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Final Models

WWT Champ Top 10

Ben Kohles
Zach Bauchou
Jackson Suber
Keith Mitchell
Zecheng Dou
Jordan Smith
Kevin Yu
Ryan Gerard
Seamus Power
Neal Shipley

Bets

Win
Jordan Smith +3000 - 1.40u
Ben Kohles +3000 - 1.35u
Jackson Suber +3000 - 1.35u
Max Greyserman +5000 - 0.85u

Hat Tip
Ben James | Ben Griffin | Ryan Gerard

First Round Leader
Kristoffer Ventura +4000 - 0.30u
Jordan Smith +5000 - 0.25u

First Round 3-Balls - 1.50u each
Jordan Smith +140 > Austin Eckroat | John Parry
Ben Griffin +140 > Jackson Koivun | Pierceson Coody

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Tony Finau

DFS Chalk

Ben Griffin
Ben Kohles
Jackson Suber
Kris Ventura

DFS Pivots

Jordan Smith
Max Greyserman
Kevin Roy
Marco Penge

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of Yesterday at 4:30 PM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
WWT Results: Finishes at World Wide Techology Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Plantation Course at Kapalua, Vidanta Vallarta & Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course)

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Ryan Gerard
Odds: +1200
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (108), ARD (135), ARD/SCR AVG (111), BOB 175200 (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, APP, APP 150175, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 4/14/27/30
WWT Results: 14/MC (3 of 6 Rounds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 17/33/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard arrives in Cabo as the odds-on favorite with plenty of reasons to like his chances. He ranks inside the Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, Birdie or Better, BOB from 150–175 and Par-4 Scoring, while gaining both OTT and APP in each of his last three measured starts. The recent results back it up, too, with six Top 10s and three Top 5s over his last 15 starts, including a runner-up at the Memorial. Still, 12th in my overall model at +1200 doesn’t exactly scream value. The short game remains a concern, ranking 73rd of 92 around the green, while the putter has been his weakest link despite a strong season overall. Gerard finished T14 here in 2024, recovering from a slow opening round with three straight rounds in the 60s, but he was 112/1 that week. Quite the difference this time around. He hasn’t played since Japan nearly a month ago, and while the rest may be beneficial, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another sluggish start. There’s no questioning the talent or ball-striking consistency, but at this price I’m happy to wait and see. If he starts slowly, perhaps we can get involved closer to 30/1 rather than paying 12/1 before a ball is struck. Hat Tip for now, with an eye on the live market.

Ben James
Odds: +1800
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/MC/5/2
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4/16
Insights: I called for a bounce-back after Bermuda in last week’s Deep Dive, and Ben James delivered, although it certainly didn’t start that way. An opening 72 put him behind the eight ball before closing 64-68-65 to backdoor a Top 20, leaving us wondering what could have been without Thursday’s struggles. The driver was elite, producing his best OTT performance of 2026, while the irons returned to positive territory after Bermuda. The short game remains worth monitoring, losing around the green for the third time in five starts, but outside of that opening round, James looked every bit the player we’ve been backing. His T4 at Corales earlier this year adds another checkmark, and the Paspalum surfaces, generous fairways and birdie opportunities at El Cardonal should suit him beautifully. Even without official season rankings, his underlying numbers suggest one of the strongest all-around profiles in this field, particularly in GIR, scoring and ball striking. At +1800, we’re paying a premium for a player still chasing his first PGA TOUR victory, but I’m willing to do it. I expected James to contend last week, and after watching those final 54 holes, I’m even more convinced he can be a factor in Cabo. Outright consideration once again, but haven’t made the click just yet.

Ben Kohles
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude DD (151), OTT/DD AVG (96), ARD (66), PUTT (58), BOB 175200 (64)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude DD
Top 25% Rank: All exclude DD, OTT/DD AVG, ARD, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 17/17/13/15
WWT Results: 63 (69-69-69-72, 2025)
Comp Results: 25/28/42/59/MC/WD
Insights: Ben Kohles checks just about every box we’re looking for at El Cardonal, entering the week 1st overall in my model and ranking Top 5 in this field across a ridiculous number of categories, including Tee-to-Green, Approach, GIR, Proximity, Birdie or Better, Bogey Avoidance and scoring on all three par types. The one glaring weakness is distance, ranking 82nd of 93 players, but everything else is pure gold. He’s made 11 straight PGA TOUR cuts and 16 straight overall, with four consecutive finishes of T17 or better. His last start at Bermuda featured his best OTT performance of the season, although he lost strokes putting for just the second time in his last 10 measured events. There’s also a win at the BMW Charity Pro-Am on the Korn Ferry Tour back in June, giving him five career victories on that circuit. Course history isn’t overly convincing after a T63 here last year despite three opening rounds of 69, but a Top 25 at Vidanta and positive OTT and putting performances in two of three starts there offer some encouragement. Sure, the lack of distance deserves consideration on a 7,452-yard layout, but I’m not letting one weakness overshadow this much statistical strength and consistency. At +3500, Kohles is a model pick that has my eye with heavy interest.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Ben Griffin, Max Greyserman, Marco Penge,
Kevin Roy, Jordan Smith, Jackson Suber and Kris Ventura!

Ben Griffin
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 4/44/42/MC
WWT Results: 1/24/23/59 (11 of 16 Rounds in 60s; Low: 63 twice)
Comp Results: 4/4/14/MC
Insights: Ben Griffin nearly made us regret last week’s Fade of the Week, flirting with the first-round lead before finishing T4 at Vidanta. The opening charge came largely from gaining over four strokes putting while losing on Approach, and although the irons eventually showed some life, the performance still felt a little rusty after the layoff. Four rounds in the 60s and -19 certainly aren’t anything to dismiss, though, especially with Griffin now returning to defend his title at El Cardonal. He knows how to win here, entering the weekend three back last year and Sunday two behind before firing a closing 63 to finish at -29 and two clear of the field. The course and comp history are difficult to ignore, with four straight made cuts here, 11 of 16 rounds in the 60s, and T4 finishes at Vidanta in consecutive years. Add five Top 10s over his last 15 starts and there’s plenty to like, even if the current statistical profile isn’t screaming +1400. The putter has gained in just one of his last four measured starts, and the longer-approach numbers remain concerning, but Griffin has repeatedly shown he can follow strong finishes with another big performance. After fading him last week, I’m expecting a legitimate title defense and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in contention again Sunday. Still a Hat Tip at +1400, but I’ll be looking for exposure through Thursday markets or a tournament matchup rather than paying the outright price.

Max Greyserman
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, GIR, APP 150175
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: DD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 1/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 11/WD/61/MC
WWT Results: 62/4 (6 of 8 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 11/24/40/WD
Insights: Greyserman nearly made me regret talking myself out of him last week after the Bermuda withdrawal, bouncing back with a T11 at Vidanta and gaining nearly across the bag. The putter delivered his fourth-best performance of 2026, while the irons produced a Top 5 showing on the season, making that performance even more encouraging with Vidanta serving as one of our strongest comps this week. Greyserman also has some unfinished business at El Cardonal, finishing T4 in 2024 before slipping to T62 last year. He opened his course career with six straight rounds in the 60s, including a low of 64, before that streak ended over the weekend last year. The season-long numbers and recent form don’t tell the entire story, especially with Approach and GIR outside the Top 125, but he still ranks Top 20 in this field in Driving Distance, Putting, Birdie or Better and BOB from 175–200. The putter and driver are going to be critical, and while he’s still searching for his first Top 5 of 2026, two Top 10s and last week’s performance suggest there’s more upside than the recent results indicate. Take a look back at 2025 and it’s not difficult to envision Greyserman finding himself in contention again. I’m still looking for a little redemption from that Detroit playoff defeat, and a 45/1 outright ticket has a pretty nice ring to it.

Marco Penge
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP, APP 150175, PUTT, BA
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 150175, PUTT, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 175200, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 40/20/68/10
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 40
Insights: Marco has the kind of power that should translate beautifully to El Cardonal, ranking Top 10 in this field in Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance and our combined OTT/DD metric. The driver has gained in three of his last four measured starts, and with generous fairways and plenty of scoring opportunities, there’s little reason to believe distance won’t be a weapon this week. Still, the rest of the profile leaves me wanting more. He’s gained on Approach just once in his last four measured starts and ranks 86th of 93 players putting, a dangerous combination when winning likely requires something approaching 25 under par. Last week at Vidanta, he entered the weekend inside the Top 10 before a Saturday 73 knocked him off the pace, with above-average driving and short-game numbers unable to overcome another poor putting performance. We’ve seen the upside, including four rounds in the 60s at Biltmore with a Saturday 64, but sustaining that level for four days remains the question. Making his El Cardonal debut, last week’s performance gives us a reasonable projection, although I think his recent results say more about his ability to compete than an overwhelming statistical fit. I like Penge for short-term exposure in the three-ball markets, but at +3500, there are stronger outright cases for my money.

Kevin Roy
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP (112), APP 150175 (124), APP 175200 (129), BOB 150175 (165)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, BOB 150175
Top 25% Rank: TG, PROX, BS, ARD, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 0/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: MC/64/13/32
WWT Results: MC/MC (1 of 4 Rounds in 60s; Low: 69)
Comp Results: 17/18/31/50/62/MC
Insights: I’ll be the first to admit Kevin Roy disappointed me last week at Vidanta. After back-to-back Top 20s in his previous two trips, a missed cut certainly wasn’t what I had in mind, but so is golf. The encouraging part was his best Approach performance of 2026, unfortunately paired with his worst putting performance of the season. That gives me some hope for a bounce-back if the putter simply returns to normal. Roy ranks 27th overall in my model, with Top 20 field rankings in Par-5 Scoring and several recent-form metrics, while his season-long Tee-to-Green, Proximity and Ball-Striking numbers remain encouraging. The concern is that the irons have been inconsistent from key approach distances, and he’s now missed the cut in both appearances at El Cardonal, managing just one round in the 60s. I’m expecting some positive regression this week, and a Top 30 feels like a reasonable outcome if the putter cooperates. At 70/1, last week’s scars are still a little too fresh, and the course history doesn’t exactly help heal the wounds. There’s enough upside to keep Roy on the radar, just not enough conviction to go back to the well at any price.

Jordan Smith
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (124), ARD/SCR AVG (11), PUTT (130)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 16/4/26/21
WWT Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 16
Insights: Jordan Smith came up three shots shy of a Top 10 last week at Vidanta, although the T16 felt more like someone left the back door open than a player who seriously threatened the leaderboard. After failing to break 70 through three rounds, a closing 64 finally gave us something to get excited about, helped by his only positive putting performance of the week. Overall, he gained across the bag except on the greens, doing his best work Off-the-Tee. The statistical profile remains impressive, ranking 8th overall in my model and Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, OTT, GIR, Ball Striking, Par-4 Scoring and our combined OTT/DD metric. The putter remains the obvious concern, sitting outside the Top 100 on the season, but there’s enough quality elsewhere to believe another strong finish is coming. Making his El Cardonal debut, last week’s T16 at our key Vidanta comp gives us something to work with, although we’re certainly not holding a full deck of course evidence. Still, that Sunday performance has me thinking we need to go back to the well one more time. The two-time DP World Tour winner continues to intrigue me, and at +4000, I could make a case for Smith over someone like Jackson Suber. Fortunately, that’s a Wednesday decision rather than a Tuesday one.

Jackson Suber
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (87), OTT/DD AVG (78), PUTT (132)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 34/41/40/15
WWT Results: 11 (71-65-67-63, 2025)
Comp Results: 34/67/MC
Insights: Suber has been on our radar for quite some time, and this might finally be the week we go back to the well. He ranks 3rd overall in my model and 2nd in season-long field rankings, sitting Top 5 in Tee-to-Green, Approach, GIR, Proximity, Bogey Avoidance and Par-3 Scoring. The irons continue to be his calling card, gaining on Approach in all four rounds last week at Vidanta, while the putter showed some encouraging signs before giving strokes back on Sunday. Unfortunately, that final round also knocked him out of the Top 20 after entering the weekend T11, another example of Suber struggling to put four complete rounds together. The driver has become a concern, losing strokes over the final three rounds last week, and his around-the-green play isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either. Still, there’s plenty to like about his return to El Cardonal. He finished T11 here last year despite opening with a 71, closing 65-67-63 with the low round of the day Sunday and a back-nine 28. That performance came at 120/1, and while we’re paying considerably more this time, the statistical profile is stronger than most of this field. Five Top 20s, three Top 5s and 13 made cuts over his last 15 starts suggest the consistency is there, even if the breakthrough victory remains elusive. His strong showing at the wide-open TPC Craig Ranch only adds to the appeal. At +4000, I think there’s enough to take another shot, although nothing crazy. Placements offer a safer route, and Suber gets First Round Leader interest as well. Check back Wednesday to see how it all shakes out.

Kris Ventura
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, P3
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, PROX, BS, SCR, BA, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 1/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 2/34/41/32
WWT Results: 27/MC/MC (3 of 4 Rounds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 2/15/25/31/52/MC
Insights: Kris Ventura nearly gave us a victory last week at Vidanta, finishing runner-up after firing the low round of the day Sunday with a closing 63. Four rounds in the 60s and a T2 finish certainly caught my attention, especially with El Cardonal next on the schedule. The statistical fit is impressive, ranking Top 10 in this field in Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, GIR, Proximity, Ball Striking, Bogey Avoidance and both Par-4 and Par-5 Scoring. Last week also featured Top 5 performances of his 2026 season in driving, approach and around-the-green play, suggesting this was much more than a hot putter carrying him up the leaderboard. The comp results support the case, too, with a runner-up at Vidanta and a Top 20 at Corales earlier this year. That success hasn’t fully translated to this event, although Ventura made significant strides last year with a T27 after missing the cut in his previous two appearances. More importantly, he opened with a 64, sitting second after Thursday and just three shots off the First Round Leader at opening odds of 90/1. With four Top 20s, three Top 5s and nine made cuts over his last 10 starts, there’s plenty of consistency to go along with the scoring upside. The question is whether he can maintain that momentum after coming so close last week, but I’m willing to find out. Ventura could be one of my two First Round Leader selections this week, and I like him for DFS given the boom potential. I don’t hate an outright at +3500, but I’d pair it with placements rather than relying entirely on a victory.

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Course Preview

El Cardonal at Diamante
Los Cabos, Mexico

• Field: 120 Players

  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties

• Purse: $6,000,000 | FedExCup Points: 500

• Course Designer: Tiger Woods (2014)

• Longer Course: 7,452 Yards

  • Par 72 (36-36)

• Greens: Huge ~8,300 square feet average of Paspalum

  • 2025: 76% GIR

• Little to No Rough

  • 2025: 89% Driving Accuracy

• 1 Water Hazard

• Desert-resort style course with wide fairways, huge greens, bunkers & natural arroyos

  • Plenty of room to let Driver go

  • Aggressive lines can create shorter approaches & better angles

• 4 Par 5s

  • 3 measure 580+ Yards

  • Major scoring opportunities

• 4 Par 3s

  • 3 measure 189+ Yards

• Wind can become a factor on the exposed layout

• Go Low or Be Left Behind

• Model Angle: Target players who can take advantage of El Cardonal’s generous driving conditions through quality ball striking and aggressive scoring, with added emphasis on distance, par-5 performance and Paspalum putting.

• Betting Angle: Don’t be afraid to venture down the board, but make sure your longshots bring form with them. Each of the last 10 winners came into the week off a made cut.

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Recent Tournament History

2025: Ben Griffin -29 (65-65-66-63); 2 Stroke Victory over Ramey & Valimaki
2024: Austin Eckroat -24 (68-67-66-63); 1 Stroke Victory over Lower & Carson Young
2023: Erik Van Rooyen -27 (68-64-66-63); 2 Stroke Victory over Kuchar & Villegas
2022: Russell Henley -23 (63-63-65-70); 4 Stroke Victory over Brian Harman
2021: Viktor Hovland -23 (67-65-62-67); 4 Stroke Victory over Carlos Ortiz
2020: Viktor Hovland -20 (67-69-63-65); 1 Stroke Victory over Aaron Wise
*Tournament held at El Cardonal at Diamante since 2023

Click Here for A Deeper Look at Historical Results

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Birdie or Better Percentage

Tier 2

Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring
Driving Distance

Tier 3

Strokes Gained: Putting on Paspalum
Approaches from 150-200
Par 3 Scoring

Course Comps

Plantation Course at Kapalua
Vidanta Vallarta
Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course)

10 Years Worth of Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25 (30%) - 2025, 2021, 2020
26-50 (10%) - 2024
51-100 (40%) - 2023, 2022, 2018, 2017
101+ (20%) - 2019, 2016

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 6/10 (60%) within 2 shots (2/10 led)
R2: 7/10 (70%) within 3 shots (3/10 led)
R3: 10/10 (100%) within 2 shots (5/10 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
10/10 (100%) made the cut in their last start
8/10 (80%) 2 Top 30 in their last 4 starts
6/10 (60%) Top 25 in their last start
1/10 (10%) WON in their last 4 starts

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 60% (2025, 2024, 2022, 2021, 2019, 2017)
PM: 50% (2024, 2023, 2020, 2018, 2016)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Ben Kohles
Jackson Suber
Zach Bauchou
Keith Mitchell
Kevin Yu
Jordan Smith
Zecheng Dou
Seamus Power
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Kevin Roy

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Final Models

VidvantaWorld Mexico Open Top 10

Doug Ghim
Wyndham Clark
Mac Meissner
Kevin Yu
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Beau Hossler
Kevin Roy
Jordan Smith
Patrick Fishburn
William Mouw

Bets

Win
Johnny Keefer +2250 - 1.80u
Jordan Smith +5000 - 0.75u
Kevin Roy +5000 - 0.75u
Isaiah Salinda +1000 - 0.40u

Hat Tip
Wyndham Clark | Tom Kim | Ben James

Placements
Kevin Roy U36.5 (-120) - 2.50u
Jordan Smith Top 10 +450 - 0.75u

Tournament Head to Head includes Ties
Ben James -120 > Ben Griffin - 2.50u

First Round Leader
Johnny Keefer +4000 - 0.30u
Isaiah Salinda +6000 - 0.20u

First Round 3-Balls
Neal Shipley -105 > Pontus Nyhom | Davis Chatfield - 1.05u
Andrew Novak +150 > Joel Dahmen | Ben Griffin - 1u

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Ben Griffin

DFS Chalk

Johnny Keefer
Doug Ghim
Ben James
Neal Shipley

DFS Pivots

Kevin Roy
Zach Bauchou
Jordan Smith
Jackson Suber

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at BET365 as of 10:00 PM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
MEX Results: Finishes at the Mexico Open
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course), Grand Reserve Golf Club & Country Club of Jackson

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Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1100
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88), GIR (106), BS (96)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 63/21/1/5
MEX Results: 24/67 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 6/10/17/22/54/66/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Wyndham Clark is the favorite, and history says we shouldn't automatically run from that at Vidanta with the betting favorite winning two of the four editions. If Clark shows up with purpose, he's also one of the few players in this field where nobody should be surprised if he simply reminds everyone he's the best player here and wins. The recent strokes-gained profile certainly supports it—three straight gains OTT, APP and ARG with putting gains in two of three—and the season-long numbers put him inside the Top 25% across most of what we're measuring. He also finally got back into the winner's circle this season, something that matters when comparing him to several shorter-priced players still trying to prove they can close. But +1100 asks us to overlook a few things. His return at the Baycurrent was a disappointing T63, albeit his first start since the TOUR Championship and one with guaranteed money, and Vidanta hasn't exactly brought out his best. Clark finished T24 here in 2023 and T67 in his other appearance, losing OTT in both despite distance being one of his biggest weapons. He's still searching for his first Top 20 at the course. There is a T6 at Corales from 2023 worth respecting—he entered Sunday just one back before a final-round 70—but much of the remaining comp history is dated. I'm curious how much ownership the name attracts because the free custom model isn't necessarily screaming Clark either. He absolutely has the highest gear in this field, and if that gear shows up, +1100 could look perfectly justified by Sunday. I'm just not interested in paying to find out. First Hat Tip of the Week is inked in.

