. Rory this week at the top of the betting board, and I think the odds are fair on both. Pick your poison. -S

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (58), APP 200+ (111), PROX (142), APP AVG (71)
Rank: Top 75 exclude PROX; Top 25 exclude APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/2/2/22
Aronimink Results: DEBUT
PGA Results: 1/8/2/MC/8/4
Comp Results: 2/20/52
Insights: Scottie defends his title this week and once again the clear benchmark of consistency in elite fields. The recent form almost looks fake at this point—2-2-2-22 over his last four starts—and despite not winning in his last nine, he continues to gain across all four major SG categories every single week. OTT, APP, ARD, PUTT all 4/4 gains entering the week is exactly why the number sits at +500 even without a recent win. The surprise is seeing him outside the Top 25% in the field in several approach buckets statistically, but that speaks more to how absurd the expectations are with Scottie than actual weakness. PGA Championship history remains elite as well and skipping Quail feels intentional with eyes fully set on defending this title. Aronimink is a debut, but long demanding setups that require complete tee-to-green control are exactly where Scottie thrives. The question this week isn’t whether the game is there—it clearly is—it’s whether he finally converts another close call into a win and removes the string of runner-up finishes from the form line. -C

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Field List

Patio Preview

Aronimink Golf Club
Newtown Square, Pennsylvania

• 108th edition of the PGA Championship and just the 2nd time this course is hosting the event

  • First was in 1962 when Gary Player won

  • Last time PGA Tour played here was in 2018 at the BMW Championship

• Original design by Donal Ross about 100 years ago

• Restored to original vision in 2016-17 by Gil Hanse

• Par 70, ~7,400 yards

• Greens: Bentgrass; 8,200+ sq. ft.

  • Large greens with movement and different landing zones/quadrants

    • Have to hit specific areas of the green to score, not just the green itself

  • 12.5-13 on Stimpmeter

  • Lag/approach putting will be important

• 170+ bunkers

• Long fescue rough at about 4"

  • Will be penal - emphasize ACC and GIR

• Demands a complete game and tests every club in the bag

• Doglegs and hazards designed to force players to strategize tee shots rather than overpower with distance — we will see if it holds up to new technology

  • Distance will come into play, but accuracy and precision off the tee will be required to set players up for ideal second shots into tricky greens

  • In 2018 at BMW, driver usage was under 70%

• Only 2 Par 5s

• 12 difficult Par 4s

  • 1 under 400 yards

  • 5 400-450 yards

  • 5 450-500 yards

  • 1 500+ yards

• 3 of the 4 Par 3s are 220+ yards

  • Despite that, 2.99 scoring average in 2018 with a 15.6% birdie rate

• Front 9 is the easier of the 2 sides

• Average approach distance in 2018: 160.2 yards. Proximity buckets from that year:

  • 50-125 yards: ~27%

  • 125-150 yards: ~19%

  • 150-175 yards: ~17%

  • 175-200 yards: ~10%

  • 200+ yards: ~26.5%

Recent PGA Championship History

2025: Scottie Scheffler -11 (69-68-65-71); 5 Stroke Victory over 3 Players
2024: Xander Schauffele -21 (62-68-68-65); 1 Stroke Victory over Bryson Dechambeau
2023: Brooks Koepka -9 (72-66-66-67); 2 Stroke Victory over Hovland & Scheffler
2022: Justin Thomas -5 (67-67-74-67); Playoff Victory over Will Zalatoris
2021: Phil Mickelson -6 (70-69-70-73); 2 Stroke Victory over Koepka & Oosthuizen
2020: Collin Morikawa -13 (69-69-65-64); 2 Stroke Victory over Casey & D Johnson
2019: Brooks Koepka -8 (63-65-70-74); 2 Stroke Victory over Dustin Johnson

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bent)
Total Driving

Tier 2

Distance from Edge of Fairway
Greens in Regulation
Overall Proximity
Scrambling (Bent)
Around-the-Green Proximity
Sand Saves
Three-putt Avoidance (Bent)
Approach Putting (Bent)

Tier 3

Approach: 100-150
Approach: 200+ yards
SG: Par 3 226+ yards
SG: Par 4 401-450 yards
SG: Par 4 451-500 yards

Champ’s Course Comps

Shadow Creek Golf Course
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)

PGA Championship Trends

Odds
0-25: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2019
26-50: 2020
51-100:
101+: 2021

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 7/7 (100%) within 6 shots (2/7 led)
R2: 6/7 (86%) within 3 shots (3/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 2 shots (5/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) made the cut in their last start
6/7 (86%) with a Top 20 finish in their last start
6/7 (86%) with at least 2 Top 20s in their last 4 starts
6/7 (86%) made the cut at The Masters Tournament
5/7 (71%) with a Top 5 finish in their last start
5/7 (71%) with 0 missed cuts in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with at least 2 Top 10s in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with a WIN or 2nd in their last 4 starts
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish at The Masters Tournament
3/7 (43%) with at least 2 Top 5s in their last 4 starts
3/7 (43%) with a Top 5 at The Masters Tournament
2/7 (29%) with a WIN or 2nd in their last start

Winner’s PGA Championship History
6/7 (86%) with at least 5 prior appearances
6/7 (86%) with a Top 10 finish in a prior appearance
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish within 4 appearances of their WIN
5/7 (71%) with a Top 2 finish in a prior appearance
3/7 (43%) with a Top 20 finsih in the appearance prior to their WIN
1/7 (14%) WON as a Debutant
1/7 (14%) went Back-to-Back as PGA Champion

First Round Leader Group Splits
AM: 71% (2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019)
PM: 29% (2023, 2022)
*results can include instances where FRL from both Tee Groups, both get credited with a win.

Early Models

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