Ben James
Odds: +1800
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/5/2/3
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 4
Insights: I'm not jumping off the Ben James train after one ugly week in Bermuda. He lost across the bag outside of OTT and missed the cut, but that came three weeks removed from his T5 in Utah and followed finishes of 3-2-5 before the break. We're still talking about a player with only two missed cuts in 11 PGA TOUR starts and four Top 5s already, so one bad trip to Port Royal isn't enough to erase what we've seen. If anything, Vidanta looks like a much better bounce-back spot. James finished T4 at Corales back in April, fired the low round of the day Friday, sat two shots back entering both the weekend and Sunday and showed he could contend immediately on a longer resort-style setup. We don't have enough season data to populate the full model yet, but the recent SG profile tells us plenty—OTT gains in four straight measured starts, APP gains in three of four and positive putting in three of four before Bermuda. Add what he accomplished collegiately and it continues to feel like the first PGA TOUR win is a matter of when rather than if. The problem remains the price. Under 20/1 is still asking a lot for someone this early in his career, although +1800 doesn't feel nearly as offensive in this field as last week's +1100. I'm expecting the horse to get right back up this week and won't blame anyone for clicking 18, but personally I'm holding off on the outright and certainly not jumping ship after one bad start.

Tom Kim
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude DD (102), OTT/DD AVG (101), BOB 200+ (157)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP 200+, PUTT, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/28/12/5
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 11/15/33
Insights: Tom Kim is one where the spreadsheet only tells part of the story this week. The season-long numbers through the TOUR Championship are plenty respectable, and the recent strokes-gained profile was particularly encouraging with four straight gains both OTT and APP and putting gains in three of four. He closed the PGA TOUR season with finishes of 14-28-12-5, but those numbers don't include what might be the most important development—Kim went to the Asian Games, won gold and earned exemption from South Korea's mandatory military service. That's an enormous amount of pressure removed from a 24-year-old who already owns multiple PGA TOUR wins, and I'm curious whether we see an even freer version of Kim going forward. From a pure Vidanta standpoint, there are questions. He makes his debut, isn't particularly long off the tee, ranks poorly from 200+ in our BOB splits and doesn't have a ton of comp-course evidence, although a T11 at the 2025 Sanderson gives us something. But we've already established that distance isn't mandatory here if the rest of the game travels, and Kim's ball striking was clicking before the break. The bigger question for me is motivation. Is Mexico a chance to celebrate and enjoy finally having that weight lifted, or does he immediately get back to business and chase a second PGA TOUR win in seven starts? At +1600, I'm not interested in paying to find out. This is more mental handicap than statistical handicap for me, and in those situations I tend to Hat Tip and look toward 3-balls if I want to dip a toe.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Zach Bauchou, Doug Ghim, Johnny Keefer, Kevin Roy,
Neal Shipley, Jordan Smith and Jackson Suber!

Zach Bauchou
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (97), DD (114), OTT/DD AVG (106), APP 200+ (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 3/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 9/13/24/14
MEX Results: MC (72-75, 2023)
Comp Results: 9/21
Insights: Insights: Zach Bauchou might be one of the easier players to overlook at +4000, but the deeper I get into the profile, the more I want some exposure. He enters 4th in my overall field ranking and is Top 10 in this field from 175-200 yards, BOB, our combined BOB average and scoring on the Par 3s, Par 4s and Par 5s, while sitting 11th in Bogey Avoidance. Better yet, the recent strokes-gained profile is about as clean as we can ask for—three straight APP and ARG gains, with OTT and putting positive in two of three. We don't have ShotLink numbers from his latest T9 in Japan, but that continued an excellent run of 9-13-24-14 and gives him four straight Top 25s entering Mexico. Plenty will see the missed cut here in 2023 and move along, but I'm willing to trust the current player and our process more than two rounds of 72-75 from three years ago. A T9 at Corales earlier this season, albeit helped by a hot putter, gives us another piece of evidence at our favorite comp. The obvious concern is distance—114th on the season and one of the few areas where he falls outside the Top 75—but Brian Campbell showed us last year that overpowering Vidanta isn't the only path to contention. Bauchou's approach play, scoring profile and current form give him another route. We already cashed a placement with him two starts ago in Utah, and I'm willing to go back to the well. At minimum, he's firmly on my placement and 3-ball radar for the first two days, and 40/1 is enough to keep the outright conversation open as well.

Doug Ghim
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude DD (77), BOB 175200 (94)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude DD, APP, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/3, APP 2/3, ARD 3/3, PUTT 3/3
FORM: 17/2/17/19
MEX Results: 8/MC/33 (5 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 16/20/23/26/33/43/55/58/71/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Doug Ghim is going to test just how much we're willing to pay for consistency this week. The numbers are fantastic: 1st in this field in TG, GIR, Bogey Avoidance and Par-4 scoring, Top 3 in OTT, Ball Striking and BOB, and he ranks inside the Top 25% across nearly every key metric we're looking at. Recent form of 17-2-17-19 only adds fuel to the fire, and even the clubs that have historically caused the headaches are behaving. He's gained around the green and putting in three straight measured starts, with the putter becoming noticeably more consistent since June and providing the spike that nearly got him into the winner's circle with that runner-up. We've also seen OTT spikes in two of his last five and strong-to-elite approach performances in two of the last three. Vidanta isn't a bad fit either. Ghim finished T8 here in 2024 when the approach game produced his fourth-best performance of that season, and he fired a Friday 65 on debut that was the low round of the day. But here's where I get stuck: +1800 on Doug Ghim. He still lacks elite distance, the season-long approach and putting ranks aren't quite as impressive as the rest of the profile, he's lost strokes putting in each of his last three trips to Vidanta, owns zero Top 10s across our comp-course sample and, most importantly, we're still waiting for that first PGA TOUR win. If he finally gets it at 18/1, everyone gets to take the victory lap for identifying the obvious play. Just be prepared for the other side of that coin when we're staring at a T23 Sunday while Ben James or Tom Kim is the one actually threatening the trophy. Ghim absolutely deserves respect and may have one of the safest floors on the board, but the price has squeezed most of the fun out of it for me. Screams Hat Tip for the patrons in the back.

Johnny Keefer
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 33/10/7/MC
MEX Results: N/A
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Johnny Keefer is the first name I've circled this week where I'm already looking for reasons to add him to the card rather than reasons to stay away. We've written him up a few times during the Fall, and the profile continues to look like one that's getting closer to a breakthrough. He's Top 50 on TOUR this season in TG, OTT, Driving Distance, APP, GIR, both of our key long-iron buckets, proximity, Ball Striking, BOB and Par-3 scoring. That's about as complete of a Vidanta fit as we're going to find. The obvious concern has been the short game and putter, but even those numbers might be hiding some improvement—Keefer has gained putting in five of his last seven measured starts and around the green in five of seven as well. Now give one of the longer hitters in this field a wide-open Norman design where he can let the driver go, and I'm expecting an above-average performance OTT with the potential for an elite spike. Recent finishes of 7-10-33 before the missed cut only strengthen the case, while a runner-up in Panama and T4 in Colombia during his two-win Korn Ferry season at least give us some evidence that these types of climates and grasses aren't foreign to him. There's no Vidanta or direct comp history to fall back on, and +2200 certainly isn't handing us much of a discount for that uncertainty. But we've watched young talent win repeatedly this season, and Keefer has already shown he knows how to close with two victories last year. At some point you stop waiting for the perfect number and bet the profile. Check in tomorrow to see if he makes the final card.

Kevin Roy
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (117), APP 175200 (133), APP AVG (81)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: APP 200+, BS, ARD, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 64/13/32/24
MEX Results: 17/18 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 6/18/31/33/50/62/76/MC
Insights: Kevin Roy makes his second straight Deep Dive, and I might actually like the setup more this week than I did in Bermuda. He's now made nine straight cuts and enters 15th in my overall field ranking despite approach being the obvious weakness in the profile. That part has slipped since Asheville, particularly from 175-200 yards, but there's enough elsewhere to keep me interested. He's gained OTT in three straight measured starts, ranks Top 25% in this field from 200+, Ball Striking, BOB and Par-5 scoring, and sits Top 10 on TOUR this season in the latter. Vidanta should also allow him to lean a little more on his distance than Port Royal did, while the larger Paspalum greens could help neutralize a putter that has been a roller coaster. More importantly, we have actual evidence that Roy likes it here. He's finished T17 and T18 in two appearances with six of eight rounds in the 60s, sat T11 entering the weekend last year and gained elite numbers OTT. On debut, a Saturday 73 was the only thing separating him from an even better finish after closing with a 65. Add a T6 at Corales—our favorite comp—and the course-fit argument gets stronger. I also don't mind that he comes over from Bermuda without the stress of Monday golf or ever really being in contention. The equation feels pretty simple: if the approach play returns anywhere near its better 2026 levels, I think Roy is contending this week. At +5500, I'm willing to find out. Give me an outright sprinkle and a Top 20 as the more comfortable way to attack a player whose consistency, course history and Par-5 scoring all point in the right direction.

Neal Shipley
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, OTT/DD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 34/10/3/67
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Neal Shipley isn't normally a player who forces his way into the Deep Dives through the complete statistical profile, but credit where it's due—the recent golf has become difficult to ignore. He's made six straight cuts with two Top 10s during the Fall, including a T3 at Asheville where he played in the final group, and the obvious starting point is the driver. Shipley has gained OTT in 17 consecutive measured starts and ranks 1st in this field for the season, while the long irons give us another reason to believe Vidanta should fit with Top 10 ranks in both approach buckets we're emphasizing this week. The rest of the game has always been the question, but there are signs there too. The putter, which spent much of 2026 in the deep freeze, produced one of his better performances at the Biltmore and gained again last week at Port Royal. If he can simply stay around field average on and around these greens, the driver and long irons should keep him involved all four days. There's little course-comp evidence to lean on after a missed cut at Corales, although he does have some Paspalum experience from the Korn Ferry Tour with a T9 in Panama and T18 in Mexico last season. I also don't hate that Bermuda didn't suit him and he still kept the made-cut streak alive before heading to a much longer, more forgiving setup. The question becomes price. At +3500 I'm right on the brink; give me 40/1 and I'm much more inclined to take the outright shot, while anything around 30 starts pushing him toward Hat Tip territory. Either way, Shipley is firmly on the radar for placements, and a Top 10 feels like a nice way to get exposure if the outright number doesn't cooperate.

Jordan Smith
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (139), ARD/SCR AVG (112), PUTT (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, DD, OTT/DD AVG, APP, GIR, BS, BOB 175200, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 1/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 4/26/21/MC
MEX Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Jordan Smith has my attention this week, and unlike a few names around this price, +4000 feels like enough room to actually do something about it. The season-long profile fits Vidanta nicely with Top 20 ranks in OTT, GIR, Ball Striking and Par-4 scoring, while he's Top 10 in this field in TG, OTT, GIR and Ball Striking and sits 18th in my overall model. The recent strokes-gained numbers aren't nearly as pretty with OTT and APP gains in only one of his last three measured starts, but there's been plenty of travel mixed in between the FedExCup Playoffs, Irish Open, Wentworth, Utah and Japan. More importantly, we just saw the ceiling return at the Baycurrent. Smith opened with a 64 to sit one off the FRL, entered Sunday one back and ultimately finished T4 just three shots behind the winner. That gives us something to think about in Thursday markets as well. This will be his Vidanta debut and we don't have much comp-course history to lean on, but a T3 at the Valspar in windy conditions, T4 at the longer Baycurrent and T18 at The Open show me enough versatility to believe the lack of course reps isn't a deal breaker. Smith also owns two DP World Tour wins and has piled up enough Top 3s across tours since the last one in 2022 that another victory feels more like a matter of when than if. The short game and putter can certainly make things uncomfortable, but the driving and ball-striking profile gives him plenty of ways to attack this place. I've got a sneaky feeling about Smith this week, and at 40/1 I'm happy to take a stab. Add a placement for a little cushion, and don't be surprised if we find ourselves involved Thursday as well.

Jackson Suber
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (137)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 0/3
FORM: 41/40/15/22
MEX Results: MC (70-71, 2025)
Comp Results: 67/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Jackson Suber and the Clubhouse have been on and off again more times than I'd like to admit this season, and Vidanta isn't making the decision any easier. The statistical profile is ridiculous for this field: Top 5 in TG, APP and GIR, 1st from 200+, 1st in proximity, Top 10 in Ball Striking, Top 5 in both BOB and Par-3 scoring and Top 20 on both the Par 4s and Par 5s. In fact, putting is the only key metric where he falls outside the Top 75. We've seen these numbers translate before—a T6 at the John Deere and another Top 20 cash for us at the Biltmore—but we've also repeatedly watched the putter and Sunday execution keep the ceiling from becoming a win. That story hasn't changed lately. Suber has gained OTT and APP in three straight measured starts but hasn't gained putting in any of them, while finishes of 41-40-15-22 aren't exactly screaming breakthrough. His Vidanta debut ended Friday despite rounds of 70-71, and four ugly comp results offer little encouragement. That's what makes +4000 difficult. Give me 60/1 and I'd probably be talking myself back into another ride, but at 40 we're paying for the impressive season-long profile without enough evidence that he's ready to close the door. Still, I don't think this ends with another missed cut. The ball striking and long-iron numbers fit Vidanta too well, and Paspalum offers at least some hope that the putter cooperates. A finish around the Top 25 feels much more likely, with legitimate upside beyond that if he finds anything on the greens. Suber could be a sneaky DFS piece and I'll look toward placements before the outright market. We've gone back to this well plenty in 2026; at this price, I'm willing to make him prove it's finally time to dive all the way back in.

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Course Preview

Vidanta Vallarta
Vallarta, Mexico

• Field: 120 Players

  • Cut: Top 65 + Ties

• Greg Norman Design

• Long Course: 7,436 Yards

  • Par 71 (35-36)

• Entire Property: Platinum Paspalum

  • Fairways | Rough | Greens

• Large Landing Areas + Large Greens

  • Greens protected by deep bunkering

• 5 Par 3s

  • Average nearly 195 yards

• 4 Par 5s

  • Average nearly 600 yards

  • Major scoring opportunities

• Plenty of Mid/Long-Iron Approaches

  • Length puts an emphasis on 175+ yard approaches

• Water Hazards: 12

  • Water in play on 13 of 18 holes

• Back 9: Unique 3-3-3 Setup

  • 3 Par 3s | 3 Par 4s | 3 Par 5s

• Big Greens Don’t Guarantee Close Looks

  • Vidanta produced a 43’5” average proximity, third-longest on TOUR in the referenced season

• Go Low

  • All four champions reached at least -17

• Model Angle: Target players who can take advantage of Vidanta through quality driving or long-iron play, with added emphasis on par-3 performance and scoring upside.

• Betting Angle: Don't be afraid to venture down the board. Winners have ranged from favorite to triple digits, while 50/1+ longshots have cracked the Top 10 in all four editions at Vidanta.

  

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Mexico Open Tournament History

2025: Brian Campbell -20 (65-65-64-70); Playoff Victory over Aldrich Potgieter
2024: Jake Knapp -19 (67-64-63-71); 2 Stroke Victory over Sami Valimaki
2023: Tony Finau -24 (65-64-65-66); 3 Stroke Victory over Jon Rahm
2022: Jon Rahm -17 (64-66-68-69); 1 Stroke Victory over Finau, Kitayama & B Wu

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Full Stats Models & Early Top 10
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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Approaches from 175-200
Approaches from 200+
Par 3 Scoring

Tier 2

Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdie or Better Percentage
Par 5 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Putting - Paspalum

Tier 3

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Vidanta Vallarta
Approach Proximity

Course Comps

Puntacana Resort (Corales Golf Course)
Grand Reserve Golf Club
Country Club of Jackson

Historical Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25 (50%) - 2023, 2022
26-50 (25%) - 2024
101+ (25%) - 2025

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/4 (100%) within 4 shots (1/4 led)
R2: 4/4 (100%) within 4 shots (3/4 led)
R3: 4/4 (100%) within 1 shot (3/4 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
4/4 (100%) Top 30 in their last 4 starts
3/4/ (75%) made the cut in their last start
3/4/ (75%) Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
2/4 (50%) Top 5 in their last 4 starts
1/4 (25%) at least 1 missed cut in their last 2 starts
0/4 (0%) WON in their last 4 starts

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 75% (2025, 2023, 2022)
PM: 75% (2025, 2024, 2022)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Doug Ghim
Wyndham Clark
Zach Bauchou
Tom Kim
Mac Meissner
Kevin Yu
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Beau Hossler
Kevin Roy
Jordan Smith

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Final Models

Butterfield Bermuda Top 10

Ben Kohles
Kevin Roy
Davis Thompson
Lee Hodges
Kevin Yu
Rico Hoey
Zecheng Dou
Patrick Fishburn
Max McGreevy
Emiliano Grillo

Bets

Win
Rico Hoey +3000 - 1.20u
Ben Kohles +4000 - 0.95u
Zecheng Dou +5000 - 0.70u
Emiliano Grillo +6000 - 0.60u

Hat Tip
Ben James | Kevin Yu | Kevin Roy

First Round Leader - 0.25u each
Zecheng Dou +5000
Rico Hoey +5000

First Round 3-Balls
Ben Kohles +125 > John Parry | Camilo Villegas - 1.5u
Zac Blair -105 > Jonathan Byrd | Troy Merrit - 1.05u
Zecheng Dou +115 > Davis Chatfield | Matthew Anderson - 1u
Emiliano Grillo +140 > Adam Hadwin | David Skinns - 1.5u

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Denny McCarthy

DFS Chalk

Ben James
Ben Kohles
Kevin Yu
Kevin Roy

DFS Pivots

Rico Hoey
Emiliano Grillo
Zac Blair
Zecheng Dou

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:30 AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BERM Results: Finishes at the Bermuda Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course), Colonial Country Club, & Waialae Country Club

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Ben James
Odds: +1100
Stats: n/a
Top 75% Rank: n/a
Top 25% Rank: n/a
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 5/2/3/38
BERM Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: n/a
Insights: Ben James was one of the first names that came to mind as a potential winner if he showed up in Bermuda, and three straight Top 5s certainly haven't done anything to change that opinion. The underlying numbers have been every bit as impressive as the finishes. James has gained OTT in nine of his last 10 starts, with his three best performances of that stretch coming in his last three, while APP has gained in four straight with elite spikes in two of the last three. Even the putter, often the easiest place for a young player to lose strokes, has now gained in eight consecutive starts. ARG remains the least trustworthy part of the profile with gains in only half of his last eight, but we're searching pretty hard for problems at this point. He arrives ranked 33rd Data Golf and has gone 3rd-2nd-5th over his last three, so there's little mystery why the books hung +1100. The problem is Port Royal history has repeatedly told us we don't need to pay for favorites, and James will be making his course debut with no real comp history to lean on. If he had a couple strong trips around this place, I might be tempted to ignore the price—or even find a creative parlay to juice it—but 11/1 is asking too much outright. Still, this might be the clearest Hat Tip we write all year.

Ben Kohles
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude BOB 175200 (88), BOB 200+ (97)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude TD, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 2/2, PUTT 2/2
FORM: 17/13/15/27
BERM Results: 61/57/39 (3 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 5/27/34/41/52/53/62/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Ben Kohles might be the truest test of model versus gut for me this week. Put him next to Ben James and there's an obvious difference in talent, performance and expectation, yet Kohles is sitting there at +3000 with one of the most complete statistical profiles in this field. He's Top 75 across every key metric and Top 25% in nearly everything outside Total Driving, ARG and a few of the birdie-distance buckets, while his last two measured starts produced gains across APP, ARG and putting. The results haven't been flashy, but finishes of 17-13-15-27 certainly aren't giving us a reason to run either. Port Royal is where the hesitation comes in. Three appearances have produced finishes of just 61-57-39 and only three rounds in the 60s, but buried inside those results are a 64 and 65—including the low round of the day with that Saturday 64 during his debut. Add a T5 at the RSM and there's enough evidence that this type of golf can suit him. Kohles is still chasing that first PGA TOUR win and we've seen enough close calls to know that backing him can get sweaty, although he did close the door on the Korn Ferry Tour just 14 starts ago. At 30/1, this feels a lot like some of our Doug Ghim decisions from weeks past: the numbers keep screaming bet while the price keeps screaming otherwise. I'm very close to making Kohles the first outright click of the week, but at minimum he's going into DFS, 3-balls and the FRL conversation. I think he gives us a sweat this week—the only question is how much we're willing to pay to join him.

Andrew Novak
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 125 exclude TD, BS, PUTT, BOB 175200, BA, P4
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, PROX, BS, PUTT, P4
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 17/7/MC/MC
BERM Results: 2/45/17/MC (10 of 14 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 7/11/12/26/35/40/54/73/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Novak has enough going for him that another run at Port Royal feels very much in play. The recent results have turned around with finishes of T7 and T17 following back-to-back missed cuts, and more importantly, the underlying game has come with them. He's gained OTT and APP in three of his last four, the putter has gained in back-to-back starts after five straight losses, and the short game has been remarkably consistent with gains in six of his last eight. The irons have been a little sporadic since a dip at the John Deere, but Novak just posted his fifth-best APP performance of 2026 at the Biltmore while gaining across the board outside of ARG. The comps certainly don't hurt either with a T7 at the RSM, T11 at Colonial and T12 at the Sony. Then there's Port Royal, where he's broken 70 in 10 of 14 rounds and nearly won this thing two years ago. Novak entered Sunday tied for the lead after a Saturday 62 before playing partner Rafael Campos beat him by three, and we've already seen this travel schedule work after he finished T16 in Japan the week before that runner-up. This time he arrives off a T17 at the Biltmore, so another Top 5 would hardly surprise me. My hesitation is simply the +2800 in a tournament that has consistently rewarded us for looking farther down the board. Novak checks enough boxes to deserve respect near the top, but won’t gather exposure from me this week.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Zac Blair, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Rico Hoey,
Kevin Roy, Davis Thompson, and Kevin Yu!

Zac Blair
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, BOB 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 1/2, APP 2/2, ARD 1/2, PUTT 1/2
FORM: 24/21/53/MC
BERM Results: 9/MC/57 (4 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 3/6/7/29/30/32/33/48/50/55/57/57/62/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Zac Blair has been a little boom-or-bust lately, but that's not necessarily a bad profile to bring to a tournament where we've already learned perfect form isn't required. His last 10 starts include finishes of 24-21-53-MC-MC-4-MC-50-13-8, giving us three Top 15s and a Top 5 mixed among plenty of forgettable weeks. The tricky part is that much of his recent work has come on the Korn Ferry Tour where we don't have the same strokes-gained data, and he's gained on the field in just two of his last seven measured PGA TOUR starts. That leaves some concern that the model is remembering Blair's 2026 regular season more than his current game. Port Royal gives me more reason to stick around. Blair finished T9 here last year after entering the weekend T7 and closing with a 68, and even his missed cut in 2024 deserves a closer look after rebounding from an opening 76 with a Friday 65. The comps check another box with a Top 10 at the RSM last year and a pair of Top 6s at the Sony, even if those Hawaii results came nearly a decade ago. Blair isn't going to win us over with the driver, but the APP, scrambling, bogey avoidance and par-3 profile fit plenty of what we're looking for this week. At +4000 I'd certainly prefer a little more room, but the recent reps and proof that he can reach the first page at Port Royal have me intrigued again. Placements and DFS are firmly in play, and I'm not completely dismissing the outright until we see where the rest of the card lands.

Emiliano Grillo
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TD, APP
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 46/MC/MC/31
BERM Results: 34 (66-72-70-71, 2021)
Comp Results: 1/3/7/8/16/18/19/21/22/24/33/42/47/47/55/63/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Grillo hasn't given us much in the results column lately, but there are enough signs underneath the hood to make +6000 pretty interesting this week. The short game has been ugly, particularly ARG and putting over his last two starts, but the irons have flashed elite upside twice in his last four. That includes his best APP performance of 2026 last week in Utah, gaining more than two weighted strokes per round and over 8.5 strokes across four rounds, while we also saw one of his better OTT performances of the season at the Wyndham. That hasn't translated to finishes with a T46 and two missed cuts over his last three, but at 60/1 I'm much more willing to buy the underlying spikes than I would be near the top of this board. Grillo has only played Port Royal once, back in 2021, but he opened with a 66 to sit T7 and just three off the lead, then remained inside the Top 15 through Saturday before a Sunday 71 dropped him to T34. The comps make the case even more intriguing. One of his two PGA TOUR wins came at Colonial, while he also owns a Top 10 at Waialae and several other strong finishes across our comp courses. I'm not ready for a complete buy with only one Bermuda appearance and a short game that could become an adventure around these greens, but the combination of Total Driving, potentially elite APP and a proven comp-course ceiling is awfully intriguing at 60/1. Grillo looks like a great DFS pivot, and I'll be digging deeper into the 3-ball and matchup markets before deciding whether that 60 is worth a small dip of the toe.

Lee Hodges
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (145), SCR (118), ARD/SCR AVG (132)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 0/3, PUTT 1/3
FORM: 33/13/72/MC
BERM Results: 61/71 (0 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 70 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/5/6/10/12/29/35/35/53/54/57/MC/MC
Insights: Lee Hodges is a tough one because there are pieces of the profile that make plenty of sense for Port Royal, but his history here is about as ugly as it gets. Hodges has played eight competitive rounds in Bermuda without breaking 70, finishing T61 and T71 in his two appearances, and he's still searching for his first Top 60 at the course. That's difficult to ignore at +4500, especially with a short game that continues to be the obvious weakness—he hasn't gained ARG in any of his last three measured starts and enters outside the Top 100 in both ARG and scrambling. The ball striking gives us something to work with, though. OTT has gained in three straight and APP in two of three, while the season-long profile puts him inside the Top 25% in most of our key categories outside of APP itself, 200+, short game, putting and P4 scoring. The comps are considerably more encouraging than Port Royal, with two Top 5s at the RSM and two Top 10s at the Sony, including a T6 earlier this year. We've also seen how high the ceiling can get when the putter cooperates—his best putting performance of 2026 came at the John Deere and produced his only Top 5 of the season. That's the problem: Hodges feels boom-or-bust, and two trips to Bermuda have been firmly on the bust side. The comp history gives me enough to consider placements or use him as a lower-owned DFS pivot, but until he proves he can actually score around Port Royal, I'm not particularly interested in finding out with an outright ticket.

Rico Hoey
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/39/25/15
BERM Results: 22/17 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 7/17/50/59/66/MC/MC
Insights: Ricooooo returns to Port Royal for the third straight year, and while finishes of T22 and T17 don't exactly jump off the page, a closer look gives us plenty to like. Both appearances started slowly, yet Hoey has still broken 70 in five of eight rounds here, including all four Friday and Saturday rounds, showing he has been able to figure this place out once settled in. The comp history adds to the case with a Top 10 at the RSM last year and T17 at Colonial this year, and most of the damage in those starts came on the greens while OTT and APP were generally above average. That's important because those are exactly the parts of his game trending right now. Hoey posted his second-best OTT performance of the season last week in Utah, his fourth-best APP performance two starts ago at the Biltmore and even flashed his fifth-best putting week of 2026 at the Wyndham three starts back. He's now made seven straight cuts with finishes of 10th, 39th, 25th and 15th over his last four. Do I trust the putter? Not a chance, and the short game could make for a few sweaty moments around these greens. But the combination of Total Driving, long-iron play and birdie-making upside fits what we're looking for, while +3000 feels much more playable than some of the other names around him. I'm willing to take a shot on Hoey this week, with another Top 20 firmly in play and enough upside to see him hanging around the Top 5 or 10 come Sunday.

Kevin Roy
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP (120), APP 175200 (134), APP AVG (81)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 2/3, ARD 1/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 13/32/24/19
BERM Results: 34/8/MC (5 of 10 Rds in 60s; Low: 64)
Comp Results: 13/45/46/46/74/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Roy feels like one of those players where the profile keeps pulling me in while the price and course history keep pushing me back. He enters Bermuda off four straight Top 32 finishes, including a solid 66-68 weekend at the Baycurrent, and the underlying game has been trending in the right direction. Before losing on APP in Utah, Roy had gained with the irons in four straight, while OTT has now been positive in nine consecutive starts. The putter remains the roller coaster it has been all year, although even there we’ve seen some improvement with gains in four of his last seven after losing in seven of the previous nine. Port Royal has produced a little bit of everything in three appearances. Roy finished 8th in 2023 behind an opening 64 and closing 65, but last year managed only one round in the 60s and followed a Friday 66 that put him inside the Top 20 with a Sunday 75 to fall back to T34. The comps don’t give us much more conviction, with no Top 10s and a T13 at the Sony earlier this year his best result. I like the Total Driving, birdie-making and long-iron profile for Port Royal, and this feels like a good time to be buying Roy’s game. I’m just not convinced +3000 is the way I want to do it. In a field where it’s tough to truly trust anyone—and at an event that has consistently rewarded going deeper down the board—I may be much more comfortable attacking Roy through placements or matchups while saving the outright bullets for bigger numbers.

Davis Thompson
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (127), ARD (108), PUTT (146)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 1/3, APP 2/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 0/3
FORM: 54/62/MC/14
BERM Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 17/23/25/35/53/54/57/60/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: DT is going to be an easy name to talk yourself into at +4000 if you're willing to lean on the season-long numbers, but I'm having a hard time getting there. The profile still looks plenty good on paper with Top 25% ranks in TG, Total Driving, APP, GIR, Ball Striking and Par-4 scoring, but much of that work was done before his game started sliding at the end of the regular season. Thompson hasn't finished better than T54 in three Fall starts, never threatened last week at the Baycurrent and has gained OTT in just one of his last three while failing to gain with the putter in any of them. This will also be his Port Royal debut, so we're left looking toward the comps for some encouragement and there isn't much. A T17 at Colonial is his only Top 20, with a pair of Top 25s at the RSM, but there's an awful lot of red in the strokes-gained columns across those comp starts—something that has become nightmare fuel throughout 2026. Some will see Davis Thompson sitting there at 40/1 in this field and happily take the chance, and I understand it. At his best he's certainly better than plenty of the names around him on this board. But right now that feels more like betting the name and numbers he produced months ago than the golfer arriving in Bermuda. With no Port Royal history and very little current form to grab onto, I'll let somebody else find out whether this is the week the old Thompson returns.

Kevin Yu
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (126), SCR (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/3, APP 3/3, ARD 2/3, PUTT 2/3
FORM: 59/32/24/4
BERM Results: MC/MC/30/3 (6 of 12 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 11/21/35/54/61/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: The Clubhouse loves YUUU, but the books aren't exactly giving us much room to show it this week. Yu comes in at just +2500 despite results heading the wrong direction over his last four starts, capped by a pretty pitiful showing at the Baycurrent last week with some of our bankroll along for the ride. I'm willing to mostly write that one off considering the underlying game had been plenty solid beforehand, with OTT and APP gains in each of his previous three starts, and the season-long profile still fits with Top 25% ranks in TG, Total Driving, GIR, Ball Striking and plenty of the birdie-making categories. Port Royal is where things get a little harder to swallow. Yu finished 3rd on debut in 2023 and broke 70 in five of his first seven rounds here, but he's since missed back-to-back cuts and has only broken 70 twice in his last seven trips around the course. The comps aren't screaming bet either, although an 11th at Sea Island in 2024 and Top 25 at the Sony at least give us something to work with, gaining OTT and putting in both despite losing on approach. Yu is a PGA TOUR winner and that win came during the Fall at Sanderson Farms, so winning this type of event certainly isn't foreign to him. Still, +2500 is a tough ask at a tournament where six of the last seven winners have come from 50/1 or deeper. Am I blinded by last week's disappointment or blinded by the odds? Maybe a little of both, but Tuesday feels like a Hat Tip. I'll gladly go back to the well in matchups or a full-tournament head-to-head, but at 25/1, someone else can take the outright ticket.

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Course Map

Course Preview

Port Royal Golf Course
Southampton, Bermuda

• Field: 120 Players (4 of the Top 50 OWGR)

• Cut: Top 65 and Ties

• Purse: $6,000,000, FedExCup Points: 500

• Course Designer: Robert Trent Jones Sr. (1970); Roger Rulewich (Renovation: 2009)

• Short Course — 6,828 Yards, Par 71 (36-35)

  • Shortest course played on TOUR last season

• Greens: Large, ~8,000 square feet average, Bermuda

  • 2025: Only 59.7% GIR

• Zoysia Rough — caution with fliers on approach shots

  • 2025: Only 52.7% Driving Accuracy

• 7 Holes with Water

• Coastal-resort style course with elevation changes, exposed conditions & large greens

  • Wind is the course’s biggest defense

  • Bombers and shorter hitters can compete here

  • No ShotLink Yet Again

• Model Angle: Target strong approach players who combine positional driving with plenty of birdie-making upside. Long-iron/par-3 performance and Bermuda putting matter, while perfect recent form isn't a prerequisite.

• Betting Angle: Don't be afraid to venture deep down the board. Six of seven Port Royal winners have opened at 50/1+, including each of the last two at triple-digit odds. Seamus Power in 2022 remains the only winner to come from inside 50/1.

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Bermuda Championship Tournament History

2025: Adam Schenk -12 (69-65-67-71); 1 Stroke Victory over Chandler Phillips
2024: Rafael Campos -19 (70-65-62-68); 3 Stroke Victory over Andrew Novak
2023: Camilo Villegas -24 (67-63-65-65); 2 Stroke Victory over Alex Noren
2022: Seamus Power -19 (65-65-65-70); 1 Stroke Victory over Thomas Detry
2021: Lucas Herbert -15 (70-65-65-69); 1 Stroke Victory over Danny Lee & Patrick Reed
2020: Brian Gay -15 (70-68-67-74); Playoff Victory over Wyndham Clark
2019: Brendan Todd -24 (68-63-67-62); 4 Stroke Victory over Harry Higgs

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Full Stats Models & Early Top 10
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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Total Driving
Birdie or Better Percentage

Tier 2

Approaches from 175-200
Par 3 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Putting - Bermuda
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green

Tier 3

Approaches from 200+
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Port Royal Golf Course
Par 4 Scoring

Course Comps

Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course)
Colonial Country Club
Waialae Country Club

Historical Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25 (14%) - 2022
51-100 (43%) - 2023, 2021, 2019
101+ (43%) - 2025, 2024, 2020

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 4/7 (57%) at least 5 shots behind (0/7 led)
R2: 5/7 (71%) at least 3 shots behind (1/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 2 shots (3/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
6/7 (86%) with at least a missed cut in their last 2 starts
5/7 (71%) with at least a Top 40 finish in their last 4 starts
4/7 (57%) made the cut in their last start
3/7 (43%) with at least a Top 25 finish in their last 4 starts
1/7 (14%) with at least a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
0/7 (0%) WON in their last 4 starts

First Round Leader Tee Splits
AM: 86% (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019)
PM: 43% (2024, 2022, 2021)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Ben Kohles
Kevin Yu
Lee Hodges
Kevin Roy
Davis Thompson
Zecheng Dou
Rico Hoey
Patrick Fishburn
Max McGreevy
Emiliano Grillo

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Final Models

BayCurrent Classic Top 10

Ben Kohles
Doug Ghim
Collin Morikawa
Kevin Yu
Zach Bauchou
Xander Schauffele
Keith Mitchell
Adam Scott
Mac Meissner
Ryo Hisatsune

Bets

Win
Collin Morikawa +1600 - 2.50u
Adam Scott +3000 - 1.35u
Kevin Yu +5000 - 0.80u

Hat Tip
Xander Schauffele | Wyndham Clark | Hideki Matsuyama

First Round Leader
Johnny Keefer +4000 - 0.25u
Kevin Yu +4000 - 0.25u

First Round 3-Balls
Michael Thorbjornsen +115 > Stephan Jaeger | Matt McCarty - 1.5u
Kevin Yu +160 > Ryan Gerard | Tony Finau - 1.35u

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Mac Meissner

DFS Chalk

Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Wyndham Clark
Doug Ghim

DFS Pivots

Adam Scott
Johnny Keefer
Kevin Yu
Jordan Smith

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:00 AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Baycurrent Results: Finishes at the Baycurrent Classic
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Conway Farms Golf Club, Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) & Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

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Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 100! exclude OTT (103), TD (104), OTT/TD AVG (104), GIR (106), BS (112), BOB 200+ (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 21/28/7/7
Baycurrent Results: 20/46/51/40/1/28/2
Comp Results: 1/2/7/40/46/47/51
Insights: Hideki always gets a little more interesting when we head to Japan and there is certainly enough here to make the case. He ranks 7th in the field Tee-to-Green with Top 25% ranks in APP and all three 150+ approach buckets, while gaining APP in 3 of his last 4 starts. Around-the-green remains elite and the history in Japan is hard to ignore with a win and runner-up at Narashino. The concern is some of the stats missing are ones we identified as important this week. He ranks outside the Top 100 in OTT, Total Driving, GIR and Ball Striking, with 200+ BOB all the way down at 128th. The driver had shown some life with gains at both the FedEx and BMW before losing again at East Lake, while the putter has now lost in 4 of his last 5 with the Wyndham the lone positive. Last year at Yokohama he went 72-68-69-67 to finish T20, but never really threatened, sitting 5, 10 and 8 shots back through the first three rounds before climbing the board Sunday. I felt much better about where the game was heading before East Lake and maybe we can throw that one out, but +1600 puts him alongside Morikawa and Clark and I need more at that number. Plenty of respect for Hideki and I won't be looking to fade him, but right now this screams more Hat Tip than outright bet.

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75! exclude APP 200+ (85), ARD (100), SCR (131), ARD/SCR AVG (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: All exclude GIR, APP 150175, APP 200+, PROX, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA, P3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 14/4/52/18
Baycurrent Results: 14/54/1/45/7/50/22
Comp Results: 1/7/22/45/54/68
Insights: Collin may be my favorite of the names at the top of the board this week. He ranks 3rd in this field Tee-to-Green, 5th APP, 8th from 175-200, 4th BOB and 3rd P5, while sitting inside the Top 25% in nearly everything we are looking for at Yokohama. Another custom model (image below) has him 1st overall using course history, OTT, APP, Asia results, BOB and par scoring, while he also enters 2nd in the field in birdies per round and as the 2nd-best bentgrass putter. The game hasn't been perfect—he lost APP at East Lake for the first time in six starts, ARG has lost in four of six and the driver hasn't consistently been elite—but the results keep coming. Since winning Pebble Beach 12 starts ago, Morikawa has six Top 10s and four Top 5s, including a 3rd at Travelers where he just missed the playoff. He was only T35 entering Sunday here last year before a 63 vaulted him to T14, and we already know the upside in Japan after his six-shot win at Narashino in 2023, where he opened 64 and closed 63. That combination of current form, scoring ceiling and Japan history has my attention. If market lets this drift toward 20/1, I'll have a hard time staying away but even at 16/1 there is interest. My favorite at the top of the board right now and no surprise if he's the one holding the trophy Sunday.

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1000
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (132), BOB 150175 (150), P3 (122)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB 150175, P3
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, BS, SCR, BOB 200+, BA, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/26/7/2
Baycurrent Results: 1/41/38/9/28/17/10
Comp Results: 4/5/9/10/12/12/20/28/38/41
Insights: X is the obvious benchmark this week, but +1000 makes him a difficult bet to get excited about. He ranks Top 5 in this field in Tee-to-Green, OTT, Total Driving, scoring and P5, has gained OTT and APP in four straight starts and remains the best bentgrass putter in the field. We already know the course fits after he went 71-63-67-64 to win here last year, and the layoff doesn't bother me much considering he arrived at Yokohama last year having not played since the BMW Championship and still got it done. The recent results are there too with seven Top 10s and three Top 5s since this win, including a runner-up and T7 in his last four starts. There is also plenty to like at our comps with multiple Top 5s at Innisbrook and two Top 10s at Narashino. The problem is what I want from a 10/1 favorite isn't quite as complete. He's Top 5 in plenty of categories that can get you into contention, but APP, BOB and P4 don't separate him from this field the same way, while ARG and putting have been inconsistent recently. He is a likely winner and absolutely could defend, but being first on the odds board requires a little more for me to actually bet it. Clear Hat Tip and someone I'll gladly look toward in DFS, but I'll search further down the board for my outright exposure. Great news for Xander and backors, my hat tips have crossed or nearly crossed the finish line in bunches this season.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Michael Brennan, Wyndham Clark, Doug Ghim,
Johnny Keefer, Adam Scott, Jordan Smith, and Kevin Yu!

Michael Brennan
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (161), SCR (146), ARD/SCR AVG (154), BA (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 13/10/42/1
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Michael Brennan continues to make a pretty compelling case with the driver, ranking 3rd in this field OTT, 14th Total Driving and 1st from 200+, while sitting inside the Top 25% in Ball Striking, BOB and P5. He returned from the layoff with a T13 in Utah after finishing Top 10 at the BMW in his previous start, and the driver hasn't missed a beat with gains in four straight and routinely reaching elite levels. The putter has been just as impressive with four straight gains, including spikes at the Rocket and his Wyndham win, while APP has gained in three of four. The concern continues to be around the greens, where he has gained just four times in 26 starts and enters on six straight losses. That matters a little more this week after the top three at Yokohama last year finished 6th, 1st and 11th in scrambling for the week. Brennan makes his debut here and the only real comp-course history we have is a missed cut at Innisbrook, so +3000 feels a little short for me to invest outright despite the win just three starts ago. Plenty of upside and a profile that can absolutely contend, but the short game and Bogey Avoidance concerns have me leaning more toward placements and matchups than asking him to win on debut.

Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (86), TD (83), OTT/TD AVG (85), GIR (103), BS (92)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP AVG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 21/1/5/MC
Baycurrent Results: 48/16/25/46
Comp Results: 5/16/25/37/46/60/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels may have one of the more interesting cases at the top of the board this week. He ranks 10th in this field Tee-to-Green and sits inside the Top 25% in APP, ARG, putting and BOB, while another field-rank model has him 3rd overall. He also enters 3rd in birdies per round and as the 3rd-best bentgrass putter, which gives him plenty of the scoring upside we are looking for at Yokohama. The profile isn't perfect with OTT, Total Driving, GIR and Ball Striking all sitting outside the Top 75, but the current version of Clark looks much different than the one that finished T48 here last year. He has gained OTT in six of his last eight, flashed elite APP at both the FedEx and BMW and the short game hasn't been costing him. When the putter has spiked, he has won three times in his last 10 starts, and even when it has been closer to field average he has continued to find the front page of leaderboards. There is some Japan history too, including a T16 in 2023 that looks better after opening slowly and closing 66-68-67, along with a T5 at Innisbrook. I expect plenty of people to gravitate toward the win equity at +1600 and I understand why, but with some of the driving and ball-striking stats we want this week sitting closer to the middle of the field, I'm leaning Hat Tip rather than joining them. I'll keep an eye on Wednesday's tee sheet though, because the right match-up price could get me involved.

Doug Ghim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP (66), APP 175200 (57), PUTT (78), BOB 175200 (89)
Top 75% Rank:
Top 25% Rank:
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 2/17/19/15
Baycurrent Results: 27/66
Comp Results: 27/27/40/57/66/67/MC
Insights: Dougggiee continues to make it difficult for me because the numbers keep screaming bet while the price keeps screaming otherwise. He's #1 in my model again this week, ranking 1st in the field Tee-to-Green, 5th OTT, 11th Total Driving, 3rd GIR, 4th Ball Striking, 8th BOB and 3rd P4, while entering 6th in birdies per round and 2nd in both Bogey Avoidance and P4 scoring. He also arrives with four straight Top 20s after finishing runner-up in Utah, where he entered Sunday one back in the final pairing and finished 5th TG, 1st OTT and 13th putting. The frustrating part was how he got there—APP went from +3.12 during the week to -2.72 on the weekend, while Saturday's +3.32 putting flipped to -1.35 Sunday. That's still the question with Ghim. He's made 11 of his last 13 cuts with eight Top 20s and three Top 10s, but last week tied his career-best finish and was only the third Top 5 of his career. The putter has quietly gained in six of eight and ARG in four straight, so maybe we're watching another player slowly turn the corner, but +2800 asks me to bet on a breakthrough that hasn't happened since his college days. He followed his 2024 Shriners runner-up with a T27 in Japan, and I don't expect him to disappear this week either. At 40/1 I'd probably be talking myself into it; under 30/1, I'll let someone else pay for the win equity.

Johnny Keefer
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (151), SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (145), PUTT (125), BA (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 10/7/MC/60
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: MC
Insights: Johnny Keefer makes his Yokohama debut with a profile that fits this place better than his #20 overall model rank suggests. He ranks 12th OTT, 19th Total Driving, 4th GIR and 5th Ball Striking, while sitting inside the Top 25% in TG, APP and 200+, giving us plenty of what we identified as important this week. He also comes in with back-to-back Top 10s and nearly gained across the board in both Fall starts. Last week in Utah he finished 6th Tee-to-Green, 9th OTT, 18th APP and 16th ARG, while the putter was the only thing holding him back despite a Saturday spike of more than 3.5 strokes gained. The recent ball striking is encouraging, but I do want to see the driver continue after losing OTT in four of his previous five starts, while the season-long ARG and putting numbers remain a concern at a course where scrambling mattered last year. This is his Yokohama debut and a missed cut at this year's Valspar is our only comp result, so there isn't much course history to lean on either. Still, we're talking about last year's Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year with two wins who is already 62nd OWGR and starting to find his footing on TOUR. +4000 is enough of a drop from the names above him to get my attention. I'll be looking at Keefer in matchups, and I don't hate a small outright sprinkle, preferably paired with an each-way or placement bet.

Adam Scott
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (116), PUTT (101), BOB 200+ (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/11/16/12
Baycurrent Results: 27/41/33
Comp Results: 16/28/28/30/33/35/41/57/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Adam Scott might be the sneaky veteran who gets overlooked this week. The 46-year-old has five straight Top 20s, including two Top 10s and a runner-up at Wentworth, while gaining OTT and APP in each of his last four starts. The ball striking has been particularly impressive over this stretch, reaching above-average to elite levels during the FedExCup Playoffs before carrying over to Europe. That fits what we're looking for at Yokohama, with Scott sitting inside the Top 25% in TG, APP and every 150+ approach bucket, and another field-rank model has him 13th overall. Last year he opened 68 to sit T4 before falling off the pace, but a closing 67 got him back to T27 and at least gives us some positive experience around the course. There are reasons to hesitate at +2800. We usually get a better number on Scott, he doesn't own a Top 10 across our comp courses and the putter remains the obvious variable. Still, I have a sneaky feeling one of the older statesmen hangs around this week, and if Scott simply gets a cooperative putter, the current ball striking is good enough to make it him. This feels a little boom-or-bust, which I actually like in a no-cut event. I don't know if I can pull the trigger outright at 28/1, but I absolutely want some exposure and think he could be the missing piece in a lower-owned DFS lineup.

Jordan Smith
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (138), ARD/SCR AVG (113), PUTT (119)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/21/MC/55
Baycurrent Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 3
Insights: Jordan Smith is one of the more interesting longshots on the board because the season-long ball-striking profile fits exactly what we've been looking for at Yokohama. He ranks 1st in this field in both Total Driving and Ball Striking, 7th GIR and 15th OTT, while sitting inside the Top 25% in TG as well. The concern is that some of those numbers haven't been nearly as sharp recently. OTT has cooled since the end of the FedExCup season and APP has drifted with it, while the season-long ARG and putting numbers both sit in the bottom quarter of this field. Last week showed the volatility perfectly. Smith opened with a 63 in Utah, helped by an albatross on 18, then followed it with an even-par Friday where he lost across the board. Saturday the ball striking remained off while the putter carried him, before finally gaining across the board Sunday. He makes his Yokohama debut, but his lone comp result certainly gets my attention—a 3rd at Innisbrook earlier this year, finishing just two shots back. That remains his last Top 10 some 18 starts later, which makes +6000 more intriguing than actionable for me outright. I like the course fit and think a Top 20 is firmly in play, but I'd rather use Smith for shorter-term exposure in matchups while mixing him into a couple DFS lineups.

Kevin Yu
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (125), SCR (115)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 32/24/4/31
Baycurrent Results: 20/16/59
Comp Results: 12/16/30/59/MC/MC
Insights: Kevin Yuuuuuuuu is starting to become one of those names we can't seem to get away from, and I'm not sure we should just yet. He ranks 1st in this field in birdies per round, 2nd BOB, 12th Ball Striking, 18th GIR and 23rd Total Driving, while gaining OTT in 13 of his last 14 starts and APP in nine of his last 10. The problem lately hasn't been finding low rounds, it's avoiding the one that takes him out of contention. He shot three rounds in the 60s last week in Utah, three of four in Asheville and all four at the Wyndham, including a 62 and multiple 64s during that stretch. We saw the same thing here last year when he opened 69-68 and was one shot outside the Top 10 before a Saturday 73 knocked him back, only to close with a 66 for T20. Clean up that one round and suddenly the ceiling gets pretty interesting. We cashed his U33.5 last week while the outright at 30/1 never really got there, but now we're getting +4500 despite the stronger field. He has gained OTT and APP in four straight, has seven made cuts in his last eight with three Top 20s, and already owns a Fall win from Sanderson in 2024. I'm willing to go back to the well at the bigger number with a small outright sprinkle, then look for another placement or matchup. And after Sunday's 64 in Utah, I'll be watching the FRL board too—if we get something around 50/1, Yu may find his way onto that card as well.

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Field List

Course Preview

Yokohama Country Club (East & West)
Yokohama, Japan

• Field: 72 Players, 72-Hole Stroke Play, No Cut

• Top 60 Available Players from FedExCup Standings

• 8 Japan Golf Tour Organization (JGTO) Players

• 4 Sponsor Exemptions

• Purse: $8,000,000 | FedExCup Points: 500

• Formerly: ZOZO Championship

• Par 71 | 7,322 Yards

• Composite Routing

  • 16 Holes from West Course

  • 2 Holes from East Course

• West Course remodeled by Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw (2016)

• Parkland-style course

  • Tree-lined corridors, elevation changes & undulation

  • Generous landing areas with strategic fairway bunkering

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Fairways: Korai Zoysia

• Rough: Noshiba Zoysia

• 2025 Course Stats

  • Scoring Average: -0.96 to Par

  • Driving Distance: 291.0 Yards

  • Driving Accuracy: 69.0% (+8.1% vs TOUR Avg.)

  • GIR: 65.0% (-1.4% vs TOUR Avg.)

• Fairways were relatively easy to find, but converting those positions into GIR proved more difficult

  • Places added emphasis on Approach, GIR, Proximity & Ball Striking

• Low-Round / Birdie-Making Upside Matters

  • Schauffele: 71-63-67-64 (-19)

  • Played final 54 holes at -19

  • Eventual Top 3 combined for multiple rounds of 65 or better

• No Cut = Plenty of Time to Recover

  • Schauffele was 4 shots back after R1 before winning

  • Michael Thorbjornsen was only -4 through 36 before finishing 3rd

  • Who can shoot 63–65 rather than who is most likely to shoot 68 every day?

• New for 2026: 18th green relocated toward the fairway with surrounding terrain regraded

• Model Angle: Target strong tee-to-green players who combine quality driving, ball striking and GIR with plenty of birdie-making upside. Elite putting and overall proximity aren't prerequisites.

• Betting Angle: Don’t be afraid to venture down the odds board. Xander won as the 10/1 favorite, but 9 of the top 14 finishers opened at 50/1+, including five at 60/1+. One year doesn’t make a trend, but Yokohama certainly rewarded looking beyond the obvious names.

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BayCurrent Classic Tournament History

2025: Xander Schauffele -19 (71-63-67-64); 1 Stroke Victory over Max Greyserman
2024: Nico Echavarria -20 (64-64-65-67); 1 Stroke Victory over Thomas & Greyserman
2023: Collin Morikawa -14 (64-73-66-63); 6 Shot Victory over Beau Hossler & Eric Cole
2022: Keegan Bradley -15 (66-65-66-68); 1 Shot Victory over Fowler & Putnam
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -15 (64-68-68-65); 5 Shot Victory over Steele & Tringale
2020: Patrick Cantlay -23 (67-65-68-65); 1 Shot Victory over Justin Thomas & Jon Rahm
2019: Tiger Woods -19 (64-64-66-67); 3 Shot Victory over Hideki Matsuyama
*2026 & 2025 played at Yokohama; the rest either Accordia Narashino (5x) or Sherwood (1x)

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock: Key Stats, Comp Courses, Full Stats Models & Early Top 10
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Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
Shots Gained: Approach
Birdie-or-Better Percentage

Tier 2

Green-in-Regulation
Ball Striking
Shots Gained: Approach 175-200
Total Driving

Tier 3

Shots Gained: Approach 200+
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring

Course Comps

Conway Farms Golf Course
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

BayCurrent Historical Tournament Trends

Odds
0-25: 2025, 2023, 2021
26-50: 2022, 2020, 2019
51-100:
101+: 2024

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 7/7 (100%) within 4 shots (2/7 led)
R2: 5/7 (71%) within 2 shots (3/7 led)
R3: 6/7 (86%) within 2 shots (4/7 led)

Winner’s Lead-In Form
7/7 (100%) with at least 1 Top 25 finish in their last 4 starts
6/7 (86%) with a Top 40 finish in their last start
5/7 (71%) with a Top 10 finish in their last 4 starts
0/7 (0%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts

First Round Leader Tee Splits
Groups 1-12: 71% (2025, 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019)
Groups 13-24: 57% (2025, 2024, 2021, 2019)
*results can include instances where FRL from both AM/PM and both get credited with a win.

Early Models

Early Top 10

Doug Ghim
Ben Kohles
Wyndham Clark
Collin Morikawa
Zach Bauchou
Keith Mitchell
Adam Scott
Jordan Smith
Rickie Fowler
Beau Hossler

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Final Models

Bank of Utah Champ Top 10

Doug Ghim
Jackson Suber
Davis Thompson
Zach Bauchou
Kevin Yu
Mac Meissner
Zecheng Dou
Beau Hossler
Jordan Smith
Sudarshan Yellamaraju

Bets

Win
Jackson Suber +3000 - 1.20u
Kevin Yu +3000 - 1.15u
Zach Bauchou +6000 - 0.55u

Hat Tip
Jackson Koivun | Ben James | Doug Ghim

Finishing Position
Zach Bauchou U20.5 +240 - 1.50u
Kevin Yu U33.5 (-120) - 2.50u

First Round Leader
Kevin Yu +4000 (boosted to +4400) - 0.35u
Zach Bauchou +6000 - 0.25u

First Round 3-Balls
Ben James +180 > Michael Brennan | Jackson Koivun - 1u
Zach Bauchou +150 > Erik Van Rooyen | Christiaan Bezuidemhout - 1.50u

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Matt McCarty

DFS Chalk

Jackson Koivun
Ben James
Michael Brennan
Doug Ghim

DFS Pivots

Kevin Yu
Zach Bauchou
Johnny Keefer
Jackson Suber

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 11:30AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
BOU Results: Finishes at the Bank of Utah Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: La Quinta Country Club, Golf Club of Houston & TPC Scottsdale

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Michael Brennan
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 0/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 10/42/1/15
BOU Results: 1 (67-65-64-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 48/56
Insights: Michael Brennan returns to Utah with a pretty obvious case to contend again. He won here by four last year, taking at least a share of the lead after Friday and never giving it back, and has since added another win at the Wyndham along with top-10 finishes at Colonial and the BMW Championship. The driver is elite—gaining OTT in 17 of his last 18 starts—the irons have gained in seven of nine, and the putter enters on five straight positive performances. Add four rounds of 67 or better here last year and it’s easy to understand why one custom model has him as the clear favorite. Still, +1600 screams Hat Tip to me. He’s only 17th in my model, hasn’t played in over a month, and the short game remains a glaring weakness with just four around-the-green gains in his last 25 starts. He overcame that here last year, but at one of the shortest prices on the board, I’d rather make him prove he can do it again than pay for the defending-champion narrative. Plenty of respect for Brennan this week, but I’ll look elsewhere for my outright exposure.

Ben James
Odds: +1800
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 2/3/38/MC
BOU Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Ben Jamessssssss is being priced like an established contender despite making just his 10th start of 2026, but I’m willing to buy the upside. He’s gained OTT in all but one start, on approach in all but two, and the putter has now gained in seven straight. That profile is starting to look less like a small-sample heater and more like who the 23-year-old is. Three top-5s and four top-20s in nine starts back it up, including consecutive top-3 finishes entering Utah. The latest came at the Biltmore, where James started Sunday seven shots back before firing a 61 to finish runner-up, just two behind Bridgeman. He’ll debut at Black Desert, but we’ve already seen this event reward young players without much experience, and James has the aggressive scoring profile to fit right in. +1800 is certainly paying a premium for potential, but unlike Brennan at the top of this board, I think the recent ball striking justifies it. He’s an obvious DFS target and after being borderline for me in Asheville, I’m leaning toward paying up for the outright this time.

Jackson Koivun
Odds: +1200
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 5/24/29/31
BOU Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: N/A
Insights: Koivun has quickly reached the point where +1200 doesn’t even feel outrageous—and that says plenty about what the 21-year-old has accomplished. He’s coming off an undefeated Presidents Cup appearance after finishing fifth at the Biltmore, and through just eight PGA Tour starts in 2026 already owns five top-25s, three top-10s, two top-5s and a win at the 3M Open. The underlying game supports it too, with OTT gains in seven of eight starts, approach gains in five straight, and DataGolf already ranking him 22nd in the world. The only real questions are price and potential fatigue after four days of Presidents Cup golf. He’s already collected eight wins across college, the PGA Tour and Presidents Cup play this year, so nobody should be surprised if he adds another in Utah. I just don’t need to be the one betting +1200 that it happens this week. Clear class of the field, obvious DFS consideration, and an easy Hat Tip for me rather than chasing the favorite.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Zach Bauchou, Doug Ghim, Johnny Keefer, Maverick McNealy,
Jackson Suber, Davis Thompson, and Kevin Yu!

Zach Bauchou
Odds: +7000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (97), TD (135), OTT/TD AVG (116), BS (90)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP AVG, SCR, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 24/14/MC/44
BOU Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 13/48
Insights: Zach Bauchou might be the best example this week of my model finding something the market hasn’t. He’s fifth overall in my rankings despite sitting around +7000, with a remarkably balanced profile that ranks top 20 in this field in Tee-to-Green, Approach, Birdie or Better, Bogey Avoidance and scoring on every par. He’s also quietly produced 10 top-25 finishes in 22 starts this season and enters off finishes of 24th and 14th, so there’s more consistency here than the price suggests. There isn’t one elite weapon carrying the profile, and I’ll need to see a little more from both the driver and irons to seriously consider him as a win candidate. But that’s also why we’re getting this number. We’ve seen the putter spike in three of his last five starts, and if that happens alongside his typically steady tee-to-green game, +7000 becomes interesting quickly. At minimum he’s a DFS play for me, but the model ranking has me interested in a small outright sprinkle, top-20 and potentially a 3-ball matchup. Check back tomorrow to see where Bauchou lands on the final card.

Doug Ghim
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (89), BOB 125150 (92), BOB 175200 (93)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 125150, PROX, APP AVG, BS, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 17/19/15/MC
BOU Results: 63/25 (3 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 12/21/49/49/59/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Ghimreaper being #1 in my model certainly got my attention. He ranks 1st in this field Tee-to-Green, GIR and par-4 scoring, 2nd in ball striking and Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Birdie or Better and 5th in proximity. The recent form backs it up with three straight top-20s, and he closed the Biltmore 71-68-66-62 while gaining across all four major categories for the first time since the John Deere. The irons have now gained in consecutive starts, the putter has done the same, and a week off hopefully allowed him to keep those good vibes going. But this also feels very Dougie. He’s lost significant strokes putting in both trips to Black Desert, has zero top-10s across a lengthy list of comp-course starts, and at +3000 we’re being asked to pay for more than another top-20 flirt. The #1 model ranking means I’ll have some exposure, but I need to see Ghim turn this consistency into a legitimate top-5 or win threat before getting aggressive. Placement and matchup markets remain the most appealing, with maybe a small outright sprinkle purely because the model refuses to let me ignore him.

Johnny Keefer
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 125150
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/MC/60/MC
BOU Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 27/41
Insights: Johnny rewarded anyone who stayed patient at the Biltmore, cashing top-10 tickets with a T7 for his fourth top-10 of 2026. The ball-striking profile continues to intrigue—he’s 12th in my model while ranking 3rd in GIR, 5th in ball striking and near the top of this field Tee-to-Green, OTT and Approach. He’s more distance than accuracy off the tee, but we’ve seen that formula work at Black Desert, and another strong approach week gives him plenty of upside in his tournament debut. The question is how much we’re willing to overlook the short game. Keefer sits near the bottom of this field around the greens, the putter remains inconsistent despite an elite performance at the Biltmore, and his recent SG report card has more red than I’d like for a +4000 outright. He’s also followed his previous three top-10s this season with finishes of MC-35-59. I’m not rushing to chase last week’s result, but the upside is too good to ignore completely. DFS makes plenty of sense, with some smaller placement or matchup exposure while keeping an eye on last year’s Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year. Dip a toe, no need to dive in.

Maverick McNealy
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 7/19/25/34
BOU Results: MC (71-72, 2025)
Comp Results: 6/9/13/17/37/MC/MC/WD
Insights: Mav is second choice in the market but only 18th in my model, and I’m inclined to trust that disagreement. The recent results are certainly solid—7th, 19th, 25th and 34th—and he’s gained putting in five straight with elite performances in his last two. He’s also one of the better short-game players in this field, ranking top five putting, top 20 around the green and top 10 in par-5 scoring. Add a strong comp-course résumé and there’s plenty to like on the surface. The problem is +2200 requires more than a hot putter and consistent top-25 finishes. His approach play has been much more average, the 175–200 yard numbers are a major weakness, and he missed the cut here last year without breaking 70. After another lengthy layoff, I’m hesitant to back a player who has recently relied so heavily on the flat stick at a course where strong driving and approach play are needed to keep pace. Sneaky DFS option, but among the favorites McNealy has more fade potential than outright appeal for me. Check back tomorrow to see if he receives the infamous Fade of the Week.

Jackson Suber
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 75!! exclude TD (80), APP 150175 (92), PUTT (128), BOB 150175 (111)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 15/22/50/MC
BOU Results: 15 (66-67-70-68, 2025)
Comp Results: MC/MC
Insights: Jackson Suber treated us well with a +200 top-20 cash at the Biltmore, and I’m willing to go back to the well. He’s fourth in my model this week with top-20 marks in Approach, GIR, Birdie or Better and par-5 scoring, while gaining on approach and around the green in four straight starts. The T15 at Biltmore could’ve easily been better—he ranked 7th Tee-to-Green and 6th on Approach Friday but just 116th putting, with missed opportunities on 17 and 18 also costing him a chance at the opening-round lead. That putter is clearly the concern, ranking 128th in this field, but Black Desert might be the place for it to wake up. Suber finished T15 here last year after sitting T3 through 36 holes, gaining nearly four strokes putting Thursday and another two-plus Friday. If we combine anything close to that with his current ball striking, he has a legitimate chance to contend. The outright price has been slashed to +3500 and the top-20 is down to +150, but I’m still interested in Suber across multiple markets this week.

Davis Thompson
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (106), PUTT (134), BOB 150175 (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 125150, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: MC/14/8/7
BOU Results: MC (73-73, 2025)
Comp Results: 2/15/21/36/51/64/MC/MC
Insights: DT is third in my model and arguably one of the cleanest ball-striking fits in the field, ranking 6th on Approach, 12th in GIR and top 20 Tee-to-Green with strength throughout the key proximity ranges. He’s also gained on approach in four straight starts and owns a runner-up at the AMEX, so there are plenty of reasons to believe this desert setup should eventually suit him. But the gaps are getting harder for me to overlook. Thompson ranks 134th putting and outside the top 100 around the green, while his debut here last year ended with consecutive 73s and a missed cut after major losses OTT and around the greens. The ball striking is good enough that I’ll probably feel some FOMO if he fires a low one Thursday, but unlike Suber, we haven’t seen proof that he can put everything together at Black Desert. Even at +3500, I’m leaning Hat Tip and willing to let DT beat me this week.

Kevin Yu
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (108), PUTT (101)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 24/4/31/16
BOU Results: 15 (67-69-63-72, 2025)
Comp Results: 3/16/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Yuuuuuu feels like something might be hiding under the surface this week. He’s #2 in my model with a profile built for Black Desert—3rd in Birdie or Better, strong throughout the key proximity ranges, top-15 in par-5 scoring, and gains OTT and on Approach in four straight starts. He also showed the ceiling here last year, sitting T3 through 54 holes after a Saturday 63 before a final-round 72 knocked him outside the top 10. The encouraging part is he did that despite an inconsistent approach week, an area of his game that’s been considerably better lately. The putter remains the obvious question, but we’ve seen enough spikes recently to know it’s capable of cooperating, including an elite performance at the Wyndham where he finished fourth. Yu has now put himself near the first page of the leaderboard multiple times recently and continues to flash extremely low rounds, including a 62 Saturday at the Biltmore. At the same +3500 as Davis Thompson, I prefer Yu as the pivot. The #2 model ranking, current ball striking and unfinished business at Black Desert are enough for me to get involved this week.

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Course Preview

Black Desert Resort
Ivins, Utah

• Field: 120 Players

  • Defending Champion: Michael Brennan

  • Both former champions return: Brennan (2025) & Matt McCarty (2024)

• Format: 72 Hole Stroke Play

• Cut: Top 65 and Ties

• Purse: $6,000,000 | FedExCup Points: 500

• Course Designer: Tom Weiskopf & Phil Smith (2023)

  • Weiskopf’s final course design

• Par 71 | 7,421 Yards PGA Tour

  • Plays shorter at roughly 3,000 feet of elevation

• Desert-style course surrounded by black lava rock, wide fairways, large greens & elevation changes

  • Plenty of room off the tee, but misses into the lava can quickly become costly

• Three Par 5s + two drivable Par 4s

  • Five key scoring holes put a premium on Birdie or Better and taking advantage of opportunities

• Go Low or Get Left Behind

  • Winning Scores: -23 (2024) | -22 (2025)

  • Both champions won by 3+ shots

• Approach Play Matters

  • 61% of approaches came from 125–200 yards in 2025

  • 150–175 and 175–200 yards were the two most common ranges

• Course History Showing Repeatability

  • McCarty: WIN (2024) → T3 (2025)

  • Jaeger: 2nd (2024) → T11 (2025)

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Recent Tournament History

2025: Michael Brennan -22 (67-65-64-66); 4 Stroke Victory over Rico Hoey
2024: Matt McCarty -23 (62-68-64-67); 3 Stroke Victory over Stephan Jaeger

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdie-or-better %
Shots Gained: Approach 125-200

Tier 2

Total Driving
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Greens-in-Regulation
Strokes Gained Putting: Bentgrass

Tier 3

Shots Gained: Around-the-Green
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring

Champ’s Course Comps

La Quinta Country Club
Golf Club of Houston
TPC Scottsdale

Tournament Trends

Odds

Winner
0-25: 0
26-50: 1
51-100: 1
101+: 0

Top 5
0-25: 0
26-50: 8
51-100: 1
101+: 4

Top 10
0-25: 0
26-50: 10
51-100: 3
101+: 7

Betting Favorites (Odds: Result)
0-15: MC
15-20: 15/37/MC/MC
20+: 11/11/25

Winner’s Strokes Behind Leader By Round
R1: 2/2 (100%) within 2 shots (0/2 led)
R2: 2/2 (100%) within 2 shots (1/2 led)
R3: 2/2 (100%) led after 54 holes

Winner’s Lead-In Form
2/2 (100%) at least 2 Top 5 finishes in last 4 starts
2/2 (100%) with a WIN in their last 4 starts
1/2 (50%) Top 5 finish in their last start

Winner’s Tournament History
2/2 (100%) WON on DEBUT

First Round Leader Splits
AM: 2025
PM: 2024

Early Models

Early Top 10

Doug Ghim
Kevin Yu
Davis Thompson
Jackson Suber
Beau Hossler
Zecheng Dou
Jordan Smith
Seamus Power
Davis Chatfield
Sudarshan Yellamaraju

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Final Models

Biltmore Champ Top 10

Doug Ghim
Mac Meissner
Jackson Suber
Kevin Yu
Davis Thompson
Beau Hossler
Ryo Hisatsune
Zecheng Dou
Nick Taylor
J.T. Poston

Bets

Win
Davis Thompson +2500 - 1.55u
Ryo Hisatsune +3000 - 1.30u
Jackson Suber +5000 - 0.65u

Hat Tip
Jackson Koivun | Jacob Bridgeman | Ben James

Top 20
Jackson Suber +200 - 1.5u

First Round Leader
Ryo Hisatsune +5000 - 0.25u
Davis Thompson +5000 - 0.25u

First Round 3-Balls
Doug Ghim -110 > Cameron Champ | Lanto Griffin - 1.5u
Ryo Hisatsune +160 > Corey Conners | Nico Echavarria - 1u

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Davis Riley

DFS Chalk

Jackson Koivun
Jacob Bridgeman
Blades Brown
Eric Cole

DFS Pivots

Ryo Hisatsune
Doug Ghim
Jackson Suber
Taylor Pendrith

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Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds at Bovada as of 10:00AM EST
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Nicklaus Results: Results on Jack Nicklaus Design PGA Tour Tournaments

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Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (128), ARD (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, APP 150175, SCR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/9/30/26
Nicklaus Results: 2/13/21/28/31/33/34/61/MC
Insights: Bridgeman checks nearly every box statistically outside of longer approach and around-the-green play. He’s gained on approach in 10 straight starts, off the tee in 6 of his last 7, with the putter in 6 straight, and around the green in 4 of 5. He also closed the playoffs with back-to-back Top 10s and currently sits 29th in the OWGR and 23rd in DataGolf. The problem is simply the price. At +1800, he’s already being treated like one of the clear favorites, and I expect him to be extremely popular in DFS as well. His runner-up at the 2025 Cognizant is encouraging on a Nicklaus design, but it remains his only Top 10 across the comps listed here. Hat Tip territory for me — if he wins, he wins, and we move on without the investment. One wrinkle worth monitoring: Bridgeman ranks 73rd of 81 in early Round 1 scoring but 2nd in late Round 2 scoring among players with data this week. If he opens slowly Thursday, a live number Thursday night or Friday morning could be much more interesting than +1800 pre-tournament.

Jackson Koivun
Odds: +1400
Stats: N/A
Top 75% Rank: N/A
Top 25% Rank: N/A
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 24/29/31/1
Nicklaus Results: 52
Insights: There’s no denying the ceiling. Koivun has gained off the tee and on approach in four straight starts, sits 65th in the OWGR and 29th in DataGolf, and has already won seven times in 2026 — six at Auburn and once on TOUR at the 3M Open. The ball-striking has remained consistently positive since that breakthrough, even if the approach numbers haven’t quite reached the level we saw during the win. The concern at +1400 is that we’re paying a premium while the short game remains less predictable. He’s gained around the green and putting in only 4 of his last 7 starts, with just one putting gain over his last three. His lone Nicklaus-design result came at the 2024 Memorial, where he went 72-76-78-80, but that version of Koivun is hardly comparable to the player we see today. A 4th at Silverado during last year’s fall swing is probably more relevant to this setup. At +1400, I need almost everything to line up. The tee-to-green profile says he absolutely belongs near the top of the board, but with limited course-design history and a sporadic putter, I’m more interested in respecting him than forcing the price. Compared with Bridgeman, Koivun has the higher outright ceiling for me, but he’s also asking you to pay even more for projection.

Davis Thompson
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (112), PUTT (128), BOB 150175 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 150175, APP 175200, PROX, BS, BA, P3, P4
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 14/8/7/MC
Nicklaus Results: 2/21/27/27/39/47/49/51/56/60/63/MC/MC
Insights: Thompson’s profile is one of the more interesting ones on the board. He ranks Top 25% this week in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, total driving, approach, GIR, proximity, ball-striking and par-3/par-4 scoring. He also gained 3+ true strokes on approach in his last start, an extremely rare threshold, and approach has been elite in two of his last three with OTT also above average or better in two of three. The concern is the short game. Since May, Thompson has gained putting in only 3 of 9 starts and around the green in just 2 of 9, which has kept strong ball-striking weeks from turning into real contention. His Nicklaus-design history is also fairly ordinary outside of the 2023 American Express runner-up, where only one round came on the Nicklaus Tournament Course. Still, +2800 is much more appealing than the prices at the very top. If Biltmore gives us some John Deere / Sedgefield-style characteristics, the fit gets stronger, and when I simplify the model to tee-to-green, Bent/Poa putting, short courses and approach proximity, Thompson ranks 1st. I’m not fully across the line yet, but this is the first name of the three that feels like a legitimate outright decision rather than a respect-and-move-on profile.

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Clubhouse Member’s Unlock:
Corey Conners, Doug Ghim, Ryo Hisatsune, Johnny Keefer,
Mac Meissner, Jackson Suber, and Kevin Yu!

Corey Conners
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 150175, P3, P5
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 150175, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/20/39/14
Nicklaus Results: 4/12/14/20/21/22/25/26/31/39/41/44/49/50/54/54/55/59/65/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Conners still owns the profile we expect — strong tee-to-green play, quality total driving and approach upside — and one surprising wrinkle is that he ranks 8th in this field on Bent/Poa putting. The problem is that once I narrow the model to the stats I care most about this week, he starts sliding instead of climbing. The recent form has been inconsistent. Travelers was the last time he gained across the board and remains his only full-category gaining week of 2026. He’s lost on approach in 2 of his last 3 starts, around-the-green play has been uneven, and the strong putting run was snapped at Memphis. His Nicklaus-design history is also more respectable than convincing, with only 4 Top 20s in 26 starts. At +2800, I’d rather pay for a profile that is either trending harder or fits the week more cleanly. Conners has enough pedigree to pop, but this feels like name value at a top-of-board price more than a number I need to chase. For me, Davis Thompson is the much more interesting +2800 option.

Doug Ghim
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PUTT (90), BOB 175200 (113)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, APP 150175, APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 19/15/MC/MC
Nicklaus Results: 5/11/16/29/21/33/35/35/48/54/59/60/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Ghim might be the biggest stats-versus-results disconnect on the board. He ranks 1st in this field in tee-to-green, par-4 scoring and overall, while also sitting Top 5 in OTT, total driving, GIR, ball-striking, around-the-green/scrambling average and bogey avoidance. DataGolf has him 58th in the world while the OWGR still sits at 157th, which tells the story pretty well. The frustrating part is that the results haven’t matched the numbers — only two Top 10s this season and no playoff berth — but the recent trend is encouraging. His best approach performance of the year came in his last start, his best OTT performance came the week before, the putter has gained in 4 of 6 and around-the-green play in 6 of 8. He also owns a Top 5 at the American Express and multiple Top 20s at PGA National on Nicklaus designs. The +2800 number is the problem. That’s a steep price for a player still looking for his first professional win since his Texas days in 2018, but the statistical case is strong enough that I want some form of Ghim exposure this week. If I can find a better market than the outright, that may be the cleaner way to attack it.

Ryo Hisatsune
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (114), SCR (128), ARD/SCR AVG (110), PUTT (108), BOB 175200 (116)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, SCR
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB 200+
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 12/52/MC/50
Nicklaus Results: 10/11/18/18/43/44/47/52/60/MC/MC
Insights: Hisatsune continues to look like one of the cleaner upside profiles on the board. He has gained off the tee in all but two starts this season and on approach in 10 of his last 12, which has repeatedly put him in position to contend. The results back that up: 2nd at Farmers, 10th at Phoenix, 8th at Pebble, 8th at Valero and 9th at the Deere. The obvious weakness remains the short game, especially putting. He gained on the greens at BMW for only the second time in 11 starts, but that may actually be the point — he doesn’t need a spike week with the putter, just something close to field average. If that happens, the tee-to-green game is already good enough to win. The Nicklaus-design history also gives me confidence, with a Top 10 at Barracuda, T11 at the American Express and additional Top 20s at Harbour Town and the PGA Championship. At +4000, this is the first number on the board where I feel like the price is giving us something back. I’m comfortable with exposure across markets and think the outright is absolutely in play.

Johnny Keefer
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 1/4, APP 1/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/60/MC/59
Nicklaus Results: 27/69/MC
Insights: Keefer’s season-long ball-striking profile is better than the recent results suggest. He ranks Top 25 in this field in OTT, total driving, GIR, proximity and ball-striking, with Top 50 tee-to-green numbers overall. The problem is that the short game has been carrying too much of the load, and the recent SG form is rough — just one OTT gain and one APP gain across his last four starts. The upside is real, though. He finished 3rd at the Scottish, 3rd at Houston and T9 at Byron Nelson, and the Scottish result came with gains across the board. That shows what the ceiling looks like when everything clicks. The issue is frequency: only three Top 20s on the season and a recent form line of MC/60/MC/59. At +3500, I don’t love him as a core outright, but I do think he makes sense as a boom-or-bust exposure piece. He feels more attractive in short-term markets or DFS, where one spike round can matter, and I doubt ownership will be high. A small sprinkle is reasonable, but I wouldn’t build the week around him.

Mac Meissner
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude TD (117), OTT/TD AVG (103), BS (105), BOB 150175 (125)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 150175
Top 25% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, BS, BOB 150175
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: MC/26/MC/30
Nicklaus Results: 4/46/53/63/68/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Meissner grades extremely well this week, sitting 2nd overall in my model and Top 10 in tee-to-green, approach buckets, proximity, around-the-green, scrambling average, birdie-or-better, bogey avoidance and par-3/par-4/par-5 scoring. The underlying profile is balanced, and his around-the-green play has been especially consistent since July. The concern is recent form. He arrives off MC/26/MC/30, with approach and putting losses in his last start at Wyndham. Before that, though, he had back-to-back OTT gains and putter gains in 5 of 6, so the profile hasn’t completely fallen apart. His 4th at the 2024 Barracuda is the lone real Nicklaus-design result that catches my eye. At +3500, the number feels a little short relative to the recent results and win equity. I like him as a DFS pivot and would be interested in a favorable three-ball, but I’m comfortable holding off on outright exposure unless the price drifts.

Jackson Suber
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude PUTT (123), BOB 150175 (105)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 22/50/MC/28
Nicklaus Results: 7/42/63/MC/MC
Insights: Suber checks a lot of boxes this week, ranking 4th overall in my model and Top 5 in tee-to-green, approach, 200+ approach, proximity, birdie-or-better and BOB average. He also grades Top 25 in GIR, ball-striking and par-3/par-5 scoring, giving him one of the cleaner statistical profiles in this price range. The issue is recent form. His putter has gone cold in three straight starts and the approach game cooled late in the season as well. I thought the late Sunday position at the John Deere might be a springboard, but that ended up being his final Top 20 of the season. He does have a 7th at Barracuda on a Nicklaus design, so the fit is not a concern. At +4500, the number is fair and I can make a case for placement exposure, but I’m not quite there on the outright. DFS darling, placement candidate, outright watchlist feels like the right lane for now.

Kevin Yu
Odds: +3500
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (122), SCR (113), PUTT (102)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+
Top 25% Rank:TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 150175, BS, BOB, BOB 150175, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/31/16/24
Nicklaus Results: 3/9/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Kevin Yuuuuuuu checks plenty of statistical boxes this week, ranking 5th overall in my model and Top 5 in approach from 150–175 yards and birdie-or-better. He also grades Top 25 in tee-to-green, off-the-tee, total driving, GIR, ball-striking, multiple BOB buckets and both par-4/par-5 scoring. The recent profile is steady rather than spectacular. He’s been around field average on approach over his last four starts, above average off the tee in three straight, and the putter finally spiked at Wyndham with his best performance of 2026. His Nicklaus history shows both sides of the profile — 3rd at the 2024 American Express and 9th at the 2024 Cognizant, but also five missed cuts. At +3500, I wish we were getting something closer to the 50s. There’s enough upside here to like him in DFS or short-term markets, especially knowing a low round can absolutely show up, but for me this lands more in the Hat Tip / DFS category than the outright card.

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Course Preview

The Cliffs at Walnut Cove
Arden, North Carolina

• Par 71, 7,249 yards

  • Jack Nicklaus Signature design

  • Located just south of Asheville in the Blue Ridge Mountains

  • Set against the Blue Ridge Mountains and Pisgah National Forest

  • Elevation changes create uneven lies and adjustments to playing yardages

    • Playing at 2,200 Feet of Elevation so will play around 7,000 Yards

  • Bentgrass Greens

    • Lot of Rain so expecting softer conditions

    • Nicklaus Design usually on Faster Speed Side

  • Kentucky Bluegrass Rough

    • Report last week been grown to nearly six inches (Golfweek)

• Inaugural Biltmore Championship Asheville

  • First PGA TOUR event at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove

  • First PGA TOUR event in the Asheville area in more than 80 years

  • No previous TOUR leaderboards or Strokes Gained data to lean on

• 132-player field

  • Top 65 and ties cut after 36 holes

  • First event of the FedExCup Fall

• Driving

  • Nickalus Design means Generous Fairways but Penalize for missing

  • Shorter course should open path off the tee

  • Potential Risk/Reward for Longer Hitters

• Approach

  • Expecting a majority of mid to long iron approaches this week

  • Nickalus Design so precision on Distance Control

• Par 3s

  • Five par 3s

  • All measure 190 yards or longer

• Par 4s

  • Nine par 4s

  • Five measure 450 yards or longer

• Par 5s

  • Four par 5s

  • All measure between 535 and 568 yards

• Around the green

  • Elevation and green complexes could make misses more difficult than the raw numbers suggest

  • Flyovers suggest bunkers, some water and rough when players miss greens (YouTube Flyover)

• Putting

  • Bentgrass with some Poa presence

  • Contoured Nicklaus green complexes should put a premium on finding the correct sections

  • Average Sq. Feet Size not available but Nicklaus design usually 5,000-6,500

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Recent Tour Championship Results

None - Debut Event for 2026

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Key Stats

Tier 1

Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green
Shots Gained: Approach
Total Driving
Birdie-or-Better Percentage

Tier 2

Approaches from 150+ yards
Approach Proximity
Bent/Poa Putting
Par 4 Scoring

Tier 3

Bogey Avoidance
Par 5 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring
Jack Nicklaus Design

Course Comps

Muirfield Village Golf Club
Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood)
Valhalla Golf Club

Tournament Trends

Debut Event No Trends This Week

Early Models

Biltmore Champ Top 10

Doug Ghim
Davis Thompson
Mac Meissner
Jackson Suber
Kevin Yu
Beau Hossler
Zecheng Dou
Seamus Power
Nick Taylor
J.T. Poston

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Champ vs Sammy One-and-Done

Sony Open in Hawaii: Champ Winner (Kitayama vs Horschel) +13,595
The American Express: Champ Winner (Taylor vs Bezuidenhout) +20,056
Farmers Insurance Open: Sammy Winner (N Hojgaard vs Schauffele) +92,640
WM Phoenix Open: Champ Winner (Matsuyama vs Spieth) +1,046,400
Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Champ Winner (Day vs Hovland) +122,250
Genesis Invitational: Sammy Winner (Fleetwood vs SWKim) +494,200
Cognizant Classic: Sammy Winner (Lowry vs Gerard) +648,800
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sammy Winner (Henley vs McIlroy) +702,000
Puerto Rico Open: Sammy Winner (CKim vs R Hojgaard) +27,640
THE PLAYERS: Champ Winner (Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa) +2,725,000
Valspar Championship: Sammy Winner (Koepka vs Hovland) +108,290
Texas Children’s Houston Open: DRAW (Koepka vs Coody)
Valero Texas Open: Champ Winner (Aberg vs Thorbjornsen) +378,525
Masters Tournament: Sammy Winner (Scheffler vs Rahm) +2,328,750
RBC Heritage: Champ Winner (Henley vs Thomas) +120,625
Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Sammy Winner (Novak vs Penge) +91,631
Cadillac Championship: Champ Winner (Scheffler vs Rose) +2,120,916
Truist Championship: Champ Winner (Scott vs SWKim) +116,486
Myrtle Beach Classic: Sammy Winner (TKim vs Eckroat +85,840
PGA Championship: Sammy Winner (Fowler vs Hatton) +29,218
CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Sammy Winner (Blades vs Hisatsune) +87,379
Charles Schwab Challenge: DRAW (Im vs Fowler)
The Memorial Tournament: Sammy Winner (M Fitzpatrick vs Young) +40,333
RBC Canadian Open: Sammy Winner (Clark vs Burns) +121,193
US Open: Champ Winner (Fleetwood vs Rahm) +405,862
Travelers Championship: Sammy Winner (Burns vs Thomas) +130,000
John Deere Classic: Champ Winner (Gotterup vs Brown) +1,397,000
Scottish Open: Sammy Winner (Hatton vs Cantlay) +123,750
ISCO Championship: Sammy Winner (Kohles vs Hodges) +63,000
Open Championship: DRAW (Morikawa vs Gotterup)
Corales Puntacana Championship: Champ Winner (CKim vs Jaeger) +8,680
3M Open: Sammy Winner (Conners vs Homa) +36,520
Rocket Classic: DRAW (Knapp vs Griffin)
Wyndham Championship: Sammy Winner (Noren vs Thompson) +102,850

Champ Wins Money Title by $3,161,360
Sammy Wins Weeks Won Title by 5 weeks, 18-13-4

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Clubhouse Members Unlock Final Stats Model, Top 10 Model, Bets, Fade & DFS tips!

Final Models

Tour Championship Top 10

Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Si Woo Kim
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Alex Smalley
J.J. Spaun

Bets

Win
Rory McIlroy +900 (boosted to +1080) - 2u
Sam Burns +1400 - 1.5u

Hat Tip
Scottie Scheffler | Xander Schauffele | Collin Morikawa

First Round Leader
Rory McIlroy +1200 - 1u
Robert MacIntyre +2500 - 0.50u

First Round 3-Balls (-0.5) Leans (no bets)
Robert MacIntyre +120 > Viktor Hovland
Alex Smalley -105 > Alex Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay -150 > Kristoffer Reitan
Gary Woodland +105 > Ryan Gerard
Rory McIlroy -105 > Xander Schauffele
Wyndham Clark EVEN > Cameron Young
Scottie Scheffler -175 > Matt Fitzpatrick

Additional Stats/Info

Fade of the Week

Alex Fitzpatrick

DFS Chalk

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Cantlay

DFS Pivots

Sam Burns
Chris Gotterup
Viktor Hovland
Russell Henley
Adam Scott

Leave a comment

Legend:
Odds: Betting Odds as of 10:30 EST on Monday, August 24th at Bovada
Stats: Non Filtered Season Stats
Top 75% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 75% in the Field
Top 25% Rank: Stats where Player Ranked in Top 25% in the Field
SG Gains: Number of weeks where played Gained in that Strokes Gained Statistic
OTT 4/4 = Gained Off The Tee in 4 of his last 4 starts/weeks/tournaments
FORM: Results from a players last 4 starts
Tour Champ Results: Finishes at the Tour Championship
Comp Results: Finishes at following courses: Muirfield Village Golf Club, TPC River Highlands & Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (130), SCR (102), BOB 175200 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, SCR
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, APP 200+, PROX, BS, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/7/9/MC
Tour Champ Results: 21/16 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 3/5/16/22/24/24/25/27/36/39/55
Insights: Sweeedd arrives at East Lake with a profile that still looks dangerous on paper, but I’m struggling to find enough recent evidence to justify the +1600 price. He’s elite in several of the categories that matter this week, ranking 1st in the field in Approach from 200+ yards, 4th in Proximity, 5th in GIR and Birdie or Better, 6th in Total Driving and 9th in Tee to Green. The problem is that the individual pieces haven’t come together at the same time. His approach play has continued to decline since the beginning of July, while last week’s loss Off the Tee was only his second of the season. He did bounce back on the greens at the BMW after losing strokes in his Tour Championship debut, but now we’re waiting for the irons to provide that same spike. East Lake hasn’t exactly been kind to Åberg either. He opened with a T8 last year before sliding backward each round, including losing more than two strokes on Sunday to finish T16. He did gain Off the Tee at East Lake and has shown the ability to contend on similar setups, with a 3rd at the API this year and a T5 at Muirfield Village two years ago, but for a player whose biggest weapons are supposed to be driving and long irons, the recent ceiling simply hasn’t been there. Even with gains across the board at the Open and St. Jude, those performances only produced T7 and T9 finishes. With every player starting at even par and several names entering in better form, I see Åberg starting at a disadvantage this week. I’ll have some interest in round matchups, but at +1600 I’m happy to let others bet on a ceiling we haven’t seen in more than three months.

Wyndham Clark
Odds: +1600
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (88), OTT/TD AVG (78), GIR (85)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS
Top 25% Rank: ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P3, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 1/5/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 8/3 (8 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 2/3/5/9/12/15/17/22/29/34/35/37/56/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Hotels comes into East Lake with as much momentum as anyone in the field after winning the BMW Championship last week, his third victory in his last 10 starts. What was once a quiet season has completely changed with 8 top-15s, 6 top-5s and wins at the Byron Nelson, U.S. Open and BMW Championship. He showed exactly what makes him dangerous at Bellerive as well, grinding through a difficult Sunday before closing with three straight birdies to win by three. With a win this week, Clark would control his own destiny in the FedExCup and add another major piece to an already incredible turnaround. East Lake has also treated him well. Clark gained across the board in both previous appearances, including above-average approach play each time and positive Off the Tee numbers. He finished 2nd after the opening round and sat T4 at the halfway point in his 2024 appearance, while his 2023 debut included the 3rd-best round of the day on Sunday. The course history, recent form and comp results all line up, with a runner-up at the API, 3rd at Muirfield Village and a top-five at the Travelers. At +1600, Clark enters this week without having to prove anything—he’s already shown he can beat the best players in the world when the stakes are highest.

Rory McIlroy
Odds: +900
Stats: Top 75!! exclude PROX (93), SCR (77), P5 (80), LR1 (83), LR3 (142)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, PROX, P5, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 3/66/40/7
Tour Champ Results: 23/9/4/1/14/8/1/7/1/16/2/10 (34 of 48 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2020)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/4/5/5/6/6/7/7/8/10/10/11/11/12/13/15/15/17/18/18/19/21/27/32/57/WD
Insights: Rory heads back to East Lake as arguably the most comfortable player in the field at this venue, and last week’s BMW Championship only reinforced the idea that his game is rounding into form at the right time. After looking like he was playing second fiddle to Wyndham Clark for most of Sunday, Rory found something late, going 3-under over a four-hole stretch to tie the lead with seven holes remaining. He had opportunities to take control from there, but the putter never quite cooperated. Still, a 3rd-place finish against this field was another positive step after using the St. Jude Championship to knock off some rust. With just 13 starts this season, a second win of the year and a fourth Tour Championship would be a fitting way to cap the schedule. And then there’s East Lake. Rory has 48 rounds here, three wins, a runner-up and an absurd amount of low-round upside. He’s shot 65 or better five times, including a 64 in the opening round in 2020, a 63 in the third round in 2022 and a 64 in the final round of his 2016 victory. He’s also posted 11 of 12 opening rounds in the 60s, nine of 12 in the second round and seven of his last nine fourth rounds in the 60s. The recent concern is around-the-green play and last year’s putting, but historically those have been far from enough to keep him from dominating this course. Add in his elite driving, 2023 runner-up at the BMW and a win at Bay Hill in 2018, and there are plenty of reasons to believe another fast start is coming. At +900, I’m expecting Rory to be a major factor again this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put himself in position to chase another East Lake victory.

Xander Schauffele
Odds: +1400
Stats: Top 100! exclude PROX (130), P3 (111), LR3 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PROX, BOB, P3, LR3
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, BS, SCR, P5
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 26/7/2/18
Tour Champ Results: 4/2/4/5/2/2/7/1 (27 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 62; FRL: 2019)
Comp Results: 1/8/11/13/13/14/14/14/18/19/20/24/24/24/25/25/29/39/40/51/61/MC/MC
Insights: Xander comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong from tee to green, but the short game continues to be the deciding factor. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in four straight, with the latter two weeks still above average even after the spike at the Rocket Mortgage where he finished runner-up. The concern is everything around those two areas, with losses Around the Green in two straight and putting losses in four of his last six, including last week at the BMW. That’s kept him from putting together four complete rounds despite showing plenty of upside, including three straight Sundays of 69 or better and a 65 at the St. Jude. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Schauffele has been elite here throughout his career, gaining in every start and posting eight finishes of 7th or better, including a win in 2017. He’s gained on Approach and Off the Tee repeatedly at this course, with 84% of his 32 rounds in the 60s and eight rounds of 65 or better, including a 62 on Sunday. His Round 1 history is particularly strong with seven of eight opening rounds in the 60s, while he has posted five straight sub-70 Sundays. The starting-strokes format has arguably worked against him at times so, everyone on level ground has him circled with interest. At +1400, I’m more interested in short-term exposure through Round Matchups, First Round Leader Market and Daily Fantasy while watching the short game before getting involved on the outright.

Scottie Scheffler
Odds: +320
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 175200 (80), APP 200+ (53), PROX (72), BOB 175200 (89)
Top 75% Rank: Across All Key Metrics
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/1/2/4
Tour Champ Results: 4/1/6/2/22/5 (17 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2024)
Comp Results: 1/1/1/1/1/2/3/3/4/4/6/11/12/13/15/22/24/47/MC/MC
Insights: Scottie comes into East Lake with basically the exact profile you want, and I’m willing to throw last week in the trash. Even hand, foot and mouth disease could only stop him from beating 35 other players over 72 holes, and only eventual winner Wyndham Clark topped him over the final 54 holes after Scottie opened with the 2nd-worst round of the day while clearly not at full strength. With the health news, I think that’s enough to cross off last week and focus on the bigger picture. He’s 1st in Tee to Green, GIR, Ball Striking, Scrambling, BOB, BA, Par 4 and LR2, with 18 of 27 tracked categories inside the Top 5, while gaining OTT and Approach in four straight. East Lake is where the confidence really comes in. This will be Scottie’s 7th straight Tour Championship, and he’s gained on the Greens in back-to-back years after four straight losses while posting 17 of 24 rounds in the 60s, including eight straight entering this week and a low of 63 last year. His 2024 run was ridiculous, going 65-66-66-67 to win by four with the starting-strokes handicap, while he’s also the comp god this week with two wins at Bay Hill, two at Muirfield and damn near a second win at TPC River Highlands if not for a missed Monday playoff putt against Viktor. At +320, there’s obviously not much value hiding in the outright, but keep in mind that nobody outside the Top 4 in the DataGolf rankings has won this event since 2019 (Scottie, Rory, Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick) under that trend. Single bet on Scottie won’t gather much moss or build many farms, but you could turn on the television on Sunday and know you got action cooking with Schef.

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Akshay Bhatia
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, LR2
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BA, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PUTT, BOB 175200
SG Gains: OTT 0/4, APP 3/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 12/68/MC/MC
Tour Champ Results: 13/26 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s.; Low: 66)
Comp Results: 1/5/5/16/22/54/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Akshay makes his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, but the formula for him is pretty simple: as the OTT goes, so does Smokeshow, and East Lake is a place where that will reign supreme again. Unfortunately, he’s only had three top-10 finishes in his last 13 starts going back to Augusta, with the recent MCs at the Rocket and last week both tied heavily to losing off the tee. He has shown spike weeks on Approach at the Rocket, U.S. Open and last week, while the putter was nuclear early in the season, helping him grab his biggest win at the East Lake comp that is Bay Hill. He’s proven he can beat elite fields with four top-10s and three top-5s this season, including TPC River Highlands five starts ago, but the path to another spike week likely requires the Approach and putter to carry him while getting something from the tee. East Lake has at least shown some encouragement, with Akshay going 5-for-8 in the 60s last year and sitting T10 entering Sunday before finishing T13, a huge improvement from his 2024 debut where he only broke 70 once. Last year he was field average OTT and putting but above average on Approach and Around the Green, which is probably the profile he needs again this week. At +9000, I’m not completely dismissing him because we’ve seen the ceiling, but the lack of consistency off the tee is a pretty major question mark on a course where the fairway sets up everything else. If the driver cooperates, the price gets interesting quickly; if it doesn’t, I’m afraid we get another long week for Akshay.

Jacob Bridgeman
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 200+ (139), ARD (113)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, OTT, OTT/TD AVG, APP, GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 200+, P5, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, P4, LR2
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 9/30/26/28
Tour Champ Results: 27 (67-67-75-71, 2025)
Comp Results: 15/18/31/34/47/52
Insights: Bridgeman comes into East Lake with the putter finally showing signs of life, gaining in seven of his last eight and helping him post his first top-10 since March last week while gaining across the board for the second time in his last four starts. The Approach has been the more reliable piece with nine straight gains, although only one of those has been better than a half-stroke, so the upside there has been limited. We saw both sides of that last week, with Bridgeman ranking 48th in Approach on Friday before bouncing all the way back to 4th on Saturday and finishing 24th on Sunday. The bigger question is whether he can put all four pieces together, but with OTT, Approach, Around the Green and Putting all gaining in three of his last four, there are finally some signs that the complete week could be coming. East Lake is where the concern comes from, but also where I think there’s some sneaky upside. Bridgeman opened his debut last year with back-to-back 67s and was in the mix for a top-10 before a disastrous weekend sent him to the back of the field, including significant losses on Approach and the Greens. His comp-course résumé is still looking for a top-10, with T15 at Bay Hill his best finish, but the fact that he’s already shown he can score around East Lake matters. At +5000, I think he’s an intriguing play because I don’t expect many to be on him, and while it could certainly be a bumpy ride, the pieces we need are starting to move in the right direction. If the putter stays hot and the Approach finally produces one of those spike weeks, Bridgeman has enough elsewhere to make this price interesting.

Sam Burns
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (118), BOB 175200 (103)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 175200, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PROX, PUTT, BOB, P4, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/3/3/12
Tour Champ Results: 7/12/9/24/18 (15 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 66, 4 times)
Comp Results: 4/9/12/12/13/15/16/17/17/24/30/36/43/48/49/50/54/55/81/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Sam Burns comes into East Lake as the 3rd-ranked player in DataGolf (see Scottie insights for trend of note) and 9th in the OWGR, and the ball-striking has been trending exactly where you want it, particularly on Approach where he’s gained in four straight and has been one of the elite players in the field since the beginning of June. The putter was only field average last week after four straight above-average performances, while OTT and Around the Green have been a little more of a rollercoaster, but I see those as tweaks rather than an overhaul. The form is also about as strong as you can find for a player still searching for that elusive win, going 28-3-3-12-2-20-4 over his last seven starts, including a top-5 at Bay Hill where he was in the final pairing and just missed the playoff after a brutal lie late Sunday. He’s also coming off another near-miss against Scottie at the St. Jude, going 67-70-62-73 to finish just two back. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Burns is making his 6th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach in each of his last three here, gained on the Greens in four of five, and has consistently gained Off the Tee and Around the Green as well. He’s now shot 9 of his last 11 rounds in the 60s after putting four straight in the 60s here last year, including a 66 on Sunday, and has finished inside the top 12 in four straight appearances. The one thing still missing is the ceiling, as he hasn’t broken 66 in 20 rounds at East Lake, and I suspect that’s going to be necessary to finally get that elusive win. At +1800, I’m interested, especially after being happy to fade him as a popular play last week. He reminds me a lot of Tommy last year — repeatedly getting right there and coming up just short. Maybe 2026 comes full circle and Burns gets it done this week.

Patrick Cantlay
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 17520 (120), PUTT (95), BOB 175200 (97), LR2 (89), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, PUTT, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 2/12/8/28
Tour Champ Results: 2/17/5/7/1/21/21/20 (19 of 32 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/3/4/4/4/5/7/11/12/12/13/13/14/15/15/17/24/30/31/32/35/36/MC/MC/MC
Insights: PC comes into East Lake with the game clicking at the right time, gaining Off the Tee and Approach in four straight and posting three top-8s in his last four starts. The only real blemish has been the putter, with back-to-back losses after elite spikes in three straight starts, including both playoff events, four of his last six and five of his last eight. There are some Billy Horschel vibes here — great run through the playoffs without getting the wins — but Cantlay finally gets a price that reflects the form rather than the name. After sitting in the low 30s last week and easily cashing each-way tickets, +1800 feels much more reasonable for a player who isn’t exactly a bettor’s favorite but doesn’t need to be. The ball-striking is in a great place, and if the putter simply gets back to neutral, I think he’s going to be a major factor. East Lake is where I think the upside gets really interesting. Cantlay is making his 6th straight Tour Championship and 9th overall, and he’s consistently been elite on Approach here while showing above-average OTT play, with Around the Green and Putting the only real areas needing improvement. He’s gained on the Greens before, including last year, and has shown he can go extremely low in Atlanta with four of eight opening rounds in the 60s and a low of 64, while 19 of his 32 career rounds here have been in the 60s. Last year he was 3rd after Thursday and co-led after 54 before the short game imploded Sunday, so we know the ceiling is there. Add two wins at Muirfield Village and multiple top-5s at TPC River Highlands and the comp profile makes sense. I’m leaning FRL over the outright personally, but at +1800 the exposure conversation has definitely changed — the game is clicking, the price finally caught up, and a win here would end a drought dating back to the 2022 BMW.

Alex Fitzpatrick
Odds: +8000
Stats: Top 125 exclude PUTT, BOB 175200, LR3
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, P4, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, BS
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 0/4
FORM: 44/61/61/71
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/7
Insights: A Fitzmagic comes into his Tour Championship debut with the ball-striking numbers to compete but a scoring profile that makes him extremely difficult to trust at +8000. He ranks inside the Top 25% in Approach, Proximity, Ball Striking and several OTT metrics, but sits last in the field in BOB, BOB 175-200 and BOB AVG while also near the bottom in Putting, Par 4 and LR3. The current form isn’t helping either, with four straight finishes of 44th or worse, back-to-back Approach losses and five straight putting losses, including six of his last seven. The summer was impressive with back-to-back wins, but that stretch came back in June and he’s limping toward East Lake compared to the player we saw earlier in the season. The Tour Championship debut and unfamiliar East Lake greens only add to the concern. Fitzpatrick has never played here, and when you combine that with the scoring deficiencies and a putter that has completely abandoned him, I think there are simply too many questions to overlook. His comp-course results of 6th and 7th show the ceiling is there, and this has been far from a disappointing year for Alex or the Fitzpatrick family, but the current trajectory and season-long profile make him a pretty natural fade candidate. Nothing personal, just business — Alex is going on the fade list, and judging by how many subscribers will be rooting against me being right, this could very quickly become a subscriber favorite.

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude OTT (55), PUTT (60), BOB 175200 (108)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude BOB 175200
Top 25% Rank: TG, APP, GIR, APP AVG, BS, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P3, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 28/12/MC/3
Tour Champ Results: 9/15 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64; FRL: 2022)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/5/9/9/10/13/14/17/22/27/27/31/36/36/41/49/68/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: M Fitzmagic comes into East Lake with a profile that is still extremely strong on paper, with only nine of our tracked season metrics outside the Top 25%, but the current form is making it difficult to trust all four rounds. The putter has been the consistent piece, gaining in four straight, while OTT and Approach have been much more volatile. Last week was a perfect example: he opened with a 65, ranking 3rd in Approach and 6th Tee to Green, before falling off a cliff Friday with the 2nd-worst OTT performance and dead-last Approach round in the field. The weekend didn’t get much better with both areas near the bottom again despite the putter staying warm. That’s been the story lately — spikes for a round or two, but not enough consistency to stay within striking distance. East Lake is at least a place where we’ve seen the upside. Fitzpatrick is back at the Tour Championship for the first time since 2023, when he flirted with the top 10 all week after opening with a co-leading 64 but couldn’t maintain it, and he gained OTT, Around the Green and Putting in both of his previous appearances. He’s also got four top-5s on the comp courses, although the best three came 6-7 years ago, so let’s not get too carried away with the Fitzmagic time machine. The Travelers win this year gives me plenty of reason to like the setup, and his season-long profile remains strong enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if he spikes again. At +2000, though, I’m not fading him, but I’m not betting him either. If Fitzmagic comes out Thursday and he’s sitting atop the leaderboard again, I’ll tip my cap, but until the OTT and Approach stabilize, I’d rather hold him off my lineups than chase the next spike.

Tommy Fleetwood
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 100! exclude APP 175200 (105), BOB 175200 (113), LR1 (117)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 175200, P4, LR1, LR3
Top 25% Rank: TG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, BA, P3, P5
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/7/4/13
Tour Champ Results: 1/20/6/16/11 (12 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 2/3/4/10/10/11/13/14/15/16/20/20/26/46/49/61/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Tommyyyyy comes into East Lake with a profile that still screams contender on the right side of the card, ranking inside the Top 6 in the field across every one of his Top 25% categories while gaining Off the Tee in three of four and Approach in four straight. The problem is the recent form and the putter, which has been cold since his ridiculous run at Royal Birkdale, with only one gain in his last four. Last week was especially concerning as he lost OTT, Around the Green and Putting for the first time in six starts, although he still managed two rounds in the 60s before 74-70 on the weekend. It feels very different from the version that arrived at East Lake last year off a T3 at St. Jude and T4 at the BMW, and I’m not sure we can bank on another massive spike simply because it happened last year. East Lake is obviously where the temptation comes from. Fleetwood has gained OTT and Approach in all five of his appearances here, Around the Green in four of five and the Greens in four of five, and last year’s 64-63-67-68 was an absolute elite spike that produced his first Tour Championship win. He’s making his 4th straight appearance and 6th overall with 12 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a low of 63, so the comfort level is undeniable. The comp résumé is strong too, but at +1800 I’m not sure we’re getting the right price for the version of Tommy arriving this week. Could he find the magic again? Absolutely. But at 18/1, this is one where we smile if it happens rather than allocate money to make sure we’re part of the entertainment.

Ryan Fox
Odds: +9000
Stats: Top 125 exclude BA, P5
Top 75% Rank: OTT, APP 200+, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 47/58/1/30
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 14/17/20/24/27/30/66/MC
Insights: Ryan Fox comes into East Lake as the No. 30 player in the field and The Open Champion, but the profile is a little too volatile for me to get carried away at +9000. The longer course should suit him, and he ranks well in some of the scoring metrics, but accuracy with the driver around East Lake is no small concern with this rough. He’s gained Approach in eight of his last nine, while OTT has been much more of a rollercoaster and the putter has gone cold since his Birkdale win, including losses OTT and Putting last week. With only two rounds in the 60s since the Open and a Tour Championship debut ahead, I think the driver will tell the story for me this week. The comp-course résumé doesn’t give me much reason to force it either, with no top-10s and a T14 at Bay Hill back in 2023 his best finish. That said, there’s something interesting about getting Fox into an event where everyone starts from scratch and he gets to play spoiler as the No. 30 seed, especially with Top 10 ranks in BOB 175-200, LR1 and LR4. I’d rather target him selectively than make him a full-week bet — if the current form looks good, a Round 1 sprinkle makes sense, or I’m perfectly happy waiting to see where the number is for Round 2/4. Daily Fantasy is also interesting simply because I doubt many will be on the Kiwi. There’s upside here, but no need to overdo the Fox exposure this week.

Ryan Gerard
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (123), ARD/SCR AVG (106), BOB 200+ (101), LR1 (102)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB 200+, LR1
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/MC/8
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 2/23/44/54/MC
Insights: Ryan Gerard comes into East Lake with a profile that is good at most things but elite at nothing, which is a tough place to start when we’re dealing with the best 30 players on Tour. He’s the first player I’ve profiled without a Top 25% category in the field, and his best season metrics — TD, PUTT, BOB, P4 and LR2 — only translate to 11th, 8th, 12th, 13th and 15th here. The current form does give me something to work with, gaining OTT and Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has shown three elite spikes in his last 10 starts. The Memorial runner-up proves he can hang on a big-boy track, but the Approach has been mostly average since July and the putting has been too inconsistent to trust week after week. East Lake is a different animal, and with this being his debut, I’m not looking to force much at +4500. We’ve seen the ceiling when the pieces line up, but even with near-elite OTT play in two of his last three starts, he’s gone 16-24-MC because the Approach and Putting haven’t followed. Last week was another example, going 39th-3rd over the first two rounds before squandering it, including a 40th on Approach in Round 2 and never cracking the Top 25 in Approach for a round. At +4500, I think the number is tempting enough to at least acknowledge the upside, especially if you believe another putting spike is coming, but I’m not seeing enough here to make him a priority outright. If anything, this is a player I’d rather target for a Round 1/DFS dart than commit to for four rounds, and at this price I’m comfortable letting someone else chase the spike.

Chris Gotterup
Odds: +2200
Stats: Top 75!! exclude APP 175200 (117), APP 200+ (77), PROX (114), APP AVG (81), LR2 (80)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TD, APP, APP 175200, PROX, APP AVG, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, BOB 175200, BOB AVG, P3, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 4/30/MC/18
Tour Champ Results: 10 (70-63-69-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 18/27/30/35/61/MC/MC
Insights: Gotterup comes into East Lake with the driver in a really good place, gaining Off the Tee in four straight and showing elite upside there since his win at the John Deere, but the rest of the game has been much more of a rollercoaster. The biggest concern is Approach, particularly the longer irons, where the profile doesn’t stack up with this field, and missing both fairways and greens around East Lake is not going to make life easier. He lost on Approach last week but was bailed out by an elite putting performance, which isn’t a dice roll I want to rely on week after week. He did gain across the bag at the St. Jude but only managed a T30, while his recent Approach numbers have been all over the place. The ceiling is absolutely there — three wins this season on three different types of venues and a sneaky top-5 last week — but getting all four rounds to cooperate remains the question. East Lake is at least a place where we know he can score. Gotterup made his Tour Championship debut last year with a 70 before exploding for a 63 on Friday, moving inside the Top 10 and just six back entering the weekend, before finishing T10 after three of four rounds in the 60s. His T18 at Bay Hill is his best comp finish, so the course history isn’t screaming at us, but there’s enough here to believe another spike is possible. At +2200, I’m not ready to completely dismiss the outright given the season he’s having, but I prefer the shorter-term angles. First Round Leader and Round Matchups are where I’d rather have exposure, with the +2200 outright more of a dark-horse dart if you want to get some value in the 20-range.

Russell Henley
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 200+ (146), BOB 200+ (143)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude TG, TD, APP, APP 175200, APP 200+, APP AVG, BS, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 12/30/20/9
Tour Champ Results: 2/4/14/3/12 (14 of 20 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2025)
Comp Results: 1/2/4/5/6/6/6/7/11/12/13/16/19/19/22/27/29/32/33/45/48/49/53/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Russ comes into East Lake with the putter in a really good place, gaining in seven of his last eight starts, but the rest of the profile is a little harder to trust at +2500. Approach has been around field average since his win at Colonial, maybe a tick better but nothing close to the level needed to separate in this field, while Around the Green has been a consistent negative with losses in six of his last eight. OTT has been more of a rollercoaster, with spikes at the St. Jude and Travelers but not enough consistency to justify the price and popularity. The season-long numbers also tell a similar story, with Scrambling, Putting, Ball Avoidance, Par 4 and LR4 his only Top 25% categories in this field. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Henley is making his 4th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained here repeatedly, with 14 of 20 rounds in the 60s and a ridiculous low of 61 last year when he opened as the FRL and co-led into the weekend. He’s also finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last four appearances, including T2 last year, and has shown he can get hot late with a 62 on Sunday in 2024 and a 65 that was the low round of the day Sunday in 2017. The comp résumé is strong too with a win at Bay Hill, T2 at TPC River Highlands and a Top 5 at Muirfield Village that included an FRL last year. At +2500, I understand the appeal because the East Lake history is undeniable, but I’m struggling to pay this number with the Approach and Around the Green trending the wrong way. I’d recommend staying on the sidelines or short term slips over the full outright ticket.

Viktor Hovland
Odds: +2800
Stats: Top 100! exclude LR1 (134)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, GIR, APP 200+, BA, P4, P5, LR1, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, P3
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/19/MC/13
Tour Champ Results: 12/12/1/15/5/20 (19 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 63 twice)
Comp Results: 1/1/2/3/10/11/13/15/20/25/29/36/40/42/47/48/49/51/54/WD/MC
Insights: Viktor Hovland comes into East Lake with a profile that still makes plenty of sense, especially at +2800 for a player who is still under 30 and already a Tour Championship winner. He’s making his 7th straight appearance and has gained Off the Tee and Approach in all six starts here, Around the Green in four of six and Putting in four straight, with 19 of 24 rounds in the 60s. The weekend scoring is particularly impressive, with 11 of his last 12 weekend rounds in the 60s and five straight Sunday rounds in the 60s, including two 63s. The current form is a little more of a mystery, though, with a T13 last week after a strong Friday where he was 2nd in Approach and 4th putting before falling into the 40s in Approach over the weekend and struggling across the board Sunday outside of the Greens. That’s the good and bad of Viktor right now — the price is appealing because we know the ceiling is there, but he could also put himself behind the pace early. East Lake is where I keep coming back for the confidence. Hovland won here in 2023 by five with the handicap after sharing the low score without it, and he’s repeatedly shown an ability to make a run late with 131 weekend scores in both 2024 and 2025. Add the Muirfield Village win and the Monday playoff victory over Scottie at TPC River Highlands this year, and the comfort level on the comp courses is pretty clear. At +2800, I’m not ready to dismiss him, especially with the combination of current upside and ridiculous East Lake history. I’ll have some placement/FRL exposure, but I also don’t hate waiting to see where he sits after 36 holes. You’ll take a hit on the odds, but if Viktor puts another slow start together, I’d rather pay up for evidence than force it early.

Si Woo Kim
Odds: +2500
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude APP 200+ (57), PUTT (106), LR1 (72), LR4 (62)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: TG, OTT, APP, APP 175200, APP AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 33/2/42/6
Tour Champ Results: 20/10 (4 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 65)
Comp Results: 4/9/10/11/13/13/15/18/19/25/26/26/29/30/31/31/39/41/44/49/63/64/74/MC/MC
Insights: SWK comes into East Lake off a stellar statistical season, sitting 5th in the FedExCup and 11th in DataGolf, with Top 25% numbers across nearly every key ball-striking and scoring category. He’s gained Off the Tee in three straight and Approach in four straight, while Around the Green has been a positive in three of four, and the comp profile makes plenty of sense with three top-10s at Bay Hill, including this year. This is exactly the type of setup where Si Woo’s length, long irons and ball striking can shine, and the current form has shown the ceiling with a runner-up at the St. Jude and T6 at the Travelers. The only real concern is the putter, which ranks well down the field and has been the weakest part of the profile all season. East Lake is where I have a harder time getting there at +2500. This is only his 3rd Tour Championship appearance and first since 2023, with gains in only 50% of his East Lake starts Off the Tee and Approach, although he has gained on the Greens and Around the Green in every appearance. He did backdoor a Top 20 in 2023 with 68-66 on the weekend and showed the ability to close here on debut in 2016 with a Sunday 65 that vaulted him from T20 into the Top 10. The upside is absolutely there, and I’ll be rooting for him to cap off a great statistical season with a win, but the lack of reps around East Lake combined with a price that hasn’t really moved from the last few weeks is where I’m getting off the Si Woo train. Happy to tip my cap if he gets it done, but I’m not forcing the exposure.

Tom Kim
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 100! exclude BOB 200+ (135), LR4 (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, OTT/TD AVG, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, BA, P4, LR2, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 28/12/5/20
Tour Champ Results: 20 (67-70-72-67, 2023)
Comp Results: 2/34/38/43/45/52/MC/MC
Insights: Tom Kim comes into East Lake after a clutch run down the stretch to get himself back into the Tour Championship for the second time, and the current ball-striking gives him at least something to work with. He’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Approach in 13 consecutive starts, although the Approach number finally dipped a bit last week. Around the Green has been a rollercoaster all year, while the putter has been inconsistent as well, so seeing three straight putting gains is at least a welcome sign. His season profile is actually pretty strong in Approach, GIR, Proximity, Scrambling, Ball Avoidance and Par 4 scoring, but there isn’t much separation from the field in the areas that tend to create the big spikes. East Lake is where I struggle to see the path. Kim is making his 2nd Tour Championship appearance after finishing 20th in his 2023 debut, where he gained on and around the Greens but couldn’t put together enough elsewhere to contend. The comp résumé is even thinner, with a runner-up at TPC River Highlands — yes, the one where he lost to Scottie in the playoff and the protest/wedge situation did absolutely nothing to help my bet that week — as the only real result worth mentioning. At +5000, I appreciate the price and the fact that he’s already accomplished a lot by getting back here, but I just don’t see enough here to expect much this week. He’ll need another level of Approach and a sustained putting spike to beat this field, and I’m not willing to bet on that happening for four rounds.

Min Woo Lee
Odds: +6000
Stats: Top 100! exclude GIR (112), PROX (121), LR1 (128)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PROX, APP AVG, BS, BA, P4, LR1
Top 25% Rank: OTT/TD AVG, ARD, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 47/55/59/2
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/9/44/49/62/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: MWL comes into East Lake as another player limping toward the finish, with three straight losses on Approach and none of the above-average OTT or Putting play we saw earlier in the playoff run. That’s a major concern for a player whose season profile is built around the driver, Around the Green and birdie-making, especially when the Approach, GIR and Proximity numbers already leave him toward the bottom of this field. The runner-up at the Scottish Open show the ceiling is absolutely there, while the T6 at Bay Hill gives him at least one strong comp result this year, but most of the better work came earlier in the season. Right now, the form simply isn’t matching the player we saw when he was at his best. East Lake is another layer of uncertainty with this being Min Woo’s debut. The comp résumé is thin beyond the T6 at Bay Hill, with the next-best result being the 2023 Travelers, and the current stretch makes it difficult to expect another spike against this field. At +6000, the number is tempting but I’m comfortable letting him cook other lineups and bank accounts this week. The driver and putter would need to return to their playoff form while the Approach needs a complete turnaround, and that’s too many things I need to go right at once.

Robert MacIntyre
Odds: +4500
Stats: Top 125 exclude APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG
Top 75% Rank: OTT, OTT/TD AVG, ARD, SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, LR2, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: PUTT, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 7/WD/28/3
Tour Champ Results: 17/17 (5 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 64 twice)
Comp Results: 10/11/16/17/20/24/36/MC
Insights: Return of the Mac comes into East Lake after a solid week following the withdrawl at the St. Jude, losing only a little Around the Green while gaining Off the Tee, Approach and Putting. He’s now got three top-10s in his last five starts and has gained on the Greens in six of his last seven, while last week marked his best OTT performance since April. The question is whether that was the start of something positive or simply another flash from a player who has been inconsistent for much of the year. His season profile actually has plenty to like, with strong OTT, Around the Green, Scrambling, Putting, BOB and late-round numbers, and we’ve seen the ceiling as recently as TPC River Highlands five starts ago where he finished inside the top 10. East Lake is where I can see the argument for a little exposure. This is his 3rd straight Tour Championship appearance, and he’s gained Off the Tee, Around the Green and Putting in both previous starts. He opened last year with 64-66 and sat just three back after Friday before a brutal Saturday dropped him out of contention, while his debut in 2024 featured a Sunday 64 that backdoored him into the Top 20. There’s enough history here to believe he can score, but at +4500 I’m not looking to force the outright. A little DFS and a Round 1 matchup makes sense, and I don’t think a Top 10 placement is out of reach if the good version of Bobby Mac shows up. Sometimes that’s what we value at the Clubhouse — betting on the player we know he can be rather than simply reading directly from the stat sheet.

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: +3000
Stats: Top 75!! exclude OTT (95), OTT/TD AVG (81), GIR (90), BS (78), PUTT (82), BOB 175200 (88), BOB 200+ (98)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, BOB 200+, BOB AVG
Top 25% Rank: APP 200+, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 1/4
FORM: 28/7/7/5
Tour Champ Results: 29/9/11/26/15/9/4/26/5/12/22 (20 of 44 Rds 60s; Low: 63; FRL: 2016)
Comp Results: 1/5/6/6/8/12/13/13/14/16/18/20/21/22/22/23/30/33/38/41/43/45/45/49/56/62
Insights: Hideki comes into East Lake with the Approach game continuing to be the reason I can’t completely quit him, gaining in eight of his last 10 starts and producing another elite spike last week. The driver has also quietly come around with seven straight gains, but the short game has been the issue, losing both Around the Green and Putting in each of his last two starts and ending a run of four straight top-10s. Last week the irons finally woke up after a sleepy opening round, but the putter was cold all week and the short game again kept him from turning another strong ball-striking week into a real result. At +3000, there’s still enough number here to make the temptation real, especially with the way he continues to tease me throughout the year, but the question is whether we’re betting on the player or waiting for all the pieces to finally click at the same time. East Lake gives me some history but not enough confidence to call it a strength anymore. Deki is making his 12th Tour Championship appearance and 3rd straight, with a first-round lead in 2016 and a low of 63 in 2022, but he’s lost on the Greens in four of his last five starts here and has gained on Approach in only half of his last four. His best finishes are getting further into the rearview mirror, while even the comp résumé is built more on older results, although a win at Muirfield Village is certainly nothing to shake a stick at. He’s also shown the ability to bounce back from terrible rounds — 76-69, 77-65, 75-66 and 75-68 — so I’m not completely dismissing the possibility of another Hideki spike. There are better East Lake histories and more consistent current profiles in this field, and I’m leaning toward last week being the final betting stop for me this year… but if you know me, I may just have to dabble one more time. Check back tomorrow.

Collin Morikawa
Odds: +2000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (139), ARD/SCR AVG (112)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude SCR, ARD/SCR AVG, PUTT, BA
Top 25% Rank: TG, TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, BS, BOB, BOB 175200, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P5, LR2, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 2/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 4/52/18/3
Tour Champ Results: 19/2/6/21/26/6 (15 of 24 Rds in 60s; Low: 61; FRL: 2023)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/5/9/13/20/36/42/48/64/WD/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Collin comes into East Lake with one of the strongest ball-striking profiles in the field, and the Approach game is once again doing the heavy lifting. He’s gained on Approach in four straight and Off the Tee in six straight, while ranking top 5 in the field in Approach, GIR, Ball Striking, BOB and multiple scoring categories. The concern is everything around that elite iron play, with Around the Green losses returning in five of his last six and the Greens continuing to be a weakness at East Lake, where he’s lost putting in four of six starts. The encouraging part is that the putter has been warmer recently, and if he can simply avoid giving those gains away around the greens, the rest of the profile is more than good enough to contend. East Lake is where the confidence comes from. Morikawa is making his 7th straight Tour Championship appearance and has gained on Approach and Off the Tee in all six previous starts, with a 61 to open 2023 and the low 72-hole score in 2024 when he went 66-63-67-66. He’s also got the type of comp résumé I want to see here with a win at Muirfield Village, two runner-ups there and another runner-up at Bay Hill, while last year’s T3 after Thursday shows how quickly he can put himself into the mix. The 2025 version is the concern after falling from T3 after Round 1 to outside the top 20, but he arrives off a T4 at the BMW with strong ball-striking and a better putter. At +2000, this feels like the kind of price where I’m willing to give Morikawa another look. If the putter stays respectable and the short game doesn’t become the story, the path to another East Lake run is very clear.

Kristoffer Reitan
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, P3, LR2
Top 75% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, GIR, BS, ARD, PUTT, BOB 200+, P5, LR1, LR3, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 1/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/58/18/MC
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 6/22
Insights: Kristoffer Reitan comes into East Lake without a single Top 25% ranking, and playing as a debutant makes the profile even tougher to trust. His season has been driven largely by Off the Tee and Putting, but neither has been reliable enough to make me comfortable against this field, while the Approach game has gone backwards with losses in four of his last five starts. He’s still looking for his first top 10 since the Memorial, and while the two wins this year at the Truist and Nedbank along with four PGA Tour top 10s prove there is plenty of talent here, those spikes have generally required the Approach game to show up rather than simply leaning on the putter. First time around East Lake is the biggest issue for me. His comp résumé is only a T6 and T22, and asking him to beat this group at +6500 while relying heavily on the putter and driver feels like a top-20 hope rather than a true contender. We saw the Approach spike at the Truist and Muirfield Village that helped create this season, but I’m not expecting that to suddenly become the baseline this week. At +6500, I’m happy to fade and pay to see it — if he finds another spike week, congratulations to those who got there, but I’d rather look for a Round 1 or DFS angle than force outright exposure.

Justin Rose
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude SCR, BOB 175200, LR2
Top 75% Rank: TD, APP, GIR, APP 175200, APP AVG, BS, PUTT, BOB, P5, LR1, LR4
Top 25% Rank: None
SG Gains: OTT 2/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 22/39/MC/25
Tour Champ Results: 21/26/4/10/2/4/6/2/20/15/11 (28 of 44 Rds in 60s; Low: 65; FRL: 2012)
Comp Results: 1/2/2/2/3/3/3/4/6/8/8/8/9/9/9/12/13/13/13/14/15/19/24/25/30/36/44/56/63/68/68
Insights: JR comes into East Lake as another player without a single Top 25% ranking, but unlike some of the other players in that group, there is still plenty of quality in the underlying profile. He sits top 10 in the field in Approach and Ball Striking and top 15 in Driving Accuracy, GIR, Approach from 175-200 and Late Round 1 scoring, while the irons have been elite over his last two starts. The issue is getting everything else to cooperate, with the putter cooling last week and Off the Tee and Around the Green remaining inconsistent since the U.S. Open. At +5000, the number is interesting for a player with this much East Lake history, but I don’t need to dip into the Rose fund this week without seeing more current-form evidence. East Lake is where the argument for Rose gets much stronger. He’s making back-to-back Tour Championship appearances after not playing here since 2019, with two runner-ups and seven of 11 Round 1s in the 60s. He’s finished inside the top 10 here even when the putter hasn’t cooperated, including a T2 in 2018 after sitting just one back into the weekend and another T2 in 2012 after leading into Sunday. The Memorial win and multiple strong Bay Hill finishes also fit the profile, but the Around the Green game needs to get back toward field average if he wants to turn another East Lake top-20 type week into a top 10. For me, this is more of a Daily Fantasy or Round 1 matchup look than an outright at +5000. The history is strong enough to respect, but the current form hasn’t given me enough reason to expect the full Rose package for four rounds.

Adam Scott
Odds: +5500
Stats: Top 100! exclude ARD (105), PUTT (104)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 175200, APP 200+, PROX, APP AVG, P5, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 16/12/9/66
Tour Champ Results: 4/25/6/8/9/14/19/6/27/26/1/7/21 (30 of 52 Rds in 60s; Low: 65 5 times)
Comp Results: 2/3/3/4/4/5/9/11/12/12/13/13/16/19/25/26/29/30/30/31/31/33/35/35/36/39/41/46
Insights: Adam Scott comes into East Lake with enough ball-striking form to understand why he’ll be a trendy pick this week. He’s gained Off the Tee and Approach in three of his last four, while the putter has also shown signs of life during the playoffs, and the season profile is stronger than the price might suggest with top-25% numbers in GIR, Approach from 175-200, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Par 5 scoring and Late Round 4. The Around the Green game remains the obvious weakness, but this is a player who has quietly put together two top 6s in his last three starts and seven top 10s overall this season. At +5500, I understand the appeal and think there’s enough here to take a closer look rather than simply dismissing the 45-year-old. East Lake is where the real intrigue comes in. Scott has 52 rounds here with six top-10 finishes and a win in 2006, along with five other top-5s, so there is absolutely a path even if the most recent strong finish came back in 2019. He opened 2024 with 66-67-68 and sat just five back entering Sunday, while his 65 on Sunday in 2019 nearly produced another top 5. The history also shows how quickly he can get into contention, with 10 of 13 opening rounds in the 60s and seven of 13 Sundays in the 60s. At +5500, this is one where I can see the argument for a placement or DFS exposure, especially if the playoff ball-striking carries over. The question is whether the Around the Green game can stay out of the way, but if it does, Scott has more East Lake equity than most of this price range.

Alex Smalley
Odds: +6500
Stats: Top 100! exclude P3 (123), LR4 (107)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude ARD, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, P4, LR3
Top 25% Rank: GIR, APP 200+, APP AVG
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 4/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 3/4
FORM: 16/24/7/53
Tour Champ Results: DEBUT
Comp Results: 9/38/47/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Alex Smalley comes into East Lake with a profile that is quietly strong where it matters most, ranking top 10 in the field in GIR, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average and Par 4 scoring. He’s gained Approach in four straight and Around the Green in three of four, while the putter has also gained in three straight, making the 16-24-7 stretch through the first three playoff events more interesting than the ugly 53 last week. The concern is Off the Tee, where he’s been closer to field average, along with poor late-round scoring numbers that make me much more interested in how he starts than how he finishes. If the driver finds the form we saw earlier this season, the elite Approach game gives him enough ceiling to make some noise. The unknown at East Lake is both the appeal and the concern. This is Smalley’s debut, so there’s no course history to lean on, while his comp résumé is limited to a T9 and a lot of misses. We’ve seen the formula work before, though, with the 2023 Travelers T9 coming from above-average OTT, elite Approach and a field-average putter. At +6500, I’m intrigued enough to get involved but not enough to blindly trust four rounds. I’d much rather play the first-round matchup and see what the game looks like before adding more exposure. An each-way or Top 10/Top 20 sprinkle is interesting, but if the driver shows up early, that’s when I’ll decide whether Smalley deserves more of the bankroll.

J.J. Spaun
Odds: +4000
Stats: Top 100! exclude SCR (122), PUTT (132), P5 (108), LR2 (129)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP 200+, SCR, PUTT, BA, P4, P5, LR2, LR4
Top 25% Rank: APP 175200, PROX, BOB 175200, LR1, LR3
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 3/4, ARD 4/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 22/34/50/40
Tour Champ Results: 25 (68-71-71-66, 2025)
Comp Results: 7/12/14/30/30/41/47/37/49/52/52/63/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
Insights: JJS comes into East Lake looking much better in spots than his recent finishes suggest, but the consistency just hasn’t been there. He’s gained Off the Tee in three of his last four, Approach in three of four and Around the Green in all four, while the putter produced his 2nd-best performance of the season at the Travelers. The problem is the pieces haven’t arrived together — he gained across the board at the Open but finished T40, opened 67-67 at the Rocket before posting 142 on the weekend, and sat 3rd into the BMW weekend before 72-73 dropped him down the board. At +4000, that’s enough to make me interested, but not enough to trust him for 72 holes when the recent results continue to tell the same story. East Lake is another reason I’m leaning toward shorter-term exposure. Spaun made his debut here last year and went 68-71-71-66, with that Sunday 66 showing there is some scoring upside, while his T7 at TPC River Highlands this year gives him another comp result to work with. But with only one start here and no top 10 since June, I’d rather bet on the player hiding inside the round-by-round numbers than the final results. +4000 is tempting, but I’m leaning First Round and Matchups over the outright. He’s a potential DFS strategy play because most of the field will look at the recent finishes, while the round scores suggest he’s closer than the results indicate.

Gary Woodland
Odds: +5000
Stats: Top 125 exclude ARD, P3, P5
Top 75% Rank: All exclude APP, ARD, ARD/SCR AVG, BOB, BOB 200+, P3, P5, LR2
Top 25% Rank: OTT, TD, OTT/TD AVG, APP 200+, LR1
SG Gains: OTT 3/4, APP 2/4, ARD 1/4, PUTT 4/4
FORM: 4/42/10/MC
Tour Champ Results: 15/11/19/10/9/22/13 (13 of 28 Rds in 60s; Low: 63)
Comp Results: 3/5/5/6/16/20/20/21/22/23/24/27/33/36/36/38/48/49/52/57/63/71/MC/MC/MC
Insights: Garyyyy comes into East Lake with one of the more interesting comeback stories in this field, and honestly, if there were ever a Comeback Player of the Year case, it has to start here. He’s coming off a T4 and T10 in two of his last three starts, gained in all four putting rounds last week and ranks 1st in the field in Late Round 1 scoring while sitting top 25% in OTT, Total Driving and Approach 200+. The driver has been the biggest weapon, and even last week he was able to stay in contention despite not having his best Sunday off the tee. The Around the Green and scoring profile keeps me from going all-in, but there is enough here to believe this version of Gary is capable of doing more than simply making up the numbers. East Lake gives me another reason to take a look. This is his 8th Tour Championship appearance but his first trip around East Lake since 2019, and he’s got four top-6 finishes here — although all came between 2017 and 2022 — including a T3 after Round 1 in 2018 and multiple backdoor pushes from strong weekend rounds. He has never put three rounds in the 60s here, but he’s also shown the ability to find a low one, including a 63 in 2014. At +5000, I’m not jumping on the full-tournament ticket, but I recommend grabbing some exposure. Round matchups and DFS make sense to me and another guy to slim down in the short-term bucket.

Cameron Young
Odds: +1800
Stats: Top 50!!! exclude PUTT (113), BOB 200+ (54), P5 (59), LR4 (78)
Top 75% Rank: All exclude PUTT
Top 25% Rank: All exclude APP, GIR, PUTT, BOB, BOB 200+, BOB AVG, BA, P3, P4, P5, LR2, LR3, LR4
SG Gains: OTT 4/4, APP 2/4, ARD 3/4, PUTT 2/4
FORM: 37/39/61/8
Tour Champ Results: 4/19 (6 of 8 Rds in 60s; Low: 62)
Comp Results: 3/9/10/13/25/36/46/47/50/52/60/60/MC/MC
Insights: CY comes into East Lake with one of the strongest statistical profiles in the field, ranking top 5 in Total Driving, OTT/TD, Approach 200+, Proximity, Approach Average, Scrambling, Around the Green and Late Round 1 scoring. The problem is the timing, with the playoff run showing a clear drop-off, particularly with the irons and putter, while he’s gained Off the Tee in four straight and Around the Green in three of four. That’s the frustrating part at +1800 — the season-long profile screams contender, but the current form makes me want a little more number before fully buying in. Still, this is the same player who won twice in Florida, nearly won The Open and has put himself firmly into the Player of the Year conversation, so I’m not willing to completely dismiss him. East Lake gives me enough confidence to keep him in the mix. Young finished 4th last year after a 19th on debut, opening with a 129 thanks to the low round of the day on Friday with a 62 and putting himself just two back into the weekend before a Saturday 71 knocked him off pace. He’s also got three top-10s on the comp courses, led by a Bay Hill result this year, so there is a clear path for the profile to work. The issue is simple: he’s shown two great Sundays here but has struggled on Saturdays, and he’ll need four good rounds to win this thing. At +1800, the current form makes it a hat tip over a betting tip. Possible? Absolutely. Bettable? Ehh.

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